Bad News for the SE Bears: LESS People Are unemployed!
Started by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Discussion about
Jobless benefit rolls fall, initial claims dip By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER – 2 hours ago WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls fell slightly for the first time in 20 weeks, while the tally of new jobless claims also dipped, the government said Thursday. The Labor Department report provides a glimmer of good news for job seekers, though both drops were small and... [more]
Jobless benefit rolls fall, initial claims dip
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER – 2 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls fell slightly for the first time in 20 weeks, while the tally of new jobless claims also dipped, the government said Thursday.
The Labor Department report provides a glimmer of good news for job seekers, though both drops were small and the figures remain significantly above the levels associated with a healthy economy. The job market likely will remain weak well into next year, according to estimates from government and private economists.
The department also said U.S. workers were more productive in the first quarter than previously estimated, as rapid layoffs forced companies to make do with fewer employees.
The tally of first-time claims for jobless benefits declined to a seasonally adjusted 621,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000, nearly matching analysts' expectations.
The total jobless benefit rolls fell by 15,000 to 6.7 million, the first drop since early January. Continuing claims had set record highs every week since the week ending Jan. 24.
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Response by jason10006
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
No, actually, some of the stories said some long-term unemployed may have just no longer qualify for benefits. The ACTUAL unemployment rate, which is what matters, is expected by most economists (including your boy ben) to continue to rise for the next few months. In the average post-war recession, unemployment peaks 8-10 months AFTER the economy has bottomed, so even if you are right and the bottom was March, unemployment will peak in the fourth quarter. Its never NOT happened this way.
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Response by Penier
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6
Member since: Jun 2009
Fewer people?
Does that mean more people are employed?
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
alpie nice try. I think this is a .22 percent decline? Revisions, margin of error, etc. This is still horifically high. I'll be sure to pass on you're best wishes to the next unemployed person I talk to.
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Response by jason10006
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
AP: Actual Unemployment Rate Is 15.8%, Including Underemployed
"...Consider the numbers:
_The 8.9 percent April unemployment rate was based on 13.7 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers, or people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 700,000 people, and the unemployment rate would be 9.3 percent.
_The official rate also doesn't include "marginally-attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.1 percent.
_The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 15.8 percent.
All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed, or had given up looking for a job in April...."
Yeah, let's not get too ga-ga over these numbers. Unemployment is still high and, as it was pointed out, will continue to rise over the next couple of quarters at a minimum.
That being said, and having nothing to do with NYC RE, this is some good news for the overall economy and gives some hope that maybe we are getting closer to a light at the end of the tunnel. It si still way down the tracks, but hopefully it just got a little bit closer. Recoveries are like losing weight. They take a whole lot longer and a whole lot more effort than it did to put the weight on.
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Response by jason10006
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
"Yeah, let's not get too ga-ga"
Alpine is Lada GaGa.
Just DANCE!!!
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Response by cfranch
over 17 years ago
Posts: 270
Member since: Feb 2009
and the unemployment rate is higher in nj so alpine's big pile of bricks is worth even less
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Response by eric_cartman
over 17 years ago
Posts: 300
Member since: Jun 2007
OMIGOD!! Let me go out and buy something NOW before I get priced out FOR EVER ...
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Response by falcogold1
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
That light at the end of the tunnel might just be a train...heading our way. There is the disaster and the aftermath. With some luck we are in the aftermath portion of the crisis. It amazes me how we lable ourselves bulls and bears as if we were trading stocks. It's more like the optomists and the pessimists or to be more presise...sellers and buyers and, the just bought. We are wishing and fishing for what we want. Lines are drawn based on or desires and needs. I'm in the market to buy...so for me the the sky is falling. If you read what I write you can see right through me. In fact I've joined the team the insists that the sky is falling. Just recently in the face of some good economic news we formed a posse and ran the optomists out of town (off the site). Nothing like being even handed. HA!
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Response by marco_m
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008
the real job number is tomorrow at 830 am. either over or under i say bonds will still sell off
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9913
Member since: Mar 2009
WARNING!!!!!! Do not read the following if you are easily offended!!!!!!!!!!
