A place in our building just sold

Just wondering who revealed the contract price?

Is it the one that is all white, compulsively white? All I want to know was what kind of person lived there.

Ha! I think I know which one you're talking about familyguy, and no it isn't the one that's mental institution white.

Gaon, I am friends with the seller and emailed him to ask when I got the letter from the broker yesterday. I knew about the low-ball offers b/c we serve on the board together and I asked at the last board meeting. As for the peak price comparison, same line sold twice b/w 2007-08 so worked from that.

Again, my only purpose for the post is to contribute up to date info to this board.

I think some buyers have been spooked by this equity rally. some people are getting afraid RE is gonna start ripping again. I dont think so..if Im wrong then I gotta pay up, but I dont think im gonna be wrong.

It's a dead cat bounce.

thats right..even a dead cat bounces. the dollar is starting to get beat up now. could be the beginning of something very ugly

OTNYC, watch how your piece of info gets twisted to prove the opposite of what it is.

OTNYC, that is very interesting info. Do you have any sense of whether there was anything special about the apartment to explain why it held value so much better than many others in the neighborhood?

I saw the apt and thought it showed pretty well. I am tempted to post the link to the unit but don't want to give away too much info on myself (at least not until I have had a few glasses of wine at W & R). Maybe after it closes. I will give my own experience as an example. I paid $870 for a 2-bed in the same building in 2007, reasonable mtnce. I put in about 30K in renovations. I went about 40% down (sold a previous property at peak) and my monthly cost before tax benefit is $3750 (includes mtnce.). The exact same line in my building rents for $4900. So, I guess it's a desirable product in a desirable neighborhood and rates are low.

I can't and won't dispute the "dead-cat bounce" theory. That said, RE tends to be a much less liquid market than equities, so not sure how a dead-cat bounce would really happen. In the resale segment, things didn't increase as crazily as some on this board make out. Yes, the last decade saw some pretty healthy appreciation, but it was on the tail end of a decade of basically no movement.

Anyway, doesn't really matter what I think or say. The anecdotes about about my unit and my neighbor's unit are just 2 out of many stories. I know there are other anecdotes about people that bought at the peak and had to sell at a loss, and I genuinely feel bad for them. I have no clue what direction the market is headed but I personally feel that it won't be as miserable as some on this board make out. Even on this board, the attitude has become decidedly less negative over the past few weeks - perhaps it's the nice weather?

OTNYC - even I have gone a bit over to the dark (light) side. I still wouldn't buy myself, but I see properties where I think at the end of the day the potential for loss has been minimized to some extent. This is a process. Bears frequently don't understand that sales are good, they reset the price levels, give some clarity, and provide a point for going forward. There will always be some sellers who get lucky, some buyers who don't think prices have gone down that much and will bid accordingly.

There are still over 11,200 properties for sale, not counting the massive overhang of condos, another beast altogether. The inventory level suprises me, actually, I would have expected declines by now, which leads me to think (along with income/employment issues, lending standards, uncertainty) that we still have quite a ways to go. But, if you find a well-priced place and you really want your own home, you'll not receive any scorn from me, even though I might think rents are going to head deeply south.

AR - very reasonable post, and I mostly agree with you. Most importantly, sales will be made at all price points on the way down and back up. Certain segments in the market are more or less frozen but there is still activity. I don't see the 11,000 inventory as a huge issue because there are still a limited number of great properties in great neighborhoods at good price points.

The data geek in me would be very interested in analyzing the inventory to see where inventory increases are happening, and it would be grand to be able to compare that to last year, etc.

My only comment is that I have seen a fairly large increase in the family-type apartment listings, particularly on the uppers, and have seen quite a bit more in the nicer buildings.

A unit in a desirable neighborhood that is priced correctly will sell, no matter what's happening in the market.

