crime rates falling..even with a recession and RE falling?!?!

This is great news!

People have been scared thinking that this city will be the 1970s and so they have been considering selling so this may stop the decline, great news!

Crime rates falling? Not in the Village: "NYPD BEEFS UP PATROLS TO COMBAT CRIME SURGE"

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06012009/news/regionalnews/village_blitz_171918.htm

I think the high crime rates from the 70's was due to the very high number of heroin junkies.
Heroin is not as "fashionable" anymore, i doubt we'd come anywhere close from the 70's again.

We don't need to go back to the 70s (and I hope we don't) to see further negative impact on prices. The mid-90s were a whole other world for many neighborhoods.

Crime is up in NYC, just as I have predicted all along. Those who want prices to fall 50% can look forward to more increases in crime.

crime in my hood down 18% this year over last...

I think heroin just moved:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/31/us/31border.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=heroin&st=cse

While I think that the fears of a return to the 1970s are overblown, I also think that is partly because it just isn't cheap to live in the city any more. Back in the good old bad old days, cost of living was very low. Now heroin use appears to be surging in states where there are low housing costs and a lack of jobs. What I find most bothersome is how some people are using heroin as an inexpensive substitute for expensive prescription drugs. Inexpensive, of course, until you factor in rehab and the prospect of overdosing.

But yeah, crime down is always a good thing.

There are some mysterious demographic factors afoot, about which we will know little until it's too late. Lots of theories abound on decline of crime - legalization of abortion being one of them.

Yes, we can thank our dear Freakanomics authors for that particularly nasty and IMHO unfounded theory.

Regardless, we won't know until it's over.

Crime is not up in "NYC". Its up in some precincts downtown. That same batch of reports showed other neighborhoods way down. The last stats available show crime in NYC as a whole down. Alpine is a big fat lying __________.

oh, ok. So unless crime is up in EVERY precinct, then crime is down. So if crime is up in 99% of precincts, according to you, crime is down since 1% of precincts saw crime decline.

No, you idiot. I said crime for the ENTIRE CITY on average is down. Not in every precinct. You are just stupid some times. The average person in NYC, all five boroughs, was less likely to experience a crime in 2008 than in 2007, and no individual crime spree in one part of the city negates the overall trend. Even in just Manhattan alone, crime is down, on average.

Murder was up 5% last year:

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/local&id=6583726&rss=rss-wabc-article-6583726

the murder rate doesn't affect me... I wasn't murdered in the last year... useless data point...

evnyc, meth use is up significantly in the heartland as well. that abortion argument is foul.

as 10023 says, nothing to do but wait. all across the country police forces are being reduced, or as in NYC, their administrative staff is being eliminated, which keeps them at their desks doing paperwork but sounds better than cutting the police force numbers.

the layoffs at the state and local government levels are pretty frightening, but i think NYC and state will do generally better than many other metro areas. i can't even imagine what it's like to live in California these days. teachers going on hunger strikes.

I was murdered last week.

Jason, arguing with Alpine is futile. Picture a guy wearing an "I HATE NY" t-shirt and his head buried in sand and you have the veritable likeness of our New Jersey friend.

AR, when that book came out I made it into that chapter and elected not to finish the rest. I've been semi-following meth use by state (interestingly, the Dept. of Homeland Security has a lot of info on meth use) for a side project I may never finish, and you're right. What was urban poverty in the 1970s has gradually shifted to rural poverty. Some of the problems went away but many simply became less visible.

W67th, your data analysis does make me laugh!

I don't think the abortion arg. is "foul" - it may be incorrect but not foul.

splitting hairs there, 10023. if it's incorrect, then it's a bit nasty, methinks.

Right, but I'm inferring (perhaps incorrectly) that it was considered foul because something "good" resulted from the death of little (most likely unwhite) babies. I wonder if that Deb person is going to jump all over me now.

