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90% of economsts predict recession will ease soon, what does that mean for NYC real estate?

Started by scoots
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009
Discussion about
Does anyone have any historical data as to how nyc real estate typically lags or leads a recovery? I personally still think it is overpriced and probably has significant downside left. But I do not know historically what the relationship has been.
Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

in a credit-based recession housing in general lags the end of the recession by about 7 quarters, I believe. then it is usually stagnant for quite some time. nyc generally follows roughly that pattern. scoots, this recovery of which they speak is not a "recovery", it is the end of a decline.

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Response by marco_m
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008

that same 90% was unable to predict the recession, so who says theyll be any better at predicting the end.

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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

what does ease mean? seems like a hedge.

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Response by scoots
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009

"Ease" is - comparable to aboutready's comment - really the end of the decline and hopefully the beginning of a long, slow recovery. No one thinks it will snap back in a traditional V or U shaped recovery. We could go sideways for a long time and then begin the slow climb of growth.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Interesting. I read the bloomberg article stating that 75% of business economists (wtf does that mean?) think that growth of .7% average will occur the third quarter. They now predict a consumer spending decline of MUCH less than their previous estimates, while their unemployment estimates have increased by nearly a percentage point (still too low at 9.8% by the year end). They somehow believe that consumer spending will INCREASE by 2.1% next year. Good luck with making those numbers work.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

btw scoots, the academic economists are not on board with the business economists' views, fwiw. many are calling for fourth quarter declines, very sluggish first quarter growth.

neither have been particularly accurate in the past, overall, although in the last couple of years the academics have seemed to grasp the issues more clearly.

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Response by scoots
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009

Thanks. I personally am still quite bearish but am respectful of the econ views.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

i think it's also important to remember when we look at numbers from March through Mayish that these are prime income tax refund months, particularly this year. PCE is often highest near the holidays and near tax refund time. this year tax refunds were running at nearly 20% above last year's level through March or April (can't recall), spending should go up MoM this time of year. and we have had the lower gas price stimulus as well.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

scoots, not piling on you. you asked a legit question. i'll take my bearish ways back to the consumer confidence thread.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i am new to the real estate mkt since i've been comfortable in my home for over 10 years. I haven't paid attention to re prices, no need. now i am considering purchasing perhaps a pied a terre in NYC, newer construction. Can you please tell me what years was real estate the highest price, and also when it was more demand than supply. i am focusing on the past 10 yrs only, and mainly newer construction, such as pre-construction pricing. thanks :)

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Movinup1,
You're considering upgrading and want information from people on these board? DON'T DO IT! They're stone you here...buying a home is treated as an act of treason to your country on these boards.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

these boards do get intense!. i'm not asking for opinions just simple facts about the past re mkt. i definitely don't have the guts to contribute here! LOL and BTW i'm not trading up. i'm keeping my mansion and looking into purchasing a 1BR for leisure purposes.

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

chorizo, that's ridiculous...it's only stupid statements about the NYC RE market rebounding from here on out that drive people on the board crazy.
And those statements have been coming from you as of late.

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

And Movinup1, I'm sure ericho glacias can provide some random trends that are totally out of context and may put you at ease, but provide no useful info.

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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008

Your best bet for NYC historical prices, Scoots, is Miller Samuel which has a data tab which allows you to sort the data from back to 1989 pretty much anyway you want. (I prefer price per square foot - but take whatever makes sense to you.) Take some time to study all the ways of looking at the data.

http://www.millersamuel.com/data/index.php

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

movinup1, my unscientific guess is that pre-construction contract prices hit their peak in spring 2007, with a few exceptions here and there. that should give you a good basis for comparison. if you want to look at what prices were on the early side, look at the 2004-06 closing prices in Chelsea and early downtown developments. You may have to look at some conversions, because they happened faster, but it should give you an idea of the trajectory of the pricing. if you'd like the names of some developments that started closings at different times, in a specific neighborhood, give a shout and i'll try to help.

not trying to insult your intelligence, but i'm sure you know to be very careful in the new development marketplace.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

scoots, i like price per square foot also. just be aware that condo standards changed over the last few years. older condos generally feel much more spacious per square foot, so it's not apples to apples.

