Start looking for that special place now

Congratulations, spinnaker! Can't wait to find out more details once you close.

I too am very much on the fence, but I lean bearish based on the data I see. Nonetheless I keep looking and would spring for the right property at the right price!

congrats

spinnaker, can't wait to hear what you got!

congrats. i'm with you neither bull nor bear but just looking for something right for my needs. i think i found it but just can't come to a meeting of the minds with the developer/sponsor. so i'll wait and i'm hopeful that in a month or two it will come into my price range-which is not so low as to make me a bear nor a vulture waiting to prey on innocent victim of the economy. just waiting for the sponsor to offer me a reasonable discount or for my funds to increase to meet him.
Again good luck

i get confused with all this bear/bull talk sometimes. i assume most buyers are like us. a bear before they make a purchase and then a bull after. no? i mean isn't it impossible to be clearly on one side or the other without involving your own agenda just a little. regardless, isn't the world a whole lot more gray than just these two sides.

My agenda is this: I would like to have a safe and stable place to live without enduring enormous price hikes and having to pack up all of my belongings to move every couple of years. I'd like to achieve this without going so far into debt that I am not ruined in the process. If that makes me a bear, so be it.

jason you hit the nail on the head. We ALL are BEARS when we are BUYERS, and we ALL are BULLS when we are on the SELLING end. perfect analagy. it's too bad that people forget which side they were once on...

20% below an insider comp in 2004! That is really very telling. So basically early 2003 prices. Can't wait to hear the deets. Good job!

for me maybe coming to these boards was a mistake. i didn't come here looking for peoples opinion, predictions, or evaluation of me. Nor do i think their crystal ball is better than mine, but i was hoping to get personal experiences as far as actual closing prices, prices per SF, and a sense of if the prices will still drop. Perhaps giving me some hope that my expectations are not unachievable. also, since i am new to this mkt, wanted to understand why upwards of $1200 PSF is an avg price or WAS that the avg price from days gone by and now the mkt is shifting. I get NYC is one of the greatest cities in the world, that's why i'm hoping to enjoy a piece of it even if it means paying more psf (i think most places can't even fathom $1200SF it's more like $150-$200 for a really huge place) i am not looking lowball or steal, and probably noone here can tell me when to buy and when to wait, but perhaps i can be the judge of that myself by visiting these boards and see what other people (brokers, analysts, shoppers, sellers) are seeing so that i may make my own decision on when the time is right

movinup1, what you're asking for isn't unreasonable. for serious market analysis, with concrete apartment examples, go to the if you can demonstrate market movement with comps threads, or the price chopper thread. if you search for movement or chopper it will come up. those threads haven't been as active of late because there is a bit of a sense of been there seen that. for awhile new listings, price cuts and closings were a bit thin also, so it slowed down reporting momentum. but it's a helpful crew on those threads, and if you're interested in an area or type of apartment that's not covered (they sometimes lean high end), give out a shout, or start your own mmwc's thread, and help will be offerred.

now, evnyc, she's nervy. asking for the moon and the stars she is.

Thanks all, I promise details once we make it past the board.

Deep down I think we are all alike!!

Congratulations, spinnaker1!

One question, if it won't reveal too much: by "a 2004 insider comp", do you mean a buyer who previously inhabited the apartment as a rental tenant and received a concessionary price as an incentive to purchase, or a buyer with some other "inside" connection to the building? No problem if you don't want to answer at this delicate stage. I just have a special interest in past "insider" deals.

"i get confused with all this bear/bull talk sometimes. i assume most buyers are like us. a bear before they make a purchase and then a bull after. no? i mean isn't it impossible to be clearly on one side or the other without involving your own agenda just a little."

Not really. Permanent folks on both ends, sure. Folks who say "always buy RE, best investment" "manhattan only goes up", complete idiots. So is anyone saying "never buy" (which, if you notice, is less than the folks who said always buy.

But, a large chunk of logical people will buy when the numbers say buy, and rent when the numbers say rent. They will follow the numbers. Their agenda won't lead their analysis, their analysis will lead their agenda...

congrats spinnaker1 - i am still looking for my unique space and it's nice to hear someone has found theirs at such a nice comp! looking forwards to hearing the details.

movinup,

Don't mind some of the bitter people on SE. They are just bitter that they have been priced out or can't afford their dream shoe box. Don't let them scare you away. Otherwise the housing terrorists win.

> They are just bitter that they have been priced out or can't afford their dream shoe box

Alpine, I assume you are talking about yourself... you admitted such several times.

The bears are anything but bitter these days... they were right! And enjoying bigger and bigger sales each week!

thanks, not scared, interested is more like it....

And, interesting enough, bears are the ones who said it was a good move.
Hell, I said to do it!

Alpine is the bitter one, just ignore him.

nyc10022, actually isn't it all RELATIVE? especially real estate. i don't think it should be watched like the stock market (except for today) let me explain. typically people are looking to buy or sell as a means to live in a home. when most people are looking TO BUY they are looking for a place to live that's in a good area sometimes close to work other times close to good schools. so they are looking for a good price affordable and at the same time providing those fundamentals. the RELATIVITY on the BUY side is if someone purchased at the height of the mkt, perhaps their salary at that time could support the high price, perhaps they sold something that they made a lot of money on it;s all relative. Sellers while looking to make a profit are also selling to live in a new place that is more suited to their situation such as moving to a bigger place to raise a family, or downsizing to retire, or relocating due to job change, family matter etc. maybe they will sell at a loss but here is the RELATIVITY on the SELL side, they will purchase something else at a low price too, sell low, buy low. Getting back to my except for today. i believe people who are selling their homes today, have to sell. This is the worse economy in a long time and i know i certainly would not put my home up for sale today unless i absolutely had to. There are many people out there that see this as a good opportunity to look into buying a home, for many its a first time purchase and there are many incentives for 1st purchases. and for some people it is not a necessity to buy but with all these apts and prices dropping, why not cease the opportunity to own a piece of the greatest city on earth. Now some people may look at people watching the RE mkt to drop as bottom feeders or sharks or birds fighting over a french fry, but lets not forget if people who have money to buy are made to feel bad about that, they'll still have the money, they just won't buy. so well have homes on the mkt, foreclosures, no activity, lots of desperation, who does that help? wellers have the option of saying no to offers, to foreclose, to take a loss, just has buyers have the right to spend what they want to spend.

