NYC properties going down?

yes - they are still in denial here -- they saw a brief uptick in activity and are no convinced it's back to 2006. wait a few more months when the desperation sets in. btw a broker must present your offer to the seller-- if they are refusing you need to report them.

Be patient, today123. My husband and I make similar offers and get no responses. Sellers will have to be more flexible if they want to sell in this market. And it's only going to get worse.

and buyers have to be more flexible if they wan to buy in this market sweetheart, including you and your husband. Most sellers are not desperate and will have no problem telling you where to stick your miserble excuse of an offer.

Why do you all think that the sellers you're dealing with are desperate? Maybe, and I'm just spitballing here, they are just fine and are just selling in the normal course of their lives/businesses. I think people like you all create this massive illiquid market in R/E. You read some story about some bunch of fools out in Arizona that overpaid for a tract of desert and when their prices correct for this distortion, you think that also applies to Manhattan. I'm not saying Manhattan R/E is not overvalued but remember, R/E is all about location, location, location!

I agree with alpine292 ... maybe you just still cannot afford to live in Manhattan.

same here. bid 30% low and the sellers some times take 15% to 20% cut right away. not enough!

I know of somepleace where all the lowball bargain hunter predatory bottom feeder vultures can buy. It's called BROOKLYN!

ManhattanKing, how much did Manhattan prices fall after the 1987 stock market crash? And how long did it take to return to the peak?

Alpine lives in New Jersey, the Garden State, Second State to Sign The United States Constitution.

well then sorry kevin, I guess your not cut out for Manhattan. The 4:45 to Hoboken leaves soon. Hurry up and you can catch it. Seriously, when was the last time anyone bought something for 30% below asking? A car? Clothing? Food? Gas? Why do you feel yur so entitled to 30% discounts?

then change your handle.... try " alpine292whonowlivesinNYC" or "nolongeralpine292" or aplinewho?"

Why do you feel yur so entitled to 30% discounts?

Because bubble prices are not sustainable after a crash. Prices are going down, down, down!
Be patient 123, you'll get your 30/40% discount at the right time. High unemployment & tight credit tell us we're far from popping up the Champagne bottle.

on the low end of the market (studios) prices are dropping and sellers are very willing to negotiate...every seller has his/her reason why they're selling...you need to find that one seller who needs to get out and is willing to work with you. don't give up!

I think you have cause and effect right here in this short thread. A lot of sellers are pissed off they bought into the hype and now the only buyers nosing around are offering them 30% haircuts. Instead of accepting it they get angrier and angrier and tell people to go to hell (or Brooklyn or Hoboken). Unfortunately for the sellers their anger is self-defeating as the end result is even less interest.

It's a standoff.

Sellers are frustrated because few are hitting their offer prices.

Buyers are frustrated becasue few are hitting their bid prices.

Bid/offer spreads are very wide. However, it seems clear that prices are moving in the direction of the sellers' bids. Unfortunately, unlike the stock market it is going to be a long process before transactions pick up because of the wide differences in perspectives as to the value of properties.

malthus: or not every seller here is an investor and some may have bought a home to live in (there is a novel idea) and will take ridiculous offers just because someone read that Arizona R/E dropped back down to where they should've been all along. Ultimately, this is still Manhattan and unique in every way and as long as people need land, they will want a piece of Manhattan. Whether prices are overvalued or whatever, I won't debate because I don't know, but what I do know is Manhattan is a very resiliant place, so don't count it out yet.

Just like Internet stocks in 2000.

malthus says " A lot of sellers are pissed off they bought into the hype"

actually most of the units bought in Manhattan were not purchased during the "hype". A very small percentage of total units were actually purchased from 2007-2009 probably less than 5 %.

So most owners are sitting on properties that have increased in value since the owners bought them.

That is what the bottom feeding low ballers dont understand.

we're back to "Manhattan is different" again. LOL!

today123 -- just wait, in a year these fool sellers will wish they had accepted your -30% offer! You'll have your pick of places at 50% off.

if i would be a seller who is willing to accept 30% less, I would first make my broker advertise my property for 20-25% less and see what happens. i wouldn't be surprised if there were multiple offers then and ended up with closer to 20% rathen 30% off.

