Is SE dying or is the market?

the trolls. fortunately we have gotten ride of aboutready but it isnt enough. w67 is a pig and must go. inonada is a snarky know it all who is reviled. columbiacounty, need i even get into it? wbottom is a closet racist. there are others, but these are the worst.

once again I failed to get even an honorable mention.

The folks you listed are the ones that made this board interesting and wrote about real estate.
The trolls made it intolerable.
Don't even get me started about the 2 digit IQ crowd...jim

and the market could not be duller...when no one is interested...that's your moment to fish for the winner.

the market is dull, along with the most vacationed month of the year.

though I'd call these;
Real estate for sale in Manhattan
We found 883 listings with Open Houses on August 28, 2011
Median price: $725,000 Median size: 950 ft² Median price per ft²: $946

......highly motivated sellers

And if the forecast is correct....there will need to be some pretty motivated buyers to show up on Sunday.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/605988-condo-135-west-70th-street-lincoln-square-new-york

Here is about a 10% price drop. The origianl price was ridiculous but given the Broker what else would you expect. Regretfully, they wastedf three months and now it's stale. The apartment next door that closed in March is 50 sf more and sold for 1.8 MM. I wonder if this building ever had this much of a drop in price in any other sale?

It's SE, I'm afraid. Sales are slow, as is usually for the season, but we are busy between renters and board packages. Unfortunately, this site hasn't be much of a good "coffee break" lately.

ali

Wow Ali. You take a lot of coffee breaks.

And let me correct you once again. It's slow bc the shitstorm is around the corner. Obama wants to let every home'owner' get a 3% 3yr ARM. Buffett just got the BofA put from bernie while ROME burns.

Flmaozzzzz. I miss apt23. Where is she to take a victory lap?

Victory lap for what? You don't think that August (and the summer in general) is usually slow? How many eggs have you counted so far?

Aren't you in apt23's backdoor?

By the way, exactly how is chickenlittle23 correct?

w67 keeps waiting for the corner but hes actually stuck on a circle

Yes Marco, we all know that dogs chase their tails.

Unfortunately for SE, 67, who used to be kind of funny, 67 is basically now just a classic bore, who repeats the exact same thing constantly no matter what's going on, and doesn't realize that the same "joke" over and over ceases to be funny.

how many more times will you say the same thing?

We'll find out in the fall. Currently, macro discussion is dull because the market is directionless; micro discussion is pointless because there are so few fresh, interesting properties.

If the "signal-to-noise" ratio improves as vacation season ends, new inventory arrives and the impact of recent financial turmoil shows up in closed deals, there might be hope for this board. Otherwise, I'm afraid the terrorist trolls may have won.

Buyerbuyer, your expectations for a talking ape are a bit high.

Unfortunately, this site hasn't be much of a good "coffee break" lately.

Well said, and get ready for Brick Underground to use your quote when they do a story on the changes of SE!

This board is like a VIX for the NYC housing market.

I hope they know how to use quotation marks.

Bill,
did you see the giant egyptian sitting on the edge of the terrace?

It's like living in Karnk!

It also explaines why the seller is living on the banks of de-nile.

Ho Ho, falco your Egypt joke is so funny.

jim_hones10
about 5 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse the trolls. fortunately we have gotten ride of aboutready but it isnt enough. w67 is a pig and must go. inonada is a snarky know it all who is reviled. columbiacounty, need i even get into it? wbottom is a closet racist. there are others, but these are the worst.

Just read through and see the contributions of Columbiacount and w67. Popular fellows. Bad for the board.

Site hasn't been the same since administration basically told regulars not to post much anymore. Too bad. It was a great place to come and have conversation. Now it's like pulling teeth.

falcongold1, I saw them for years. There are two of them, the other one is the apt next door off that terrace. It's a small outdoor space, but the artifacts make up for it. When this building opened in the early 80's it sold out fast. It has been a who's who for years. I don't know about now, but they did command a higher price through the years.

"I hope they know how to use quotation marks."

A point well taken, now we're in business!

Bill728 is MidtownerEast.

I don't see a sea change in real estate thinking, so we're hearing the same old....
which can get tiring

From my perspective, a lot has to do with trolling and the posting or irrelevant personal discussion threads.
Also, to some extend, a refusal to engage to consider really serious issues.

