Open House Report: 245 West 99th Street #16A

cute home. they've done a nice job making it somewhat appealing to prewar lovers.

Hilarious.. like Benny Hills in drag. 16A paid $3.3MM 4yrs ago... and if they achieve $3.3MM that represents "stabilization". No a sale price of $3.3MM means they just pissed away $200K in renovations and by some quirky miracle of NYC Financial stupidity a new "owner" pays peak BUBBLE PRICES with only 5yrs left on the tax abatement... meaning the "new" new prepaid renters will be the stooppidest financial mofos this side of las vegas gambaholic. $3.3MM plus $4.5K monthlies..... I'm sure inondada can find a nice 4bdrm condo for less than $8.5K/month => someone is carrying $3.3MM for $4K. I'd like to meet the nimrod that does that.

"but a lot of ppl enjoy living there"... huh? I guess on average most ppl hate living in their apartments.

w81 - Why should the politics of the seller have a single thing to do with the sale? If you think they should then only in that a potential buyer should go from door to door to set up a collection. "Did you know your neighbors politics? Contribute to my buying fund and we can make sure the wrong-thinking people are moved from the building. $10,000 per apartment should do it."

On the other hand, the progressive thinking zoning board has given all the buyers a gift in that they have guaranteed their views for decades (at least).

(The sunsets they have really will be remarkable, and the best part of the view. I don't think seeing more of the river is worth $500,000 more than the sunsets. I used to have those sunsets. I miss those sunsets. Still, if the views are worth that much you can get better ones for a fraction in Washington heights, Riverdale or Yonkers. Yes , yes, they are in those places, please don't tell me something I don't already know. But the views are better - no construction on those parts of the Palisades.)

w81 doesn't care for the view

W67: After the first resale at 245 West 99th (#7C), I predicted a free-fall, with Extell undercutting resales, services deteriorating and owners scrambling for the exits by the end of 2010. I was wrong - nothing happened. There was a brief stalemate during the financial crisis; then Extell cut prices on the remaining inventory, buyers showed up and subsequent resales suggest a modest rebound.

Is a free-fall still possible? Absolutely. Do I personally like Ariel? Not much. Would I pay $3MM for a view of water tanks? Probably not. At some point, though, you have to look at what real people in the market are doing and say, "My prediction of imminent disaster was wrong."

Yuck. That place simply reeks of bad taste. They've taken a sleek, modern, open plan apartment and attempted to convert it into some kind of Hamptons beach house in the sky. And the furniture/finishes look cheap, cheap, cheap. And don't get me started on the ubiquitous use of that weird blue color, which is not the sort of color one should use in large doses. I suspect that this condo had much better/tasteful finishes when it was new- the price needs to reflect the fact that a significant investment will be required to undo the damage incurred by the current owner.

based on w 81 numbers.

sell for $2.9 million---lose $400 K.
commision---lose $100 K
upgrades --- lose 100 K

lose 600K over 48 months.

cost per month: $3,000 + $12,500 + $2,800 (modest opportunity cost on $3.4 million @1%) = $18,300

even without inonada---seems like you could score a pretty nice place for that kind of rent.

That's OK; the -600 from this one is offset by the +600 on their previous place.

I kind of like the lilac(?) color. At least they had fun with the place and did what they liked rather than the same old tack of thinking about resale. Anybody buying would get new paint and blinds anyway, and the style of the LR built-ins is easy to change.

uwsmom: The view is excellent. I just don't think rooftops pack as much pricing power as water. In any case, the listing only claims open city views, which these certainly are.

hejiranyc: Maybe I lack taste. In person, I thought the apartment was very nice. Didn't love the furniture, but that's not in the deal.

AvUWS: The celebrity-seller info was gratuitous. I agree that neither her politics nor his inability to throw a deep out is relevant to this discussion.

W81, what is moderate traffic in your book?

Exactly cc.

W67 understands you'd like your mom's $28k bought in 1977 c9 on uws to stay at $4mm, but seriously. Picking out a-rod's sale and declaring the bubble popping over iz too self serving, no?

Look the trend is down. And we haven't even begun bottoming.

columbiacounty
41 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse based on w 81 numbers.

sell for $2.9 million---lose $400 K.
commision---lose $100 K
upgrades --- lose 100 K

lose 600K over 48 months.

cost per month: $3,000 + $12,500 + $2,800 (modest opportunity cost on $3.4 million @1%) = $18,300

even without inonada---seems like you could score a pretty nice place for that kind of rent.

w67thstreet
8 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse Exactly cc.

W67 understands you'd like your mom's $28k bought in 1977 c9 on uws to stay at $4mm, but seriously. Picking out a-rod's sale and declaring the bubble popping over iz too self serving, no?

Look the trend is down. And we haven't even begun bottoming.

when does the circle jerk begin fellows?

W67: After the first resale at 245 West 99th (#7C), I predicted a free-fall, with Extell undercutting resales, services deteriorating and owners scrambling for the exits by the end of 2010. I was wrong - nothing happened. There was a brief stalemate during the financial crisis; then Extell cut prices on the remaining inventory, buyers showed up and subsequent resales suggest a modest rebound.

