To buy or not to buy

I don't really see how housing in NYC has gone down. I've been looking for a year, and most of the ones I see have actually been up compared with 2 years ago (2009/2010).

I waited nearly 3 years for prices to drop... and NYC still standing tall. It's all that international money, foreigners paying 100% cash that's making NYC defy the law of case-shiller index. Yes, the rest of nation is feeling the double-dip but the arrogant buyers and sellers of NYC just won't let it drop... Frustrating...

I did see a decline, around 15%. I am also looking but will not buy in the near future, too risky

If you do not have a long term time horizon for ownership (10+ years) you have no business getting into this real estate market. If buying fits into your long term financial plans, you have a long time horizon, and you prefer to own, then now is as good a time as any with record low interest rates. Attempting to "market time" your life results in life passing you by. I've read on hear for years posts by some people about 1000 reasons they are waiting for the right moment. Meanwhile, as they wrung their hands and typed about the sky falling, I sold, I bought, I renovated, I live in my dream apartment, and I've derived immense pleasure for over 2 years living in a wonderful home. I have a 30 year mortgage and since I have no plans to move for many years, what the market does tomorrow or next year or in 5 years matters little to me in terms of whether I should have bought or waited.

Only you know your precise circumstances. Just remain reasoned about it.

what is Gary Shilling's record on predicting real estate prices? Does he own like Nouriel Roubini?

I have bought and sold numerous properties in nyc since the late 80's, and profited hugely along the way...i sold my last, most valuable apt in summer 07, and have rented since

ny is down 10-30% from peak, depending upon whom you speak with...there are a few idiots who will tell you their apt is above peak..ignore them

do your own math re renting vs buying...in my case it is significantly cheaper for me to rent..i love my apt, it was freshly renovated prior to my moving in, and is situated perfectly for my current lifestyle...were i to buy, id look for something similar and appoint the place similarly...so it's really proxy for an owned apt

in the meantime, for many reasons, my assessment is that the nyc market will be flat at best for the near term, and may well see a significant, additional break in prices..so, unless prices here in nyc take off, i am, in effect being paid to be patient..and believe me, i am not a doomsayer who can't pull the trigger...have done so numerous times, with great results which produced plenty of cash for me..

and pls resist those who scoff at the concept of considering carefully the time at which one enters what is usually a person's largest investment in a lifetime, and the only one with serious leverage

the "buy a place you love...life will just pass you by" crap is simply bubble talk, often from industry cheerleaders, or from people hyping their own choices...

and re "life passing (people) by" in connection with real estate, it aint about "I wish I'd bought"...it's about the armies of people who were cavalier about purchases and are now in difficult if not ruined financial staits--

do your own math, make your own judgment, and don't be cavalier

Attempting to "market time" your life results in life passing you by.

Exactly. There are a lot of middle aged people here who forgot to actually live a life.

oh...and if you'd like to be awed (and amused) by the extent to which a poster can spew idiotic hype, dealboy is your guy

stick his name in the search field and get a few laughs!!

kyle, I mostly agree. I'm sure the usual suspects will completely overlook your last line, which may not be the advice some are looking for, but it's the truest statement you can make about the general market. The alternative, of course, is Bottoms, who revels in calling people idiots and getting himself into all sorts of run-ins, week in, week out. That said, I do agree with a handful of his points above, even if he's paranoid about people "cheerleading" anything.

For those readers out there...

I would appreciate some insight...

I was about to buy a condo in Tribeca. Priced pretty well at $925K for 855 SF space w storgae included...comes out to about $1030 per sq feet. Money wise, it could make sense for me but just would appreciate some opinion as I'm considering renting it out...

If I were to rent out - do you think there would be enough interest from renters to rent at $4500 (which seems to be a reasonable going rate for a brand new, full service condo in Tribeca)a condo that has a "bedroom/office" space squared off in to a open loft space? Good closets, W/D...etc the standard nice condo...

I am hesitating on pulling the trigger in the case it could just sit without enough interest...Other option would be to just buy something that is more cookie cutter, older, easily rentable condo...or just wait it out until the market signals some stabilization.I know NYC is different than the rest of the country but...just being prudent as well...

