Recession ending - you missed your chance to buy - again

this has got to be stevef

yea!! buy NOW or be priced out FOR EVER!!
Manhattan is an ISLAND you dope!! along with sri lanka, staten island, and other places - dont you get it?

obama will solve the crisis, and put windmills on all manhattan sky-scrapers!!

> Financial experts say recession ends by year's end

Wow, some people never learn.

The RE market bottomed FOUR YEARS after the 1987 stock market crash. That was at least 2-3 YEARS after the recession ended.

Funny part is, prices are still decliing, statistically faster than ever, and you are claiming the opening was 'missed'?

Actually, these were the same people who said we were "missing" our opportunity when prices were down 5%!

Some people just never learn!

I doubt the chance has been missed. Most of the housing market in other areas are showing slight up tick in sales since prices have been dropping in those areas for over a year. In some places prices have declined 50% thus making them more affordable to a wider buying pool. This has not yet occurred in NYC -- we always lag -- so whether the recession ends or not - the prices will still have to come down since the availability of buyers at previous price points has diminished significantly. I'm expecting pricing to continue to erode in NYC for the next 12 months.

12 months best case. Based on history, I think we're talking 24-36, if not more.

We have only BARELY begun to see the effects of a basically bankrupt state. The cuts are only beginning.

We started this 2 years late, and everywhere else is still falling. We're way behind the curve on this one.

Are these the financial experts that made this mess -

How long did it take USA to recover from The Great Depression of 1929?

how long did it take NY RE to recover from 9/11?

petrfitz,

I don't know, ask George W. Bush.

TamWatching,

Thats what I'm talking about.

nyc10022,

always makes her points and they are 99.9% valid :^).

petrfitz - 9/11 is not even remotely relevant to the current situation. It represented a one-time (hopefully) event, that scared people and therefore resulted in a short-term negative affect on the economy. The core fundamentals of the economy were not changed.

Whereas today, we have a meltdown in the stock market (yes, it's back to the high 7000's but a year ago, no one believed it would ever be that low), tightening of credit, stagnating wages, rising unemployment, etc. There are fundamental problems that will take time to play out in the real estate market. Probably a couple years.

hmm 9/11 shut down the stock market, caused Manhattan to be uninhabitable, the stock market to crash when it opened back up, trillions lost, jobs lost, etc.

9/11 was a short-term catastrophic event to the economy, but it was a one-time event, having nothing to do with business cycles, etc.

Right now, we have something totally different - economic changes due to core dysfunctions in the world financial market, and in the real estate market in particular.

This is too obvious, I am not sure why I bothered responding.

pjc,

9/11 partially the reason why were in this economic downturn now. The former president wanted too restore faith in the US economy and did so through RE. To name 9/11 a one-time event is true but to call it a short-term catastrophy is ridiculous and how dare you disrespect those who innocently died that day. As a nation were still suffering from the losses of 9/11. There is no way the WTC is gone and the national and global economy can function the same impossible.

"Unemployment Rates* (seasonally adjusted)
February 2009 January 2009 February 2008
New York State 7.8 7.0 4.6
United States 8.1 7.6 4.8
New York City 8.1 6.9 4.4
NYS, excluding NYC 7.6 7.0 4.8

*Data are preliminary and subject to change."

http://www.labor.state.ny.us/pressreleases/2009/March26_2009.htm

I am waiting for a cheerleader to tell us how great this is for the real estate market.

jason do you think that the people who are unemployed are from the demographic that would buy multi million dollar apartments in NYC or are they more typical of a renter?

petrfitz,

You do realize that a lot of people making extremely high salaries were recently laid off (and therefore unemployed), right?

The issue is that the jobs that gave them the ability to buy those multi-million $ apartments are not coming back. Gone are the days of bright young MBA's lured into IB by the huge salaries a bonuses and the ones that are left - big salaries/bonuses maybe not so much. In addition, a lot of executives don't live in NYC - they live out in the burbs. (CT, LI etc). gone gone gone are the days of the $1M studio --- plus new developments were built and priced for that market which has pretty much evaporated.

