northside piers / williamsburg

I get the feeling you haven't searched.

I have, but i dont see any stories except about some price cuts. Toll Brothers seems to be in ok financial shape.

You have not searched on THESE BOARDS. Look to the right of the message, and search. There are 12 discussions on this building.

ahhhhh...got it

marco, Toll Bros has been losing huge money every quarter and their stock has been pummeled.

There are multiple threads here, and you should also check Curbed.

tol has 2 billion of equity on the balance sheet and the cds trades at pretty tight levels ( 125 bps) so they arent in any immediate danger.

I don't know about "immediate danger," but whenever I read about Toll it sounds like this:

"Second-quarter net loss was $83.2 million, or 52 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $93.7 million, or 59 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter."

They've been losing 8-figures a quarter for some time now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE55228T20090603?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

seems like alot, but thats par for the course with the homebuilders. they can go on like that for a couple years

It's been every quarter over a year already, not sure how far it goes back. Also, the 8-figure losses aren't far from 9-figures.

Im all for them going bust and me getting an apartment on the cheap, but thier debt trades pretty strong so I can't begrudge them that

I have no idea of the likelihood of them going bust, though if I had an eye on one of their properties I'd certainly be waiting for distress to further influence pricing (but I suppose I'd say the same thing for the whole market). Price aside, I'd be very wary of cut corners. At NSP, for example, they built tower 1 with union labor at an optimistic time. When they built 2 they went non-union knowing full well there was insufficient demand. That can't be a good thing for tower 2's construction quality.

i live in the building. it's a nice community. my neighbors seem genuinely happy (and nice). and toll's been fairly easy to work with.

maybe i'm an optimist but i'm not worried about their ability to weather this storm.

Hmmm..the non union labor could be an issue. Ill definitely be checking it out thoroughly

We've been following the towers very closely. We have been working with their agents who we have found very helpful and pleasant. In Tower 1 we have been told they are over 70% sold. Prices are fairly comparable to others in the area if you keep in mind the floor level. However the monthly is pretty high compared to Tower 2. Tower 2 had been priced with the downturn in mind and if you compare low level apartments without a view to say, NV (101 N fifth) the prices are comparable. The higher floor apartments with views are pricier but seem better priced than the Edge. Monthly common charges are low in Tower 2 considering doorman, live-in maintenance, free bike storage, pool, etc (Again compare to NV). We are told they are 20% under contract. However reaching the 50-70% mark seems a daunting goal at this time. In terms of quality....I'll let other people debate. Tower One seemed pretty solid though.
Toll Brothers is one of the more strongly positioned of the publicly traded housing companies, though as noted still hurting. However because they are publicly traded they are more of a known entity than some of the smaller privately held developers in Williamsburg. To me that's a plus.

Sorry, but I wrote incorrectly: Tower 2 is only 10% under contract!

There is a penthouse unit (ph3) that has been sitting there for quite a while and the price has been chopped quite a bit. is there anything particularly wrong with this unit?

Isn't Williamsburg considered one of the fringe neighbors by the Manhattan Streeteasy mongers (W67thstreet, Aboutready, NYCxxx, steveJnx, etc. etc.)? Stick with Manhattan my friend or prepared to get stoned.

"Isn't Williamsburg considered one of the fringe neighbors by the Manhattan Streeteasy mongers (W67thstreet, Aboutready, NYCxxx, steveJnx, etc. etc.)? Stick with Manhattan my friend or prepared to get stoned."

I agree. If you're scared of people on the internet, you should definitely not buy an apartment, vote, engage in nude or semi-nude contact with other creatures (living or dead), or drink any water whatsoever. It's much safer that way.

Yes infamous, you should scour the boards and take advice from posters who don't know you rather than live in a community that suits your needs.

wbforeva,

I don't know specifics about PH3 but I think the price point is the major problem even with a price cut. The Williamsburg market at this time isn't attracting many buyers at that price. I'm finding 1BR's <500K in 50%+ sold buildings sell relatively fast. >500K they look like they are sitting.

My last sentence should read:

I'm finding 1BR's <500K in buildings 50%+ sold are selling relatively quickly... >500K they look like they are sitting.