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Response by justin_p
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Mar 2009
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

justin_p, wouldn't dream of telling you where to post something, but that would really work right now on the unhappy buyer thread.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

thanks aboutr. i am looking into new COMPLETED construction with the 421-A. i'm looking to occupy now so i'm not interested in today's pre-construct such as tempo. most of the new developments that closed in 2008 i guess were purchased in 2006-2007 so that is why i was asking about peak prices. i guess anyone who bought in 06-07 and closed in 08 have a difficult situation on their hands if their financial situation or their lending situation changed. and then there are remaining sponsor units which may be more negotiable. i think 1M for a 1 BR apt is ridiculous, but right now RE particularly NYC RE is the best investment if someone has the means to do it.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

don't look in any building that isn't about 90% sold. just my advice. and remember, there are different abatement programs. 10 WEA, i believe, was only for 5 years, 20% increases yearly. so some of the buildings you find may not interest you after all. good luck.

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Response by jason10006
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

Yeah, I have read of studies that traced home prices all the way back the the 1800s in the U.S., and another that traced them in the Netherlands to the 1600s - and both found that home prices on average go up at about the same rate as nominal per capita GDP, which is about what this article states. Buying a home is not a bad investment, but its not a good one either, it seems.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"....but right now RE particularly NYC RE is the best investment if someone has the means to do it. "

I concur...

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Response by mimi
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1134
Member since: Sep 2008

movinup I am also looking for a piede a terre, but I feel that the prices need to come down a bit more. Why do you think that RE NYC is the best investment right now? They are still 200% up from 6-7 years ago, in some places, 300%. Doesn't this represent a bubble? Aren't we learning what happens with bubbles? I am anxious to buy, but I can't neglect the current state of things.

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Response by justin_p
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Mar 2009

aboutR -

i'm actually looking to buy right now, but it's a little scary. thing is, i think i found a good buy in a good neighborhood & i can afford it at the moment - working out the details of the contract. needs some work, but that's why the price is right. the place is probably not big enough to add children to the mix, so that complicates things if the fiancee & i go in that direction.

i guess i'd be able to rent instead of taking a hit. this stuff certainly isn't for the weak of heart.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Wait a minute!
Where's all these folks coming from? Looking to 'buy'? Are you folks serious! The 4 horsemen are coming, if there's anything to buy it's a bomb shelter loaded with spam and frozen pizzas.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Clearly more signs of a bottom....

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

justin, how many years out is the child possibility? i'd like to be supportive, but i'm not certain that this is wise if you really think that there is no room for a child and you're thinking about having one within the next few years.

sweat equity should give you some cushion against potential declines, but the last thing you need is to be stuck if you need to move. there is no need for that right now. this isn't for the weak of heart.

if you'd like to give some more details, but not here, feel free to contact me at aboutreadyse "@" gmail.com.

mimi, i think it is not a particularly good time to buy, but i think you know that about me. having said that, i understand the desire to buy, and it certainly is a better time than a year ago. i don't recommend it at all, but...

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

I agree, if you have doubts about staying for more than 5 years i would avoid making the plunge. Then again, renting for 5 years at 2,100-2,400 rent a month will be quite a sum.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

if you need room for kids, buy my McMansion in NJ. There's plenty of room for you and your kids, even if you decide to go the octomom route and

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

mimi i believe NYC RE is a BETTER investment than the stock mkt or even your 401K right now. I too think prices need to come down a bit, i put in 2 offers that i felt were reasonable and both times the offer was considered and rejected. i will wait since i don't need to buy or move and i am not looking at it as an investment property but as a 2nd home/vacation home if you will. i can stay 5 - 10 yrs in it or sell it when the timing is right. another option for me is to rent in the bldg i'm considering and see what happens in 6 mos to a year. this way i get to experience the pied a terre lifestyle w/o having to put a lot down and worry about getting a mortgage and paying 5% in closing costs etc.

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Response by scoots
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009

Thanks all for the price/square foot comments. On the coop side, does Miller Samuel (or anyone else) verify the actual size? I see so many coop listings that are complete bullshit. A broker was over for a party once and I told her that our apartment was 1,400 square feet - we measured it ourselves. She said she'd list it at 1,600 because it "feels big". WTF?

PS - I agree with the bears, was just repeating a stat I heard on cnbc this morning.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i like to believe the mkt is still coming down, and i certainly can wait and see if it does, but no one can guess what the future will be. yes we can speculate and watch trends etc. history repeats itself, what goes up most come down, cyclical economy 101 yada yada yada. but IMHO, i believe this is a unique mkt in that no one knows how to react to it, and so many sellers have many different circumstances in why they are selling and how much they are willing to lose (and in newer construction purchased within the last couple of years in particular,) sellers are taking big losses. i am not waiting for bottom, or just fishing, i am s serious buyer but sellers are serious too in what they expect, unfortunately the market is not in favor of the seller right now, and time is on my side

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Response by jason10006
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

scoots, square footage exageration is 9,000 threads here. Old bldgs, new, whatever. So just assume that everyone lies when reporting to milller and ignore that.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

how much money do you make and what do you think your 5yr cost of LIC will be, eunich72?

