Just throwing this out, if any of you bright and well-read posters care to give your 2 cents I would be most honored. Following the disaster of 9/11, we read--for years--dire predictions of nuclear terrorism, biological warfare, anthrax, dirty bombs, smallpox attacks, etc etc etc. There was the "yellow" alert, the "orange" alert, not quite the "red" alert... there was the shoe bomber, and then... [more]
Just throwing this out, if any of you bright and well-read posters care to give your 2 cents I would be most honored.
Following the disaster of 9/11, we read--for years--dire predictions of nuclear terrorism, biological warfare, anthrax, dirty bombs, smallpox attacks, etc etc etc. There was the "yellow" alert, the "orange" alert, not quite the "red" alert... there was the shoe bomber, and then those pesky plotters who ultimately forced the TSA to examine 2 ounces or more of baby's breast milk.
Ultimately, WHO blew up Wall Street?
Uh, it was.... Wall Street.
So now, I am just pondering here, as I read through this interesting talk section, all the intriguing links, all the many frightening threads with predictions of pending economic doom.... is there any way that the prognostications of financial collapse are similarly knee-jerk reactions to the recent financial disasters? Is it possible that the worst is behind us, that some of these particularly woeful "seers" are allowing their imaginations to run wild with negativity?
Indeed for the sake of our country, I hope this is the case. But your thoughts are very much appreciated....
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Response by crescent22
about 17 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008
It's quite possible, I would say >60% chance, that the WORST is behind because that would involve the government allowing another major bank to file Ch. 11 and even the short-term money markets and investment grade bond markets completely freezing.
However, better than WORST is still pretty bad- no full scale panic but a punishing poor macroeconomic situation in general - rising unemployment, stagflation, more legacy loan defaults - liquidity is maintained for the safest stuff unlike Q4 2008, but creditworthiness and monetary velocity remain quite bad. This will be the story of 2H 2009, 1H 2010.
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Response by alpine292
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
I think the worst is indeed behind us. How can it possibly get worse than it is now? Will the DOW fall to 1? Will my property value be -$300,000? Will there be a civil war?
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
let me start by reciting my mantra---i haven't a clue...
nevertheless, i continue to be concerned by two things: the seemingly endless unemployment news and more importantly the deflationary news....particularly as it relates to workers taking pay cuts. this has never happened in my adult life and, as such, it makes me nervous. workers are accepting pay cuts because they have to...what stops more and more pay cuts always explained by "hey, we don't want anyone to lose their jobs." just like fuel surcharges have a nasty way of not going away when the price of fuel drops, taking workers comp down doesn't get resolved at raise time.
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Response by alpine292
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
"this has never happened in my adult life"
Um, were you not around in the 70s? How old are you?
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
gee...in the 70's i was getting huge raises...not pay cuts.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
alpine, what a cogent retort. the 70s were so lovely. would love to discuss the merits further, but must run.
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Response by alpine292
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
what was lovely? The sky high murder rate? The double digit unemployment?
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
sarcasm, anger's ugly cousin.
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
not sure his point. inflation was raging. 15% raises were equivalent to today's 1.5%. who said they were lovely...kinda sucked...although i was young which was nice.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9897
Member since: Mar 2009
We are no where near the worst of it yet. Count how many chickens went out and how many have come home to roost. lots of unaccounted for chickens still.
It's quite possible, I would say >60% chance, that the WORST is behind because that would involve the government allowing another major bank to file Ch. 11 and even the short-term money markets and investment grade bond markets completely freezing.
However, better than WORST is still pretty bad- no full scale panic but a punishing poor macroeconomic situation in general - rising unemployment, stagflation, more legacy loan defaults - liquidity is maintained for the safest stuff unlike Q4 2008, but creditworthiness and monetary velocity remain quite bad. This will be the story of 2H 2009, 1H 2010.
I think the worst is indeed behind us. How can it possibly get worse than it is now? Will the DOW fall to 1? Will my property value be -$300,000? Will there be a civil war?
let me start by reciting my mantra---i haven't a clue...
nevertheless, i continue to be concerned by two things: the seemingly endless unemployment news and more importantly the deflationary news....particularly as it relates to workers taking pay cuts. this has never happened in my adult life and, as such, it makes me nervous. workers are accepting pay cuts because they have to...what stops more and more pay cuts always explained by "hey, we don't want anyone to lose their jobs." just like fuel surcharges have a nasty way of not going away when the price of fuel drops, taking workers comp down doesn't get resolved at raise time.
"this has never happened in my adult life"
Um, were you not around in the 70s? How old are you?
gee...in the 70's i was getting huge raises...not pay cuts.
alpine, what a cogent retort. the 70s were so lovely. would love to discuss the merits further, but must run.
what was lovely? The sky high murder rate? The double digit unemployment?
sarcasm, anger's ugly cousin.
not sure his point. inflation was raging. 15% raises were equivalent to today's 1.5%. who said they were lovely...kinda sucked...although i was young which was nice.
We are no where near the worst of it yet. Count how many chickens went out and how many have come home to roost. lots of unaccounted for chickens still.