"You do realize that a lot of people making extremely high salaries were recently laid off (and therefore unemployed), right?"

Who? What? Where? When?

You mean these people aren't buying condos?

>> NYC jobless rate jumps to 8.1% in Feb.
Monthly increase in city's unemployment rate was the largest in more than three decades as the economic downturn accelerated.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090326/FREE/903269981/1051

8.1% OMG! please...and it's also a lagging indicator. unemployment is always highest right before recovery. The eceonomy is recovering right now. The Dow industrials are up 23% or 1,440 points from it's low. We are seeing favorable economic data and you don't hear much about layoffs in the news and on the street anymore. UNPRECEDENTED stimulus and money supply up the -how'r ya- means inflation by year end. More money in the system driving up wages, prices everything. It's beautiful to be an owner. What happened to the depression talk??

"hmm 9/11 shut down the stock market, caused Manhattan to be uninhabitable, the stock market to crash when it opened back up, trillions lost, jobs lost, etc."

And yet the stock market declined much more severely this time around...
And housing prices ALREADY declined much more severely...
And we have ALREADY lost BY FAR more jobs.

Some people just never learn.

Even if prices did drop it's b/c buyers just froze up. sales volume is down 50% from last year. Why? everyone decided to not want to buy in manhattan? of course not. they are waiting to see what happens and getting more and more anxious as the economy gets better. Buyers who bought in Dec-jan might have scored from a desperate seller. Not you bears.

"caused Manhattan to be uninhabitable"

??

Are you sure this is what you meant to say? Because I distinctly remember living in Manhattan before, during and after that episode.

You "experts" on streeteasy are all stupid and have no idea what you're spewing.

The economy is obviously recovering, the WS jobs will eventually come back, and manhattan will always be expensive and out of reach.

east_cider_ i guess that you didnt spend much time or live downtown during those days. My home and those of my neighbors was covered in toxic dust filled with asbestos, and PCBs and for about 3 months afterward it smelled like someone was buring a tires 24 hours a day inside our homes.

You dont remember that?

Also in 2008 sales volume was down from previous year but it was still the 4th best in the past 8 years......

"caused Manhattan to be uninhabitable"

??

Are you sure this is what you meant to say? Because I distinctly remember living in Manhattan before, during and after that episode.

lol

I think steveF is smoking something - most of the buyers are 'bears' I personally know of 5 people in my building including me that want to buy -- we realize that Manhattan will always be more expensive in relation to other cities -- but the prices got way way out of control here as referenced by people buying $1M studios and 1 beds, pricing over $1K/sq ft - absolutely ridiculous. couple that with restricive financing, high downs over 20% and high maintenance - not an ideal situation.

Clearly you don't live in the real world. NYT laying off, Google laying off, every major financial institution is still laying off. Expect to see them shed 10-20K more jobs not to mention the amount of job moving to india. where i work the majority of open positions (the few there are) are in India. With managers having to come up with plans to move 30% of existing jobs there. It's happening everywhere.

oh yeah - I also forgot to mention all that anthrax that was floating around the city. Remember everyone buying gas masks, and emergency kits??? Yeah 9/11 was no biggy.....

ncy10025 -- One of the most interesting factoids is the restrictions not only in financing, but in renting. In most other cities, if you lose your job you can rent out your house. If you get temporarily relocated, you can rent it out, too. In NYC -- not so easy. it will further depress the prices...

HUH??? "If you get temporarily relocated, you can rent it out, too" are you saying that you cant rent out your apartment in NY??? in the midst of the greatest RE turmoil of our lives Manhattan still has a .5% vacany rate. your point makes no sense whatsoever.

Pete,

If you look at a map, you'll notice that Manhattan stretches all the way up to the Harlem River. Obviously you lived in the Financial District or BPC at the time, and I acknowledge that there were a lot of temporary displacements due to the cleanup. But Manhattan as a whole was far from "uninhabitable." And anthrax? That was a media circus - hardly a threat to everyday life here.

petrfitz - his point makes perfect sense. a lot of nyc coops do not allow subletting (renting) or if they do not until after 2yrs of ownership and then sometimes only for a specific time period. ie you cna sublet the apartment every 5 yrs for 1 yr etc. when you own a home you can rent it out whenever as long as someone is willing to rent. that vacancy rate is going to rise. 5 people moved out of my buiding and there are leasing signs on building everywhere.

