Inflation to remain "subdued" - The fed

argument?

Well, if the fed says that inflation will remain subdued, they must be correct. After all, they did say that subprime was contained, and they could not have been more correct, right?

this is true..they most definitely could be wrong

This writer in the Times seems to agree that inflation will be kept under control:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/business/economy/21view.html

"First, the clear and present danger, both now and for the next year or two, is not inflation but deflation. Using the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index as the measure, inflation has now been negative for three consecutive months.

It’s true that falling oil prices, now behind us, were the main reason for the deflation. Core C.P.I. inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, has been solidly in the range of 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent for six consecutive months. But history teaches us that weak economies drag down inflation — and ours will be weak for some time. Core inflation near zero, or even negative, is a live possibility for 2010 or 2011."

What would you expect to happen to mortgage rates the next 2-3 months?

Housing is a huge chunk of the CPI and its still declining. Thats not how you get inflation.

food and energy are not part of the CPI, and that is where the inflation will start off. So if your only monitoring the CPI, there is never going to be inflation.

Alpine doesn't understand economics, yet he's predicting inflation.

At least he's consistent... he lives in New Jersey, and tries to talk about New York City real estate.

Remember, this is the guy who said...
"Prices are not down 20%. Find me just one example."

Next, alpine is going to teach us about cooking.

I'm stil waiting for an explanation of your stupid comment about NY being a bad state to send your kids to school in.

Im hoping for rates to go up. Up enough to crush RE prices, but not out of control up which means the chinese have decided they dont need us anymore.

rates are not going go up anytime soon. And if they do go up, it will be because the Chinese dumped our bonds, at which point there will likely be a war between China and the U.S.

>> Im hoping for rates to go up. Up enough to crush RE prices, but not out of control up which means the chinese have decided they dont need us anymore.

At that point the chinese will buy our real estate instead of our bonds.

"I'm stil waiting for an explanation of your stupid comment about NY being a bad state to send your kids to school in."

Yes, only because you couldn't understand the big words in the article about how NYS has the 3rd lowest graduation rate in the country.

Wow, alpine, too easy!