Is a free-fall still possible? Absolutely. Do I personally like Ariel? Not much. Would I pay $3MM for a view of water tanks? Probably not. At some point, though, you have to look at what real people in the market are doing and say, "My prediction of imminent disaster was wrong."

pay attention west67. "real people in the market" not stupid parroting chimpanzee's like you

I like the decor. It says FU to the covention of a symbyotic relationship between architecture, style and balance.
It says I live on the upper westside Gadamit! You are going to be prewar because I say so!
Don't confuse me with facts...my mind is made up.
Your decor should always be an extension of your inner self.
Job well done.
I predict a fast sale.

just like all the real people who bought across the country of whom 25% are now underwater? are those real people too?

I love nwt's logic. Why should the japanese be the only country hit by nukes? One for Israel. One for Iran. One for nyc. One for Moscow.

Give one take one. It'll all EVEN out in the end.

Like the fking $500k lifetime social security check cashing 90yo who out in $30k into the pot! 'i paid INTO it!!!!!' u fking floorplan masturbating ninny.

next time i'll use capitals.

columbiacounty
2 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse just like all the real people who bought across the country of whom 25% are now underwater? are those real people too?

sure, let's compare the real estate markets in alabama and nyc. apples to apples right?

how long does 67 allow you to take your hands off his penis so you can type cunty?

falco - i agree.

Every time I jog by in Riverside Park and see the bldg, it makes me a little unhappy. Could there have been something more contextual? Absolutely. The prices that this building fetched and continue to get, speaks to the deep buyer pool for this part of the UWS. They want new, amenities and have the ability to pay.

I lived in their shadows and also jogged a lot in the park. I don't think about their context at all. if someone wants to build em and buy em that is what NYC (until the last couple of decades) has always been about. There are lots downtown that have been razed and built over 6 or 7 times. THAT was what NY used to be about!

As we lose that and try to make a museum of the NY each generation felt was theirs, we move towards the day when NY becomes like Paris or Florence, a once powerful center of finance and innovation that is now boiled down to some tourist attracting neighborhoods that struggles to maintain its relevance in the industries it once dominated while no longer able to be relevant in any new ones.

We haven't reached that point yet, but we keep trying, one zoning rule at a time.

i think it's interesting that the A line has a third bathroom off the foyer instead of a larger kitchen. I would prefer the opposite. the kitchen is small.

From the photos, I gotta say--not loving the finishes. I'm a strong believer in decor/interiors 'playing well' with a building's architecture/age/style. In this case, it appears the owner is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole--trying to turn a sleek, modern space into a prewar, retro charmer.

Yes, the moveable objects won't convey and the overdone blue paint can be covered. But the built-ins and kitchen are part of the deal, and their fluffy, French-country look simply doesn't 'go' with the space's structurally spare feel.

It will be interesting to see where this one winds up. My first impression is that it'll have to be cut to under $3M before it gets any serious interest. Perhaps then buyers will be able to look past the owner's questionable reno choices.

I take back some of what I said of the views. I hadnt looked at the pictures. I just figured they would be better. My old apartment (on the 13th floor) cleared this one by at least a floor. Chalk one up for the high ceilings, but that does make a difference.

Sniff, I still miss the old place and its terrace, but with a 3rd on the way one simply must move on.

CC, WTF on your numbers -- you going soft? If only it were that pretty.

Bought for $3.3M, let's say sold for $2.9M. That's $400K.

Transaction costs, more like $300K. Fat mortgage, so full tax there, plus developer's transfer taxes, etc.

Common charges & highly-abated taxes, $140K.

Then there's the small matter of $2.6M in loans with an interest rate of 5.35%. That's $556K, tax benefit back for $86K for the first $1M, so $470K.

Upgrades, $100K.

Earnings on $600K during the last 4 years to the day: SPY would have returned $85K, TLT (bonds) would have returned $270K. Hell, even cash in the bank would have returned $50K. Let's go with $90K because I don't want to hear any whining.

So grand tally is $1500K for 48 months of living.

That's $31K a month for 2300 sq ft, and we can't even decide if we like the views?

*head shaking*

West81st: At some point, though, you have to look at what real people in the market are doing and say, "My prediction of imminent disaster was wrong."

Yeah, I'm looking. They're doing exactly what I'd predicted. Bleeding it out slow & steady, all the while pretending like it didn't happen. Carry on.

NWT: "That's OK; the -600 from this one is offset by the +600 on their previous place."

Case-in-point.

Alright, let's do the actual math for offsetting "the +600 on their previous place".

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/185667-condo-172-west-79th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
That place went into contract April 2004 at $1M, was purchased April 2005, was sold April 2008 at $1.6M. Basically hit the parabolic portion of the bubble perfectly. Gross profit $600K. Minus $100K for after-tax interest on $800K at 5.75%. Minus $50K in monthlies. Minus $65K in earnings on SPY for $200K downpayment. So all-in, up $235K for those 3 years of living rent-free. Ahh, the glory of the bubble.

