Brokers Call Bottom (again) - so does that mean we're nowhere near?

nyc10022...thanks for the link!

how can anyone with a straight face try to call this market? still have trouble understanding what's going to replace all the jobs that have gone most away, most likely forever.

columbia...new jobs.

doing what?

talk about a bottom , for better or worse, for higher or lower, is a joke until 1) excess inventory plus shadow new inventory clears, ie, including selling out new developments and 2) inventory listings asking prices are in most cases within reasonable fudge-it distance of actual closing prices. Neither of those conditions seem to be anywhere near being met.

would like to see the apartments with the multiple bids. sorry, don't believe it.

I believe Noah at UD predicted a bottom this year. And he is usually correct.

newly created jobs as the money rolls in for what Wall Street does best.... mergers and acquisitions, asset management, IPOs etc

do you ever talk to people who don't live in NYC? nobody is buying anything. sales are down unthinkable amounts across the board. where is this money going to come from? we no longer can borrow it from china to buy and sell real estate to each other. what's left?

"nobody is buying anything."

So then how do you explain the nearly 500 contracts that were signed in the last 30 days?

you explain them as indicating an absorption rate of two years.

i'm talking about people across the country. auto sales are down 50%. retailers are reporting drops of between 5 and 20%. hours are being cut at distribution centers and factories across the country. nyc remains a rarefied, insular market. lets remember it was less than 6 months ago that everyone here was saying that real estate wouldn't be affected at all.

well I said that by 4Q of 2009 / 1Q 2010 I think the BULK of the adjustment will be complete, and then I see years of a muddled L shaped market.

500 contracts are a function of magic pricing... a292. Like I said, there is gonna be tremendous bounce at $1,000psf, then again at $750psf.. its' market psych... people couldn't believe when it went past this mark and some people feel "they lost out," and now are rationalizing their purchase..... I'll provide links later, but some Trump units and my saved list on UWS were getting pretty close to $1,000... and I think like 5 of them are "in contract."

FWIW, the market activity will only increase "sideline" sellers to start listing their units. I for one just talked a wife of a family with 2 young kids to sell their 2 bdrm apt and rent for 2 yrs in a 3bdrm.... her husband's logic of my 3 bdrm is becoming cheaper vs my peak purchase in 07' didn't hold water with me. If you think this is the case, shouldn't you capital preserve on your 2bdrm and nail the 3bdrm in 2 yrs?

Oh, I like round bottoms...

alpine, "think the bulk of adjustment will be complete" is not calling a bottom.

"you explain them as indicating an absorption rate of two years."

When you seasonally adjust the numbers, it comes in at slightly less than 2 years. If 500 contracts are signed a month, that does not mean that 6,000 contracts are signed a year since the number usually increases in the spring.

If brokers could with certainty predict future asset prices we wouldn't be brokers, we'd be on a yacht somewhere.

But I'm with digs, I forecast we'll bump along flattish for maybe four years. Reasons to buy now are if you need to move, or if you agree prices will stay flattish but you think interest rates will spike.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"When you seasonally adjust the numbers, it comes in at slightly less than 2 years. If 500 contracts are signed a month, that does not mean that 6,000 contracts are signed a year since the number usually increases in the spring."

Nope, you adjust it to MORE than 2 years. If you are pretending this is the down period, you are insane... its spring! The down periods are summer and the winter.

Its worse than that.

> I believe Noah at UD predicted a bottom this year. And he is usually correct.

Stock market bottom, I believe. Which would put RE bottom several years from now.

"columbia...new jobs."

Yes, teachers, irish carpenters, and garbagemen will buy your $2 million dollar condo!

We've moved from delusion into outright stupidity...