5 yrs rent at $2.4K is $144K... that's less than the cost of my 997T new. Shit... 6% of a $1MM transaction (that's a 1bdrm Man) is let me get my calculator.... mmmmm...... mmmmmm oh yeh... $60K.. and don't forget the 30% mkt gyrations and interest cost on $1MM oh RE tax... oh CC... oh oh oh oh oh oh oh HO HO HO HO HO merry xmas!

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

BUT hell RE is the GREATEST INFLATION hedge invented, it says so on your purchase contract.... carry on!

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

scoots, i agree with jason. they've always lied, but probably fairly consistently. it may be a bit better now (or they're just leaving the info off), but not significantly so.

w67th, i think you're confusing the children. i'm assuming $60k X 5 = $300k? need to spell it out.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

ar :)

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i sure do wish the sellers i'm dealing with read these threads! are they optimistic or oblivious? From what i read, and hear , and observe, the economy is really bad-people are losing their jobs, people cannot afford their homes, buyers cannot get mortgages, why aren't sellers realizing this? even if things were to get better (i actually heard some brokers say that in a couple of mos. there will be bidding wars)it is not going to happen over night. it's a long road ahead, but for some reason sponsors and sellers alike would rather keep their 1BR units on the market in hopes that someone will pay 2007-2008 prices and maybe even at a profit! I'm just so frustrated because i do pay attention to the mkt and i did research on the apts i am looking at but i will be forceed to wait for these sellers to realize they will not make a profit on their condo they purchased at the height of the market. Wow I sound like a spoiled brat! i just know what i want and i hate cat & mouse games, but i believe the NYC RE market is still falling, and prices WILL drop over the summer, so with that, i cannot in good conscience move up from my price limit. Let's just hope there is not suddenly a huge demand and lack of supply of 1BR condos!

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

movinup1, you had me until that last sentence. please.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

movinup1 - sellers who dont have to sell are not going to let their units go for a loss or breakeven. They will keep them, live in them or rent them. If you want to bottom feed you need to find a seller who has to sell then fight like a seagul for a french fry with the rest of the bottom feeders.

Also while you wait to save $30K on the sales price you will spend $60K in rent.

Seems like your strategy is brilliant

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Response by ab_11218
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2017
Member since: May 2009

w67, i think you may need to break out your calculator again. a $1M apt will not rent for $2,400, more like $3,200+.

the 6% closing costs also seem VERY high. the only way you'll get there is if you're purchasing from sponsor and they are not paying their side of the costs. those days are gone.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

aboutready basically i'm thinking out loud here. No one has the answer/solution to my desire to buy except for the sellers in the apt i'm looking at. i will just have to wait & see if after a few mos they are still on the mkt and would reconsider my offer, and if in the meantime someone comes and offers more to them then i did, and it is gone well so be it good for the seller.

petrfitz i am talking about sellers who do have to sell for whatever reason. i'm talking about the seller who bought in 2007-2008 and couldn't close, or whose financial situation changed or who decided to take a loss on a smaller unit to take advantage of this mkt for a bigger unit. I am also referring to sponsors who are 80% sold that have a few units left and would like to close up shop and move on. I am not bottom feeding but i don't want to pay 2007 prices in 2009. $900+ PSF i don't think is impossible, maybe this month but i think that will be a great range in a month or two. Again this is a luxury not a necessity for me so i will wait and not rent. i have everything to gain by waiting, 1st either the prices will fall into my range, or 2nd i will have saved add'l monies to put into exactly what i want, and if that means i'll be in a better position to go up in my price range so be it.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

true that, movinup1, but keep on looking. there's more coming on, if those go, there will be a new crop. good luck.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

and yes my strategy is brilliant :)

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Response by alanhart
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007

"fight like a seagul for a french fry with the rest of the bottom feeders" [sic]

Petrofrizz, I like that imagery. It reminds me of the overnight campouts for pre-construction applications, and the intense bidding wars, from the reaching-peak RE frenzy a few years ago. [sick]