Offsetting that against the $1500K from the newer place, we're left with $1265K for 7 years or $15K a month. That's for 3 years in a 1233 sq ft 2nd-floor apt, and 4 years in a 2300 sq ft apt in a less-than-prime location with views whose niceness is in question. The former was probably worth no more than $5-6K in rent, the latter $10-12K. That averages out to $8-9K, about $675-750K total for the 7 years.

So even after offsetting some perfectly-timed bubble profits, still in the hole for $500-600K compared to renting, close to the entire downpayment on the second place.

But....but....

They got to paint their favorite hideous color.

Priceless.

I think at $15K a month for those 7 years, she should have taken this:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/486478-condo-200-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york

- 4600 sq ft instead of a meager 1233 & 2300
- 43rd floor instead of 2nd floor and 16th floor
- 360 degree views directly on the river that no one can argue with
- A 3-minute walk to work

CC: "But....but.... They got to paint their favorite hideous color. Priceless."

The color I can understand. What I do not get is their choice of apt / price point and the heavy-sized mortgage. I would have thought the owners would have been more wealthy, would have bought something nicer sooner, and/or would have relied less on a big mortgage.

Apparently they are movin to the 'burbs:

http://m.tmz.com/article_head.ftl?id=http://www.tmz.com/2012/03/06/elisabeth-hasselbeck-condo-manhattan-for-sale/

'Coz they don't have you as a financial advisor.

now that's some math, nada--this kind of steady bleed is all over the place, and many don't have bubblicious gains to offset

re the seller: get her outta here..good riddance..plastic conservative media parrot...ick

Come now, Wbottom. You of all people should have a little love for peak-bubble Republican buyers. ;)

ha! so true

one case certainly does not make a trend.

but its interesting to see who actually bought a place like this and the circumstances under which they bought it.

as in "I can't imagine who would buy this at this price."

Columbiacounty, this building has a lot of glass. You sure that's your style?

Here before you, for your inspection I present a couple's actual actions which speak to who they are.
Apartment #1...2br. on the second floor. Not exactly showing off. Looks like someone lives within their means. $$$reward when sold.
Apartment #2...read above...we're crapp'in all over it. Based on their conservative fiscal lifestyle, it's a good thing they are careful with their spending because the bubble doesn't care about politics. The bubble treats all it victims the same. We should all be so fortunate enough to shake off such a loss.
Inonada, 200 Riverside? Really? First, you need a crystal ball. Second, it's like...that's your wife? Here's a picture of the wife you could have had.

Inonada - Sorry, but the neighborhood of the Ariel is far superior today than anything on RSB. When we moved we rejected RSB as an alternative. Too remote, too sterile, and Noche Mexicana isn't within delivery distance.

uwsmom: Yes, please use capitals. The pun went completely over my feeble head.

inonada: The suburbs make sense, considering where he works. That's a whopping commute from the Upper West Side, at least to the main studio. As for whether they are or aren't wealthy, who knows? Rich & famous people use leverage too.

"Inonada - Sorry, but the neighborhood of the Ariel is far superior today than anything on RSB. When we moved we rejected RSB as an alternative. Too remote, too sterile, and Noche Mexicana isn't within delivery distance."

Hmm, yes. That makes up for paying double the price for half the space -- a 4x discrepancy. Never mind the fact that there is a very broad and deep market all along RSB that pays the same ppsf as for Ariel, higher if it has a view. Never mind that comps in the building would put the unit at $6-7M easily. All that matters is your personal preference for the stroller patrol crowds of one version of sub-prime UWS over the shininess of another version of sub-prime UWS, the literally billions of dollars spent at RSB over thousands of transactions with comparable ppsf be damned.

Anyways, I put that one up because I thought it was apropos given the proximity to her studio.

Bravo. Bravo. Nada.

Fking hilarious. W81. Hey when the bubble deflates completely you won't have to be 'nice to your mother' well at least not $4mm nice. Just $28k nice.

Hahhahahahhanahhaaaaaaaasss.

Falco, what do you mean by "you need a crystal ball"? How much intelligence does it take to figure out that prices are out-of-whack with reality? You'd think the 60% rise is the old apts value would have given a clue, but maybe there's an argument to be made against having intelligence in this case. But then you have the fact that the contract was signed early 2008. I'm pretty sure said parties would have heard about this thing called "the housing bubble" by then. Finally, one has w67th -- who needs a crystal ball.

The good news is that Mr. H is pretty impervious to the "picture of the wife you could have had" thing. Looks already set a high bar, but then you have "Sure, I'll grant you that she's incrementally prettier, but does she pull down a million a year? Pshttt..."

West81st, were does Mr. H work?

Bristol, I think.

Wow, 2 hours each way is brutal.

Oh. That hasselback the fake boobed survivor showing her tatas for peanut butter?

That jives with jesus' teaching. The meek and big boobed shall inheret the earth....

That means, in the end, the meek get access to the boob endowed.

Seems fair.