Inventory down 1000 units(appr 9%) in a month. That's mostly not seasonality.

So we're back down to April levels? Big deal. IF the trend is sustained and we drop below 9,000 again, I think it'll be worth discussing, but as of now, I don't see inventory clearing out at a particularly noteworthy pace.

steveF - you seriously need to become acquainted with something called REALITY...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/nyregion/02real.html?_r=1&hp

July 2, 2009
Sharp Price Drops in Manhattan Apartments
By JOSH BARBANEL

Manhattan apartment prices fell sharply during the second quarter of 2009, as the limited number of deals struck during the darkest months of the economic downturn began to close, according to a series of market reports released Wednesday.

The number of closings fell more than 50 percent, and prices in some categories were reported down as much as 25 percent, compared with the same quarter in 2008. Sale prices were also down from those reported in the first quarter of 2009.

One report, by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property, put the average price of a Manhattan apartment in the second quarter at $1.26 million, a decline of 24 percent from the same period in 2008, and 16 percent below the previous quarter. It put the median sale price at $795,000, 19 percent below the figure in the first quarter of 2008.

Another report, by Prudential Douglas Elliman, found that the median sale price on the resale of existing apartments was down by 25.6 percent from a year earlier. The report, prepared by Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm, said that the number of sales was down 50.3 percent compared with the same period in 2008.

The new figures on closed sales confirm the downward trajectory in the Manhattan market that brokers have been reporting for many months. But the report was issued at a time when brokers had begun to say that sales activity rebounded sharply in the last six weeks, though at prices well below the peak last year.

SteveF,
what do you mean we have a buyer-true up?
Are you suggesting that the market has bottomed and that, given the spring buying season was so healthy, all is right with the RE market?

yes so what is your point? I guess you trying to say the median price is down?...on a drop of over 50% in sales! That is so huge. Doesn't that tell you what happened? Buyers froze and have-to-sellers sold at artificially reduced prices b/c they couldn't wait. Not brain surgery folks. But buyers are NOW zapping inventory as we speak as confidence is restored. IMHO.

SteveF,
what do you mean we have a buyer-true up?

buyer activity returning to normal levels. But remember the pent up demand will cause a surge then buyer normalcy returns.

"But buyers are NOW zapping inventory as we speak as confidence is restored."

"buyer activity returning to normal levels. But remember the pent up demand will cause a surge then buyer normalcy returns."

Do you actually believe these statements? Are you in such denial that you refuse to come to grips with what's really happening? I feel somewhat sorry for you, steveF. Buyer activity returning to "normal levels" (whatever that is) doesn't mean prices won't keep going down. Sorry, dude.

steveF you have a great point worth discussing. Scratch below the surface of the broader market averages and you will see tremendous movement in certain price levels in certain areas.

Case in point from another thread this morning: UWS 2/2 coops 1M to 1.25M shows 28 for sale, 19 in contract and 52 sold. Overall Manhattan closings have increased an average of 35-40% month over month since the end of the first quarter. The 30 day average is 38 closings per day and we had 91 yesterday.

Here's what has happened to the inventory I've been following. Asking price reduced from 1.395m to 995k - then listing "temporarily off the market". This is still on the market in the sense that if I called the broker to show in a 995k offer, it would be accepted. My standard search has been UES 2br for 1.75m or less. The all time high was 781, now I get 771, a 1% drop.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/209968-coop-115-east-90th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

brodie - I won't argue your historical numbers because I have no way of validating, but this is what I see:

UES 2/2 coop 1.75 or less: 133 listings, 40 in contract, 100 sold.

Brodie, that apartment was a pipe-dream at $995k and a nightmare at $1.395 million. There are price declines all over the place, but many that I see like this are just ridiculous. That was NEVER going to sell at $1.395....EVER. It's a 5th floor apartment with 2BR and 1.5 BA in an okay location and in an okay building with somewhat high maintenance. Yes, this is a price decline, but too often these are coming from crazy starting points.

>Do you actually believe these statements? Are you in such denial that you refuse to come to grips with what's really happening? I feel somewhat sorry for you, steveF. Buyer activity returning to "normal levels" (whatever that is) doesn't mean prices won't keep going down. Sorry, dude<

Denial about what? Every credible source has indicated a strong acclelerating surge in buyer activity in the past few months. Inventory is dropping. Prices follow demand and supply, activity on both ends signals prices moving higher. What am I actually in denial about?

steveF, I'll give you that inventory has declined and there's activity out there. What I'd like to know is why it'll be sustained at the current level. I wouldn't be so sure that'll stick.