"My home and those of my neighbors was covered in toxic dust filled with asbestos, and PCBs and for about 3 months afterward it smelled like someone was buring a tires 24 hours a day inside our homes."

But all that's been true of the Lower East Side for years, and continues to be. I don't understand the point of your sentence.

i guess my point is that you are an asshole for dismissing 9/11 and for your moronic comments.

l o l

No one is "dismissing 9/11" or disrespecting those who died. Like many others, I personally know someone who died that day (FDNY). It was a catastrophe, we all agree. The point is that, as an ECONOMIC event for the nation, it was short-term. Whereas, what is going on now is systemic and long-term.

"jason do you think that the people who are unemployed are from the demographic that would buy multi million dollar apartments in NYC or are they more typical of a renter?"

Are your serious putz? Not sure if you checked recently, however three major investment banks have failed/been taken over. 20-30% of wall street has been shown the door, at least the same number of attorneys, including partners, not to mention all the real estate professionals from mortgage brokers to finance geeks to secritization originators.

That comment is just completely asinine and shows you cannot be anywhere close to the financial whiz you claim to be.

I think the recession does end this year but that doesn't bring back 300 K jobs. There was nowhere near the amount of layoffs when 9/11 hit. It wasn't even close.

pjc,

you are sticking to your guns which I like but are dead wrong. We are in this economic crisis today because of 9/11.

by 300K jobs I meant in salary not in numbers. the number of lost jobs is probably coser to a million in this metro area alone.

Not even mentioning that the Europeans haven't even begun to address their problems tothe extent we have. Those buyers are gone. Seriously, you ae a troll.

"ECONOMIC event for the nation, it was short-term" - hmm lets see. It spawned 2 wars where trillions of $$$ have been spent, caused the government to spend billions of dollars in homeland security, caused millions of soldiers to leave their jobs and homes and fight wars, caused American and foreign citizens to change every aspect of how they travel, influenced every aspect of American politics over the past eight years and will be seen as the most pivitol moment in recent history, but you say 9/11 was not systemic and less impactful than this real estate turmoil.

Were the fuck have you been living? Can you actually be that myopic to think this recession is more impactful systemically than 9/11??? do you even realize what you are saying.

petrfitz,

THANK YOU for putting it in words I could'nt because my blood pressure was up behind pjc comments. The glass is full the glass is 1/2 full theory will forever live.

it took the Dow 25 years to break the high made in 1929. the market dropped 48% within months then rallied 48% months after that. ultimately the market declined 89% in just under three years.

unemployment is still trending downward. pay specific attention to the continuing claims and the employment report issued by the bureau of labor the first friday of every month. the continuing claims has been steadily rising since basically '06 and just today came in 85k higher than estimated. the unemployment report everyone talks about is the U-3 report which is Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate). the U-6 report, which is Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers, is much higher at 14.8%.

moody's and s&p are paid by the same banks for whom they rate products. they have been in denial all along. on march 17th of last year they said lehman's long term outlook was stable. they cut lehman's rating one notch to A2 on july 18th and then lowered them to junk on sep 15th, the day after lehman declared bankruptcy. the ratings agencies are a joke.

"how long did it take NY RE to recover from 9/11?"

Clear display of total lack of understanding of the current situation by petrfitz. Could not be anymore transparent.

Did New York unemployment go up to 8% on its way to 10% after 9/11?

mmafia,

petrfitz, is disputing 9/11 had a short-term catastrophic effect on the economy.

It started with 9/11 then one event led to another event whats petrfitz.

...is saying.

can we all stop being pussies about 9/11, tiptoeing around the "respect" thing. everyone gets that it was horrific and bad. but we're allowed to talk about it without having to give 300 word caveats about how we're all patriots blah blah blah. 9/11 was bitch. let's get over it, people.

