Is inventory going to improve in September?

should be raining properties

If past performance is any indication of future results, then yes.

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=&mindt=09%2F01%2F2011&maxdt=08%2F31%2F2012&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2008%2F01%2F01

Thank You. I'll hold off in making offers until october then

I've had certain clients waiting each Spring and Fall the past two years for the "rain" to start, and it hasn't happened. History is a good guide, but the last two years have not seen the normal amount of new properties hit the market. Perhaps a healthy sales market this summer and an insane rental market will prove me wrong, but I just don't see it this Fall. If you see something you love, or can love with a bit of work, jump on it..l

Mets79, that doesn't sound like brokerspeak at all!

Fair enough bjw. But Its true! I wish it weren't...I'd have a lot more happy buyers. And I would spend less time showing apartments.

But it's cool; I was around in 2007 at the height, 2009 when it was brutal, and now we're back to a pretty strong market due to lack of inventory. People are selective (at my price point, at least), mortgages are going to the qualified (thank god), and people are looking at property as a home instead of a commodity (again, at my average sales point). I like what I do. And I like doing it now moreso than in 2007. Then again, I worked for someone instead of myself in 2007....

Agree.

Inventory will not go up until prices go up. Prices are not going up because the economy blows in NY. Wall street is still downsizing and bonuses will not be what the used to be.

Rent unless you plan on staying in the same apt for at least 7 yrs

sounds like doomsday

OP - there are two periods in Manhattan when we see a nice batch of supply come on market and back to market. First is in the beginning of the active season every calendar year (think Jan through April). Second, is after labor day in Sept & Oct. Here is Manhattan new monthly supply totals since 2008 so you can see the trends for yourself

http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?k=b68bcff69282b6cddfc0c6bf830f3188

Noah: Could you speculate on how close the RE market correlates with the stock market. There are some obvious correlations in that chart -Oct '08!- but that could be a outlier due to extreme circumstances. Most hedge fund managers are predicting a downturn after the election and into 2013 - many are seeing more that a 20% correction. Of course the hedgies have been wrong all year, seriously underperforming the S&P, but if there is indeed a serious correction, do you have a guess about supply in 2013? Have all the weak hands been shaken out of the market the past few years? Will foreign buyers dry up if there is a global recession or will floodgates open for NY?

Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2012 Tough as Teflon
By VITO J. RACANELLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The stock market has deflected lots of worrisome news this summer, and Wall Street strategists see more gains ahead. Beware the fiscal cliff.

Yes. Already some new 3+ brs on the UWS market.

first off, u need a sustained correction in equities to occur and all the media effect and secondary elements that lower buyer confidence that typically comes with it..commodties selloff, dollar rises, vix rises, etc. second, you wont see an impact in price action right away. That may take months as sellers adjust to a buyer that is not bidding as aggressively...so the first thing that will happen is a decline in general volume, pending will fall, supply will rise and off-mkt likely will rise too. deal vol falls because buyers are now pricing in a downside risk to manhattan property that may not have happened yet..the reports and the comps still look strong, but real time in the field, sellers r no longer getting those bids. So expect deal vol to fall rather immediately once we really see a decline in equities take hold, and then expect decline in comps/reports like 5-6 months later.

should have added...fairly close. as equities slowly rose up to current levels over past 3 years, manhattan re did the same. i dont think we would have seen the sustained action we saw this yr if equities didnt march on the way they did from the abyss from early 09.

Don't forget the butter.

30yr mortgages going from 6% to 3% had NUTHIN to do with it. -huh????- talk about missing the point

If the re mkt was so strong why didn't sellers gain any footing for the 30% decrease in monthly payments?

Absent mortgage manipulation nyc re would be down 30% from 2009 levels. And it'll get there. Just about the time w67 sells sprint for $5mm. Flmaozzzz.

the question was fairly clear that the comparison was between US equity trends and Manhattan real estate.

"should have added...fairly close. as equities slowly rose up to current levels over past 3 years, manhattan re did the same."

You do realize that Manhattan RE is only up 10% from its cherry-picked 2009 low, while for equities it's been 110%, right?

Where is it compared to the 2007 high?

100% up on sprint in 4 months ($1mm at one point) versus 10% up for nyc re since 2009 and that's with 300bps drop in 30 yr fixed. And the units that are printing at 10% up From 2009 are the best of The best.

You forgot the butter again. When 100% of nyc re is bought with 100% equity you'd be right ud. Hahahahaaaaa That's like saying libor manipulations has had zero impact on equities and housing?

Even if you steal fractions of pennies, you are still stealing.

Bankers and borkers. Stealing fractions of fractions at a time.

i didnt say it was a 1:1 correlation in % chg from cherry picked low to today. i figured the OP was just talking trends here understanding that a pop from the exact bottom for equities is likely to be much higher than a pop from the bottom for manhattan re prices, given trend in housing everywhere else and where the fed/govt poured liquidity into. but thats just me, maybe the op can clarify if was asking if the trend with equities is a 1:1 ratio with the trend to manhattan median price trends OR how closely the general trend of Manhattan real estate fundamentals tracks with broader stock market trends.

>and that's with 300bps drop in 30 yr fixed.