The financial crisis has masked our era's real problem: unanticipated or unadjusted for advances in artificial
intelligence, communications technology, computer and internet pipleline ans speed, robotics and cloud computing
have destroyed and continue to destroy far more jobs than normal economis can create.

We seem to entering a malthusian era in which much of the human population is economically useless and cant
support itself: example: the Wall Street Journal and/or Barron's recently reported that:

i. 61.5% of American 25 and older who lack high school diplomas are unemployed
ii. only 56% of 2010 college grads had gotten a job one year after graduation, 48% at
jobs not needing a college degree

That displacement trend is currently worsening and portentous for unbalanced budgets, federal and
state tax revenue, consumer spending and demand, business investment in the USA, RENTS AND RESIDENTIAL
HOUSING PRICES, domestic political stability, and the prospects domestically but particularly abroad in
lesser developed nations of famine, epidemic, civil war, terrorism, cross-border wars, and genocide.

For people seriously interested in real estate as an investment, those issues should be of paramount
interest today. But on SE we dont discuss them amongst the deluge of fatuous and politically imbecilic
postings, such as those of Socialist.

>The financial crisis has masked our era's real problem: unanticipated or unadjusted for advances in artificial
intelligence, communications technology, computer and internet pipleline ans speed, robotics and cloud computing
have destroyed and continue to destroy far more jobs than normal economis can create.

They said something similar when the wheel was invented. I believe it was tent23 who kept saying that the sky was falling and now that there was a wheel, there were fewer people needed to carry chariots.

an excellent long term plan is to limit families to one child.
want a second, get the permit, pay the fee and be prepared for an added taxation to cover the civil and educational costs of the increased burden. I'm not telling you what to do, I'm telling you to pay for what you do.
The days of big daddy government NEED to come to an end. We are out of money. The labor market has changed forever. America is not returning to any glory days. This is a country past it's prime. We need to downsize on every level over the next 4 generations. I'd like to see the birthrate cut by 75% and the energy consumption (wrt fossil fuels) cut by the same.
I'd reduce social spending in a way that would telegraph the message 'sink or swim'.
I'd make it clear that the last relief check goes out in December 2025.
that gives everyone time to retool their brain, it gives a generation a chance not to follow a losing game plan.
America only has one hope...Education
By the way, India and China are kicking our ass at that also.

>an excellent long term plan is to limit families to one child.

Why not just do it the old fashioned way and have more wars?

More plagues and dirty water too.

The trolls have scared me away. Who feels like shifting through off-topic, after off-topic comments? Oy!

P.S.
Some of the trolls don't even live in NYC. WTH!!

"get ready for Brick Underground to use your quote when they do a story on the changes of SE!"

se talk is newsworthy? what "changes"?

wavedeva
about 9 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse P.S.
Some of the trolls don't even live in NYC. WTH!!

thank you for clarifying

lucille lives in morris county nj. that isnt part of ny.

Its SE, imo. (1) Painfully unhumorous and typically indecipherable endless stupid posts by grayed-out people and those who cannot stop themselves from engaging them. (2) lack of moderators to keep threads on point. (3) Pervasive threads on topics not related to NYC RE; macro global economics is not what people come here for aside from the prolific posters clogging the board on such topics--over 350+ posts on the price of gold primarily from the same few people. Really? Here? B-O-R-I-N-G. Not what people come here for other than the 1/2 dozen who compulsively participate. (4) Needlessly abrasive, coarse, and often enough cruel replies to those who do try to post legitimate questions or responses. I confess that in the 4 years I have posted here, I have erred at times and could a handful of posts I wish had been more temperate. But I do not focus here on the occasional sharp elbow--I mean those who rarely engage in civil discourse and come across in virtually all their posts as generally unlikeable and angry people.

