bottom is in! panic buying begins now

check out www.urbandigs.com for cold splash of reality

You are an eternal optimist. Go enjoy your birthday.

Ok, I call you a little buzzed. Check the stock market today.

One month left to buy? There will be no selling after that? Wow, I'd better hurry up.

Tiff-
How long have you lived in Manhattan? I'm assuming about 3 weeks because you don't seem to know that everyone leaves the city for the summer starting this weekend.
I kind of feel bad for the sellers out there that still have properties on the market, it's going to be a lonely 3 months of waiting for people to come back to the city and start looking again.

Cut the bullshit tiffany , would you?
Inventory speaks for itself: 11000 listing AND over 22000 shadow inventory:
"...Inventory in Manhattan has reached 10,908, its highest level in a decade, according to Mr. Miller. To make matters worse, in the five boroughs there are an additional 22,000 units of shadow inventory—apartments that are not being actively marketed to buyers...."
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090517/FREE/305179981

Are the foreigners back?

You would expect an increase of traffic and bids the weekend before the Memorial Day weekend. Brokers even had multiple open houses for the same property during the week. It's going to be very quiet over the summer as usual. And if the stock market retests the bottom after June there will rather be panic selling.

I am a sideline foreigner. And I am not back until they deduct a big part of the 300% 5 year price hike in the nabe I'm looking into.

More good news! Or bad news. I guess really bad news.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2125616520090521?rpc=44&sp=true

Yes, tiff, you are drunk at noon on a Thursday.

The only bottom I'm seeing these days belongs to the obese man across the street who insists on walking around starkers with the lights on and the blinds up. Other than that, no bottoms in sight.

Tiffany, yes, the bears are quick to pounce when they hear something they don't like. Thanks for the input. I think you are right on! have a great weekend!

Hi Tiffany... there seems to be a big difference between these posts and reality. I happen to agree with you about the current level of action, maybe not so much the Wall street bonus run in Jan, though. I didn't think I would see this kind of sales volume but its real and has been going on for a while on <2M properties. The market is outright hot on <1M properties.

I don't know why but my comments got truncated. The pick-up in sales volume has gradually increased over the last couple of months particularly below 2M. It has been outright hot below 1M. Urban Digs tracks inventory and it reflects what we are saying. I'm not so sure summer will be as slow as people predict.

Oh Tiff.........................Tiff, Tiff, Tiff...............
Let me begin by saying Happy Birthday and, on your B-Day...all is right with the world. Enjoy the flowers and sunshine, many happy returns. What ever you do....DON'T LOOK BACK! I wonder if the Folks at Sodom and Gomorrah had any inkling of what was about to befall them. On your birthday I want all to see you, want to lick you but, not as a pillar of salt.

i suggest you not stop drinking otherwise ur in for a rude awakening. the bottom is just falling out

by the way...bonus season for wall st. this year is going to be almost as bad as last year. and believe me i wish that wasnt true, because thats my money im talkin about

I am seeing more buyers out there now. In Jan and Feb, everyone was nervous. Now, that the prices did go down, a well priced property will go. Just don't jump on any listing from Corcoran or Elliman in the first month, they still think that there are plenty of suckers out there. A month or so later, reality check.......

I'm new here but it looks like everyone wants to see the market go down. I guess there are lots of reasons to believe it will but we are having a run at the moment. You can argue that it can't be sustained, but you can't argue with the facts.

Broker's facts? They can't be trusted.

UWSmynabe, I guess you're talking about the stock market (which is not on a tear anymore, either)

Tiffany is drunk on a Thurs. morning because she's an unemployed broker.

Sorry Trompiloco, I was referring to the real estate market in my last post. Please don't beat me up ; )

I was hoping for more balanced discussion on here.

Panic buying?

WTF does that even mean?