June 4, 1944; Good news for Jews!!!!!!!!
There are 10,000 less Jews interred as Auschwitz than last month!!!!!!!
(I'm Jewish, and lost over 50% of my family in the camps, so I claim it's ok to use such analogies. I apologize to those who disagree and are offended by my comparison).
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Response by marco_m
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
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anytime you need disclaimers, its probably not good to write. but hey if ur fine Im fine
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
actually, falco, we didn't run them off and the news really wasn't that great. better than six months ago, sure, but with the powers that be spending trillions you'd hope they'd get something for their profligate spending.
people are generally optimistic, but pessimists are better at risk analysis. (and more frequently liable to miss sudden upswings. so i got out at almost the market high, but didn't get back in for this rally. that's ok, because to me you either need to find value and buy and hold, which isn't possible easily with mutual funds, or you need to day trade, which i can't do due to the husband's job).
waverly i hope you are right, truly i do. but those numbers i see coming out of state and local governments are so frightening, and they'll show up for at least the next 2-3 months of employment figures. as well as the issue of people running out of benefits. didn't anyone else find it odd that the 4-week moving average increased somehow, when the initial claims numbers have been declining slowly but surely?
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Response by McHale
over 17 years ago
Posts: 399
Member since: Oct 2008
NO, A WHOLE BUNCH OF FOLKS DIDN'T JUST GET JOBS
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By JOHN CRUDELE \
Last updated: 1:52 am
June 4, 2009
Posted: 1:27 am
June 4, 2009
More business/p. 51
THE unemployment rate may start moving lower -- because the job situation is getting so bad.
Now that I got your attention with that obviously contradictory and puzzling sentence, let me explain.
The nation's unemployment rate is currently 8.9 percent and the experts on Wall Street are predicting it might rise to 9.2 percent when the May report comes out tomorrow.
They also think the number of job losses last month could be about 550,000, which would be slightly worse than the 539,000 jobs lost in April.
I don't think there will be any major surprises on either of those numbers.
May is one of those months when the Labor Department adds a boatload of probably non-existence jobs to its count because it wishfully believes new companies are being formed just because it's springtime.
The recession? It doesn't matter to the computers that add these phantom jobs.
This is known as the birth/death model. And that optimistic estimate should keep the number of lost jobs in check with expectations.
But the unemployment rate -- the 8.9 percent figure last month that experts are predicting will eventually rise over 10 percent -- is a bit more complicated and perplexing. The government calculates the unemployment rate in several ways.
The so-called U-3 figure is the one that makes the newspaper headlines, although there are six different ways that the Labor Department calculates the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the population.
These figures begin with phone calls to just 60,000 of the nation's 105 million households. The US Census Bureau asks the people who answer the phone their employment status.
The results are then scientifically extrapolated for the entire population, seasonally adjusted, nipped and tucked and, voila, delivered to you the first Friday of every month.
The Labor Department swears that the size of the sample is plenty large. And it doesn't think there is a problem with the respondents telling the truth.
OK, I'll be cooperative and buy that.
But here's my point today: Changes made in 1994 could cause the unemployment rate to actually decline if the economy gets so bad and jobs become so scarce that people become too discouraged to even look for work.
Under the changes made in 1994, a person is considered discouraged if he says he hasn't looked for work in the last four weeks.
If it's been a month since he's looked for a job, the unemployed person falls out of the U-3 category -- and the headlines -- and into something called U-6.
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The U-6 unemployment rate is already 15.8 percent, up from 8.9 percent in April 2008. So lots of people are being demoted into this category, which also includes people who say they want full-time work but can only find part-time employment.
Since the US has lost jobs in every month since Dec., 2007, it's easy for people to just give up and fall out of the U-3 category. If they totally give up, the would-be workers could even fall out of the U-6 survey and into statistical oblivion.
*
Finally, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has done something brilliant. I take that back, this goes beyond brilliant.
As part of his recent groveling mission to China, Geithner announced that he was adding a guy named David Dollar to his "financial leadership team for China."