"That is what the bottom feeding low ballers dont understand."

You say this like it's a bad thing - getting a lowball offer accepted is a pretty great feeling for most buyers, no?

Well, by hype I meant the "manhattan is special" arguments still being trotted out, not a specific time period. And I appreciate your optimism, but I think that if most people trying to sell today could get 2005 prices for their places they would take it and not look back.

"no, Alpine does not live in NJ you fucking A hole."

alpine must live in a very pathetic world given his consistently lousy demeanor.
i think he's likely got an awful financial situation stuck way up his ass!!!

and no way out so he trolls around here endlessly!!!

But say you cut your price 30% -- why shouldn't they offer 30% less than that?

Reading the tea leaves... Manhattan has (one of?) the highest % of outright ownership - no mortgage - properties (I did read this somewhere - can't find it now). It also has a very low % of underwater properties in comparison to the rest of the country: 6.4% of the homes purchases in the last 5 years. http://www.nypost.com/seven/05242009/business/city_hit_by_underwater_homes_170779.htm. Nationally some sources report 20% of homes are underwater. This may change - the last two downturns for NYC took longer, but went just as far down as other major markets. For me - searching for a two bedroom property for over a year now - this explains why there is a lot of property out there, but most of it is unattractive: those who are in trouble and need to sell are those who bought more recently, and they tended to buy boring properties (yes this is subjective - I hate small white boxes). Anybody have any stats or data on this?

"no, Alpine does not live in NJ you fucking A hole."

alanhart, his handle is an anagram. Mix the letters around and you will see...it comes out "douchebag" every which way. It is fun for the whole family.

Favorite Ironic Kettle-Pot Post Of The Day:

alpine292
45 minutes ago

well then sorry kevin, I guess your not cut out for Manhattan. The 4:45 to Hoboken leaves soon. Hurry up and you can catch it.

These threads always sort of crack me up. "30% below asking" or "1,000 a sq ft". Without any context this means nothing. Is this building 15 CPW? Time Warner? 30% below asking is irrelevant if the units price is, say, already reduced 30% from a year ago. 1,000 a sq ft has a value relative to the location and the quality of the product, not simply as a price point taken in a vacuum. Also, I never understand the frustration (bordering on anger at times from appearances) of buyer's from perceived stubborn sellers. Don't buy it if you don't want it at that price, perhaps it drops to what you are looking for and are proven right, perhaps you miss the property (not such a bad thing w/ inventory what it is). But why all the railing about those pie in the sky asking prices . . .

I don't get it. You like the property enough to live there, so you bid 30% less then asking? If you think it's only worth 70% of it's current asking price you think real estate will fall more in value. So why not just wait a little while longer and bid something more reasonable like 10% off asking. Even the gap doesn't go from 100%-70% right away. People have no damn patience.

the kops - I have the stats and they show that you do, indeed, hate small white boxes.

Craberry: because it's always worth a shot. Worst case, they say no (or better yet, the dirty broker doesn't even tell the client...)
Cause (say it with me) brokers are dirty stinking liars!

crusing black car wanted $15 to take me home (would have been $20 3 months ago); offered him $10...he accepted. 33% off asking. everybody who's doing business these days is making deals .... get real.

"1,000 a sq ft has a value relative to the location and the quality of the product, not simply as a price point taken in a vacuum."

I agree totally. A random number tells us nothing.

If you think you can get it for 30% less, then good for you! If the buyers think they can get more, they'll just say no. It's nothing personal. Some of these owners will get much closer to what they are asking for and some will be very upset. Time will tell.

The reason people bid 30% less because most asking prices are unrealistic. I have seen well priced properties got sold very quickly. Wheather you bot your place during the hype or earlier...regardless people are kicking themselves for not sell it earlier. The ass kicking is only going to get more painful!

And when your property has been on the market for seven months and all you've received are offers 30% off asking, you should get the message.

"The ass kicking is only going to get more painful!" Yes and there seem to be a lot of Artie Fufkins milling about.

