Shadow sales?

BTW, from what I can see, ACRIS looks like it shows about 470 transactions for May (including commercial buildings, etc.)

is 470 low or high?

I think you may see them in a few months. It takes a while to close, especially coops.

I've been bewildered as well by the apparent disconnect between signed contracts and sales. All I can think is that it reflects what NYRENewbie has said - that it often takes a good two months between contract and close.

The sales numbers we are currently seeing do seem to dovetail with the contract level prevailing a couple of months ago.

That said, I've been pretty astounded by how apparently robust the market has been over the past month in terms of contract signings. That goes for the published stats as well as places that I've been following myself.

Topper, I've been shocked as well. Looking at the data has made me modify my thinking about the future of the market somewhat. I really don't know what to make of it; I would have thought total devastation, but in reality things seem to be bumping along rather well.

Indeed, evncy.

There is huge pent up demand out there as witness recent contract signings.

Time will tell. We've probably seen some "buying the dip." But I'm still (pretty) confident that there are more dips to come. Regardless, unlike the stock market, residential real estate doesn't turn on a dime and it's probably well worth continuing a "wait-and-see" posture. It'll also be interesting to see whether activity withers with the start of the seasonally slow summer months.

I think it's also worth noting that the increased sales activity hasn't meant higher prices - just the contrary. As I understand it Miller Samuel has indicated prices seem to have dropped an additional 5% in the second quarter.

In the meantime, I just renewed my lease with a 14% drop for one year. Yea!