Let me try one more time:

I'm finding that 1BR's less than 500K in buildings fifty percent or more sold are selling quickly. Anything greater than 500K seems to be sitting.

I looked at a PH in Northside Piers and it was so windy up there, you couldn't open the door to go out on the terrace.

"I agree. If you're scared of people on the internet, you should definitely not buy an apartment, vote, engage in nude or semi-nude contact with other creatures (living or dead), or drink any water whatsoever. It's much safer that way."

Of course, just because its on the internet doesn't mean its not true.

Michael Jackson did die, the congressman did sleep with "that woman", and there was in fact a housing bubble.
;-)

You know that wasn't my point.

what is the percent sold for the second tower?

I'm wondering the same thing. Also, when are the first units scheduled to close?

Last I heard was 10% and that was back in June '09.

in november the edge office told me nsp2 could decide to go rental up until 15% sold...and they seemed to think that was a possibility...but who knows

jim, is that closed sold? or in contract?

I dont know. It must be some condo offering rule, I suppose. Presumably it relates to in contract. They seemed to say that up to 15% they can cancel the condo sales and refund deposits, etc. The Edge is not privy to sales numbers at nsp2 I assume, so don't know how realistic the possibility is.

jim, i leave you with this. in the last year, SE lists about 540 closed sales for WB. what do you think the absorption rate is?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closings/williamsburg-brooklyn/dated%3C365

Good point. Hmm...so ten a week. Wow. That ain't much. The Edge has 70% unsold or something like 400, plus something similar I suppose at nsp, plus 60 at 80 met, etc....not to mention here and there other ones sitting around.

I have leaned toward the view that finance providers won't wait forever, especially once buildings are ready to occupy, which nsp2 and edge will be in a few months, while 184 kent rolls in renting hundreds of units with similar location and maybe a cooler building ( i dont know).

2012

because wmburg is a kind of discreet definable hood, that stat about closings is worth monitoring per month...to see how things unfold...

jim, you're right. i'm manhattan-centric in my thoughts. WB still, i'd think, 2011 for reasonable certainty of most of the downside (depending on how things are moving along).

I'm in contract at NSP2. I'll be pissed if I can't get a loan because they are only 15% sold by closing.

you'll thank them later if that happens like you'll agree with my statement later this year

what statement will you make?

Hi Silver. I believe NS1 is between 85 and 90% occupied and NS2 is around 30% sold.

A comment I posted in the NSP2 forum too: I would love to hear comments from a real occupant too. I am pretty close to purchasing at NSP2 but they want me to sign contract in a few days. I feel it is rushing things a bit, especially since they are adding all sorts of clauses in their contract book such as not defining a proper closing date ( anytime thru may-july).
Plus, they are offering varying incentives such as a 10% reduction possibly. Anyone bargained beyond these margins for tower 2?

I hear there's no cell phone service.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/brooklyn-foreclosures-not-just-in-east-new-york

I was making phone calls and texting as was my real estate agent. I have sprint... I think the service was fine from what I remember...

Does anyone know whether NSP2 is FHA approved or close to getting there?

there's definitely cell service in nsp 1. good friend lives there and talk frequently.

did you read on Curbed that Matt Damon has moved into a penthouse in the new tower?

does anybody know if they're still giving 10% off for tower 2??

"did you read on Curbed that Matt Damon has moved into a penthouse in the new tower?"

Yeah, they published that on April Fool's Day. It ain't true.

Walked into the Northside Piers office today and apparently they're not giving 10% of the list price anymore for Tower 2. The sales office was crowded and word is that the units are selling well.

shill   /ʃɪl/ Show Spelled [shil] Show IPA Slang.
–noun
1.a person who poses as a customer in order to decoy others into participating, as at a gambling house, auction, confidence game, etc.

Marco,

Instead of blogging all day, why don't you leave your little apartment and actually learn the market. Go out, speak to people, talk to some brokers. See what's really going on. You're stuck in the matrix, man. I see your name all over the blogs. How do you have so much time on your hands?

ah yes..brokers..the golden source of quality RE information.