Any opinions?

Thanks to all who provided concised, useful comments. As a first-time home buyer I am a bit cautious since this is unfamiliar territory. To paraphrase Shilling, 2012 could see a drop up to 20% in housing prices - I'd like to hear your opinion on whether NYC will be affected, or is it insulated from this drop, and why you think so? My friend who is a commercial broker told me that the second recession may starts as soon as September of this year. That means interest rate will go up so even if the prices go down it will still be a wash. My finances will be ready in a couple of months.

"If I were to rent out - do you think there would be enough interest from renters to rent at $4500 (which seems to be a reasonable going rate for a brand new, full service condo in Tribeca)a condo that has a "bedroom/office" space squared off in to a open loft space? Good closets, W/D...etc the standard nice condo..."

No.

Xanth--It is impossible to predict what the market will do going forward. If there is another major economic downturn then NYC will be affected, though by how much is anyone's guess. So far NYC real estate has held up remarkably well in comparison with the rest of the country, though it definitely did take a tumble in 08-09. Just not as large a tumble as seen in other areas.

I agree with Kyle's take on things--if you want to buy and find the 'right' place--one that you intend to keep long-term and can comfortably afford-- then buy. Nothing is certain--even in a booming market collapse can be looming just around the corner.

cykang--$4500 a month for 855 sq ft seems a bit high, even for Tribeca.

Cykang, a similar apartment to what you are contemplating, apartment 6K at Riverhouse, has been listed for rent since late March. Now while the apartment hasn't rented, and is 300 more that 4500, in 08/09 it was going for 3900-4K. Of course this similar apartment is also listed at 50K more than the price of the similar apartment you are looking at. For 4800, or for 975K, you get no view, and you compete with the new Milstein green buildings. Unfortunately, to get the place rented, someone's also got to do condo paperwork and fees, and one side or the other is paying a broker to get it filled (plus the owner has to deal with at least 1 month no rent). Now of course, this apartment is similar, I'm sure the apartment you are looking at has some differences that make it more attractive.

... for 855 CLAIMED sq ft

With the $1mm already saved by not buying at peak, I am going to Paris and London w my two little ones and my lovely wife. Obtw, I bought all of us first class tkts. Shhhhhhhhhhh. It's a surprise for my wife.

To the lemmings that have bgt and for everyone else hoping and praying to the rainbow unicorns To shit gold bricks for housesitting.... Enjoy your hot summer and the 15 yrs of sitting on a POS, only to find the egg will never hatch. Angry Turds!!!!!

Nutin like wasting your middle age wondering when you can sell, just ask any 55yo that lived in a 1bdrm coop in 1990. 35 to 55 to be able to sell. Fmaozzzz. That was my old boss. 20 yrs.

67th, you're spending $1m on a trip to Paris and London? That should be fun!

w67!! don't take them to paris and london in the dead heat of summer! it's miserable, change those tix for something by the sea! go to sardinia or capri, or better yet go to dalmatian coast!

You have to want to be there long term like everyone else is saying or its really not worth it.

That being said, prices in my East Village coop are now only 2.1% off peak. I don't see them going above peak, but I also definitely do not see them falling absent Lehman II.

tech...prices are at peak in most Manhattan hoods.
xanth...u don't have a crystal ball so if u can afford it then buy it, enjoy it and forget about the price. Start looking @ what u can sell it for in about 30 years.

"if u can afford it then buy it, enjoy it and forget about the price. Start looking @ what u can sell it for in about 30 years."

Xanth - I'm sure you figured this out, but SteveF is the cautionary tale of Streeteasy. He took his own advice - "forget about price" - and bought at the absolute tippy-top of the market. Now he has no choice but to look at what he "can sell it for in about 30 years".

You can take advice from anybody, of course, but probably best to ignore those who made horrible buying decisions and are now underwater.