No kiddin', that's the guy's real name.
I don't who Mr. Dollar is, or a thing about his background.
But from now on Geithner can -- with a straight face -- tell the Chinese what they want to hear. The Obama administration, despite the fact that it is printing currency to paper over deficits, believes in a strong Dollar.
Mr. Dollar that is -- and the administration hopes this gentleman spends as much time at the gym as possible getting fit.
Reuters reported this week that Chinese students laughed loudly when Geithner addressed a group at Peking University this week and said that "Chinese assets are very safe" in the US.
And a former Chinese government official warned that his country has plenty of places to invest besides America if Washington doesn't protect its currency. Perhaps they haven't heard yet about our strong (Mr.) Dollar policy.
*
Our financial markets are extremely risky and strange things are going on.
The price of long-maturity government bonds collapsed again earlier this week, as did the value of the dollar.
But the stock market keeps doing just fine. Some heroic investors -- the government? -- keep rescuing stocks whenever the Standard & Poor's 500 index dips near the crucial 875 point level.
And last Friday someone -- perhaps JPMorgan Chase, a recipient of government funds -- bought a whole lot of stock futures con tracts in the last 30 minutes of trading to cause a nice rally.
Was that just some end-of-the-month ma nipulation or did Wash ington want stock prices to be jubilant in front of Monday's tricky General Motors bankruptcy?
I'll boil it down. Be careful, someone is goofing around with stocks and we don't know why.
If Friday's employment report shows too much economic strength, the bond market could get whacked and interest rates will rise some more. Stocks? Ask whoever has their thumb on the button.
john.crudele@nypost.com
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Response by McHale
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NO, A WHOLE BUNCH OF FOLKS DIDN'T JUST GET JOBS
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By JOHN CRUDELE \
Last updated: 1:52 am
June 4, 2009
Posted: 1:27 am
June 4, 2009
More business/p. 51
THE unemployment rate may start moving lower -- because the job situation is getting so bad.
Now that I got your attention with that obviously contradictory and puzzling sentence, let me explain.
The nation's unemployment rate is currently 8.9 percent and the experts on Wall Street are predicting it might rise to 9.2 percent when the May report comes out tomorrow.
They also think the number of job losses last month could be about 550,000, which would be slightly worse than the 539,000 jobs lost in April.
I don't think there will be any major surprises on either of those numbers.
May is one of those months when the Labor Department adds a boatload of probably non-existence jobs to its count because it wishfully believes new companies are being formed just because it's springtime.
The recession? It doesn't matter to the computers that add these phantom jobs.
This is known as the birth/death model. And that optimistic estimate should keep the number of lost jobs in check with expectations.
But the unemployment rate -- the 8.9 percent figure last month that experts are predicting will eventually rise over 10 percent -- is a bit more complicated and perplexing. The government calculates the unemployment rate in several ways.
The so-called U-3 figure is the one that makes the newspaper headlines, although there are six different ways that the Labor Department calculates the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the population.
These figures begin with phone calls to just 60,000 of the nation's 105 million households. The US Census Bureau asks the people who answer the phone their employment status.
The results are then scientifically extrapolated for the entire population, seasonally adjusted, nipped and tucked and, voila, delivered to you the first Friday of every month.
The Labor Department swears that the size of the sample is plenty large. And it doesn't think there is a problem with the respondents telling the truth.
OK, I'll be cooperative and buy that.
But here's my point today: Changes made in 1994 could cause the unemployment rate to actually decline if the economy gets so bad and jobs become so scarce that people become too discouraged to even look for work.
Under the changes made in 1994, a person is considered discouraged if he says he hasn't looked for work in the last four weeks.
If it's been a month since he's looked for a job, the unemployed person falls out of the U-3 category -- and the headlines -- and into something called U-6.
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No, actually, some of the stories said some long-term unemployed may have just no longer qualify for benefits. The ACTUAL unemployment rate, which is what matters, is expected by most economists (including your boy ben) to continue to rise for the next few months. In the average post-war recession, unemployment peaks 8-10 months AFTER the economy has bottomed, so even if you are right and the bottom was March, unemployment will peak in the fourth quarter. Its never NOT happened this way.