We've been deluded by the last ten years of boom times. It's not going to be like that now or again. Be patient, if the seller wants to sell, he/she will look at your 30percent lower bid in a year and be kicking themselves for not accepting it. It's only going to go lower for the next couple of years.

rlmnyc - But, some of these people don't HAVE TO sell. They may just wait it out and see what the future brings. Unless they are pushed financially or because of death, disease, job relocation or birth of more kids they are not obligated to sell their apartment. So, they may feel if they cannot get X for it, they'll just stay put or keep it on the market and see what happens.

Same goes for buyers. They don't have to pay more than they want to, but they cannot be upset if they lose out on an apartment because someone else was willing to pay more.

You're right, waverly. I suspect, however, that neither sellers nor their brokers particularly care for keeping the apartment constantly ready for presentation or open for several hours every single Sunday to anybody who walks in off the street.

"if the seller wants to sell, he/she will look at your 30percent lower bid in a year and be kicking themselves for not accepting it."

Maybe...maybe not. We don't know anything about the apartment, location, price, etc. Too many black & white / all-or-nothing predictions being thrown around (as usual). Remember, things are most often not black and white, but rather gray and murky. Past downturns may be similar to this one, or this could be much worse, or maybe it won;t be as bad or as long. No one has a crystal ball. If they did, they wouldn't be posting on SE. They would be out celebrating all of the sports bets they have been winning.

Prices aren't coming down as many have noted. The good neighborhoods with good school zone are down about 10-15% on average from peak.
I agree with a few people here, too many people in NYC can't afford to live in Manhattan.

that's true...and less and less can afford it at present levels. wonder what that means.

CarolSt... There are plenty of threads with a ton of examples that prove you wrong on pricing. I encourage you to take a look.

Carolst, prices are not coming down that much?

318 East 30th Street TOWNHOUSE

Sales listings: 1 previous

STREETEASY HISTORY
10/26/2007
Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $5,500,000.
01/28/2008
Price decreased by 11% to $4,900,000.
04/29/2008
Price decreased by 8% to $4,500,000.
06/16/2008
Price decreased by 11% to $3,995,000.
07/28/2008
Listing entered contract.
12/09/2008
Price decreased by 12% to $3,500,000.
12/10/2008
Re-listed by Sotheby's.
12/10/2008
Price decreased by 3% to $3,400,000.
01/22/2009
Price decreased by 13% to $2,950,000.
03/05/2009
Price decreased by 12% to $2,600,000.
03/28/2009
Listing entered contract.
05/12/2009
Listing sold.
05/12/2009
Sale recorded for $2,000,000.

manhattan RE is in the process of tanking and will only accelerate further to the downside as the reality fo how oversupplied the market is sets in.

I think real estate prices are going to fall 75% from peak to trough, so in general I don't agree with anyone that chooses to buy within the next decade or two for that matter. The stock market has rallied 40% off the bottom, and if I were to offer someone 30% off for a stock like GE (which I think is worth about $5 bucks) they would laugh in my face. Same thing here.

craberry, you really need to lay off the crack.

"if i would be a seller who is willing to accept 30% less, I would first make my broker advertise my property for 20-25% less and see what happens."

Exactly, if a seller asking $1 million gets an offer for $700,00, they would be much better reducing the price to $850,000 and trying their luck there than selling for $700k right off the bat. This is something that lowball buyers do not realize and need to get through their heads.

most sellers DO NOT have to sell. Take Tim Geithner. He could not get $1.5 million for his Westchester house, so what did he do? He rented it out for $7.500 a month. Very smart move.

"The reason people bid 30% less because most asking prices are unrealistic. I have seen well priced properties got sold very quickly."

So then wait until the sellers lower the price to what you are willing to pay. That is the only way you stand a remote chance at buying at a 30% disocunt. Please note that in transactions like the one mimi posted, the SELLER is the one who lowered, the price, NOT the buyer. The seller did not accept a lowball offer, but instead lowered the price on their own. If your not patient and want to buy now, then you will have to pay the seller's price.

I told you to change your handle.... believe me ... .is that the best RE advice you can give to RE owners? mkt will pick up in 12months... just subsidize the renter for one year till the market turns around.... yeah! yeah!.... maybe all the RE broker giving that same advice have any effect on why Manhattan, nay US rental prices are hurtling towards 2001/2002 prices?

alpie, did he actually rent? i'd read he couldn't sell so it was on the market for rental.

just hire someone to torch the NJ property already.

many sellers have to sell. i thought this had some remarkable charts. do take the time to pull them up.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/job-openings-vs-unemployed/

yes, the AP article said that he found a tenant. I wonder if Timmy owes any back taxes on his Larchmont house...