Yes, it's with a drop in the 30 year. Yes, that drop actually happened.

stevejhx used to make ridiculous statements like you. He was wrong, but he would have been right if something else happened. Gold should have gone down, except that it didn't, and after all, Warren Buffett said he doesn't like to own gold. Lehman should have been allowed to live by the government. But it didn't, and the market dropped.

I'd have a ham and cheese sandwich, if I just had some ham. And some cheese and bread.

Last time I went to AC, I put $50 on red because I knew black wouldn't come up. But 00 came up. So I was right that black didn't come up. Is there an address on west 67th street that I can send my complaint to?

FLMAOZ

hunters -- broader manhattan trend, prob close to 10%-12% like ionada says. But break it up between price points, whole different story. So I guess the question is whether you care what kind of property is selling compared to its 2007 high?

w67th - granted rates will rise, but will it really be destruction during the first phase of that reversal? Rate have been declining for what, 30 yrs now? secular bull mkt for treasury bonds at or near its peak right now? when it turns, even if its fierce at first, 10yr goes to 3%m, lending rates in general rise from 3.6% to 5%. So now, are rates rising because

a) faith in US treasury bonds are eroding?

or

b) economy is picking up steam/inflation expectations rise?

or

c) stagflation?

if its (b), i have a feeling alot more people will have buying power and can deal with higher rates without any ill effect on struggling housing markets in much of the US. if its (a) or (c), we're fucked.

I expect a flmazozzzozndopzzz remark in about 37 seconds

>hunters -- broader manhattan trend, prob close to 10%-12% like ionada says. But break it up between price points, whole different story. So I guess the question is whether you care what kind of property is selling compared to its 2007 high?

Oh come on, can't you just give me a simple answer?
Sounds bites are what sells: Buy now! Are you better off than 4 years ago? You can't get pregnant from that. You did build that. Buy Sprint. More hope and more change. Small business is the engine of the economy. jim_hones10/columbiacounty is not the same as murderer James Holmes from Colorado. Hey buddy, don't get on my shitlist.

>w67th - granted rates will rise,

Why?

Aboutready and I disagree with you. And with w67.

"Oh come on, can't you just give me a simple answer?"

ok, we're close.

Very astute Ud. So what your are saying is if the economy gets better, NY re will too.

You so smaat

Don't be an ass.
He was specifically asked about correlations.

I would expect some new product to come on line in September. Sellers know the two best season to sell are Spring and Fall(and in that order). If we're talking outside Manhattan there is another dynamic foreclosure inventory and the banks are only beginning to ramp back up the machinery after the farce of a settlement between the banks and the A.G.'s and Treasury.

@ Urban, The New York market is being held up by foreign money. Just compare NY to Greenwich. Both are beneficiaries of Wall Street yet only Manhattan has the foreign interest.

Riversider, you are so good at being above all the "riff raff". You, apt23, and mimi.

ahh, i remember why i stopped coming here

oh yes, urbandigs.com is so much better than streeteasy.com

Yes. and I know why I don't go there.

How about in Brooklyn, where I've been looking? the market has gone through the roof, price wise, in the last 6 moths after steadily rising for years. But in the year we have been looking, we've seen prices in certain neighborhoods (clinton hill, ft greene, park slope, cobble hill, boerum hill, carroll gardens, greenpoint, prospect heights, even bed stuy and crown heights) go from in, to just outside, our range. Not only that, inventory has been close to zip. So kind of wondering what to expect come fall...

So expect deal vol to fall rather immediately once we really see a decline in equities take hold, and then expect decline in comps/reports like 5-6 months later.

Yes, thanks Noah, this is what happened in 2008, no? And it was shocking...... although it was no real reversion to the mean. What I would like an opinion on, and granted I was unclear, is this -----Since the market tanked in 2008 in exactly the way you described above, will the next shock to the stock market unfold in the same way or is there another greater shock level that will arrive with a serious market correction. The Wall ST jobs have already been cut to the bone so I wouldn't expect massive selling from over extended gordon geckos. The foreigners that absconded like rats from a sinking ship from their respective countries with their booty (corruption/graft from China, stolen national resources from Russia, diversification from political fear in South America) to invest in London and Swiss banks and NY RE post 2008 might or might not be tapped out.

I am wondering if the current rise in NY RE prices is the tail end of bubble chasing because of fed-induced surging stock market or if there is a real put in the NY RE market from exogenous sources. Is there still a foreign source for purchases or a new industry in NY large enough to support sales at these prices. If there is a predictable stock market correlation in NY RE just as there was in 2008, what happens after the price drop six months later and there are no puts (like the foreign buyers in 2008). What is the next correlation down? 2002? 1998? 1993? Do charts give any indication of where there is a support level? Thanks Noah.

Noah, will it happen by w67 going through apt23's backdoor?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor

"Inventory will not go up until prices go up. Prices are not going up because the economy blows in NY. "

Agreed. I've seen the surveys saying folks are waiting for prices to rise to list. If that is the case, it could be hard for prices to recover for a long time.

"the market has gone through the roof, price wise, in the last 6 moths after steadily rising for years."

Huh? Not quite sure where you are getting these stats from, they're completely wrong.

Per miller samuel, median c0-op value is currently lower than the same time in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Condos are below 2007 prices. 1-3 family median is the lowest since... well, Miller Samuel started recording.