"Prices follow demand and supply, activity on both ends signals prices moving higher. What am I actually in denial about?"

Demand is not up. Please don't equate activity with demand. The only reason volume went up is b/c prices dropped. Any uptick in prices will immediately be met with a deluge of sellers desperate to "get out" of a bad purchase. You need a reality check, dude.

that is not true BS Exposer. Demand is UP, mainly due to the $8k tax credit and the sub 5% mortgage rates. Also, peopel are less fearful today than they were in the months following the Lehman collapse.

Hey BSer.. do you know of another way to gauge demand that I am not aware of?

You sound like Jazzman who has a fresh new take on supply and demand

bjw, good question. Well nothing is guaranteed. But how I see it, is that buyers are seriusly thinking about how the economy just survived a near depression. They are thinking "that was the worst we've experienced in 70 years(thx to the media)! "Now has to be as good a time as any to purchase!". Of course all this depends on global economic conditions continuing to improve. That's my bet. Has always been.

>Please don't equate activity with demand<

Now what does that mean? Demand is actvity.

Activity means a confluence of both supply and demand.

"Hey BSer.. do you know of another way to gauge demand that I am not aware of?"

OK, so if demand is up and supply is down, then prices are currently moving up, correct? Correct? I hear crickets. Thank you.

"They are thinking "that was the worst we've experienced in 70 years(thx to the media)! "Now has to be as good a time as any to purchase!"

Uh, wrong - they are thinking, "Wow - maybe I can use this temporary relief rally in the stock market to convince some idiot to buy my overpriced property!"

Activity means a confluence of both supply and demand

right demand is increasing and supply is decreasing....

God you people are friggin morons. Demand is "increasing" if the number of people in a market who are willing to buy at a particular price point is increasing. That is NOT HAPPENING. Of course more people will buy if (other things being equal) prices decrease - just as less people will buy if prices increase - DUH!!! Overall demand is NOT increasing, sorry.

You said "demand is not up" BSer. How can you possibly make that statement with any degree of sobriety?

BSexp..as quickly as the median dropped on 50% less volume it will recover and then some, just as quickly on 50% more volume. Until normalcy returns. Right now it's pent up demand adjusting for the prior 6 months freeze. This will drive the median up quickly and then a level off. But you cannot say "Prices are down/up" b/c real estate is so local, unlike the equity markets.

brodie/waveryly, curious on the listing you mentioned. It shows that an apt. in the same line previously sold for $1.45mm. To me $995 sounds pretty good (30% off peak). Also, brodie, why do you think your offer would be accepted? Did you call broker?

Here, let me explain it further for you fools: "When consumers increase the quantity demanded at a given price, it is referred to as an increase in demand." AT A GIVEN PRICE - get it??????

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand#Demand_curve_shifts

"as quickly as the median dropped on 50% less volume it will recover and then some, just as quickly on 50% more volume"

Ummm, no it won't, you are just wrong, sorry. Prices will not increase for a LONG TIME. Just accept it.

>Here, let me explain it further for you fools:<

Now here's a guy with class...get lost.

"Now here's a guy with class...get lost."

What exactly am I supposed to call people who don't understand a simple concept such as demand????? Somebody who thinks that if there is an increase in the number of sales following a 20% price decrease, that this means "demand went up"????? I mean, come on - you are utterly clueless, steveF.

OK BSer we're getting closer. Contract signings are up 35 - 40 % month over month since first quarter and inventory is DECREASING.

PLEEEESE tell us more Mr. BSer

Or perhaps the fool who doesn't get it should...

"Contract signings are up 35 - 40 % month over month since first quarter and inventory is DECREASING"

Please, prices will continue to fall, trust me. If inventory is decreasing, it is a marginal decrease caused by the fact that (A) the number of sales have increased DUE TO FALLING PRICES and (B) MANY PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN THEIR APTS OFF THE MARKET B/C THEY GAVE UP. Get real.

I luv the phrase prices are falling/increasing....
Falling/Increasing prices on what? studios?, 1 beds? 2 beds?, downtown?, uptown?, midtown?, doorman?, lux high rise? low rise?....etc.

Yeah, its called all of the above.

Not that hard to understand, even for you...

steveF - what's wrong with you? Seriously.