Anyone who thinks this recession is over is a moron. The market has been rallying bc of short covering, that's it, that's all. Has anything actually changed re economic data that points to the economy turning around (ie not getting worse)? No. I love how the people who have no clue about economics think the recession is over because equities have rallied 20% off a 12 yr low. Unemployment is still skyrocketing - the # of new unemployed is increasing, not flat or decreasing - it needs to be decreasing for several months before anyone can say the economy has turned. Just because you don't see layoffs in the news doesn't mean they're not happening. Most of the huge Q1 layoffs you saw announced at the blue chips are just now hitting unemployment. 95%+ of the banks in this country are insolvent and the situation is getting worse, not better - just wait until commercial RE defaults start hitting. And credit cards. And the newly unemployed start defaulting on their mortgages and credit cards. This thing has a long way to go - I wish it didn't but it does. Do you have any idea how long it takes for stimulus money to cycle through the economy and create a meaningful # of jobs? Years. Obama can't come out and say how bad it is - that would shred consumer confidence even more (if that's possible) - but if you have a clue about what's really going on you know how bad it is and that it's not getting better any time soon.

What's funny is, these are the SAME PEOPLE who said there would be NO CRASH. Now they're experts on when it ends?!?! Hell, they were in denial about it happening at all just a few months ago. Now they know for sure that its over!

ROTFL!

Wishful thinking from the bitter bubble buyers, I guess...

I laughed when I saw the words "Financial Experts". Are these the same 'experts' that never saw the meltdown coming?

I love how its the guy who wrote "dow 30k" who now has a book out "how to profit from the upcoming depression" or something like that.

BTW, dow back to a 12 year low. What was that about "missing" the recovery again?

WideStance: Love your screen name! Reminds me of a great joke:

A woman goes golfing, and gets stung by a bee. She's highly allergic and starts to swell up, and goes to see a doctor. She tells the doctor "I was just about to hit a shot, and I got stung by a bee!"

The doctor says "Where, exactly, did you get stung?". And the woman says "Between the first and second holes".

And the doctor replies "You must have a very wide stance!"

Bump!

stevef and petrfitz,

what i don't understand is how you went straight from denying that there was a real estate downturn to predicting the recovery. how can we recover from something that never happened?

more to the point, why should we take seriously anyone who denied blatantly obvious market movement for six months? prices are down 30% on average, that we know. we do not know where they are heading--the future is unknowable. but that doesn't mean we can't make reasonable suppositions. rents have now fallen as much as 20-30%, and they were already dramatically low relative to sale prices.

if you think prices are heading higher it would be useful to hear one serious argument for why that would happen.

"what i don't understand is how you went straight from denying that there was a real estate downturn to predicting the recovery. how can we recover from something that never happened?"

BRILLIANT!

That pretty much sums it up. Why listen to people who never saw what was coming, let alone don't acknowledge it when it's here.

I probably should start a thread but I'm lazy. HousingWire is reporting that Geithner is being asked to step down.

could that be an April Fools thingie?

of course

I don't consider myself stupid, but lord I can be dumb.

probably more a function of wanting the news to be true

2/18/2007
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $8,000,000.
11/02/2008
Brown Harris Stevens Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $5,900,000.
11/20/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $5,500,000.
02/03/2009
Price decreased by 11% to $4,900,000.
04/01/2009
Price decreased by 8% to $4,500,000.

Man, is the recession ending or what?

yeah, cc, i've never been a Geithner fan, but HousingWire seems like a strange venue for the April Fool's joke.

happyrenter - i never denied a real estate down turn. I always argued that there were investments - some neighborhoods, type of buildings etc that bucked the downturn. I always argued that the entire world and RE market was not doom and gloom I argued that some people would make money - lots of money during this downturn. When others like you and NYC10022 said that everything was losing value - I said not true some properties will appreciate.

