What will $/sq bottom out at for raw loft space in Union Sq/Flatiron?

wide enough to put in real bedrooms? 1400 sf or 2000 sf? adequate plumbing options?

What about windows? how many exposures?

2k Square feet. Wes, wide enough for real bedrooms and/or windows on 3 sides (one or the other so that 3brs in 2k sq feet is possible).

Sorry, meant Yes (not Wes aka west side).

The last 2 deals I saw in that area (off fifth, 20s) were 2000sqft full-floor lofts, going for 800k apiece. Easily 2 bedrooms & one media room/den. That was late 2000-early 2002.

800k? $400 psf??? even just after 9/11 that is cheap. My question isn't so much what the cheapest will be, but what prices will bottom out at for an "average deal"...

My guess would be $700-$750 a sq foot. Sq footage to exclude stairs and elevator area.

This is a very rough guesstimate, but I think at the bottom you'll see 1998 or so prices again. As such, a finished but not spectacular coop in a "normal" not high class building would run around $450-500 psf. Unfinished spaces for a while traded at a discount to that. Then at a premium. There has been very little raw space available as developers decided to do the work generally themselves. Where the prices wind up will obviously depend on how many owners of small buildings suitable for loft conversions need to sell. If they need to sell, right now there is almost no impetus for commercial use, so residential would be the (slightly less noxious) answer.

Is $400 psf, or a 2000ish price, really so hard to imagine?

I don't recall the exact year - the buildings were 9W20 (fall 2000) and 141W24 (spring of either '01 or '02). Why am I even discussing yesterday's prices? The economy was in better shape then (though maybe built on false foundations) and the apts weren't exactly snapped up in 5 minutes. 141W24 was a raw space, all cash deal and my partner exercised his veto power (not a downtown guy) based on location.

good luck finding any truly "raw" space anywhere.

30yrs, now yes. but you really think that there isn't any light commecial space going forward in chelsea and areas further downtown? I look around at many of the blocks and see huge opportunity.

I don't remember exactly when it was, but some time in the 80's the AG's office or Building's Dept (I don't remember which one) stopped allowing conversions (coop or condo) to "residential" leaving them as raw space. before that, there were a number of players who were doing just that. I remember a friend who bought at 366 Broadway where there were still desks and cubicles in his unit, all they had done was put up the demising walls between units. that was done by Richard S. Berry and F. Anthony Zunino, who my memory tells me were the biggest players in that niche back then, but then they did The Petersfield condo at 115 Fourth Ave and i don't think they ever went back to do any more raw space conversions after that.And enough time has gone by that fewer and fewer of those units haven't had any work done by anyone. look at 9 West 20th and 141 West 24th that nyc10023 talked about: has there been any recent sale of a 'raw' spcae in either of those 2 buildings? Do any exist?

Now, it also depends on what you mean by "raw space". Half the people who ever called me looking for "raw space" meant all new electric, a new kitchen with a granite counter and a SubZero fridge, 2 new baths, but the rest open space... you know "raw" and for putting up $10,000 wroth of sheetrock they wanted to save $600,000 because it was "raw space".

but also, as you said, "developers decided to do the work generally themselves". why sell raw space at $x when it needs $y work and you can sell it finished at great than $x plus $y? I guess it's even funny to think of what a "developer" of raw space lofts is? What are they "developing"? lol

Also, i don't think you'll get any bank to finance a truly raw space.

financing, not today. but the OP was asking for the bottom. i don't think the bottom is today. i'd love to do raw space myself, and i'd do all cash.

everybody and his brother became a "developer". once upon a time there was raw space available. and then there really wasn't. next year, who knows.

aboutready: I may not have made the point strongly enough: I don't think you can do a raw space conversion anymore, so where are the new raw space units going to come from?

30yrs, got it. had a dense moment.