How to be wrong

Yes JuiceMan: stevejhx, about 14 months ago.

And so I was: 14 months ago.

I never said I predicted that massacre that occurred after Lehman - I predicted (incorrectly) that the government wouldn't let Lehman go bankrupt, because that is what history, and economic theory, teach. Little did I realize that the Bush Administration was as incompetent as it was!

Unlike you, I admit when I get things wrong. Property I got right; Lehman I got wrong, though I did predict they would go under, I didn't anticipate a bankruptcy, and if you look at my posts on or around September 15 of last year, you will see exactly that.

Rather than ascribing to me things I didn't say, it's time to fess up, JuiceMan - real estate in Manhattan is crashing.

I guess the only problem I have with the RE crash predicters of yore is that, just like Stevejhx, I don't think anyone of them could have predicted the catastrophic decision to let Lehman fail.

I think that there is a strong case to argue that, had they been rescued, then the magnitude of the collapse of the nyc RE market, or indeed the paralysis, would not be as great as it is now.

And stevejhx takes juiceman's bait....again.

It's like Lucy pulling that football away from Charlie Brown.

kyle, there was no bait - when will JuiceMan admit that he got real estate wrong? I admit what I got wrong (though he accuses me of not) - when will he step up to the plate instead of parroting that real estate has only fallen 2.3% in Manhattan?

divvie, the crash would still have happened, but it would have been longer and more drawn out. The difference between rental prices and purchase prices was just too great to be sustained.

Steve - let it go dude. He's baiting you and you hit every time. You gotta figure this out eventually.

but they enjoy it so.

Dudes, I stand by everything I said, right or wrong. Juicy-Juice, on the other hand....

"I think that there is a strong case to argue that, had they been rescued, then the magnitude of the collapse of the nyc RE market, or indeed the paralysis, would not be as great as it is now."

divvie, agreed. This has been my point all along. How can steve be so wrong about everything and continue to pound his chest in victory? I normally wouldn’t care but he starts every post with, “I have been saying this all along” or “see I was right”

"when will he step up to the plate instead of parroting that real estate has only fallen 2.3% in Manhattan?"

I didn't come up with the 2.3% steve, Miller-Samuels did. If you want to complain about it call them. I can’t help it if your numbers can’t be proved.

Oh, Juice, you used to be so much better than LICC in your remarks! You're really selective in your 2.3% - not the latest data from Miller-Samuel, which says 30% down from peak, as did even Your Gal Dolly.

"The location of each neighborhood/region (sphere) above and below the 0% line is how much above and below the overall Manhattan market that location performed between the two periods. For example, Midtown East/Turtle Bay fell 19.3% but because Manhattan’s overall price-per-square-foot fell 2.3%, the neighborhood fell behind the overall market by 17%."

2.3% YOY, that's what the data says. I'm sorry that you don't like it steve, maybe you should call Miller-Samuel and complain that their data doesn't fit with your malarkey?