When this forum began heading in that direction a couple of years ago, it was easier to ignore the "noise" and to focus on relevant NYC RE substantive discussions. But at this point with 90% of posts/topics seemingly garbage--especially the endless idiotic personal banter and highjacking of virtually every thread by these same people, it becomes exceedingly tiresome to sift the forum for fun or useful NYC RE content.

jim_hones10
3 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse lucille lives in morris county nj. that isnt part of ny.

you remember this, which i mentioned maybe once, but you deny knowing i have children, whom i mention all the time and in fact started a thread, the premise of which ended up being wtf to do with them in the summer once you run out of the usual suspects? sloppy. very sloppy, jim.

come on, people. the streeteasy neighborhiid bar is dying because the regular got to know eachother a little too well and didn't like what they found. it's not more complicated than that. new people don't post outside of the occasional singular real estate/housing realated query because what person in their right mind would regularly hang out on a real estate message board if they hadn't been there from the beginning and feel themselves for better or worse a part of that community? *i* post here now because it's a habit and i "know" the "people" here. if you think our company and conversation is interesting or stimulating enough for a non distrubed newbie who happens to come across this board to stick around, boy do you guys think way too highly of yourselves.

once again - KW is right on target. I think however, that the overall condition of NY RE contributes to the deterioration of discussion on SE. Stale / lousy inventory, fewer new developments coming on the market, and the overall sense that real estate is no longer a "no brainer" as an investment are all reflected in the discussions here.

everyone got to know eachother way too well, split into factions, and got stupid. or rather, showed that they're just not as interesting as they may have seemed in small doses. it's not because there is less real estate talk- there was always a mix of conversation. what changed is you used to think the people saying it were smart and worthy of your reverence. fast forward several years of petty fights, weird insights into their lives and general state of mind, other points of view, etc. everyone just became more human and lame and just not as interesting. it's ok to admit this.

How about some nutcase that is re-living his Nazi Youth from upstate New York?

Or some guy who seems smart and well intentioned consistantly bragging about how well he can lease an apartment in NY, but actually giving completely off-base un-market unrealistic advice that will turn out to be a waste of time for naive renters? Should he not be called out on that?

And how about the pollyanna dirty ape and his pollyanna tax-avoiding friend23 who never have seen the bright side?

"everyone just became more human and lame and just not as interesting."

except alanhart. who should come back now that he's surely over the initial insult of being trolled. shed a tear cause im missing you, alan. you can't possibly like drinking alone. come back!

I agree with lucille

good point above by one of that "bad" trolls. columbiacounty calling everyone hfcsdfkghcomm FOR YEARS, and w67, despite this often brilliant insight and astute analysis, calling all potential buyers lemmings and idiots (on his good days) FOR YEARS, rarely get mentioned as part of the problem of driving people away. jimhones with his humorless pottymouth is pretty annoying, too. it's one thing to be profane, but gratuitous bad language without a humorous purpose or cultural reference is just vulgar.

huntersburg
7 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse I agree with lucille

i think you better, because it's pretty much the 2 of us against them, and they REALLY don't like us.

More worrying about columbiacounty calling someone after some arcane or unknown communication protocol, or just coming on and saying to various people simple "you're an asshole", is his recent fetish for Nazi salutes.

As for w67, there is no astute analysis. When have you seen him once provide an analysis of his $500psf?

was alan trolled? banned to grey? very sad, sad indeed.....

It's a bit of both, IMO. I think SE dropped the ball on troll-control: the results speak for themselves. As for the market, we are 3 years out from the end of the bubble and the slow resulting fizz. When was the last time you were at a party talking about your idea for a great Internet startup?

"I think SE dropped the ball on troll-control: the results speak for themselves."

no they don't. people always make cryptic haughty references to "the trolls" (which in itself is techincally trolling as it adds nothing of value except the writer's pointed separation from and implied superiority to said trolls) which trolls are you talking about?