Of course certain - alot of properties were overvalued and crashed. I just happened not to own any of those types. My properties have gained value over the past 2 years - proven by appraisers as I am refi'ing almost all my properties. My rent rolls have increased - proven by my tax returns. My costs have decreased - oil, lower loan rates etc.

I do think that we are near bottom. Even though the market will go up and down for the next few months.

I think that late this year or early next year developers will start looking at projects again. Maybe not out of belieing in opportunity but maybe out of necessity.

I'm with beatyerputz. brilliant. a classic.

my only question is how happyowner escaped being an addressee as well

happyowner too then.

petrfitz, this is an anonymous forum so anyone can say anything about himself and no once can dispute it. it is certainly within the realm of conceivability that you are married to a billionaire's daughter, that you have a net worth of $11 million (or was it $20 million? seems to depend on your mood), that you have discovered the world's greatest 'totally different' learning system for nursery school students, and that you are the only landlord in the entire city of New York who has an appreciating portfolio and growing rent roll.

look: if all you mean to say about real estate is that your own holdings are magically immune to larger market forces, then what's the relevance to anyone else? the immunity clearly doesn't transfer to those of us who didn't make mercenary marriages and don't hawk education fads. your properties are clearly so special that while the rest of the city sees rent declines of as much as 30 and 40%, your rents are shooting up. i'm happy for you. but the rest of us, who actually do feel the impact of larger market forces in our lives, would probably do well to ignore the advice of someone who has a miraculous economic vaccine to which we lack access.

happy renter - who claims to be a 27 year old financially independent education professional who doesnt have to work - my holdings are not immune to macro economic forces. My holdings just were not in the categories that were the most overinflated. I do not own any lux buildings with doormen. I own in the LES were several of my properties were rezoned to have more building capacity than previous.

My rents are up because I kep them low over the years - under market value. I also have no tenants that are financial industry.

there are macro market forces and local deviations. My holdings did not participate in the huge book like lux buildings in UWS, Tribeca etc. They did not rise as fast and they did not fall as hard.

"My properties have gained value over the past 2 years - proven by appraisers as I am refi'ing almost all my properties."

Appraisals are worthless - what matters is what a buyer is willing to pay - end of story. Try again.

"My rent rolls have increased - proven by my tax returns. My costs have decreased - oil, lower loan rates etc."

Good for you - what does this have to do with where the NYC RE market is heading??? Answer - nothing. BTW, rents are falling everywhere - are you magically immune to market forces?

"I do think that we are near bottom."

HUH????? Why, exactly? Please provide your rationale. ALL AVAILABLE EVIDENCE (CITED REPEATEDLY ON THIS BOARD) POINTS TO AN ACCELERATING DETERIORATION IN MANHATTAN PRICES - so somehow this is miraculously going to reverse course in the near term???? Get real!!!

"what matters is what a buyer is willing to pay - end of story. Try again." - unless you are not selling them now or anytime soon.......

"what does this have to do with where the NYC RE market is heading??? " - well it means that many landlords and building owners are making more cash on a monthly basis from their investments. Is that meaningful?? Hell yeah!

"ALL AVAILABLE EVIDENCE (CITED REPEATEDLY ON THIS BOARD) POINTS TO AN ACCELERATING DETERIORATION IN MANHATTAN PRICES" - maybe that is because all the "evidence" posted on these boards is posted by renters that do not own any properties and do not really understand what is actually happening. they post "evidence" that fits into their hopes and dreams that someday they will be able to own a property or to justify to themselves that it is OK that they have wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent over the past years while trying to time the market.

petrfitz, i've owned and i currently own. i currently rent in manhattan. quit buying into the argument that renters only do so because they can't buy. often that is true, but certainly not always. and, yes, i'll take my timing over the poor idiot who signed a contract for new construction in 2007 any day. if i had multiple millions and i had managed to retain them, i probably wouldn't care as much if that new construction apartment lost some money. but that only describes a certain segment of the market.

i have not wasted anything. i would have been paying double for similar product, would have only been able to deduct a portion of my costs, and would have been building equity at a very slow rate. i went all cash when the going was good, and thus have had a decent return on the money i didn't use for housing.

