Deutsche Study Source Data

is ericho75 whispering in your ear? while inserting his tongue? in and out.. and round in a circle?

how about counterclockwise?

so the report relies in NAR? HA HA. That's so funny. I would imagine that a big bank like Deutsche would have their own internal data and would not rely on NAR.

now to the other side?

but I know what the bears are going to say now:

"Pike County has a lot in common with Manhattan. Both are in the U.S. Both are in the northeast. Balh blah blah..."

hey... alpine292.. you're ruining my thread..... get over to the "short sale" thread.... I think JM and Ericho are getting it ON!

w67th, understand you can't refute my claims so you have to do something else to distract / entertain yourself, but c'mon Mr. I-bank, this data is a complete pile of crap! Don't let me down w67th, I know you can do it.

Wow, Juiceman gets asked a direct question on the thread - by 4 people an counting - and refuses to answer it.... yet keeps insulting.

Thats bad enough.

Then he starts an entire NEW THREAD where he talks about the thread he avoided the question on.

WOW. Now THAT is deflection.

Seriously, dude, are you ever going to answer the question?

> w67th, understand you can't refute my claims so you have to do something else to distract

Wow, talk about pot calling the kettle black!

"Seriously, dude, are you ever going to answer the question?"

Yes, answered it twice in the other thread. I'm not sure why you keep asking me to answer it. Read the thread.

Where am I insulting nyc10022? Do you even know what that means?

Why don't you try answering the other question I asked you? Do you think this data is any good? Tell me about medians and single family houses in Pike County please? Are you using this data to track movement on the UES? Tell us how?

So JM, answer me this. Are you recommending purchasing now?

"Are you recommending purchasing now?"

That's a silly question AR. You of all people know it depends on the situation. I have never made a blanket recommendation to buy or not to buy. I HAVE recommended that people get their facts straight, which seems to go against the grain of this board.

Juiceman finally answered the question!?!?!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12123-oh-my-deutsche-expects-another-40-decline-in-the-new-york-msa

The answer was pretty much "I have no argument".

As for your questions, Juice, as I said already before, I don't know anything about Pike County... so that obviously answers the question on whether I'm using it to track movement on the UES.

Now, back to laughing about you finally answering the question.

When the best bull counter argument to the bear aregument is "you are right".....

Does that mean we have capitulation?

JM.... I'm just having a bit of fun... i am getting so tired of "green" shootz... call me "over it." But as anyone will tell you, you take all data points, your own experiences and education and make a gut call based on that and how many cats are scratching the piggy eyes out in the next 6 hours and plunge IN!

Just like when I walked from GM... I'ze see nothing to write home about... and where is ericho75 w/ commodities/DJIA and LIC RE? Funny the mkt dives 300... and he's just needz to make man love to JM to feel better :)

Come on JM have a sense of humor.....

nyc10022 seems to have had a revelation of some sort and still deflects / avoids the question.

Is Juiceman really still talking about *others* deflecting the question.

ROFTL.

Funny, funny guy.

I guess you have to be to show your face after being the guy who denied the biggest RE crash in history.

JM, this is your moment, so i won't wade in with any silly analytical thoughts. But, we've been down this road many a time, and for a long, long time.

One of the problems with your call for "facts" is that they are so frickin' hard to get. Doesn't mean that they don't exist, people aren't doing a very good job at compiling and parsing the data. I hate to go all personal experience on people, and i was only looking at a specific portion of the market (although the steadiest one, probably, the moderately spacious 2/2), but there isn't a ton that gives better guidance. If you have it, please share.

I wonder why none of the bears have commented on the NAR data that was the foundation for this study? Where did everyone go? Why aren't they bearish anymore?

I wonder what nyc10022 will thinks about the use of medians, single family houses, and Pike County as a foundation for Manhattan comparisons? Where is steve?

Amazed you haven't picked this up, but they're all making fun of you on the other copy of the thread you started.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12123-oh-my-deutsche-expects-another-40-decline-in-the-new-york-msa

Amazing that none of the bears have commented on the source data for this wonderful report that they loved so much. Even the president of the bear club for men nyc10022 said the report was lousy.

JM: From the link you provided: "Beginning on February 25, 2005, these figures include condos and co-ops, in addition to single-family homes."

Its obviously not the be-all and end-all and is to be taken for what it is, but why do you misrepresent what it is?

Juicy, I'm right here. Working on a lawsuit. But I did see you posted:

"Median data?"

So now you agree with me that median data is limited in value?!

Good.

I've also seen how you blame "Lehman" on the property crash, yet (incorrectly) claim constantly that I lost all my investments (after "Lehman").

You need to be consistent, Juice. If you don't think the MSA data are applicable to Manhattan - SHOW us why. Not just presumptions, assumptions, guesswork and laughter. Case-Shiller only includes single-family homes. Ergo, not applicable to Manhattan. WHERE IS YOUR SOURCE?

That is, how do you know that property in Manhattan will not fall as much as or more than it did in Pike County, PA?

Why are we even throwing around this Pike County canard? Pike County has a population of 68,000. What impact do you think home sales there had in an MSA with a population of over 21,000,000? I'll answer that -- none. Its a diversion.

"One of the problems with your call for "facts" is that they are so frickin' hard to get. Doesn't mean that they don't exist, people aren't doing a very good job at compiling and parsing the data."

aboutready, I totally agree with this. It IS hard to get good data, though it does happen. I don't think it's unreasonable to question data brought up here, even if it just serves to get a clearer picture of what to avoid. Doing so should not be construed as a personal attack, though some seem to take it that way, probably due to an underlying agenda. JuiceMan's post re: advising to buy is far more credible because he doesn't affect a know-it-all attitude and provide a blanket recommendation. Anyone advising either extreme loses a lot of credibility in my book, whether it's petrfitz' deriding all renters or nyc10022's advice to always rent. That's shallow stuff.

"If you don't think the MSA data are applicable to Manhattan - SHOW us why."

Steve, I think the burden of proof is on you, actually. If you think there's a correlation, THAT should be proven, not that there isn't one.

I didn't start this post, bjw. However, if the MSA data include Manhattan then obviously there will be a correlation with Manhattan. Realtors generally agree that Manhattan prices are down 30% from the peak. How that correlates to Pike County, PA, I have no idea.

Steve, it's true, you didn't start the post, but I still think if anyone believes the MSA data is really applicable to Manhattan, it's that person's job to demonstrate a significant correlation. Yes, Manhattan is one of the 23 counties in the MSA, but I think that's far too large an area to make any such calls.

Any conclusion drawn like that, bjw, would suffer the incurable logical error of interpolation.

The immortal words of JuiceMan: "Median data? Single family homes in the following in Pike County? This is a wicked good study folks! Bring on the masters thesis!"

If the data include only single-family homes then obviously Manhattan is not material. That some of the data be drawn from Pike County cannot lead to any conclusion on its applicability to New York County.

JuiceMan said it - now he should back up his claim.

The data does not include only single family homes, but co-ops and condos since 2005. It says so on the link Juiceman himself provided. Any other straw man arguments?

"Its obviously not the be-all and end-all and is to be taken for what it is, but why do you misrepresent what it is?"

No misrepresentation intended, I missed it. You are correct.

"JuiceMan said it - now he should back up his claim."

What would you like me to back up? It's not my study. How about agreeing that a sensationalized article with a "NYC to decrease 40%" headline based on this data is disingenuous at best.

If Ericho or alpine posted some study from the NAR that showed single family homes in Staten Island and Pike county were up, so therefore NYC RE was up, people would go crazy here (and rightfully so).

So how is using this study to show that NYC will decline 40% more any different?