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

aboutready :) truly appreciate your insight and help. i especially appreciate that you don't feel the need to insult a newbie as some of the other posters here.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

movinup1, the buying process is difficult enough without insults, much less with (although i'll confess i just hurled something at someone, but with some provocation).

i agree with you, that waiting is best, but i know most first time buyers have been looking for only a few years at most and it's difficult not to be impressed with declining prices when you have been seriously priced out (and have felt like you could be forever). there's so much conflicting information that it is hard for someone who has followed the real estate market religiously for the past 12 years to make sense of it, much less a lay person who'd simply like to own their own home.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

alanhart, i made a grammatical error in that last entry, first sentence. leave me alone about it already. irregardless of what you think.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

movingup1 says "i am talking about sellers who do have to sell for whatever reason. i'm talking about the seller who bought in 2007-2008 and couldn't close, or whose financial situation changed or who decided to take a loss on a smaller unit to take advantage of this mkt for a bigger unit. I am also referring to sponsors who are 80% sold that have a few units left and would like to close up shop and move on."

How many units like this are there on the market now? What percentage of units for sale? I bet you that this makes up less than 5% of the units and probably less than 1%. Therefore you are looking for the deal that all the other bottom feeders are looking for. It is a similar group as the scum that gathers to buy foreclosed properties.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

Wow pet, are u calling me scum? i am not looking to gloat in someones' misery, i feel badly for people that are losing their home, but i am not the reason they are losing their home. and as i said i am looking to buy sponsor/developer units still available. please don't quote me anymore, direct your hostility elsewhere.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

i am just playing the other side of the coin that you started. You stated that Sellers are "oblivious" You are part of this group of people who think that people who own property are just going to give it to you at the low ball scumbag price you are offering. That is simply not true. Most owners will hold onto to their property until they get the price they want. Or they wont sell it until the market comes back.

It is lowball buyers like you who are oblivious in that you dont realize that 99% of the properties on the market are not "must sell" they are sell if i get what I want. So dont bad mouth sellers when it is you who doesnt understand the market.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

or you could just seek anger mgmt counseling.........

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

but what about those greedy sellers who hold onto property too long? what if the market doesn't make a "comeback" for another 5/10/15 years (to the way it was in 2006/2007)
I played the third side of the coin...greedy sellers (just like greedy buyers)

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

it's all about employment and income.

and what are the baby boomers going to think when they are finally presented with definitive evidence that the values have shrunk? what will they think especially if this bear market rally doesn't hold? once again their 401Ks will have shrunk, if they weren't in cash, and their remaining large asset will be at risk? if you're 50+ (espescially if the kids are gone or close to it) do you hold on and hope that your asset will recover? i sure as hell wouldn't, not with rents this low.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

upperwestsider - you mean like the greedy sellers who bought in the 80's and didnt sell?

you think that they regret not selling the condo they bought for $100K that is not worth $2 million? Yeah they could have gotten $2.4 for it in 2007. Stupid greed.

most people buy real estate for the long term therefore most people can hold onto their properties for the next 5, 10 years until the market comes back.

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

good point...who here wants to gamble with their nest-egg. Take what you can get and run, or roll the dice. And I wouldn't call the people low-balling on offers scum...they are rolling the dice in many cases as well...who knows if it sinks lower or not (although I bet it will.)

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

Unless they are retiring and it was their nestegg, as AR points out.
Not everyone is a sprite youngster like you fitz. Some people needed that extra $400K, hell they depended on it...

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

let me clarify, i am not a lowballer (if you can prove otherwise, go for it) i haven't bad mouthed any sellers, (i believe scum came out of your mouth referring to buyers) and i don't expect anyone to give me anything. and if anyone doesn't need to sell in this market why would they? you are totally missing my perspective and my circumstance good luck in selling your place :)

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

And I never said stupid greed, just greed. Quote me correctly or don't quote me at all chief.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

what's wrong with lowballing? no seller has to accept any offer. it's their choice. if you have the stomach for it (and it takes some nerve, particularly if you're not using a broker) you're just putting forth an offer.

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

exactly, but some people take it personally...they don't like fighting for that last french fry I guess.
Me? I fight for the fry!

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

question - do you think that all those people who dumped their real estate in the late 80's regret that move now?

Or do you think that they believe selling for break even or at a loss at the time was a smart move?

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

Absolutely nothing wrong with low balling. I do it myself. The difference is that many people like movingup1 think that pretty much all units can be low balled. Simply wrong. A very few number of units can be had at lowball offers.