Here's some more broker-generated information I got via email. Apparently 7 remaining units at NS1:

# BR/BA SF View List Price SPECIAL LIMITED TIME PRICE*
6D 2bd/2ba 1131 Southwest $789,990 $694,990
7D 2bd/2ba 1131 Southwest $794,990 SOLD
7E 2bd/2ba 1152 Southeast $771,990 $642,990
8E 2bd/2ba 1152 Southeast $776,990 SOLD
4G 2bd/2ba 1244 Northeast $859,990 $714,990
7G 2bd/2ba 1244 Northeast $874,990 $745,990
19C 1bd/1ba 737 West $599,990 SOLD
24C 1bd/1ba 737 West $624,990 $564,990
25C 1bd/1ba 737 West $629,990 $569,990
P9 2/2.5 1250 Northwest $949,990 SOLD
P10 2/2.5 - 212 sf Balcony 1271 Northeast $1,064,990 $969,990
P15 2/2.5 - 314 sf Balcony 1271 Northeast $1,084,990 SOLD

Does anybody have any update on these closeout prices? Have most of the units been sold?

Was just checking out the pics on the NSP website and noticed there isn't much in the way of cabinets in the NSP1 kitchens. Those shelves don't look too deep. Anybody been there or any owner care to comment?

It seems that there have been two resales, down 23% and down 22% from pre-crash sponsor sales. So is the bsse case in this building that anyone who bought before the price cuts lost something in the 30% range (i.e., full equity wipe out for many) including transaction costs? If so, this looks quite a bit worse than similar vintage Manhattan new construction where comps (admittedly few in number) seem to be scattered either side of breakeven before transaction costs and maybe down a few percent after costs.

#15D
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/471921-condo-4-north-5th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn
06/25/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $1,102,245.
02/24/2010 Sale recorded for $850,000.

#15A
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/418392-condo-4-north-5th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn
06/19/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $484,681.
07/29/2010 Sale recorded for $380,000.

sideline, great post. Those initial sales prices were probably locked into contracts signed pre-construction. Those deals are obviously not looking good right now. I had quite a bit of interest in 15A (was a short sale), but it went to contract before I really had a chance to see it. At the price sold, cheaper to own than rent (monthly payments under 2k, which is below average rent for a similar apartment in the neighborhood). Could be a decent investment for the buyer if he/she is looking at that route.

Those resales don't even look that great next to some recent sponsor sales at NSP1 or NSP2. For example, NSP1 7E, a 2br with a balcony sold for less that 570 psf recently.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/181180-condo-4-north-5th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn

Also compare 15A (tiny 1 bed/alcove studio) to some of the mid-floor J line alcove studios in NSP2 and apply the 10% discount and some closing costs that everyone seems to be getting and you get a much better price. Also, J line has a Manhattan view (non-disapearing on high enough floors), which 15A doesn't.

I thought 15A was particularly challenged by its layout. The kitchen is along one wall of the living room and the room is just not large enough for it. It's hard for me to imagine how one lays furniture in that room.
That said, agreed that it looks like equity wipe-out for the original owners--and in the short sale case some loss for the bank as well.

Contract Dates can be found on Acris deed recording pages. It's either on the last or second to last page of the deed docs.

Last month we finally have the closing of an apt in the D line. So far we are very happy with the studio, especially the views, the neighborhood and the building management. I am writing to thank you all of you for your comments, suggestions and opinions. This page has been a really valuable source of information.
In case you are still searching I would also like to strongly recommend you to my broker Cory Kantin (http://www.elliman.com/real-estate-agent/cory-kantin/1556) and my attorney Kevin Farrelly. They did a really wonderful job.

Has anyone looked at the Y lines at all? I am interested to get a one-BR but the developer seems very sticky on price - they tell me that they are 50% sold. Any insights there regarding how much is negotiable from ask will be very helpful. Thanks!

I haven't made an offer at NSP, but based on previous experience with new developments, once the developer reaches 50%, they are less negotiable on price. You may get 2-3% off price, and 2-3% in concessions. Once the developer reaches the other extreme, like say, 90%, they seem to be a little bit more flexible on price because usually what is left is the harder to sell units.

Thanks Joseesq -- I am buying this as an investment, but some of the units have amazing views and I am tempted to move into one of the units myself (if I decide to buy)!

We just bought a place at 2NS. Only concern is the public schools. Thoughts???