The risk to the NYC RE market is the banks -- something I have been saying for a very long while on this site and it is now beginning to happen. The European banks are insolvent. It is finally being widely reported in the mainstream press. So NYC will lose a large % of foreign buyers. The Euro is certainly heading down and the ECB can't prop it up forever.

In addition, NYC RE has long been correlated to Wall Street and the banks. Not only is that sector losing jobs but new pay structures moved bonus money from cash to stock options. And the stocks continue to tank. Barclays is down 8% today. Do you think that any of the masters of the universe at Barclays will be overbidding for apts in the foreseeable future? And Goldman earnings are not predicted to be great. Morgan Stanley is in the toilet. And even if the economy picks up as widely predicted in the second half of the year, the contagion risk of Euro banks will persist. Lehman II is more than possible. Even probable. The Euro crisis is so dire and so well telegraphed now that the markets don't even bother to reflect the political crisis in the mideast or oil.

apt23, we're not friends or anything and this is probably a dumb question, but how do you think this will affect to hotel/hospitality prices in european resorts frequented by foreigners? lower to attract/maintain business or higher to cover higher costs of everything? reliable to make plans further out ahead of time or see if the entire country goes on strike? since you like doing analysis can you please explain to me and any other grateful parties how you see the euro crisis affecting the tourism sector. than you.

thank you

And how will it affect the woodworking ateliers in County Cork?

Xanth...this guy PUTZ as you can probably guess has balls the size of raisins and missed the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy during the great crash of Sept 08-March 09 and as you can tell he's a little frustrated. Don't do what he did. The only thing you have on your side is that you are younger today then you will be tomorrow and in purchasing real estate it's "The younger you are the better"

shut up alan. was that stupid question? it's pretty general. she must have an opinion, i would appreciate it if she shared it.

in fact, paris has been quite cool over the last few weeks

And xanth SteveF is exactly the type to ignore--he is desperately trying to convince all (and himself apparently) that his tippy top purchase has been other than a blunder

beware the "long term" plan--unforeseen shit comes up all the time--illness--partner you want to move in with--superior professional situation in othe city--if you buy, try to buy well given current context of the market, and try to buy at a time where you can reasonably expect appreciation in value sufficient to offset the usally greater cost of ownership--

and be careful--there are lots of people biting on carelessly purchased real estate, which has put a long term fuckjob on them financially--growing old and staying broke--in a home they love!!

Putzhead I don't know where u got the underwater thing from. But son I'm far from underwater I'm in the freakn Sahara....

haha...where do u bears come up with your sh-t? too freakn funny...

"beware the "long term" plan--unforeseen shit comes up all the time--illness--partner you want to move in with--superior professional situation in othe city--if you buy, try to buy well given current context of the market, and try to buy at a time where you can reasonably expect appreciation in value sufficient to offset the usally greater cost of ownership"

Also make sure you'll always be in a position to extricate yourself from the property within a reasonable amount of time if personal or economic circumstances force you to take employment in another city.

Or be able swing a sublet both legally and financially (if the fair market leasing price falls short of your monthly mortgage and maintenance).

All of those condos you bought in 2007/08 are in the Sahara?

steviepompoms--your brain's the size of a raisin--why you wastin time over here--

you should be calculating what your little shithole dynasty will be worth in 30 yrs, even tho it's likely the bank will own it long before then

wow funny putz.......I'm waiting for our other bear to wake up and crawl out from under that Geico rock. She should be pushing it away very soon now. Rubbing her eyes.

Wbottom ohh be quiet and just keep paying off your landlord's mortgage...ouch

and take your tax write offs....double ouch.

focus people!! europe! up? down? if a hypothetical person wanted to go to the amalfi/capri area in late september early october (which that person has done many times before, it's def still warm enough) shoudl this compeltely theoretical person follow conventional wisdom and book early or wait and see what happens?

no dont, head down to another festival in the poconos--and pls provide details--i cant wait to get down there!

just think a renter pays off the landlord's mortgage and gives him/her his tax write-off. By renting you are giving your govt gifted income tax write-off to your Landlord. Such generosity! I'm getting all misty...