To be effective in the low ball approach you need to do a lot of research, see a lot of units, go thru multiple broker relationships, put in a lot of rejected offers, spend a lot of time and money reviewing contracts that get pulled by the seller who got a better offer while stringing you along etc.

The lowball approach if done wrong can be a complete waste of the buyers time and money.

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

It's a gamble, that is the point. Are you saying the surge seen in NYC RE between 1980 and now will be seen again?
So you're telling me an apartment on RSD in the eighties, direct river view, say 2,000 sqr ft, if worth $2 - $2.4MM now, will be worth x10 in 10 years? x20 in 20 years?
Really? $20MM for 2,000 sqrft? I assume a loaf of bread at that point is $500 right?

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

I agree research is involved for a lowball, but if the seller doesn't care about the guy 2 floors above who sold for 10% less, what difference does it make?
And tell me how it's a waste of time?
BUYER: I'll give you asking price -25%
Seller: Kill yourself

WOW! That took a long time...

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

i do think that there will be another surge in NYC real estate over the next 20 years. I also believe that Wall STreet will find another way to artifically inflate markets and in turn rape and pillage the savings of Americans in the next 20 years.

History repeats itself. America repeats its own mistakes often. We dont learn from our lessons.

Another RE bubble will come and probably faster than every one thinks.

Remember the months after 9/11 where units were going up 5-10% month after month?

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Response by upperwestrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 488
Member since: Jan 2009

Why not compare a bubble to a bubble?
What happened in the tech industry after that bubble burst?
Other than a stock here or there, did the sector as a whole ever experience that surge again?
I don't believe it did...

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

BUYER: I'll give you asking price -25%
Seller: OK here is the contract
BUYER: OK I will pay a lawyer $2500 to review it
Seller: OK but you will need to give me a check for 10% if you want to hold the unit

3 weeks later

BUYER: my lawyer has changes to the contract
Seller: no changes

3 weeks later

BUYER: my lawyer has changes to the contract
Seller: ok i will agree to these changes if you send me the chekc for $100K deposit

2 weeks later

BUYER: I am ready to execute and gve you the check
Seller: oh too late I have another offer for $50K more

BUYER: no way
Seller: ok see you later

BUYER's Lawyer: that will be $2500 for contract review

Buyer: but I didnt buy the unit! If I keep low balling It may cost me $20K jsut in legal fees until I actually get a contract signed!

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

What happened in the tech industry after that bubble burst?

another bubble started immediately - called Web 2.0 Facebook, MySpace, Mobile content, video platforms.

a 3rd tech bubble is already starting before the web 2.0 has popped.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i'm sorry, do you know me? why are you putting me in a group and why are you calling me a lowballer? do you have some inside info about me? it seems to me you PET are guilty of whatever it is you're accusing me of. as i said i am not trying to be an effective lowballer, i'll just wait thanks:) do kmow what i did to piss you off but frankly i don't care.

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Response by bronxboy
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 446
Member since: Feb 2009

If the recession ends soon (2010) than the Obama administration will be due serious kudos. Once the recession ends, the NYC real estate will have a couple of more bad years before it levels off. Probably around 2012.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"Why not compare a bubble to a bubble?
What happened in the tech industry after that bubble burst?
Other than a stock here or there, did the sector as a whole ever experience that surge again?
I don't believe it did... "

Some stocks went up 10 - 50 folds off their lows...ala RIMM, AMZN, AAPL. Most went BK because of poor business models. Can we agree that NYC properties are the cream of the crop in the US?

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

movingup1 - I know you. You are a market timer. You dont get real estate or financing. You are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent over the years you spend trying to save $50K off a sales price. You want something for a price that you will never get it at.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"i'm sorry, do you know me? why are you putting me in a group and why are you calling me a lowballer? do you have some inside info about me? it seems to me you PET are guilty of whatever it is you're accusing me of. as i said i am not trying to be an effective lowballer, i'll just wait thanks:) do kmow what i did to piss you off but frankly i don't care."

What's wrong with being a lowballer? Without lowballing, how else would you know what's the best price ....I've been low balling since 2004!!! I say low ball away fellas!

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

I've been low balling since 2004!!!

hmm

5 years of rent at $3000 per month = $180K

5 years of missed tax incentives = 100K

$280K wasted while lowballing to try and save $50K off sales price....

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

out of curiousity what does everyone here consider a lowball offer? just want to make sure i'm in the right category that i was put in :)

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

1 BR midtown west 800-900 SF (if that is even accurate)

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

PET, i own a 7000 SF home on 2 acres of land, YOU DON'T KNOW ME

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"hmm
5 years of rent at $3000 per month = $180K
5 years of missed tax incentives = 100K
$280K wasted while lowballing to try and save $50K off sales price...."