UWS, I don't think anyone would describe what's happening as a 'run'. I think what we're seeing is sellers finally beginning to get their heads out of their asses and price properties for today's market rather than vainly attempting to maintain the peak. There will always be buyers in NYC. When properties are correctly priced they will sell in any market.

only time will tell..lets revisit this thread in a month

I agree with you Squid. People talk about a shadow inventory of condos and there is but there is also a subset of the current inventory that is more realistic and sellable than the other part. This sellable inventory, or inventory of realistic sellers is maybe 30% 0r 40% of the overall inventory. There are properties out there right now where the sellers are just going the the motions, call it testing the market or whatever but there properties are in bad condition and their prices are too high. They will never sell. So out of the sellable inventory we have really good action and support for current prices.

>>So out of the sellable inventory we have really good action and support for current prices.<<

Right. It's called a meeting of the minds. It's an adjustment to the current market. As the NYC market falls further (which it likely will as jobs are lost and severance pay dries up, forcing folks to relocate) it will continue to adjust, with sellers bringing down their expectations and buyers setting the bar at new lows.

Seriously, if you are new here, check out the post on urbandigs today. Nobody here is arguing that activity has not picked up compared with January/February. It always does. But another fact is that inventory has continued to go up during this "hot" period. That is why most people feel that it is the normal seasonal rise in activity that will be followed by the normal seasonal lull.

It's the end of the world as we know it....It's the end of the world as we know it....It's the end of the world as we know it..and I feel fine

True but everyone is saying on here the bottom is falling out of the real estate market so if we are seeing normal activity returning that is in line with historical data wouldn't that suggest the market is normalizing? And doesn't inventory always increase this time of year anyway?

It's spring time. School is almost over. This time of the year naturally sees a pick up in traffic. Maybe not the traffic we saw a couple of years ago, but it is not surprising that more people were out and about. This is by all means not an indication that a frenzy is about to occur. Let's not get too excited. Mimosas - tasty.

Bonus on Wall Street? What's that...oh yeah, something we used to get when making money was important to the industry. Please, if you're not in the biz don't talk about bonuses on WS. And we know you're not in the biz, b/c your POV is unsupported by daily reality.

Oh and PS, none of my connections in finance see nyc real estate going up for a long time. Best case scenario is flat. Prevailing sentiment is a drop below equilibrium.

Sorry, enjoy your birthday. It's only money.

Observation #1: (A) Almost 50% of Americans think their own financial situation is strong, (B) 92% of Americans think the economy is in horrid shape. The odds of a SE poster being in both group A and group B is 99% .

Observation #2: Drunk people don't lie. But use your own judgement when they try to predict the future.

Buy now or be priced out forever!

Where's spunky?

Spunky is having a mimosa with Tiff, his favourite broker.

Oh no!!! He is standing right behind you!!!!

Run Steve!!!!

"Priced out forever" seems overly optimistic -or maybe pessimistic? "Flat" support by strong activity is a more appropriate term right now I think.

support = supported

I wish spunky was having a mimosa with me... I hate drinking alone... especially on my birthday

Happy B-day & don't get too sloshed, there's more drinkin tonight.

After a lot of day-drinking, tiffany will be doing other things tonight dwell.

the title is incorrect.... it should be "panic drinking"... H B-day.... for your b-day...

Yo... dwell/waverly/mimi/stevie... :)

thanks dwell & w69st, looks like it's gonna be nights of wine and roses for me..

tiffany... ahhhhhh... my name is w67st... .you may want to let your liver take a rest.... :)

Liver, shmiver. Does that mean you're joining us tonight, Tiffany?

spunky! spunky!

>>It's the end of the world as we know it....It's the end of the world as we know it....It's the end of the world as we know it..and I feel fine<<

Uh oh.
This means no fear. Cavalier.
Renegade and steer clear.
A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies!
Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives
and I decline...

Yo, w67, you ain't comin' tonite? Too bad, hopin' you'd do a wheelie in your Turbo on Columbus.

Stevie, come in disguise, like wear a big rainbow afro wig?

ROTFL.

Wow, the broker shills still haven't given up.

Panic?

Man, just too funny.