oops meant seize the opportunity not cease!

congrats spinniker1... can you please let me know the unit # so I can bid 20% lower in 6 months ... thnxs :)

NYC this is not directed to you in a negative tone, i was just address your post about RE being an investment. While i believe re should be a nice little savings account. i don't believe in the fast turn, flipping etc. buy a place because you love it and want to enjoy it.

movinup, delicious freudian slip on your part...

LOL mimi

> nyc10022, actually isn't it all RELATIVE?

Nope.

Sorry, your response still doesn't change the answer.

There are bulls and bears, but you don't HAVE to have an agenda if you are logical in the middle. Plenty of folks will buy when cheap, and rent when cheap.

Pretending they don't exist doesn't make sense, and nothing you have said contradicts my point.

" the RELATIVITY on the BUY side is if someone purchased at the height of the mkt, perhaps their salary at that time could support the high price, perhaps they sold something that they made a lot of money on it;s all relative."

This isn't what relative means.

Fact is, there is a middle logical set, and nothing you have said contradicts that point.

ok don't want to debate and i'm not trying to contradict. i'm (just me) looking at re estate as a place to live and not an investment. people here get excited about being a bull or bear and love to stick it to each other. my point about relativity is if you are buying a place to live in that's what you should do, and always be prepared to live in that home for at least 5 years. everyone knows econmy is cyclical, there's ups and downs, it spins round and round, not up forever not down forever. so when people bought in 2007 -2008 and were paying astronomical prices, their salaries should have been able to support that, or perhaps they made a profit on a sale. so now they should be moved into their new place and stay put until they have to move. to think there are people out there (bears) who are yelling to those bulls ha ha you over paid and now look you're stupid you lost money. well that's IMHO sick.

nyc10022,
Human nature. Day before the purchase, you are the biggest bear in town, finally pulling the trigger. the day after you close, you awake to find 'bull' horns growing out of your head. If your in the middle the day before and your in the middle the day after your either Dr.Spock or your devoid of intelectual normal human behavioral traits. I've read your postings so I'm not ruling out the later possibilty...Dr. Spock. Most of us are trying to decern trends and make careful plans. My dream, most of you already know, I buy the exact moment the market bottoms from an estate sale where the benificiary has desperate money troubles and accepts a crazy low bid without a counter offer. I don't think this will really happen but if some sort of thing happens within the bottom 6 months of the market I will look back on this experience as a tremendous win. You know what they say, What to get an A? Start by doing the homework.

I own RE in manhattan. FYI.

movingup1, I am much happier about the correcting the mis-allocation of society's resources than I am about people losing money.... but for shits and giggles... I like to put in some I told you so's.... that's all, just a bit of fun at other peoples' stupidity... I'm not making fun of the handicapped, starving 3rd world kids or raped women of Afghanistan... just the 20x leveraged hair salon owner that owns 15 homes in and around NYC... that's all, and you can add in some bankers, hair plug docs, mini-madoffs, and ericho75.

a) congrats
b) if you found something 20% of a truly legit 2004 comp AND you have a 10 year horizon, you will most probably be at least "ok" in the long run, however,
c) Sometimes it's hard to distinguish between a "special apartment" and a "white elephant". Even in good markets, you have to be careful about white elephants. There have been several times where I bought "great" units at "great" prices and doing much worse on the deal than I thought I would because the places were odd enough that I was dealing with a very narrow segment of the market as buyers. And when I hear about this seller having to drop to 20% off a 2004 price, I have to wonder if this is not the case UNLESS you have found a unit which for some reason hasn't seen a full market exposure or is the result of a sudden urgency on the part of the seller.

right now me myself, id call me a ground hog, waiting to find my shadow.....
got my eye on a new development with some shadow inventory that is!

White elephant? I hope not.. it may be more of a market exposure issue coupled with some urgency on the part of the seller.

..and W81st, you tenacious SOB, there is no way you'll pry any more out of me until I'm in the clear.

I'm a little surprised nobody else seems to be talking up their deals on here... Come to think of it, maybe its not such a good idea. Hmmm actually probably a really stupid idea.

Alright, so forget about finding out where I'm going to live. I'm excited, wife's excited, a decent deal, etc.. maybe I'll email W81st, we'll see..

W67th, if you're a solid 850 I'll rent it to you and let you pay the mortgage during my sabbatical ; )

Spinnaker.........congrats........happy sailing

you turn bullish, then you buy
if you own, and you turn bearish, then you sell.

Not the other way around.

You are not a bear and then you buy. You may want prices to go down so you can buy more chealy, but you don't expect prices to go down otherwise you'd continue to wait.
You are not a bull and then you sell. You may want prices to rise so you can sell for more money, but you don't expect prices to rise otherwise you wouldn't be putting your place on the market.

Trying to talk the market down is different from being bearish.