Very good point if rent was 3K for 5 years. That's why at the right price, it's better to buy especially if the price is 20-30% below that of every unit in your building...or neighborhood. :)

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"1 BR midtown west 800-900 SF (if that is even accurate).."

Condo or co-op?
New establishment, walk-up, pre-war, etc. ?
Any amenities? Gym, Pool, doorman?

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

"i own a 7000 SF home on 2 acres of land, YOU DON'T KNOW ME"

I know you. You live in buburbia, over paid to live in a McMansion that will rot from the inside in a few years due to being built with substandad Chinese wallboard, you wished you lived in the city and you consider fine dining in your neighborhood a night out at Olive Garden.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

movinup1, put petrfitz on ignore. i don't bother because i've been reading the same arguments from him forever, and he's only gotten more and more shrill about it as he's been proven increasingly wrong. gee, we all really regret not buying that unit at $1200+ psf in 2007. such opportunities lost, we should all be rocking catatonically, with occasional lucid bursts of weeping.

he is attacking you like a dog with a juicy bone because you are new here. he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about in terms of real estate. i would mention the rent/buy calculation but that could start another endless discussion thereof (if you're interested though, do a search, you'll get more info on the subject than you ever thought possible).

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

Condo, new construction (completed, people moved in) great ammenities. i'd love to here from my good friend Petfritz on this one.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

Wow Pet you do know me!! you're nailed it. come come now, jealousy will get you know where!
AboutR-thank you!
i have thought about that ignore button, but this is just so much funner! whose the dog w/the bone?

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

"he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about in terms of real estate" except that he owns 4 buildings.....aboutready - what do you own? or do you pay rent to a landlord like myself?

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

still waiting for your presentation of a lowballer on the example my PET

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

amenities mean you pay more to buy the unit.

hose same amenities get old and you never get your money back from paying top dollar for them.

Amenities are used by developers to fool the amateur buyer into paying $100K more for $10K worth of stuff.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

....waiting, stop going off topic, what's your offer

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Since i'm here...i'll take a stab at it...

520K to 585K...i'm thinking 650 bucks per square foot. I can't see how they would take this, but that's what low ball offers are. It's that number out from left field that will make most people pee in their pants. If you're thinking lower, then you might want to bring some form of a fire arms with you prior to making the offer. It might be classify as burglary.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

i pay rent, and it is about 20% less than what i'd pay (including tax deduction, not taking into opportunity costs of cash) if i had bought a comparable unit. when i first started renting it was 40% less. it should remain at about 20% less, if it does not i have plenty of cash and could buy if i so desired.

i also own, and i've bought and sold three units over time, at significant profit. macklowe owned a bunch of buildings also. swig too.

well then, movinup1, that's different. as i always say, never engage the assholes, unless it amuses you to do so.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

why is it that the good people here (i won't mention any names, but everyone except my PET) are actually making sense and clarifying details about ourselves. I think Pet needs to put his money where his mouth is are else we won't play with him anymore......

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"...never engage the assholes, unless it amuses you to do so."

Again, what's is it with you streeteasy bears? The constant need to use profanity and name calling makes you look like a bunch of losers.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

"The constant need to use profanity and name calling makes you look like a bunch of losers." it is not the name calling that makes them losers. What makes them losers is that they are market timers, who wasted all their money on rent, and have never been able to break into the owners class. They will spend the next 3 years waiting for an incredible buy at 50% off 2007 prices. They will never find it, continue renting and die alone in their rent controlled studio apart.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

Petfritz, tell me what is your offer?
my guess is, you know nothing about me, you put me in a category that you are the founder of (w/o fact)
and you have no clue on many topics not just RE

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i have not called anyone names, nor used profanity

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

ericho i appreciate your offer, but won't comment until i hear from petfritz

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

i make no offer. I dont buy "units" in buildings with hundreds of other units. It is a stupid buy.

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Response by movinup1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 241
Member since: Mar 2009

i knew it, how convenient. nice job, there goes your credibility. if i were you i'd never post here again.

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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
Member since: Mar 2008

why does my credibility go out the window? You are the one looking at buying a commodity unit with no differention from hundreds of other units. What is the upside with this unit? The entire building filled the exact same unit all need to appreciate for this POS to appreciate.

My credibility is lost because i buy buildings instead of crap box units? hmmm

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