"maybe that is because all the "evidence" posted on these boards is posted by renters that do not own any properties and do not really understand what is actually happening"

OK, I'll bite - PLEASE PROVIDE ONE SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT, OVERALL, PRICE IN MANHATTAN ARE NOT FALLING AT AN ACCELERATING RATE - PLEASE, JUST ONE ITTY BITTY SHRED OF EVIDENCE. If you can't, you are full of it.

"justify to themselves that it is OK that they have wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent over the past years while trying to time the market"

RE is not like the stock market - there are no V bottoms - you confuse "timing the market" with "refusing to be financially irresponsible and load oneself with hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt in order to participate in a bubble" - big difference.

BTW, if someone bought in the 2005-2008 era, do you consider all the interest payments such a person has made to JPMorgan, Citibank, etc., over the past few years not "wasted" as well? What about the closing costs for the apt? What about maintenance and real estate taxes forked over? What about your downpayment for the property, which is about to get wiped out completely as prices revert to pre-2005 levels? Not "wasted" also? If so, WHY NOT????

"PLEASE PROVIDE ONE SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT, OVERALL, PRICE IN MANHATTAN ARE NOT FALLING AT AN ACCELERATING RATE - PLEASE, JUST ONE ITTY BITTY SHRED OF EVIDENCE" - look at the Case Schiller reports for end of year 2008 - non doorman LES properties. Sales Price is up 8% YOY. Also you need to understand relativity. If someon bought in 2000, 2001, or 1978 for that matter and have no plans to sell over the next few years because your properties are generating positive cash flow - do you really care what the perceived value decrease from the 2007-8 peak of the market is? No.

Your last questions/rants - if you are a long term serious real estate investor none of this stuff matters. If you are a market timer/flipper panicky short term investor it does matter to you. Who are you?

I find it hilarious that all these posters like happyrenter, aboutready, Steve, NYC10022 who claim to have seen what was coming and got out of the market - cannot believe that someone else invested in properties that werenot subject to the crazy speculation and crash.

so we are supposed to believe that they had vision but they believe no one else had any? Maybe it is because their claims of market timing are completely false and made up. Maybe they never owned and are jsut bitter renters trying to make themselves feel better about themselves.

They claim to have investments that bucked the trend but refuse to believe that any one else has done the same. Children......

I just signed a RE contract in prime brooklyn. I have a family to support so I don't have time to wait for the market to drop further. But I got a substantial discount from the original asking price and a 4.75% mortgage with no points. Long-term, I think we'll be happy with this decision.

"non doorman LES properties"

I said OVERALL THROUGHOUT MANHATTAN, numbskull, not 13 random properties on the LES. Also, nobody is disputing that the peak in prices occurred in 2008 - what matters is what's happening TODAY. TODAY, prices are plummeting - so, again, please post one shred of evidence THAT PRICES TODAY ARE NOT FALLING ACROSS MANHATTAN AT AN ACCELERATING RATE. Please, I'm eagerly awaiting your brilliant response.

"if you are a long term serious real estate investor none of this stuff matters"

So buying at massively overinflated bubble prices does not matter to if you are a "long term serious RE investor"? LMAO - good one!!!! Seriously, you just exposed yourself as a fool w/ that one.

BSexloser - you are a child with no argument. You are stating that because the macro data states an aggregated lowering than there exists no opportunity in any property? correct? Duh. I dont care if the aggregated data says that prices are falling in Manhattan as a whole. I understand - unlike you - that there are many properties that are not falling in value. Some are actually increasting in value.

When the stock market is lower are there any stocks that are up? is there anyone who makes money on the downturn. Of course there is. The same holds true for the RE market.

There are amazing buys out there right now. Buys of a lifetime. Not everyone should be buying now. But for a long term serious RE investor who is sitting on cash - now is the time to get amazing bargains and amazing financing.

Sorry if you cant wrap your head around basic principles.....

petr, when did I say anything about anyone else's abilities? Other than I feel sorry if someone is stuck in a contract for a depreciating asset?