xanthaned, my $0.02: in general, I'd ignore pretty much anyone here who seems to be vying so desperately for your ear (and they are present on both ends of the spectrum). That should usually set off all sorts of red flags labelled "agenda much?". On a side note, I know you specifically asked for advice from brokers (and I believe no one who's posted here is one of those), but in your shoes, I'd rather speak to a trusted and independent financial advisor. Though in the end, as kyle said, use your own noggin and use it well.

i was being helpful you jackass. some people enjoy other people and like do things that bring differents kinds of people together. not you, you freak. yes, i am a regular in the fabulous destination of the world and i am about to become regular at the less fabulous though cheap local destinations that offer a good time. stfu and answer my question!

please

you guys suck

Nationally, there's been a lot of debate about the supply/demand picture; foreclosures, the argument goes, aren't being processed as quickly as they need to be, so the market isn't bottoming as quickly as one would have hoped.

However, most of the aggregate stats are skewed by states that are really getting creamed: California, AZ, NV, and FL (which Michael Lewis famously called "the sand states") and a couple of Rust Belt sufferers (notably MI).

You want to look at a more local picture, though. There is certainly a "shadow inventory" issue here (again, you can search these boards for other threads that debate that as a factor) but it's nowhere near what it is in the states mentioned above.

In NYC, the driver of prices is generally employment; prices crashed in 2008 after Lehman fell, and then began to recover (there are lots of separate threads on these boards that debate how much) as it became clear that lots of people in the city were still working.

So a call on whether you think that prices are going to fall another 20% is generally a call on what you think the jobs forecast for the city will be.

Through in a pinch of what you think the impact of Atlantic Yards redevelopment is, and a pinch of what you think the future is for local schools in whatever Brooklyn target neighborhoods you decide to go after, and you've got the info to make a decision.

Lucille -- obviously a hypothetical decisionmaker would weigh the cost of waiting by measuring the risk of being locked out of one's target area and having to go for vacation plan B. Without knowing that cost, an optimist would simply say to book the bird in hand.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

lucille, flight to Naples for $850, ain't half bad. How much cheaper do you think it'll get? This is officially way off-topic.

^^ "throw in," not "through in" -- forgive me for multi-tasking.

ali

thank you so much for answering! i guess my real fear is of everything shutting down due to strikes resulting from the new austerity.

bjw2103, i know it's off topic but i think still more relevant than the bear/bull argument that's been going on between the same people with the same positions for years now. and they hijacked the thread first. that does sound good, which also brings in my other fear of higher fuel prices raising flight prices. there is no way i get locked out of my target hotel in that area. it's not one of the bold facers down there and i only know about by accident because i've hung out there for years. it's a tough call for me because i've never gone to the continent with kids, and sticker shock for travel for 4 people vs. 1 or 2 people is pretty shocking. they're little! why do they even count as real people? but they do. so, i'm torn. but thank you for answering.

bjw2103 - thank you. I came to realize that many posters on this forum seem to be familiar with one another, even if it's not on a friendly term. I apologize that my serious question inadvertently started a verbal war.

xanth..no problem We have to do a smackdown on the bears once in a while...

Alan, is there a Rip Van Winkle Bridge in County Cork?

Lucille, re amalfi/capri in late September, early October, why not just try the Mediterranean climate of San Francisco?

Lucille - as I am sure you know, in England,France and Italy they strike at the drop of hat, doesn't have to be in reaction to any "new austerity". I remember a charter bus trip from Paris that was supposed to take 25 minutes to an event site outside the city - well, sudden transit strike, massive traffic jams, got there 2 1/2 hours late. (Thankfully the festivities went on even with the late arrival).

>Red flags labelled "agenda much?".

Who speaks like that? You, aboutready, ninnies?

