Key Takeaways
- November marks the slowest year-over-year rent growth (2.9%) since August 2021, when rents began rapidly increasing after the pandemic lull.
- The citywide median asking rent fell 2.8% to $3,500 in November from $3,600 in October.
- While rents remain up year-over-year, rental concessions are at a two-year high due to rising inventory softening competition among renters.
The median asking rent in New York City fell 2.8% to $3,500 in November from $3,600 in October. While asking rents tend to decline this time of year from their summer highs, as colder weather and holiday travel set in, the current median rent of $3,500 is up just 2.9% from November 2022 — the slowest year-over-year rent growth since August 2021.
Slower rent growth reflects rising inventory across the city. There were 32,049 rentals on the market in November 2023, up 8.6% from a year ago. When acute inventory shortages led to tough competition in 2022, the median asking rent rose 23.6% year-over-year in November of that year, nearly ten times the current rate of 2.9%.
In an early sign of cooling competition, rental concessions hit a two-year high in NYC, with one in five (19.9%) rentals on the market offering at least one month of free rent in November, up from 14.3% in November 2022. The last time the share of rentals offering concessions was higher than now was July 2021 (22.4%), when the city was grappling with an exodus of residents during the pandemic.
More rental concessions is a signal that rent growth will likely slow further in NYC next year, though renters are unlikely to see outright declines in asking rents across most of the city — one of StreetEasy’s housing market predictions for 2024. Amid a sharp increase in inventory, however, Manhattan asking rents will likely dip from their current elevated levels. Improved affordability in the borough will strengthen demand from New Yorkers who prioritize commute times to office hubs. See StreetEasy’s 2024 NYC Housing Market Predictions for more on what may unfold next year.
Manhattan Leads City in Inventory Growth, Suggesting Its Asking Rents Will Decline in 2024
Manhattan is currently leading the five boroughs in inventory growth. There were 15,885 rentals on the market in Manhattan in November, up 10.2% from a year ago. Its median asking rent declined 1.1% to $4,150 in November from $4,195 in October. Compared to last year, the median asking rent is up just 1.2% — a notable slowdown from the 17.3% year-over-year growth seen in November 2022.
As landlords compete on prices to attract tenants, Manhattan asking rents will decline next year compared to 2023, and renters will find more apartments offering concessions. The city’s current rise in rental concessions is being led by Manhattan. In November, 22.6% of rentals in the borough offered at least one month of free rent, compared to 15.6% a year ago.
Manhattan Rentals Under $3,000 on StreetEasy Article continues below
In 2024, improving affordability in Manhattan will encourage renters prioritizing a quick commute to the office to reconsider the borough. NYC’s job market remains healthy, with private employment surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Continued job creation, in addition to workers spending more days per week in the office, will lead to increased demand for rentals in Manhattan in 2024. Our colleagues at Zillow® expect other urban rental markets across the country to follow Manhattan’s lead and experience rising demand near urban centers.
Competition Is Cooling in Brooklyn, But Rent Growth Remains Steady
In Brooklyn, median asking rents slipped 3.1% to $3,293 in November from $3,400 in October. The borough’s current median rent is 4.5% higher than a year ago — a rate four times slower than the 20.1% year-over-year growth seen in November 2022. However, compared to pre-pandemic, Brooklyn’s 4.5% increase is nearly double the average annual rent growth of 2.3% in 2019.
Persistently low rental inventory in Brooklyn is fueling strong increases in asking rents. There were 10,738 rentals on the Brooklyn market in November, an increase of 8.9% from a year ago. Despite early signs of rising inventory, renters have been grappling with fewer listings to choose from in the area throughout this year. Between January and November, 79,782 rentals were on the market in Brooklyn, 22.4% below the same time period in 2019 before the pandemic.
Brooklyn Rentals Under $3,000 on StreetEasy Article continues below
That said, renters can expect more relief in Brooklyn in 2024. Elevated rents and high mortgage rates will continue to draw more units onto the market, as property owners consider renting out their homes rather than listing them for sale. New Yorkers are also more likely to find rental concessions in Brooklyn now than anytime over the past two years. In November, 17.7% of rental listings in Brooklyn offered concessions, a higher share than 12.7% in November 2022.
Rent Growth Isn’t Slowing in Queens
Queens stood out as the only borough where rent growth isn’t slowing. The median asking rent in Queens was $2,899 in November, mostly unchanged from $2,900 in October but up 11.5% from November 2022. New Yorkers have been increasingly considering Queens as they search for more affordable rentals compared to Manhattan and Brooklyn.
While rental inventory is rising quickly in select neighborhoods known for new rental buildings, such as Long Island City and Flushing, overall inventory across Queens is limited relative to strong demand. There were just 4,435 rentals on the market in Queens in November, up 7.3% from a year ago. Between January and November this year, 28,409 rentals were on the market, 15.8% fewer than the same period in 2019.
Queens Rentals Under $2,500 on StreetEasy Article continues below
Solid demand for rentals in the borough is allowing landlords to hold back on offering concessions. Just 14.7% of rental listings in Queens advertised concessions in 2023, up modestly from 12.8% a year ago.
Despite Slowing Rent Growth, NYC Rental Demand Will Continue to Outpace Supply
As inventory rises further, renters can expect a less challenging market in 2024. Elevated rents are enticing landlords to list their vacant units quickly. Mortgage rates will likely stay above 6% at least through much of 2024, encouraging homeowners locked into lower rates to consider renting out their property instead of selling. As a result, asking rents will grow at a much slower pace, and landlords will increasingly offer concessions to attract tenants next year.
However, NYC renters are still faced with limited options. From January to November, 223,936 rentals were on the market citywide, a 14.8% drop compared to the same period in 2019. With the city’s resilient economy supporting demand, the rental market will remain competitive, as the number of apartment seekers continues to outpace the number of units available for rent.