BTW, I wouldn't be casting stones in that direction if I were you.

petrfitz,

"...there are many properties that are not falling in value. Some are actually increasting in value."

I'd like to see these properties that are increasting in value- please post links so we can share the information and perhaps profit along with you.

Otherwise, stop spewing unfounded wishes and taking up bytes on the web site's hard drive.

"I understand - unlike you - that there are many properties that are not falling in value. Some are actually increasting in value".

Oh right, I forgot, yours are increasing while almost everyone else's are decreasing. OK, thanks. PLEASE NAME A SINGLE PROPERTY THAT HAS INCREASED IN VALUE IN 2009 - ONE...SINGLE...PROPERTY. That would prove your point - please go ahead and name this mythical property.

"When the stock market is lower are there any stocks that are up?"

How many tech stocks went up from 2000 to 2003? Please name one. That was a bubble and Manhattan RE was a bubble. They all end the same way.

"But for a long term serious RE investor who is sitting on cash - now is the time to get amazing bargains and amazing financing"

There will only be "amazing bargains" when sellers accept reality and lower their asking prices to 2002 levels or lower. End of story.

BSexposer, I assume by now you've realized there's no arguing with pterozitz. He doesn't really get it. I actually agree with him that you can almost always find a deal if you look hard enough, but his take on the market and understanding of finance in general is pretty limited. petrfitz, I own and I disagree with much of what you say, not to mention your crass view of people who choose to rent. For many people, it's simply easier to rent right now. I don't think anyone would argue that longtime landlords are particularly suffering (though rents are indeed coming down, so I'd imagine it will affect you at some point), but the questions is really about buying now. Are you actively buying? And I don't mean your ongoing mythical search for Brooklyn brownstones?

" assume by now you've realized there's no arguing with pterozitz. He doesn't really get it."

Yes, it's pretty obvious by now. He refuses to accept reality.

"I actually agree with him that you can almost always find a deal if you look hard enough, but his take on the market and understanding of finance in general is pretty limited."

You can likely find something decent if you really try hard (needle in a haystack). I prefer to wait until bargains are plentiful, which they will inevitably be.

What RECESSION?

I don't see any ;-)

"petrfitz,

"...there are many properties that are not falling in value. Some are actually increasting in value."

I'd like to see these properties that are increasting in value- please post links so we can share the information and perhaps profit along with you."

LMAO - I won't hold my breath for that to happen!!!!!

you can't argue with a guy who makes things up. when did i ever claim that i had 'vision' and no one else did? i certainly did NOT predict the real estate bear market--predicting market movement is for speculators. i simply evaluated the fundamentals of my investment--that is, my apartment--and determined that it made no economic sense to continue to own.

trying to visualize the future is not investing, it's clairvoyance, and i am sadly not skilled in that area.

again, petrfitz, if your real estate investment went up because of rezoning that obviously has no relevance to anyone but you. i owned a small chunk of farm land in iowa and made a ton of money from a settlement with someone who was dumping toxic waste in the river upstream from the land. so investment proved enormously profitable. but i wouldn't go around telling everyone to buy land in iowa or denying that iowa real estate has plummeted with declining commodity prices. i would simply say "iowa real estate has collapsed, but a special case that i could neither have predicted nor planned for saved me from losing money."

likewise, you cannot claim that your "rent-roll is increasing" if it is an increase from below-market. put another way: if i decided to sell eggs for $1 a dozen when the market price is $5 a dozen, i can't then claim that the price of eggs has increased if the market price goes to $2 and i start charging $2. for whatever reason you had decided to charge below-market rents. now you have decided to raise those rents. but the reality is that the MARKET rent on the apartment has nothing to do with the whim of the landlord.

"I prefer to wait until bargains are plentiful, which they will inevitably be."

I think most people are in that bucket, but I wouldn't write off any attempts to shop around now.