"just subsidize the renter for one year till the market turns around.... yeah! yeah!...."

Why would owners subsidize teants? I am renting out my NJ house, and my tenant is subsidizing ME by $1,000 a month.

I am really surprised Geithner couldn't get one of his buddies at Goldman to pay him $5 million for his house.

alpine... $1000/month to take a $100K hit in 1 yr... nice trade.....

bond math... coupon 10%, IR goes to 20%... you take a hit on your principal.... bond math.... tsk. tsk. tsk....

I'm not taking a $100k hit. I don't know what your talking about.

maybe we should all contribute for a good TI for alpine. was it taken from him?

what the heck is a TI?

hp 12c is for big kids

alpine - who gets something at a 30% discount? how about whoever bought this place:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/362004-coop-333-east-79th-street-yorkville-new-york?email=true

think of all the time and energy they could have saved if they just accepted a 30% lowball months ago.

malthus

"The ass kicking is only going to get more painful!" Yes and there seem to be a lot of Artie Fufkins milling about.

Love the reference malthus! I wonder if it is the buyers or the sellers who are the ones "smelling the glove"???

"Why do you all think that the sellers you're dealing with are desperate?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcI-gUQNhOw&feature=related

"That is what the bottom feeding low ballers dont understand."

I bet I'm the only one here who's been called that in print. I ended up buying the property for less than that offer. After i closed, I sent the attorney who made that statement one of those talking keychains that when you push the button, it spouts a random saying. I remember 2 of them: 1)"Asshole!", and 2)"Fuckin' jerk".

"These threads always sort of crack me up. "30% below asking" or "1,000 a sq ft". Without any context this means nothing. Is this building 15 CPW? Time Warner? 30% below asking is irrelevant if the units price is, say, already reduced 30% from a year ago. 1,000 a sq ft has a value relative to the location and the quality of the product, not simply as a price point taken in a vacuum."

This is why I always rail against "averages". Just for arguments sake, let's say the properties that the OP bid on all had just lowered their prices by 20%? Is getting 30% off a property which is 50% overpriced a better deal than paying full asking for one which is priced 5% below market already?

Every time someone comes out with an "average negotiability" %, a bunch of buyers pick the properties which are priced the most correctly ALREADY and then pulls out the "well expert XYZ says that average negotiability is Y% so I'm going to offer $Z".

Prices going down...yes.
Prices continue to collapse? Read what Noah thinks...

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/06/bull_market_break_out_on_tap.html

"However, it will take a lot of unexpected bad news to turn it back into a bear. "
"...a bull market is good for New York City residential real estate. You can quote me on that."

I want to see some rebuttal to this.

hey enricho...back from vacation?

A rebuttal for a tautology?

No, a rebuttal that the stock market have no impact on NYC housing.
Hey, i didn't make those claim. Most of the bears here did. Want me to post those links?

what kind of rebuttal are you looking for? it really doesn't need one. people feel wealthier when their portfolios are moving up every day, therefore they are more willing to spend.

isn't that kind of what got everyone in trouble in the first place? they felt wealthy on paper, banks felt this way too and begged them to borrow money from them. the wind blew and all that changed. now everyone is pinching pennies.

"a bull market is good for NYC Residential real estate" is basically a statement of fact, not opinion.
you don't rebutt facts (unless you are dick cheney).

it is like saying "what is better for the candy store? a five year old with $10 or a five year old with $100?" both are probably not great for the kid but we are not talking about him.

CBS reports that a condo developer in bklyn just signed a deal with the city to turn his unsold units into a housing shelter...he'll get $2700 per month, per unit from the city. Apts. include granite counters, etc...

hmm. i should be homeless in a few weeks.
how do i apply????

you don't rebutt facts (unless you are dick cheney).

thats funny

Another bull bromide reappears -- malthus: "No one has a crystal ball. If they did, they wouldn't be posting on SE."