BSer - what's the difference between sales and people giving up? Same result, no? You seem to be so wrapped around your theories that when you see your demand threshold being met, you will have most certainly missed your opportunity.

nyc10022, how does it feel that your hopes and dreams of a manhattan price crash never happened. Can it be only 4 months ago you were so sure the economy would crash and Manhattan would follow! How can this be! "I was so close!". "Those damn buyers are screwing up everything!" "They are buying up everything, driving up prices and I will be left with nothing." "My greatest chance is gone!" I hate that SteveF b/c he was right so i will lash out at him and call him names...

All I can say is Sucks To Be You.....

UWSmynabe - you seriously need to get a clue - miss my opportunity???? To what - buy in a falling market??? Thanks for the advice, but I'll roll the dice that there won't be a V-shaped recovery in NYC RE prices. LMAO!!!

BSexposer, please read above the same applies to you. Enjoy.

its a bit early to say anybody missed out when prices are still falling
but then again i am saying this to some very silly people

steveF - you didn't answer my question. Seriously, what's wrong with you? Were you dropped on your head as a child? I honestly want to know what the problem is. Please share.

> nyc10022, how does it feel that your hopes and dreams of a manhattan price crash never happened.

Except it did. 20% and still falling!
I know you live on denial planet, but I am thoroughly enjoying this crash!

> Can it be only 4 months ago you were so sure the economy would crash
Yes, and I was absolutely correct. We have the biggest recession in decades, and its still going!

Thats makes two things I was absolutely right about, and you were absolutely wrong about!

> How can this be!

You're not smart, and I am. Thats how!

> "They are buying up everything, driving up prices

SteveF, back to kindergarden for you. Time for you to learn what UP means.

20% and dropping! Back to you Steve!

> I hate that SteveF b/c he was right so i will lash out at him and call him names...

SteveF, its been a year of posting, and I don't think you've even gotten tying your shoes right in that time!

You said the market would not crash, and it did. You said there would be a "stampede" a year ago, and instead you got the crash I predicted. Doesn't get much more wrong that that for you!

> All I can say is Sucks To Be You.....

Yes, it so sucks to be the guy who got paid to wait, and now gets to choose from all the 20-40% off sales...!

Yes, I'd SO rather be the guy who lost all his money in a year!

Sorry, SteveF, there are 50 people on this board thanking their lucky starts they aren't you.... the idiot who bought multiple properties at the top of a bubble!

NOBODY has it worse than you... except for the kids in the sally struthers video!

steveF lives in the 51st State - DENIAL

and, as we said Steve, had you listened to us earlier, you wouldn't have lost your 20% x whatever your leverage factor. What's that, 200%? 400%?

Nice job, Steve!

> steveF lives in the 51st State - DENIAL

Well, I do feel for the guy a bit. He leveraged himself into multiple condos at the absolute peak.

But, yes, he should have listened better..

"> How can this be!

You're not smart, and I am. Thats how!"

LOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOLLOL - somehow I think he won't even understand THAT concept, poor guy.

OK, I hate to be cruel and pile on, but I just have to re-post something steveF said about 9 months ago:

"Look at all the bears huddling and taking solace in their desperate frustrated dream worlds. btw kgg, my properties aren't on the market, why do i want to sell i'm a young guy with, God willing, plenty of time to build wealth see you at 50."

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5264-nyc-re-tanking-hard

And he really expects us to take advice from him?

Slow down BSer.... on a bit of a frothy rant today. Try and keep it together and ease up on the venom if you want to have a dialog. My guess is dialog is not your intention though.

glad you like that one.

BSexposer...once again your point being? I bet kgg already bought. haven't seen him around.

UWS - aw, lighten up, K? Just having some fun. Granted, it's at your and steveF's expense, but what's so wrong with that?

"BSexposer...once again your point being?"

The point being that you've been 100% wrong for at least the past 9 months, so why would I listen to anything you have to say about NYC RE? Plus, you don't even know what the concept of "demand increasing" is [or you didn't until I informed you].

nyc10022, BSexp...talk about those who are limited. Thanks for keeping my positive real estate story on top for all to see at SE.

...and, moreover, the point being that the way to "build wealth" until 50 is NOT to buy high and sell low (or not sell at all); rather, the point is to BUY LOW and SELL HIGH. See how it works?

What's wrong with it? Nothing other than it tends to kill the thread. Again, it seems to be your intention. Have fun.