As for properties that have appreciated in 2009, that's tough to do. Here's something that's appreciated considerably (>50%) over its 2005 price - #38B. Pretty crazy.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/151-east-58-street-new_york

the stock market is down therefore no stocks are up.

the aggregated real estate data is down therefore no individual property is up.

morons......

yes petrfitz, that is EXACTLY the argument people are making.

that being said, please find me one long-only equity investor who is up over the past year.

by the way bjw, the "petroleum market research association" is the buyer on that unit 38B. something tells me that's not an arms-length transaction.

petrfitz, the real moron is the one who last year, before the global collapse, argued that there was no better time in Manhattan's ENTIRE history of existence to buy real estate and make tons of money.

and then, well, we collapsed late last year.

oh, yeah, that's right- you were that person.

so here we are now, 2009 and post-initial-collapse, and you are saying.... what????

that's right. GTFOHWTBS already. moron.

"the stock market is down therefore no stocks are up. the aggregated real estate data is down therefore no individual property is up. morons......"

So, wait, "amazing bargains" are everywhere but, at the same time, lots of properties are increasing in value? And this less than 1 year from the absolute height of the RE bubble? LOL - keep trying, little guy, it's amusing.

BTW, still waiting for your links to all of the properties that have increased in value in 2009. I can't wait to check all of these magical places out!!! My checkbook is at the ready - just need the links!

accept it petrfitz- you were absolutely wrong to make that claim last year before the collapse and waste my time arguing with you.

and don't make me pull up that thread yet again.

"oh, yeah, that's right- you were that person"

Yes, let's go back 8 months and revisit all of Petrified's brilliant predictions and see how many have since come true. That would be amusing!

happyrenter,

Tough to know what's going on there exactly, but those kinds of transactions usually trade at below-market prices, not above-market, no? Either way, I am certainly not implying this is common. I strongly disagree with petrfitz here.

MMAfia,

No reason to stoop to his level with the name-calling. I think most people see him for what he is.

just having sum lunch entertainment bjw

=D

MMafia - you talk about my predictions last year. I was speaking about investments in the category and areas that I invest in. I predicted a 5-15% increase in sales price. You predicted a 40-50% decline in sales price.

The CAse Schiller data states that in 2008 there was a 8-10% increase in sales prices of all types of units in the LES non doorman market. Who was closer me or you?

Petrified - please give us your genius prediction for where the LES non doorman market will go in 2009 (I assume, per your brilliant insight, that it is ALREADY UP for the 1st Q of '09). So, what's it going to be? Up 10%? 20? Is up 40% out of the question (obviously, there's no chance it could go down, right?). Thx in advance.

LOL it's just sooo way beyond intellect now petrfitz...pure entertainment with you.

Thanks for the lunch laughs.

Give'em hell petriz. You're like Neo fighting all those Smiths.

happy/about: here's what i've been saying all along:
(1) Manhattan will not be effected by the credit crisis b/c there are minimal subprime loans.
(2) My investment studio prices have been flat for the past 6-8 months
(3) I only acknowledge an economic recovery never a real estate recovery because Manhattan real estate is only on hold until buyers see more economic clarity.Once perception is better(like now)then demand sets in and the cycle resumes.

MMafia - you talk about my predictions last year. I was speaking about investments in the category and areas that I invest in. I predicted a 5-15% increase in sales price. You predicted a 40-50% decline in sales price.

The CAse Schiller data states that in 2008 there was a 8-10% increase in sales prices of all types of units in the LES non doorman market. Who was closer me or you?

MMAfia - Answer the above or stfu

"affected" not "effected"

Manhattan RE prices went down in the early 90s not because of subprime (there were no subprime loans back then) but because of overall economic conditions. It is happening again right now. Manhattan market will revert to mean.

demand would imply employment, particularly for the market I am interested in (not studios).

i have a friend who refinanced in around 2004 to purchase an additional apartment and combine it a unit. the refi docs were known to her coop board, but unsolicited, Chase also offered her a huge HELOC. i don't know if she's ever spent the money, but it wouldn't have made her so prime if she had.

oh, and by the way, Thornburg, the mortgage company that filed for bankruptcy today, they specialized in prime Jumbos.

Wall Street bankers as an aggregate are losing their jobs therefore no one on Wall Street made more money this year than last.