Alpine, I said CRIME. All crimes. You are still wrong. And nationwide, real estate prices are down, yet crime is down. How does that work? It means, ummmm...oh yeah you are wrong.

well, deb does seem a bit jumpy. but i have deb on ignore. i used to think ignore was a bit cowardly, but i'm a convert now.

as you might be able to guess, i am entirely pro-choice and i believe that there is no justification for limiting access to abortions in any way.

no i think it's nasty because it is a simplistic reduction of a very nuanced issue, and might promote the idea that the problem has largely "been taken care of," when i don't think it has. as evnyc points out, the problems are still there, they just don't present in the same way or with the same sense of urgency as when they mainly were found in larger urban settings.

What is most stupid about your post is this bit:

"While New York and Chicago saw an uptick in slayings last year, other cities including Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Los Angeles had fewer violent deaths in '08 than '07"

Hmmm...if your arguement is that [real estate prices go down = crime goes up], then shouldn't LA, Phili, and Detroit have done WORSE than NYC, not better?

Again. You prove yourself wrong.

Ahhhh, yes, New York City crime is DOWN...

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/08aprelim/table_4mt-oh.html

As i might add, from previous arguments, is Las Vegas, despite its huge plunge in RE prices. Also Phoenix. Also Los Angeles. Also Miami. Also Detroit. Hmmmm, but I thought Alpine said that crime went up when real estate prices went down?

Could Alpine be FOS? I think so.

People would have to leave NY in greater numbers than we're currently seeing, don't you think?
Anybody remember what 84th between amsterdam and columbus was like 20 years ago?
Do you think it will get back to that (let alone junkies looking to score in times sqr!)
Hell, even 15th and 10th ave is safe!

"Right, but I'm inferring (perhaps incorrectly) that it was considered foul because something "good" resulted from the death of little (most likely unwhite) babies."

Actually, 10023, my beef with the argument is a lot more complex than that. It's foul because it assumes correlation is causation, and that alone should be intellectually suspect, not celebrated, as that book was. But since this is a real estate board, I won't go any further than to say that I am firmly pro-choice and shudder to think of the arguments that tend to arise out of such intellectually lazy populist analysis.

I think the macro demographic trends are going to continue to drive where crime happens and who it happens to. Macro trends indicate increasing concentration of populations in cities, alongside decreasing wealth in rural areas. Drug dens are popping up in abandoned homes in California's inland empire, not in Alphabet City. Alpine, of course, has his own conclusions.

"Also Phoenix."

Are you freakin joking me? Phoenix is the kidnapping capital of the U.S. There are more kidnappings in Pheonix than in IRAQ! That's right, IRAQ!!!!!!!

Quit cherry picking Jason. According to your FBI chart:

Murder is UP
Rape is UP
Robbery is UP
Property crime is UP
Theft is UP

More crimes are up than down. So crime overall is up. Or does every single type of crime have to be up in order for a crime increase to register in your dense head?

alpine, you should leave then, now. where will you go?

84th between amsterdam and columbus was really nice like 20 years ago.

good question. Maybe I will move to Alaska or rural Vermont so that the gang bangers can't get me.

AH: are you serious or jesting? Ams. was apparently totally no-go according to my native UWSer friends.

"Crime is up in NYC, just as I have predicted all along. Those who want prices to fall 50% can look forward to more increases in crime."

This is just sour grapes from the guy who can't afford NYC...

The bellwether crime is Robbery. That is up slightly from 2007 to 2008 in NYC, which is a little unsettling and something to be watched. The huge crime spree in the 80's was almost entirely due to the rise of drug gangs and their violence. That all finally subsided in the 90's, and no real crime spikes have occurred since.

Worst borough for violent crime = Brooklyn.

(formerly analyst for NYC Dept of Correction)

how can I not afford Manhattan you asshole? I've owned in Manhattan for 13 years!! I can buy and sell you with my pocket change.

alpine, I just don't get your crime thing. Quite a few of us were here 20 and 30 years ago and were no more impacted by crime than we are now. Your whole shtick seems to be derived more from 1970's movies than from reality.

If the crime rate goes up, it won't be because RE values went down. But that goes without saying.

yes yes... but 20 yrs ago... I was the one holding the gun.... now I'm running away from the MLK kids... around 8 a.m. and 3 p.m. :)

Ah, you big-city kids.... All we had in the boonies was drugs.