Fewer people?
Does that mean more people are employed?
alpie nice try. I think this is a .22 percent decline? Revisions, margin of error, etc. This is still horifically high. I'll be sure to pass on you're best wishes to the next unemployed person I talk to.
AP: Actual Unemployment Rate Is 15.8%, Including Underemployed
"...Consider the numbers:
_The 8.9 percent April unemployment rate was based on 13.7 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers, or people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 700,000 people, and the unemployment rate would be 9.3 percent.
_The official rate also doesn't include "marginally-attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.1 percent.
_The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 15.8 percent.
All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed, or had given up looking for a job in April...."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/04/unemployment-rate-parttim_n_211548.html
Yeah, let's not get too ga-ga over these numbers. Unemployment is still high and, as it was pointed out, will continue to rise over the next couple of quarters at a minimum.
That being said, and having nothing to do with NYC RE, this is some good news for the overall economy and gives some hope that maybe we are getting closer to a light at the end of the tunnel. It si still way down the tracks, but hopefully it just got a little bit closer. Recoveries are like losing weight. They take a whole lot longer and a whole lot more effort than it did to put the weight on.
"Yeah, let's not get too ga-ga"
Alpine is Lada GaGa.
Just DANCE!!!
and the unemployment rate is higher in nj so alpine's big pile of bricks is worth even less
OMIGOD!! Let me go out and buy something NOW before I get priced out FOR EVER ...
That light at the end of the tunnel might just be a train...heading our way. There is the disaster and the aftermath. With some luck we are in the aftermath portion of the crisis. It amazes me how we lable ourselves bulls and bears as if we were trading stocks. It's more like the optomists and the pessimists or to be more presise...sellers and buyers and, the just bought. We are wishing and fishing for what we want. Lines are drawn based on or desires and needs. I'm in the market to buy...so for me the the sky is falling. If you read what I write you can see right through me. In fact I've joined the team the insists that the sky is falling. Just recently in the face of some good economic news we formed a posse and ran the optomists out of town (off the site). Nothing like being even handed. HA!
the real job number is tomorrow at 830 am. either over or under i say bonds will still sell off
WARNING!!!!!! Do not read the following if you are easily offended!!!!!!!!!!
June 4, 1944; Good news for Jews!!!!!!!!
There are 10,000 less Jews interred as Auschwitz than last month!!!!!!!
(I'm Jewish, and lost over 50% of my family in the camps, so I claim it's ok to use such analogies. I apologize to those who disagree and are offended by my comparison).
anytime you need disclaimers, its probably not good to write. but hey if ur fine Im fine
actually, falco, we didn't run them off and the news really wasn't that great. better than six months ago, sure, but with the powers that be spending trillions you'd hope they'd get something for their profligate spending.
people are generally optimistic, but pessimists are better at risk analysis. (and more frequently liable to miss sudden upswings. so i got out at almost the market high, but didn't get back in for this rally. that's ok, because to me you either need to find value and buy and hold, which isn't possible easily with mutual funds, or you need to day trade, which i can't do due to the husband's job).
waverly i hope you are right, truly i do. but those numbers i see coming out of state and local governments are so frightening, and they'll show up for at least the next 2-3 months of employment figures. as well as the issue of people running out of benefits. didn't anyone else find it odd that the 4-week moving average increased somehow, when the initial claims numbers have been declining slowly but surely?
NO, A WHOLE BUNCH OF FOLKS DIDN'T JUST GET JOBS
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By JOHN CRUDELE \
Last updated: 1:52 am
June 4, 2009
Posted: 1:27 am
June 4, 2009
More business/p. 51
THE unemployment rate may start moving lower -- because the job situation is getting so bad.
Now that I got your attention with that obviously contradictory and puzzling sentence, let me explain.
The nation's unemployment rate is currently 8.9 percent and the experts on Wall Street are predicting it might rise to 9.2 percent when the May report comes out tomorrow.