Reality check -- It's not the stock market, it's the real estate market. Prediction -- prices will go down! See, I do have a crystal ball. I'm 100% confident that Manhattan real estate prices are dropping and will be a lot lower a year from now. See how wonderful my crystal ball is! In fact, I think MY OWN coop WILL be worth $600psf or less rather than $800psf next year. ooooh, it's like magic.

But wait, since I have a REAL ESTATE crystal ball, I suppose I should be day trading apartments???

West34, really? You're 100% certain? It's exactly these extremist viewpoints that dismiss themselves from worthwhile discussion. Fact is, no one can know for sure. Yes, there are strong indicators that prices are still softening, but this kind of bandwagon-jumping is completely shortsighted.

west34th - Thanks for proving my point!

See, I never suggested that RE prices wouldn't decline. I simply stated that no one here knows for sure how much they will go down, when things will get better or how quickly they will recover (V, U, L, etc.).

Yet, you chose to twist that into some sort of bull vs. bear diatribe, which it wasn't. I happen to think I am pretty middle of the road in my views on this topic. There is just too much extremism in people's predictions and you really took the ball and ran with it.

I will also say, way to use bromide (a solid 50 cent word) so early in the day!

yes, I'm 100% sure.

bandwagon jumping? LOL! a bit egotistical arent we? Try stepping off the island sometime. Newsflash - real estate bubble bursting discussions did not begin with Streeteasy. I have a vested interest in San Diego real estate and have been watching that market correct for 2 years now. The SoCal RE blogs -- piggingtons,irvinehousingblog, sdlookup, etc were a year ahead of Streeteasy in the masses going bearish. In fact, many of the posts here would be considered quaintly naive by SoCal standards. The reality is that the NYC correction, and the much delayed awakening of many on this board, are an amusing afterthought for many RE observers.

stox immediately ticked up following the 87 crash...NYC RE kept going way south (-40%)til mid 88..NYC RE hung on the lows til early 91..if there is a correlation btwn stox and NYC RE, NYC RE lags by years....and when it happens it wont be a V bottom...it will be an L bottom..be patient

oh...and alpo clarifies...hes got a jersey house shoved way up his ass!!

waverly, and also those who note those who own property outright without a mortgage (which is, btw, not most of those who bought from 2004-present, which are also the properties most likely to be or become underwater, which should be happening in July, when the price numbers come out for this quarter), what would you do if you were a boomer and were 10 or fewer years away from retirement? Let's say you bought that 2 bedroom in 1992 for $170k on the UWS. Are you going to risk your appreciation when the sales figures show large declines? Many people still don't think prices have fallen much at all, and are now once again hearing some mighty powerful broker spin, what will they do when it is shown that they have?

No crystal ball, but sure should be interesting.

Just for kicks, take a look at this list:

http://www.sdlookup.com/Foreclosure_Results-29+0-La_Jolla

A year and half ago there were a dozen properties on this list. And I remember the song well, it went something like this: La Jolla is different, They're not making any more land in La Jolla, foreign buyers will support La Jolla prices, there was no subprime underwriting in La Jolla, condo defaults will have no impact on La Jolla sfr's, la la la la la la.....

1rc - You raise some interesting historical points about what may happen this time. Certainly, this downturn in the economy is more painful than the stock market crash in '87. But, what differences in NYC are there today compared to 1987? What government interventions will happen now that didn't happen then to combat the downturn? How will we come out of this? Will the financial services industry be as handcuffed as some think or not? Will there be some solution to the budgetary problems that are sure to get worse in the short-term?

My point was that there are so many unknowns. There are similarities and big differences when comparing what we are experiencing to previous downturns. That is where some of the interesting discussion should be focused, instead of just predicting an L, a lost-decade or even a V.

AR - good question. Let me see here...from your example, I am 10 years away from retirement, so we'll say I am 55 years old right now. I bought my 2 BR on the UWS in 1992 for $170k. I was 38 years old then, so I have been in the prime earnings years for my career. Let's say I am an architecht with Art Vandelay's firms. I probably had a crappy rate when I bought the apartment, but would likely have refinanced once or twice as rates went down. I would think that I probably have about $60-70k left on my mortgage (20% down on $170k) which I am paying well under $1000/month + maintenance/taxes. I have been pretty flush with cash over the past 10+ years, so I hope I didn't invest too much with Madoff or get hit too much with the downturns in '01 or '08. My apartment is probably worth what....$1 million at the peak? Even with a downturn, I should be okay + I have 10 more years to sock money away. I would stay where I was. What am I risking?