"Quit cherry picking Jason. According to your FBI chart:"

According to my FBI chart TOTAL crime is down in all of the cities I mentioned. you are the one who cherrypicks only the crimes that are up, and ignores the ones that are down, or the OVERALL crime rate. Phoenix crime is down OVERALL.

oh, so now were talking about OTHER cities. You know that crime in NYC is UP, so you changed the topic to OTHER cities, even when I apready pointed out that crime in Phoenix is UP.

NWT, i was in the boonies, and my best friend had four brothers who were dealers. two of them were generally out free at any given time. i got kicked out of eighth grade for drug use, in the boonies. the big bad city is not necessarily any more big and bad than anywhere else.

"According to my FBI chart TOTAL crime is down in all of the cities I mentioned."

NOT in NYC.

aboutready, it's funny how that works. Some were always messed up, others never were, with little correlation that I can see with who f'd up later. Kids are so resilient, in some ways.

alpine, when we stop seeing non-beater cars parked on the street, and start seeing those club things in cars again, then I'll start to believe that it matters.

what's a non-beater car?

A new/new-ish well-cared-for car. My neighborhood's full of good cars parked on the street, whereas you used to see only old clunker nothing-to-lose cars. I haven't seen a "no radio" sign on a car in years.

oh man, i haven't heard or thought of that in years. the old sign "no radio. REALLY!"

NWT, some of my eighth grade teachers wouldn't have given me an A if a had been able to recite the consitution without flaw, and analyze its inherent strength and weaknesses, with some references they wouldn't have been able to understand themselves (not all teachers, some). others, however, were amazingly kind and pulled me out in a way that still makes me feel humble. some children are messed up, and can be pulled up. some parents are messed up and are unredeemable. i can see some correlation, but maybe because i was there.

LOL right, forgot about that one.

NWT,

criminals drive nice cars. Go to LA and it's not unusual to see a pimped out Escalade with tinted windows rolled down slightly with guns sticking out spraying the neighborhood with bullets.

you complete idiot...this is not about the criminals cars. you never cease to amaze me. are you 12?

alpine, just take my word on this: the cars parked night after night around WEA and 72nd do not belong to criminals. The odds are against any cars parked anywhere belonging to criminals.

Jesus god, this is what I get for breaking my "don't argue with crackpots" rule.

Goodnight all, and happy b'day aboutready.

nyc10023, totally serious. Amsterdam below 96th hasn't really been no-go since the mid-late 1980s.

Mannes School of Music is a block from there, and by that time the bar & restaurant scene that had held court on Columbus Ave in the W. 70s had moved to Amsterdam Ave. in the high 70s to low 80s. Sadly, the Amsterdam Ave. bars were vomitoria, unlike their Columbus Ave. predecessors. But at least they weren't the dull boutiques that took over on Columbus.

And as for the specific block of 84th (Ams/Col), I had a very good friend who lived on 84th off CPW, and we'd walk the direct route back to her place all the time. It was what it was, which isn't radically different from what it is. They spiffed up the play-yard thing (83rd or 84th on Amsterdam) a bit at some point, and that's nice, but who cares?

I can't say "who cares" without remembering Ratzo Rizzo's great line at the loft-party buffet.

alanhart, 1985 was still pretty sketchy. within about two years, not so much. so of course, i had to move from sort of sketchy to very. (honesty forces me to admit i only spent a few months on the UWS before i decamped to Chelsea, back then more than a bit sketchy, and i was in a sketchy within a sketchy so to speak). I loved it.

Fort Green/Clinton Hill has always been somehow dodgy no matter how glamorous the medias want to portrait the neighborhood.
Read this and get a hint:
http://fort-greene.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/the-week-in-crime-lots-of-it/
It's far from being the West village of Brooklyn. The few blocks square of amazing brownstones are surrounded by housing projects. It's time people realize paying close to $2Millions for one of them is not worth it.
I may start a new thread about Brooklyn being the most over rated neighbourhood in the country. I'm sick of seeing prices that are totally unjustified.

sledgehammer, the same could be said of Carnegie Hill. Or Chelsea. Or parts of the Upper West Side. Just because you wouldn't pay that much for a place there doesn't mean that there aren't others who would. It's funny - someone yesterday said a very similar thing about the village being overrated. People need to drop the mindset that what they find appealing or unappealing is a universally held sentiment.

