about, haven't you noticed yet that your doom and gloom is getting pretty old. Most economists and the Fed are saying the worst is behind us and we are ready for more prosperous times. You lost..:)
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
more prosperous for whom? and, while you're at it, more prosperous than what?
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Response by steveF
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
(1)everyone except you and (2)more prosperous/higher standard of living than ever before(like every post-recession.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
steveF, i don't consider this a game. we're a high-income family that comes from middle-class roots. i'll doom and gloom as long as money is being diverted from all but the richest to the richest, without benefitting anyone but the richest.
but good on you for feeling sunny. the weather's great, and at least for now, the market's with you. and that's what really matters, isn't it?
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
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one economist's current take on the similarities between now and the depression:
how about all those auto workers? how about all of the journalists particularly the guy who won the pulitzer after he was laid off? how about all of the commercial landlords with ever increasing vacancies? hey, how about all the people who used to work at bear, and used to work at lehman and used to work at merrill? hey how about everyone who has a 401K---lets see down 45%, up 30% from that low---still way down?
it may be getting better for banks and shareholders. it's not getting better for the consumer, or the worker.
most things aren't getting better, they're getting worse more slowly. i put up some great charts from zero hedge of economic conditions behing the GDP numbers. take a look at them and THINK FOR YOURSELF. quit watching CNBC, even Bloomberg's reporting tends to turn tone on a dime. as Janet Yellen said, we will exit the recession because at some point growth must become positive. but, at that point, positive relative to what? and at what rate? we may still be operating at far less capacity than the last eight years, but everybody will be happy because the number is going up. yes, it's better if the number is going up than if it is going down, but until i see some impetus for that number to head toward capacity, we're still screwed.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
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and steveF, just wait until the credit card companies pull credit lines. you're going to see consumer confidence plummet. this market is a giant pump and dump. right now it's still pumping. how do you think those 401K people are going to feel if and when the dump occurs?
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
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steve, from bloomberg's econoday market indicators, mortgage applications.
Highlights
Mortgage rates are falling but mortgage applications for home purchases are still depressed. MBA's purchase index fell 0.6 percent in the April 24 week to 251.6. Refinancing applications, at an index of 5,108.2, were down 22 percent in the week but remain very active, making up three quarters of all mortgage applications. Thanks to government buying of Treasuries and agency debt, mortgage rates are at rock bottom with 30-year fixed loans averaging 4.62 percent for an 11 basis point drop in the week. Housing data have been showing some life but not MBA's report. Watch for comments on the housing market in today's FOMC statement, comments that would be certain to shape what is right now an uncertain outlook for the sector.
The re-fi boom is dying down. Many of the positives you see are temporary due to government intervention. Be happy if you must, but don't tell me I have no basis for my negativity.
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
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how long were we feeling the effects of the recession before it was actually deemed to be one? this obsession with numbers can sometimes negate common sense. unfortunately, i don't think "things are getting better;" i think we are getting used to what was (less than a year ago) inconceivable. suddenly, chrysler's so called surgical bankruptcy isn't "so bad." tell that to the stock and bond holders.
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Response by nyc10022
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"about, haven't you noticed yet that your doom and gloom is getting pretty old."
Nothing is more old than your "NOW is the time to buy", Steve.
You said it a YEAR AGO.
Only when you stop saying it could it possibly be true....
Also, your complete ignorance of the fact that Manhattan is 2 years behind the rest of the country is very old...
As is your completely lack of understanding that recovery from a bubble doesn't mean a reversion to bubble prices.
But, hey, you proved to everyone that you had no idea what you were talking about a year ago, so this shouldn't be a surprise.
