Robert Shiller's Claim that Prices DId not start Increasing Until 1997 is NOT True
Started by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
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As most of you know, Shiller recently wrote a pieve in the NY Times where he wrote that, after the last slump ended, prices did not start going up until 1997. I know some here, including 30yrs, have questioned this claim. Well, after some research, it apepars that this claim is not true for NYC: Co-op Market Drift Continues In Manhattan By NICK RAVO Published: Sunday, February 13, 1994 "Even... [more]
As most of you know, Shiller recently wrote a pieve in the NY Times where he wrote that, after the last slump ended, prices did not start going up until 1997. I know some here, including 30yrs, have questioned this claim. Well, after some research, it apepars that this claim is not true for NYC:
Co-op Market Drift Continues In Manhattan
By NICK RAVO
Published: Sunday, February 13, 1994
"Even though the New York City co-op values have yet to reach their 1989 high point of $84,473 per room, the 1993 increase of 2.4 percent is an encouraging sign," said Sheldon Gartenstein, vice president and loan officer at the National Cooperative Bank. "The increase follows two years of steady and significant declines, representing a stabilization of co-op values in the overall market."
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/13/realestate/co-op-market-drift-continues-in-manhattan.html?pagewanted=3[less]
Response by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
New York Housing: Sellers Finally Sell
By NICK RAVO
Published: Sunday, February 26, 1995
OWNERS of residential real estate in New York City, particularly those with co-ops, may look back on 1994 as the year when it once again became possible to sell their homes -- even studios and one-bedroom apartments. It still wasn't easy, and the big profits of the 1980's remained only a memory, but the increased demand and stable prices were a substantial improvement over the early 1990's, when market activity slowed drastically and prices fell.
Residential Real Estate Market Rebounds in New York Region
By NICK RAVO
Published: Sunday, January 23, 1994
After five years of slumping sales and plummeting prices, the residential real estate market in the New York region is starting to rebound, according to housing analysts.
So it is evdident to me that NYC prices started increasing again in 94/95, not 97 as Shiller claimed. (althoguh the appreciation during this time was very moderate).
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9913
Member since: Mar 2009
I still think it's not correct. There were certainly market segments (the one's hardest hit and all but impossible to sell in 1992) that probably doubled between 92 and 94.
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Response by alanhart
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
But this isn't data -- it's straight from the RE industry's PR flacks to the NYT's RE advertorial section. So BFD ... NYC RE didn't start appreciating again until 1997. And that's a fact, Jack.
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Response by jason10006
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
What happened to the COOP market in MANHATTAN is not the same as what happened to the OVERALL real estate market in Manhattan or NYC, which is what Schiller was referring to, dummy.
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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Shiller only covers single-family homes.
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Response by jason10006
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
No, the widely reported CS index only covers single family homes. The second index includes condo prices only. The person, Robert Schiller, was speaking about all home prices, based in part his own data, but on other sources. The person and the index are not the same thing.
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
was anyone else here looking in that time period? huge gains in prices in Manhattan in the 1997ish and on range. i closed early 1996, if i hadn't i definitely would have been priced out for years. i got a great deal, but i looked at tons of apartments that were just out of our price range due to down payment issues, not mortgage amounts.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> which is what Schiller was referring to, dummy.
Why do we bother replying to this idiot?
This is the same ass who denied that Manhattan declined!
New York Housing: Sellers Finally Sell
By NICK RAVO
Published: Sunday, February 26, 1995
OWNERS of residential real estate in New York City, particularly those with co-ops, may look back on 1994 as the year when it once again became possible to sell their homes -- even studios and one-bedroom apartments. It still wasn't easy, and the big profits of the 1980's remained only a memory, but the increased demand and stable prices were a substantial improvement over the early 1990's, when market activity slowed drastically and prices fell.
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/02/26/realestate/new-york-housing-sellers-finally-sell.html
Residential Real Estate Market Rebounds in New York Region
By NICK RAVO
Published: Sunday, January 23, 1994
After five years of slumping sales and plummeting prices, the residential real estate market in the New York region is starting to rebound, according to housing analysts.
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/01/23/us/residential-real-estate-market-rebounds-in-new-york-region.html
So it is evdident to me that NYC prices started increasing again in 94/95, not 97 as Shiller claimed. (althoguh the appreciation during this time was very moderate).
I still think it's not correct. There were certainly market segments (the one's hardest hit and all but impossible to sell in 1992) that probably doubled between 92 and 94.
But this isn't data -- it's straight from the RE industry's PR flacks to the NYT's RE advertorial section. So BFD ... NYC RE didn't start appreciating again until 1997. And that's a fact, Jack.
What happened to the COOP market in MANHATTAN is not the same as what happened to the OVERALL real estate market in Manhattan or NYC, which is what Schiller was referring to, dummy.
Shiller only covers single-family homes.
No, the widely reported CS index only covers single family homes. The second index includes condo prices only. The person, Robert Schiller, was speaking about all home prices, based in part his own data, but on other sources. The person and the index are not the same thing.
was anyone else here looking in that time period? huge gains in prices in Manhattan in the 1997ish and on range. i closed early 1996, if i hadn't i definitely would have been priced out for years. i got a great deal, but i looked at tons of apartments that were just out of our price range due to down payment issues, not mortgage amounts.
> which is what Schiller was referring to, dummy.
Why do we bother replying to this idiot?
This is the same ass who denied that Manhattan declined!