BJW, if you start digging deeper with most properties you may have some interest in, you will probably notice than most of them a marked with a 70% premium over the price the seller paid for anytime between 2004/2007. I've looked over 45 properties, and that's the average % i found. I understand we live in a capitalist country but i don't think people are stupid enough to pay 70% more today compare to 2004. No wonder why sales in Brooklyn fall over 57%. Also, taxes in Brooklyn are lower than Manhattan so expect less police to protect you.

Crime in NYC is down 12.34% YOY.
http://nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cscity.pdf

Violent crime is down over 15% YOY.

sledgehammer...crime in Ft. Greene, Brooklyn is extremely low.

http://nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs088pct.pdf

sledgehammer, I definitely don't disagree that many many properties have been overpriced - my point was that your singling out Brooklyn as "the most overrated neighborhood in the country" is off-base. Sales were down 48% in Manhattan in Q1 and down 36% in Brooklyn. The dropoff was pervasive. As for the comment about "less police to protect you," that's a bit simplistic, don't you think? I don't know how you can make such a direct correlation.

"According to my FBI chart TOTAL crime is down in all of the cities I mentioned."

Alpine: NOT in NYC.

Jason: Yes, it is dummy. Total crime in NYC is down, per the FBI. Crime in the catagories you cherry picked may be up, but OVERALL its down.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/08aprelim/table_4mt-oh.html

There were 399,882 TOTAL crimes in 2007 and 396,838 in 2008. That is DOWN.

And as for other cities, you were the one who pointed supposed increased crime in Detroit, LV, Phonenix etc as proof that real estate declines led to high crime. Yet despite the fact that home prices declined from the peak levels by MUCH more than NYC in those aformentioned cities, crime was still down.

Finally, as kindeka posted above, year to date crime in NYC is down sharply, includign violent crime - despite an acceleration in property value declines.

Too bad your FBI chart does not factor in kidnappings. Otherwise, crime in Pheonix would be off the charts. And since kidnappings are NOT part of those FBI charts, I do not see how you can possibly argue that crime there is down consdiering that kidnappings are up about 300%.

bjw, according to the PDE Q1 report,sales in Brooklyn dropped 36% compared to the prior quarter BUT sales in Brooklyn dropped 57% compare to the prior year. So somehow we're both right on the numbers.
Now, you may find my argument about less police a bit simplistic but no matter what the Fort green crime rates reports, from a real life experience, 4 out of 5 of my friends that were mugged in the street since the last 2 years were mugged in the Fort Green/Clinton Hill area... I'm not making this up.

Well, i'll give you a correlation. I don't mind getting mugged once in a while if i pay the right price for housing. But what i don't think is fair is to pay 50% more than what the property is worth and deal with all the inconvenience of the surrounding and commute to the city.

you don't mind getting mugged? WTF? If someone dare tried to mug me, they are going home in a hearst.

what's patty doing these days?

Liberate Symbionesia now!!!!

Yes, kidnappings are up in one news story you linked to on Phoenix. That SAME EXACT news story said it was due to Mexican drug gang wars spilling over the border. Period, full stop, that was THE reason - and the same reason Housotn and Dallas etc were seeing sharp increases in kidnapping - EVEN THOUGH TEXAS CITIES were not real estate bubble cities, and thus saw much smaller declines. Cities not touched yet by the Mexican gang violence, like SD, LA, LV, and Miami have all had just as steep decines in housing prices yet have far fewer kidnappings that either non-bubble Dallas and buble city Phoenix.

After 5,000 posts you still have not shown any evidence that total crime rates increase because of a decline in real estate prices. We, on the other hand, have shown you ample evidence that the exact opposite has been true of late. I don't think lower property values creates less crime, but you have shown zero evidence of the opposite.