And re: flights- IMHO if you see a really good fare, grab it.
And would love to know the hotel that you like in that area (don't worry, I'm not heading in that direction any time soon, but like to note things like that for future reference).

xanthed, don't worry about it. This is a fairly tame thread, and these things happen regardless of the question asked half the time.

steveF, it ain't about that. You're not alone, but a lot of your posts are negligent at best. I think you're as guilty of trying sway others as some of your most outspoken critics.

huntersburg, your ninnyish malarkey knows no bounds.

ph41, no problem. i think another reason that it gets ignored is that it's not that fancy. but it's very nice, big light rooms, very new and "americanized" baths, most rooms have the million dollar views of the fragiolini rocks, all the rooms on that side have balconies and terraces, other side is dirt cheap. on the website, in pic 1 of marina piccola, it's the orange building in upper left. easy walk to marina piccola (which is where all the italians who stay there swim, not the bay side, since that where ships dock and we all know what ships do when they dock), pics #2 and #3 is what you see from your window basically. the breakfasts are very good, and suprisingly diverse for italy, you do pay extra for those though they are not included. there are computers in the lobby and i believe free wifi. what i think rules this place out for most people who aren't regulars to the island is that it's so far from town, but again, most italians who have houses there or even come in for the day, stay on that side, not the bay side. the hotel provides a free mini bus that goes to and from town regularly, dont' remember the time of the latest one, but it's well after closing time in town. you just have to plan your day according to that schedule, which i guess people don't like. but they'll pick you up at the dock and bring you back for free as well as the transpost between hotel and town. it's a very short easy walk to the beach at marina piccola, and there are little cafes there where you can eat and drink and be merry. it's not super fancy, it is exactly what it looks like in the pics. the crowd there is less american (because i think americans who go to capri are of a certain state of mind and means that they stay at the very very upscale hotels), european, lots of germans, lots of italians (which is a good sign) scandanavians, swiss, etc.

http://www.hotelweber.com/en/index

lucille: I have no idea. I think that the Euro will fall by September but the ECB has printed so much money, inflation is likely to kick in soon so it might just be a wash for travelers. The only solution for Europe is a TARP type fund and there is no political will for that so they might just keep pretending that they are coming to some resolution to save the PIIGS. But the Euro will break down eventually. Who knows when. Maybe after the US passes debt ceiling.

Why don't you go next year, you might be able to pay in euros. In Capri, be sure and go to Da Luigi. The best Lobster Fra Diavolo on the planet.

you might be able to pay in lire.

"Lucille, re amalfi/capri in late September, early October, why not just try the Mediterranean climate of San Francisco?"

i hate cold and dampness

oh i see it doesn't have free internet anymore. they jacked up the prices! lazy commie f*ckers. rooms are still cheap though. and you just bring your iphone.

thanks apt23

"Why don't you go next year, you might be able to pay in euros."

Wow. apt23, I get the logic in trying to play the market timing game for real estate purchases, but vacation? That's a bit much for my tastes. Do you use NPV on vacay money?

Thanks Lucille - the rooms do look very nice (and large for Europe) - and the terraces look amazing. Will definitely keep this one in mind.

The longer you hold, the less the rent vs. buy decision matters. Want to buy but worried about risk? Buy smart and hold long.

I agree with both Wbottom and steveF which means I agree with bjw.

There is a report out today from Deutsche Bank with housing market predictions for the next couple of years.

New York metro area is project to fall by 10%.

http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/7449-9ED4/66315292/0900b8c083a95443.pdf

I am keeping an eye on certain Bklyn neighborhoods and I can tell you that prices have without a doubt been falling in neighborhoods like Windsor Terrace, Flatbush, Ditmas Park, Prospect Park South.

These are the areas that only caught the very tail of the last big up-cycle in prices and the gentrification hadn't really had time to settle in.

You can see in many listings on Streeteasy for these neighborhoods that co-ops are being put on the market for asking prices lower than their last sale price. Right now the asks are about 10% to 15% lower but none of these places have sold yet. Hard to say how much lower the prices will be when these things really do start to close.

I can't speak for prime neighborhoods, as I don't watch them too closely -- they are out of my price range. My impression is that Cobble Hill has not fallen but that Bklyn Heights has dropped a little bit -- less than 10% for sure. Boerum Hill may have dropped a few percentage points. Maybe Ft. Greene and Clinton Hill too.