Yes, it will but the question is what is priced correctly. This one apparently sold for 5% below it's peak. Why did it hold it's value?

no data but a feeling....

i think the gap between prime properties and properties with issues got much closer during the boom particularly because (again my guess) more of the properties selling had issues, ie. if someone had a great place and saw values going up all over, why sell at that time?

so now that gap is widening back to where it always was. how many places have we all seen over the years where we walked away thinking, who in their right mind would buy that place at any price? well, (again only an opinion) those are the units that are piling up and when someone goes to sell a prime apartment, it sticks out even more and tends to sell relatively quickly and relatively close to its peak (which by the way may not actually exist because so few of them actually changed hands).

There is certainly much more available in the 3br+ market on the UWS than in the last 10 years. And many of the properties are in better condition than the stuff that was available 10 years ago. As always, price is the issue - how many 2m+ apts can be sold in this market?

but, in following up on my theory, how many of them have flaws that would have been overlooked in the past but not now? the third bedroom that's 7 feet wide overlooking a brick wall, the undersized dining room, etc.

did a little exercise. last year three bedroom and larger apartments were terribly hard to come by. i just looked at this from an inventory perspective, not quality, so many of you will have much in the way of criticism there. there's only so much data crunching/analysis a person can do.

here goes. Over the past 30 days 18 apartments with at least three bedrooms went into contract on the UWS (just UWS search, not Lincoln Center or Manhattanville). For the same market there are 243 3+ bedrooms actively available. Additionally, this last thirty day period has been one of the most active in recent history, and probably will be atypical going into the summer months (although who knows, really). At that rate there are 16 months worth of UWS 3+ bedrooms available. I wasn't running the numbers last spring or fall, but i'm fairly certain that's a large increase.

for the quality issue, if you haven't already done so, take a look at west81st's, hr's, 10023's, lp's and p09's (among others) musings on the price chopper and mmwc threads.

CC: the issue is (and I think you agree) that "quality" apts are thicker on the ground now than any time in the last 10 years and even those are not flying off the market.

not sure that we are defining quality in the same way....I'm talking about no flaws---not necessarily interior finishes. but right sized rooms....unobstructed views, absolute top tier buildings and top locations.

and yes...nothing is flying anywhere.

Good discussion - appreciate the numbers crunching on 3 beds on the UWS, AR. Speaking to my broker friends, what I am hearing is that the $3M+ market is dead, and the $1M - $3M market is mostly frozen. Sub-$1M, which is mostly first time buyers, has picked up dramatically in the past month and that is where this unit fell. BTW, re-ran the numbers and the price is actually 6.5% below peak (took average of 2 comps, one from 2007 other from early 2008) - still, not too shabby all things considered. Also, it had been on the market since Jan, not Feb. I think the "sick" deals will be in the 3-bed category and this is where we will see the ~25% drops.

Recipe for a sick deal = bad condition + estate + difficult board + 3m+ ask - you're seeing this to a greater extent on UES because the boards are way stricter there so the market for 2m+ is very limited.

OTNYC -- just wanted to add about the rental in your building. I'm also on the UWS, but a little on the southern end, so desirable for a walk to midtown, less desirable for school district. Our 2bd/2ba is 3700/mo, full service building, and we are renegotiating our rent down to @3200 (still in the works).

I'm seeing prices I like on sales, but with the ability to lower our rent, the monthly outlay is still cheaper to rent (I'm not factoring in the tax benefit, but also not factoring in forking over the downpayment and the risk on either side).

Just an FYI. Thanks for your post.

Wow, 2 bed/2 bath for $3200??? What's the catch? That's the maintenance on some 2 beds these days (no joke). Are you in one of those really ugly Lincoln Square buildings west of 10th in the high 60's? If so, those have an economy of their own.

LP1 - please give us a hint as to where you are because we are in the market right now for a new rental and $3200 for 2 bd/ 2 ba would be LOVELY!

My guess is far wilds of Lincoln Square area (no offense, LP1).