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Response by nyc10022
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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... As is your ignorance of the fact that the "best month" still leaves us 40% below peak...
thx for link js...
better than expected profits (due to job slashing):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at35Pc9vufo8&refer=home
Unemployment at 10% or higher now in 109 cities:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/29/news/economy/metropolitan_area_unemployment/?postversion=2009042912
about, haven't you noticed yet that your doom and gloom is getting pretty old. Most economists and the Fed are saying the worst is behind us and we are ready for more prosperous times. You lost..:)
more prosperous for whom? and, while you're at it, more prosperous than what?
(1)everyone except you and (2)more prosperous/higher standard of living than ever before(like every post-recession.
steveF, i don't consider this a game. we're a high-income family that comes from middle-class roots. i'll doom and gloom as long as money is being diverted from all but the richest to the richest, without benefitting anyone but the richest.
but good on you for feeling sunny. the weather's great, and at least for now, the market's with you. and that's what really matters, isn't it?
one economist's current take on the similarities between now and the depression:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3514
matters not only to me but most of the world....
another prominent economist has downgraded his views recently:
http://economistsview.typepad.com/
how about all those auto workers? how about all of the journalists particularly the guy who won the pulitzer after he was laid off? how about all of the commercial landlords with ever increasing vacancies? hey, how about all the people who used to work at bear, and used to work at lehman and used to work at merrill? hey how about everyone who has a 401K---lets see down 45%, up 30% from that low---still way down?
yes but it's GETTING better.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aS6A6zCSJdA0&refer=us
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30497019
it may be getting better for banks and shareholders. it's not getting better for the consumer, or the worker.
most things aren't getting better, they're getting worse more slowly. i put up some great charts from zero hedge of economic conditions behing the GDP numbers. take a look at them and THINK FOR YOURSELF. quit watching CNBC, even Bloomberg's reporting tends to turn tone on a dime. as Janet Yellen said, we will exit the recession because at some point growth must become positive. but, at that point, positive relative to what? and at what rate? we may still be operating at far less capacity than the last eight years, but everybody will be happy because the number is going up. yes, it's better if the number is going up than if it is going down, but until i see some impetus for that number to head toward capacity, we're still screwed.
and steveF, just wait until the credit card companies pull credit lines. you're going to see consumer confidence plummet. this market is a giant pump and dump. right now it's still pumping. how do you think those 401K people are going to feel if and when the dump occurs?
steve, from bloomberg's econoday market indicators, mortgage applications.
Highlights
Mortgage rates are falling but mortgage applications for home purchases are still depressed. MBA's purchase index fell 0.6 percent in the April 24 week to 251.6. Refinancing applications, at an index of 5,108.2, were down 22 percent in the week but remain very active, making up three quarters of all mortgage applications. Thanks to government buying of Treasuries and agency debt, mortgage rates are at rock bottom with 30-year fixed loans averaging 4.62 percent for an 11 basis point drop in the week. Housing data have been showing some life but not MBA's report. Watch for comments on the housing market in today's FOMC statement, comments that would be certain to shape what is right now an uncertain outlook for the sector.
The re-fi boom is dying down. Many of the positives you see are temporary due to government intervention. Be happy if you must, but don't tell me I have no basis for my negativity.
how long were we feeling the effects of the recession before it was actually deemed to be one? this obsession with numbers can sometimes negate common sense. unfortunately, i don't think "things are getting better;" i think we are getting used to what was (less than a year ago) inconceivable. suddenly, chrysler's so called surgical bankruptcy isn't "so bad." tell that to the stock and bond holders.
"about, haven't you noticed yet that your doom and gloom is getting pretty old."
Nothing is more old than your "NOW is the time to buy", Steve.
You said it a YEAR AGO.
Only when you stop saying it could it possibly be true....
Also, your complete ignorance of the fact that Manhattan is 2 years behind the rest of the country is very old...
As is your completely lack of understanding that recovery from a bubble doesn't mean a reversion to bubble prices.
But, hey, you proved to everyone that you had no idea what you were talking about a year ago, so this shouldn't be a surprise.
... As is your ignorance of the fact that the "best month" still leaves us 40% below peak...