I also hope that you are not insinuating that most people who bought from 2004 on are underwater if they didn't pay all cash for their apartment, are you? There is just no evidence of that at all. Are some people? Sure. Are most people? Absolutely not.

I'm being extremist on purpose. Of course we can't know with 100% certainty exactly what WILL happen. My point is that data has been dumped all over this site, ud, calculated risk, RGEm, and all the others for over a year now. we have history, both prior booms and busts in NYC and other regional markets to watch, we have supply data and we have demand data that offer compelling, and some might say convincing evidence of future local demand trends. this board is bursting with data and insightful analysis. I eagerly await more, and I could be convinced to not be so bearish if I saw anything but wishful thinking pointing to lower prices down the road.

correction -- higher prices down the road

AR - I may want to sell if I was going to retire in 1-3 years and I felt that I would have more to lose by waiting. You "should" be most conservative in your approach those last couple of years.

Bonus going down, jobs lost, net worth going way down especially those holding financial shares (which many of us owned not by choice). You can draw your own conculsion anyway you like but the crystal ball sure tells me NYC RE looks pretty dim. The only thing going up from this point on is mortgage rates. Rates have gone up 50 basis points in the past month and heading highter. That translate into an extra cost of $300 on a $1mm mortgage.

waverly, i'm not saying all, but in the condo world i'm saying a huge percentage, and in the coop world, i'd say quite a few.

what are you risking? i'd guess that would depend on what kind of risk-benefit analysis you are running, and how secure you felt in your future employment potential. and whether or not you are like many other Americans and haven't had the ability to sock away much money, given the rise in education, health care costs, etc. sending those two kids to college, if you're upper-middle-class, may have hurt a hell of a lot.

"bandwagon jumping? LOL! a bit egotistical arent we? Try stepping off the island sometime. Newsflash - real estate bubble bursting discussions did not begin with Streeteasy. I have a vested interest in San Diego real estate and have been watching that market correct for 2 years now. The SoCal RE blogs -- piggingtons,irvinehousingblog, sdlookup, etc were a year ahead of Streeteasy in the masses going bearish. In fact, many of the posts here would be considered quaintly naive by SoCal standards. The reality is that the NYC correction, and the much delayed awakening of many on this board, are an amusing afterthought for many RE observers."

I think you misunderstood my point and underestimated many people who contribute to this board - there certainly was recognition of what was going on in other markets, but the fact remains that different markets react differently and are impacted by different factors. Otherwise, everywhere would have experienced the exact same thing at the exact same time. The situation developed much later here than elsewhere, and it certainly won't have the exact same results (which is why you can't be 100% certain), so to say that San Diego or wherever "recognized" it first is a bit silly. As an aside, my dad sold his house in La Jolla a few years ago (though not because he saw a downturn coming, but because it was getting too difficult to manage from so far away).

AR - remember that almost all coops required people to put 20% down and many require more than 20% down. If you have owned your coop for 5 years you have also paid down the mortgage a bit more. To say that quite a few coops bought from 2004 on are underwater is just not accurate.

Coops are over 70% of the housing stock and probably 65% of the purchases since 2004 (does anyone have this number?). Again, are there some coops underwater? Of course. Is it a significant number of the coops purchased from 2004 on? No, it is not. The evidence just does not support this statement.

Condos, for sure, have many more issues. But, not everyone put 5% down, paid $2000/sf or bought pre-construction. Certainly this segment is more at risk, however, and the evidence does support this.

waverly, that number (%) used to be true, but i'm fairly certain it's not now. we can disagree, but i believe that many coop purchasers are underwater, particularly in the 20-25% down buildings where typically first time buyers/young families purchase. and it has been noted before, it wasn't particularly hard to get a HELOC for many coop owners. but we shall see.

for condos, i believe the 10% down and 10% piggy-back HELOC (at higher rates, of coursse) had become standard by 2006ish. even in condos you had all-cash buyers, of course, but I've heard of mortgages of $6.4mm on a $7mm purchase, which blew my mind away. not saying that was the typical loan, of course, but the fact that it occurred at all tells you something about the underwriting standards.