If inonada offers bad advice, is that being a troll?

if inonada references Riversider's "cream cheese" out of the blue and without either provocation or context, what is that?

cmon lucille, now remember you were banned to grey at one point too. SE definitely dropped the ball on this one - i guess they can dumb down the board so that the innocents can be picked off like clay pigeons. very nice.

alan got trolled because he regularly and relentlessly went after one particular poster - truth. i got trolled because i got annoyed with columbiacounty for trolling me and started saying stupid sexual things to him and otherwise trolling him. while my own actions did get cc to leave me alone, i don't deny i still deserved to get trolled. and i just came back as another handle clearly belonging to the same person. it's no big deal. alan should just admit that he was maybe being not so nice, and come back. i'm not saying he didn't deserve it - he did, just like i did. but he liked the board and contributed greatly to it, and it's stupid to stop posting all toghether just because they won't let him keep messing with one person.

but truth is possibly the biggest idiot/piece of garbage i have ever encountered on any online forum, comments, anything

alan was an asset to SE---i think they grayed him and he siad sayonara

i like myself in gray

I agree completely with inonada and KyleWest below. I also miss the wit and insight from Alan, CC and Aboutready.

"i like myself in gray"

it makes your butt look bigger. WBOTTOM!!! HAHAHAHA ooohhh i crack myself up. oh! crack! hahahah

i miss vintage aboutready, too, as well a columbiacounty who still had a grip on things. i'm telling you, it's not "trolls" or whatever. it's the people you used to like that changed.

lucille you think to highly of yourself. i mistook you for a childless poster. actually i think so little of what you might have to say i thought you were another poster for the longest time

falco., why dont we just spay and neuter those with a sub six figure income?

Hones complaining about other people being trolls is the very definition of irony.

what about you midtowner east? please repost the last thread in which you gave anyone re estate related advice below.

"actually i think so little of what you might have to say i thought you were another poster for the longest time"

makes perfect sense

MidtownerEast - besides often having some namby pamby liberal stand-in host for Rachel Maddow or Lawrence ODonnell point of view -- and we already have Wbuttocks here so you are redundant in that respect -- WHAT have you EVER contributed?

>lucille you think to highly of yourself. i mistook you for a childless poster. actually i think so little of what you might have to say i thought you were another poster for the longest time

Oh, my head hurts, two of the personalities that columbiacounty insist are me are having an argument with each other.

This is no doubt good material for the brick underground expose -- if the story isn't picked up first by print media.

i'm like 50/50 if you're jim or not. there WAS that one very peculiar coincidence. though it could have been just that. but it's true that you're just not a vulgar person and he certainly is. still, 50/50.

I agree with lucille.

You think I'm Jim?

Cuz Jim thinks I'm you.

Others think I'm buyerbuyer.

Lately columbiacounty thinks I'm julia.

What was the very peculiar coincidence?

you are.

I'm a peculiar coincidence?

What about your recent Nazi fetish? How do you explain your posts on that subject recently?

How do you explain this:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27766-sp-downgrades-us-to-aa?page=2
columbiacounty
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse
Sieg heil.

or this:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27963-carving-out-small-bedroom
columbiacounty
2 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse
sieg heil.

Okay, further evidence the SE got it all wrong. like i said, clay pigeons......

Moderation would be nice. Does anyone know if the thumbs-up/thumbs-down voting has any real impact? Some other sites use those to send the nastier/off-topic comments into oblivion. Makes reading/following the conversation much better.

I'd give a thumbs down to anyone who gives advice but doesn't know basics. Like the difference between principal and interest. Such people are dangerous.

omg...of course bj is here to chime in....she's so predictable

Lucillebluth is a typical example of useless chatter (not saying offensive). Just look at this post itself.

thank you! it's not as easy as it looks though, i do work to perfect my craft.

You still haven't explained your conclusions about me and what caused you offense.

Streeteasy is powered by crème brûlée doughnuts, so I expect more from you Lucille.

What's there to say? Renting is for suckers. Renters are jealous bitter little roaches who can't stand that their co-worker is sitting on 100's of thousands of pure profit, tax free (Assuming they are like the 90% of owners who didn't buy in exactly 2009 or 2010....

or 2008
or 2007
or 2006
or 2005

or did a cash out re-finance
or lost their job
or need to move

you must be joking

I think that that the number of threads and posts is typical for a site like this. I post to a Porsche site and it’s very much the same. There are the characters (got some real dozies here) that look kind of addicted to posting a lot and thinking that anyone cares, and then you have the person that is looking for information or wanting to say something germane to the business at hand.

If the traffic seems slower without the grayed out ones, it probably is but is this site and the talk section providing useful information – certainly!