My guess is declines will come more slowly to the higher-end neighborhoods in Manhattan, but that the non-prime areas are right now seeing the biggest declines.

Here is an example of one in Clinton Hill that last sold for $436k, and is now being offered for $375k.

That's a price drop of 14%, assuming it sells for the asking price (unlikely).

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/607350-coop-277-washington-ave-clinton-hill-brooklyn

It "last sold" in 2006 - period leading right at the beginning of the bubble - so what's the big news about the 14% drop now? Thought you were going to post a 2009 sale, and THEN show a 14% drop.

With the transaction costs, a drop of 10% (which is very possible) would wipe out your downpayment if you had to sell because of a job or family change. It's fine to buy if you are pretty certain to be set over the long-ish term (10 years+), or you can afford to lose your downpayment should you have to sell in a few years.

I don't understand your question, ph41. Only price drops since 2009 have any significance?

I think the question in the post is, are prices on a stable trend line, trending up or trending down? The answer appears to be, you can't buy now in areas like Clinton Hill with the expectation that your price will go up, or that they will even meet the pricing level of 2006.

Isn't that worse than a price comparison to 2009? It would be one thing to say, I can't get a 2009 price for my co-op. But to say I can't even get a 2006 price for it -- that's worse, it seems to me, and indicates a deeper price decline.

cheers, GG

GG, you're looking in a different market than ph41 usually sees. certain submarkets showed remarkable resilience during the first two or so years after lehman. small units, certain condos, downtown other than fidi, and certain areas outside of prime manhattan defied conventional wisdom (until you consider financing implications, for at least some of these).

2006 pricing isn't close to peak for up and coming brooklyn, which showed even greater appreciation rates than many manhattan neighborhoods, and actually seemed to keep on going up after the crisis, kind of like the studio/small one bed market in manhattan. the latter market seems to be showing signs of rolling over and dying, and i have to wonder about some of the areas in brooklyn you're looking at as well.

cheers all around,
ar

toodleoo,
hb

is hb constipated or something? i think he forgot a letter, toodleLoo.

or totheloo.

constipated? No, I wasn't using the British stick up the ass version, but rather the street version.

girlfriend! how the hell areya! how was the trip? anything strike you as extra memorable this time around? share! will tickets to naples (or even rome) be cheaper in 2 months?

Right, how rude of me, thanks lucille for reminding me.

AR, we'd love to see the photos. Are they up on facebook? The whole time I was following you on twitter and saw no tweets, I felt a bit left out, but then sometimes you need to get away.

she lets you follow her on the twitter? lucky. she blocks my ass.

I used to get the tweets through my News of the World online account.

Cost of airfare to Europe is much lower after Labor Day. For example, tickets are $800 on BA for the 3rd week of Sept. and $750-ish for the 3rd week of Oct.

Not upfront they aren't that price.

Oh, sorry, I thought we all needed to compete with w67thstreet.

10023, i know i've been watching for few weeks now. it's cheaper for first and second week of october, which is when we would go, but those are current prices right? they might go up if fuel goes up like they did in the past...or they might go down if everyone in europe loses their jobs and becomes suicidal and in no mood for a little holiday and they need to stimulate some tourism. and if something that i don't quite understand happens to the euro. i think i'll wait for another month and if there's no movement i'll start bitching about actually buying the tix. or we'll just nix the eurotrip and go somewhere on the east coast where we can drive and bring the dog. i'm just being annoying because i haven't taked the kids there yet and it's so expensive to travel!

who do you think is buying this bullshit?