This blows! 5 of the 8 listings that I've been following over the past 2 months just went into contract. Who the heck is buying these over inflated prices!!

Can someone assist me on this? I'm trying to figure out what is the percentage of all Manhattan homes today that was purchased in the bubble years (2001-2008).

AR - I think the coops are in better shape than you do, but I agree that HELOC's got some people in trouble and condos are more at-risk.

I would also like to say that it's always enjoyable having a discussion with you, since even when we agree to disagree, it is respectful.

and for good measure, i'll admit i overreached a bit with my initial statement about coops. the truth is probably somewhere in between.

and yes, it is a pleasure.

Anyone ever take a look at co-ops around town, many still have signs offering to sell apartments. These are co-ops that have been owned by a sponsor, some for decades. Some of them had rent controlled or rent stabilized tenants with low cash flow, indicating the owners' or sponsors' ultimate patience.

Lots of people here like to take about developers or sponsors who aren't realistic. Not all, but many have very long-term horizons. They are comfortable selling slowly, some when markets are down and some as markets rise.

A developer of a new development which is 80% sold may be comfortable keeping higher prices on the remaining 20%.
First, no one really "knows" where the market is going, so what is wrong with someone who has taken the long bet in the past continuing to take a long bet?
Second, perhaps the 80% sold has fully covered the investment made, so the additional 20% not yet sold is all profit and therefore the pressure to sell is less?
Third, while perhaps selling the additional 20% will provide more capital for new developments, perhaps the developer knows that there is little lending for new developments and little appetite for starting something entirely new, so not only is there little need to liquidate the remaining 20%, but also that if they want to continue to be in the market with a good product they are best positioned to do it with their current inventory than new inventory.
Fourth, many developers want to live another day. By not chopping prices significantly on the 20% remaining, they maintain the goodwill of the prior purchasers in the building, and therefore maintain a buyer friendly reputation which will help them in the future with new developments.
And last, maybe the market has a temporary blip up, why wouldn't the developer want to take advantage of that blip even if only to sell a small percentage, rather than doing a wholesale cut which couldn't be absorbed by the market quickly anyway?

A lot of people think that the market is weak so they should automatically get a discount. They don't understand the developer's or seller's logic, economics, or timeframe. Try thinking about it as a chess game. Try thinking about the longer-term horizon. Try realizing that the biggest fortunes in real estate were from long-term players. The best bet, if you expect current listings at 30% off, is to be patient. If you aren't patient, the person on the other side of the deal might actually be the more patient one and will find someone to buy at a price more attractive than you are offering now ... it might even be you in a few months when you get frustrated by your own strategy.

infamous - there was athread on this recently. I think it was around 8-9,000 purchased per year. If you check on Urbandig.com you should be able to find it, as Noah wrote the article in the last week or so with chart.

actually, i've noticed quite a few sponsor unit sales recently. but yes, of course it depends on the goal of an investor.

some investors who purchase failed condo buildings at whatever on the dollar may decide to rent the units out and wait for more potential price upside. some may decide to sell immediately at a significant discount to initial listing but at a high profit margin for themselves. depends on the goal.

waverly,

Thanks. I'll poke around Urbandig.com.

The long term real estate owners, such as those who haagen suggests, won't be selling so quickly. The other buyers who bought to flip or to rent out at high prices, as long as they themselves aren't in distress, will likely hang on and rent them out cheaply. Which all means that there will be a lot of condos on the market for rent, at some really good prices, probably making the rent / buy equation, for the short term, very very attractive.

Alpine, Geithner's rent doesn't cover his nut and the value of his property is falling, not rising....and you praise him haha.

"Clothing? Food? Gas? Why do you feel yur so entitled to 30% discounts?"

Why is it personal? Why are sellers entitled to triple 1990s prices? You are the biggest joke on this board. Buyers are welcomed to hold out....this is why real estate doesn't correct as quickly as stocks.