"and thinking that anyone cares"

"I post to a Porsche site"

>If the traffic seems slower without the grayed out ones

I read an old thread that said that aboutready was the most prolific poster

This board is for first-world whiners. But I visit almost daily.

Not every day but check in a few times a week.

I joined SE about 3 years ago and bought an apt a few months ago so my experience is that of an actual buyer who has taken advantage of the resources that SE provides. I’m not someone holed up in their flat afraid to act, waiting for $500 sq (for what shit hole is that?), and endlessly posting for no apparent reason.

Before SE only resource was looking at the New York Times RE section and listening to the broker drivel.

After SE I no longer used a buyer’s broker. Found listings that appealed to me and made appointments to see the place.

What I learned here:

Buyer’s broker not needed.
Negotiated lower commission (4 vs 6).
Refused to sign Dual Agency agreement.
Found ny attorney.
Advise on how to prepare coop board app.
Useful information about how to find competent architect and GC.

And not last by any means, a great deal of amusement in reading some of the posts.

The middle class is dying, and millionaires don't hang out on Streeteasy. They just write a check.

http://www.businessinsider.com/34-signs-that-point-to-a-rapidly-shrinking-american-middle-class-2011-8

ieb: Good post. We bought in July, and similarly benefited from the knowledge shared here by many excellent posters. I hope they won't be run off by noise.

Congrats BTW, West81st. I had heard it through the grapevine but didn't want to mention it until you did yourself.

Thanks 'nada. Given our circumstances as "inside" buyers in a recent conversion, our purchase shouldn't be taken as saying much about our view of the market, or of renting vs. owning.

In fact, some of the more ominous warnings I had read here about ownership have already materialized: In our first month, we've absorbed a 20%+ increase in RE taxes and a CC boost of about 8%. Ouch. Meanwhile, two days before we closed, DHCR rejected most of the Sponsor's main MCI rent increase application, which we had always assumed would be granted sooner or later. So our rent vs. buy analysis was pretty far off. Would we have made a different decision if we'd had the right numbers? I doubt it, though we might have held out for a better deal. It's not as though the Sponsor could sell the apartment to anyone else.

Well, that stinks on the MCI thing. Nevertheless, I'll try not to shed too many tears over it for you given your inside-buyer price ;).

Congratulations W81. That is great news. I miss the ability to fix a place up and I spend my days dreaming of newly skim coated walls. Enjoy your "new" abode -- as it is truly a new experience when it is finally yours to do with as you please.

West81st, I'll add my congrats. I'm sure you look forward to w67th's imminent flmaozzzzzzz. Welcome to the joys and headaches of home ownership.

congratulations w81!!

wonder how you would have written up your own house for one of your reports

congrats Westie!

It is still always a bargain if you can afford it and that is the home you want for the mid-long term.

Regarding the original question & discussion, we closed on our Manhattan co-op this past spring, after looking for four years. Some very useful info came from SE, but it was just a piece of the big puzzle. Relevant dribs & drabs probably amounted to 30%, and the grayed out garbage was around 70%.

I stay on this forum, rooting for the underdog.

Thanks all. And Lucille, since you asked so nicely...

219 West 81st St. (Avonova) #12K
Condo, seven into six rooms: 3BR/1BA + Maid’s BR & ¾ bath
Asks $2,995,000
CC: $1,706.96 (listed as $1,585.80)
RE Tax: $1,097.89 (listed as $861.48)

This listing gave me an opportunity to revisit the Avonova, three years after its ill-timed conversion. Financially, the project turned out poorly for the Shares of New York principals who acted as Sponsor, and for their backers at Avenue Capital. They bailed out in early 2010, leaving behind an awkward mix of about 40% unit owners and 60% rent-regulated tenants. The split is now about 50-50. The unsold units were purchased by RFR’s Classic Realty unit, which consequently controls the Board.

The building retains its prime location and stolid, pre-WWI Ajello exterior architecture. The interior common areas have been redone in a style that seems more suited to a building three decades younger. To be fair, those areas had become so dilapidated over the years that restoring them was not an option; still, the acoustic tile ceilings, square moldings and brown-painted doors in the hallways are disappointing in a “luxury” 1912 condo.