They also think the number of job losses last month could be about 550,000, which would be slightly worse than the 539,000 jobs lost in April.
I don't think there will be any major surprises on either of those numbers.
May is one of those months when the Labor Department adds a boatload of probably non-existence jobs to its count because it wishfully believes new companies are being formed just because it's springtime.
The recession? It doesn't matter to the computers that add these phantom jobs.
This is known as the birth/death model. And that optimistic estimate should keep the number of lost jobs in check with expectations.
But the unemployment rate -- the 8.9 percent figure last month that experts are predicting will eventually rise over 10 percent -- is a bit more complicated and perplexing. The government calculates the unemployment rate in several ways.
The so-called U-3 figure is the one that makes the newspaper headlines, although there are six different ways that the Labor Department calculates the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the population.
These figures begin with phone calls to just 60,000 of the nation's 105 million households. The US Census Bureau asks the people who answer the phone their employment status.
The results are then scientifically extrapolated for the entire population, seasonally adjusted, nipped and tucked and, voila, delivered to you the first Friday of every month.
The Labor Department swears that the size of the sample is plenty large. And it doesn't think there is a problem with the respondents telling the truth.
OK, I'll be cooperative and buy that.
But here's my point today: Changes made in 1994 could cause the unemployment rate to actually decline if the economy gets so bad and jobs become so scarce that people become too discouraged to even look for work.
Under the changes made in 1994, a person is considered discouraged if he says he hasn't looked for work in the last four weeks.
If it's been a month since he's looked for a job, the unemployed person falls out of the U-3 category -- and the headlines -- and into something called U-6.
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1. JET'S HORRIFYING FINAL 14 MINUTES
2. TIPSY ASHLEE SIMPSON JEERS HUBBY'S...
3. OBAMA BUTTERS THEM UP IN CAIRO
4. KATE HUDSON AN A-ROD DEVOTEE
5. TWEET DISCREET
6. 'KUNG FU' STAR DAVID CARRADINE...
7. EMT ARRESTED AFTER POSTING PHOTO OF...
1. OBAMA KEEPS HIS BIG APPLE PLEDGE
2. LEFT EXPLOITS DOC'S SLAY TO SILENCE FOES LIKE ME
3. OBAMA BUTTERS THEM UP IN CAIRO
4. OBAMA ARRIVES IN SAUDI ARABIA FOR MIDEAST TOUR
5. SLAIN OFFICER'S TRAGIC MISTAKE
6. J.J. PUTZ'S MELTDOWN DOOMS METS
7. OBAMA CALLS FOR NEW BEGINNING
1. PRYING EYES ON THE WEB
2. AIG CHARITY GRAB
3. SPACE RACE ON FIFTH AVENUE
4. TV GUIDE PREZ REPLACED IN WEEKEND SHAKEUP
5. BONDS FALLING RAPIDLY WITH NO END IN SIGHT
1. CELEBRITY PHOTOS: JUNE 04, 2009
2. AIR FRANCE FLIGHT 447 SEARCH & RESCUE
3. 16 COUPLES WE'RE JUST NOT THAT INTO
4. CELEBRITY PHOTOS: JUNE 03, 2009
5. OBAMA MEETS SAUDI KING
6. "DJ HERO" LAUNCH PARTY
7. MEGAN FOX
1. Teen Movies
2. Sexy Divas
3. Sexy TV
4. 24
5. '80s Back To School Movies
6. There's Something About Mary
7. Napoleon Dynamite
Real Estate Blog
The U-6 unemployment rate is already 15.8 percent, up from 8.9 percent in April 2008. So lots of people are being demoted into this category, which also includes people who say they want full-time work but can only find part-time employment.
Since the US has lost jobs in every month since Dec., 2007, it's easy for people to just give up and fall out of the U-3 category. If they totally give up, the would-be workers could even fall out of the U-6 survey and into statistical oblivion.
*
Finally, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has done something brilliant. I take that back, this goes beyond brilliant.
As part of his recent groveling mission to China, Geithner announced that he was adding a guy named David Dollar to his "financial leadership team for China."