"Not upfront they aren't that price"

i actually did find a flight for $715 but it's aeroflot. not 100% confident in their record. then there are always super cheap flights into german hubs like dusseldorf or frankfurt and then we could drive down which could be cheaper than train tix for 4 to naples. europe is so small, it's easy to drive whereever you need.

lucille, all i can say is that i tried to price a trip for next summer (and given that my dates were not yet available i just plugged in later dates for this summer to get a general idea) involving a multi-stop trip, all domestic but including hawaii, and four legs totaled a mere $950 dollars (which is very, very low from a four-year or so travel perspective, high oil prices or not). airline prices, except for random seats available due to chance, rarely seem these days to fall below a certain level in the us. in europe it seems to be a bit different. one tip, especially with young children, take the day flight to london, and then fly out the next morning. it will generally be much less expensive (many BA flights are only $100 or so one way) and much less aggravating. stay at some corporate hole like the heathrow sheraton, which has a great pool that has a glass ceiling that makes you think you're not a mile from the airport.

both last year and this i bought tickets to europe early and would have saved by buying later (airfare). in terms of local costs if countries are doing poorly i think you can pretty much expect higher taxes on things like hotel rooms. in terms of your purchasing power i think the euro has some ways to fall, so i wouldn't pre-pay for any hotel rooms. if you're doing the london route make sure you do a separate search for virgin, the cheapest flights don't show up often on expedia, etc, for some reason.

i wouldn't worry about strikes increasing in italy, they are always a factor. a friend of mine, who is italian, was on a train 25 or so years ago. they announced that the workers would be on strike for three or so hours. she got off to find something to eat, and while she was off the strike was resolved and the train left less than one hour after the strike had started (without her). luckily she spoke italian and eventually found her luggage.

anyway, thanks for letting me annoy you guys.

no prob

it's not just fuel prices, some airlines have hedged that. it's demand. and if fuel prices are driving up prices now it likely will affect demand, just like it did in 2008-09. economically people are feeling fairly stretched again. things are on your side lucille.

thanks ar! i think you're right about the lack of demand possibly maybe pushing prices down but there not being that much of a risk in them going up. i've gone there every which way possible as a single person with all kinds of stupid connections and loops just to be cheap, can't do that with the little monkeys though. if we seriously really really do go, i might get us to germany and drive down. maybe if we're feeling adventurous we'll take one of those internal euro discount flights that don't need fuel because they run on people's sweat and prayers.

I've been buying ticket to London or continental via London for the last 14 years, every year. Mainly British Airways, sometimes Virgin, once or twice Delta/AA/Continental.

We have paid anything from $500 to $1000. $1000 was during a high-demand, high-oil price year and peak holiday season (August). I think $600 would be a great price and would jump on that. I don't see prices increasing for the fall (mainly due to demand/traffic) and I don't see any advantage in buying early for fall tickets.

Airfare can get a bit nutty - do your homework but don't drive yourself crazy. If you see a price you're comfortable with, save yourself the hassle. We've lucked out in recent years ($400 round-trip direct to Paris in June 09 and $640 round-trip direct to Barcelona this past June), but that was essentially our approach. Not worth the headaches.

thanks guys. 600 is my no hesitation number. and if the trip exceed my budget we just wont go, my girls are 2.5 & 4, it's not like they would even appreciate it. mr. lucille and i just always hung around europe alone and then together so we're feeling sentimental.

Lucille, have you considered vacationing in columbia county?

>>i actually did find a flight for $715 but it's aeroflot. not 100% confident in their record.<<

Forget Aeroflot (or as it is affectionately known--AeroFLOP). The planes are ancient. I flew on one inter-country back when it was still the USSR and it was like riding a flying bus--baggage just shoved above your head in open holders, commuter-train seats and a scary expulsion of steam on landing, which apparently was normal for that kind of aircraft. Wouldn't be surprised if that thing is still in the air...

By the way, if you're trying to get to Italy, have you considered flying into Milan? Generally far cheaper than flights to Rome, Florence, Venice. Be warned, though, that rental cars in Italy are quite expensive. We usually fly into Paris and then drive down if we're doing a longer trip that requires a car.

I'm seeing $776 RT NYC-Milan in October on several airlines--Wed-Wed departure/return.

Flamaoz.

Getting the $50k boob job and telling her kids to eat generic cereal to save money.

Flmaozzzzz. Yes let's drive an extra 7hours to save $70 on car rental.

"Getting the $50k boob job

is that what your wife told you her boobjob cost? because that would mean she conned you for roughly 35k. she sounds totally awesome!!

"Lucille, have you considered vacationing in columbia county?"

no