Another legacy from the original sponsor is a nice array of amenities: a roof deck with a panoramic view of the UWS skyline (Beresford/San Remo/Ansonia/Apthorp/Normandy/Eldorado), a spacious gym with yoga studio, a well-equipped playroom, a party/meeting room with kitchen, and bike storage. The amenities appear underutilized, probably because the sponsor’s tenants are barred from using them. Murophobics may find the prevalence of glue traps in the basement somewhat disconcerting.

The “K” line is the second-largest original layout and enjoys the best exposure; it's a typical front-facing, pre-WWI Ajello seven. The original DR and LR were probably rather narrow; merged into a single space – as in #12K and most of the line – they make a gracious multipurpose room. The ceilings are high, and the twelfth floor benefits additionally from arched window portals that draw in extra light. The other side of Broadway at 81st is built low, so the westward “sunset” views are open; although the backs of 440 and 450 WEA are drab, they are also quite far away.

Flow is good, with a well-defined bedroom wing that includes two front-facing BRs and a third that looks into a light court. The master has a slight river view that was probably a lot better before Calhoun expanded upward. All rooms are of respectable size, and storage is above-average for the era, including a walk-in closet in the MBR. The main drawback of the floorplan is the lack of a master bath; the three family bedrooms share a hall bath. This weakness will be a deal-killer for many buyers, though it is mitigated somewhat by a shaving closet in the MBR and a usable maid’s bath.

Condition is mostly original. The degree of renovation required will depend on the buyer’s needs and tastes. An electrical upgrade might be the first priority. Aside from some recently-added circuit breakers, the wiring appears original. (Ungrounded outlets with no GFI - even in the bathrooms - scream “DANGER”.) The apartment lacks a washer-dryer or modern climate control, another sign of antiquated infrastructure. The kitchen needs new appliances and countertops. Whether to replace the cabinets – other than the ugly, modern sink base – will be an aesthetic decision. There are walls of lovely oak and glass here, but also balky drawers and doors that don’t close properly.

The kitchen appears to be the only room in which the floor has been replaced (with ceramic tile that has apparently taken a lot of abuse from falling pots and pans). The parquet in the public areas shows some damage, but could probably restored; I’m not sure it’s sufficiently special to be worth saving. Floors in the family wing probably just need refinishing, but might wind up in a dumpster too once the job begins. The hall bath is original, and in good shape. The maid’s bath has been updated, with a walk-in shower. It could use another freshening, and would benefit greatly from the addition of a sink.

#12K does not show to its full potential. The inhabitants have clearly been there a long time and have accumulated a lot of junk. Like most long-term renters, have let the place go a bit and have no motivation to stage it. Nonetheless, the lack of inventory in this class may induce buyers to look past the mess and focus on the bones, details and location.

Pricing is tricky, as there have only been two sales in this line: #6K was renovated by the original sponsor and sold at the top of the market for $2.975MM; #11K was combined with several other units into a 5,000SF spread that sold for $8.1MM in 2008 and was subsequently resold for under $7MM. The current ask for #12K is just a reprint from the condo prospectus, so it may not even reflect the Sponsor’s current opinion of value. A recent 7.6% increase in common charges and a huge jump in real estate taxes - neither of which is yet reflected in the listing - certainly won't help. One can at least hope that the higher common charges may help the Board meet expenses without the assessments that have been needed in the past. On another positive note, the successor sponsor seems to be making a genuine effort to convert tenants into owners, which might make the building less of a pariah with lenders. How successful that effort might be remains very much in doubt.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/5551212-condo-219-west-81st-street-upper-west-side-new-york

nice!!! congratulations! and holy crap, is that your correct closing price? that's some discount! down green monster, envy is bad.

12K is an easy sell at an ask of 2.295m.

Lucille: The $2.995MM ask from the Black Book is a 2007 price that assumed total renovation. I think nyc10023 is shooting a little high on the value. $2.295MM would be $1300/SF - awfully rich, considering the condition issues and the status of the conversion. Most prospective buyers would see our beloved home as a wreck in urgent need of gut renovation and an extra bathroom. Works fine for us though.

BTW, that phony open-house report is a sanitized version of a parody I wrote a few weeks ago. The original is not suitable for publication.