No kiddin', that's the guy's real name.
I don't who Mr. Dollar is, or a thing about his background.
But from now on Geithner can -- with a straight face -- tell the Chinese what they want to hear. The Obama administration, despite the fact that it is printing currency to paper over deficits, believes in a strong Dollar.
Mr. Dollar that is -- and the administration hopes this gentleman spends as much time at the gym as possible getting fit.
Reuters reported this week that Chinese students laughed loudly when Geithner addressed a group at Peking University this week and said that "Chinese assets are very safe" in the US.
And a former Chinese government official warned that his country has plenty of places to invest besides America if Washington doesn't protect its currency. Perhaps they haven't heard yet about our strong (Mr.) Dollar policy.
*
Our financial markets are extremely risky and strange things are going on.
The price of long-maturity government bonds collapsed again earlier this week, as did the value of the dollar.
But the stock market keeps doing just fine. Some heroic investors -- the government? -- keep rescuing stocks whenever the Standard & Poor's 500 index dips near the crucial 875 point level.
And last Friday someone -- perhaps JPMorgan Chase, a recipient of government funds -- bought a whole lot of stock futures con tracts in the last 30 minutes of trading to cause a nice rally.
Was that just some end-of-the-month ma nipulation or did Wash ington want stock prices to be jubilant in front of Monday's tricky General Motors bankruptcy?
I'll boil it down. Be careful, someone is goofing around with stocks and we don't know why.
If Friday's employment report shows too much economic strength, the bond market could get whacked and interest rates will rise some more. Stocks? Ask whoever has their thumb on the button.
john.crudele@nypost.com
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NO, A WHOLE BUNCH OF FOLKS DIDN'T JUST GET JOBS
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By JOHN CRUDELE \
Last updated: 1:52 am
June 4, 2009
Posted: 1:27 am
June 4, 2009
More business/p. 51
THE unemployment rate may start moving lower -- because the job situation is getting so bad.
Now that I got your attention with that obviously contradictory and puzzling sentence, let me explain.
The nation's unemployment rate is currently 8.9 percent and the experts on Wall Street are predicting it might rise to 9.2 percent when the May report comes out tomorrow.
They also think the number of job losses last month could be about 550,000, which would be slightly worse than the 539,000 jobs lost in April.
I don't think there will be any major surprises on either of those numbers.
May is one of those months when the Labor Department adds a boatload of probably non-existence jobs to its count because it wishfully believes new companies are being formed just because it's springtime.
The recession? It doesn't matter to the computers that add these phantom jobs.
This is known as the birth/death model. And that optimistic estimate should keep the number of lost jobs in check with expectations.
But the unemployment rate -- the 8.9 percent figure last month that experts are predicting will eventually rise over 10 percent -- is a bit more complicated and perplexing. The government calculates the unemployment rate in several ways.
The so-called U-3 figure is the one that makes the newspaper headlines, although there are six different ways that the Labor Department calculates the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the population.
These figures begin with phone calls to just 60,000 of the nation's 105 million households. The US Census Bureau asks the people who answer the phone their employment status.
The results are then scientifically extrapolated for the entire population, seasonally adjusted, nipped and tucked and, voila, delivered to you the first Friday of every month.
The Labor Department swears that the size of the sample is plenty large. And it doesn't think there is a problem with the respondents telling the truth.
OK, I'll be cooperative and buy that.
But here's my point today: Changes made in 1994 could cause the unemployment rate to actually decline if the economy gets so bad and jobs become so scarce that people become too discouraged to even look for work.
Under the changes made in 1994, a person is considered discouraged if he says he hasn't looked for work in the last four weeks.
If it's been a month since he's looked for a job, the unemployed person falls out of the U-3 category -- and the headlines -- and into something called U-6.
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http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/coming-a-3rd-wave-of-foreclosures.aspx
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/coming-a-3rd-wave-of-foreclosures.aspx
Notice that alpine posts the really bad news too... and then say "see, things are bad".
I think he's so tired of being proven stupidly wrong, he's trying to argue both sides now so he's at least right once a day.