"nyc10022, BSexp...talk about those who are limited. Thanks for keeping my positive real estate story on top for all to see at SE."

Unlike you, SteveF, I feel no need to hide data points.

And, you can bump this all day, there are still 10 different posts on all the negative news that came out today. Perhaps you want to read a couple of those. You might actually learn something about the RE market for once!

"...and, moreover, the point being that the way to "build wealth" until 50 is NOT to buy high and sell low (or not sell at all); rather, the point is to BUY LOW and SELL HIGH. See how it works?"

ha!

you mean, but at the top of a bubble leveraged 10 to 1 is NOT the secret to success?

SteveF didn't realize that his instruction manual from Trump was written by a guy who went bankrupt a few times. Whoops.

"The point being that you've been 100% wrong for at least the past 9 months"

Actually, nothing wrong with what you copied and pasted (I'll admit I didn't read the rest of the thread). Personally, I find steveF to be a bit of a shill, as he doesn't hesitate to paint a one-sided view of things, but as I've said before, there are people just as bad on the other side of the fence.

steveF - how do you feel about the following statement, which you made FOURTEEN MONTHS AGO - God, you take the proverbial cake, dude (I'm sorry to hear that you apparently followed your own foolish advice):

"Bears are screaming, screaming I say. Please drop! Please drop! Ya know a person usually starts talking very loudly and frequently when they are about to be proven wrong. Street_easy, boy your anxiety is sure out there. Dude, stop trying to time the market with Stevejhx, you and he will sleep alot better and that black under your eyes will go away. Unless inventory spike to 10-12k prices will not budge. They will only go higher. Everyone is ready to pounce as are you. BUY WHEN YOU CAN WITHOUT A BIDDING WAR."

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3394-manhattan-real-estate-rises-and-falls-in-10-yr-cycles

> "The point being that you've been 100% wrong for at least the past 9 months"
> Actually, nothing wrong with what you copied and pasted (I'll admit I didn't read the rest of the
> thread).

Steve called a bottom and a stampede 15 months ago, and then repeatedly since.

> Personally, I find steveF to be a bit of a shill, as he doesn't hesitate to paint a one-sided view
> of things, but as I've said before, there are people just as bad on the other side of the fence.

Didn't your mom every teach you anything? Jumping off the brooklyn bridge, all that?

Just because there are people "as bad" (which I don't actually think is true, but lets say it is), not sure how that is any excuse for the person.

There are serial killers out there, but that doesn't make stealing any better.

"Just because there are people "as bad" (which I don't actually think is true, but lets say it is), not sure how that is any excuse for the person"

I'll skip the horrendous serial killer analogy (wow), but where did I ever "excuse" steveF (and for the record I don't, especially on the most recent quote BSexposer just pulled out)? Strawman.

I'm talking about this:
"personally, I find steveF to be a bit of a shill, as he doesn't hesitate to paint a one-sided view of things, but as I've said before, there are people just as bad on the other side of the fence."

Yes, that in no way excuses him - it merely points out that he's not alone, and it's not just a trait of people with his view of the real estate market.

The problem is, when you put a "but" and conflicting statement in there, it does in fact excuse him.

...or how about this gem from the mind of steveF, from the same thread ("2009 is looking better and better" - WOWSER)?

"Bears, your hopes and dreams for prices to come down are fading fast, I don't know what you are looking at, but my studio condos comps prices have moved higher in the past year not lower and that's with the media induced terrified buyers sitting out-of-bounds....at the first positive media headline(which is coming soon) we will see every Joe shmoo and his brother "GETTING IN THE GAME" ....inventory already has decreased 10% from May highs...the Fed liquidity is pouring money into the economy....2009 is looking better and better....Wall Street? Once the street feels things are getting better it's off to the races and bonuses will be paid to keep those deals flowing....All you bears are self destructing and paralyzed by fear. But it's not too late..learn from this board..see yourselfs for the disasters you are and change...Good Luck.... :)"

" my studio condos comps prices have moved higher in the past year not lower and that's with the media induced terrified buyers sitting out-of-bounds'

ROTFL.

OK, one more and I'll stop (it's too cruel):

"Prices are headed higher..look for a 15-20% ramp up in 2009 when all the sideline buyers realize the market is heading higher."

...to be fair, he could have been referring to RE prices on some other planet in another solar system many galaxies away. Right, steveF? LOL.

ha, well done.

Guy says prices UP 20%, they go DOWN 20%, and he claims victory. Can't blame a moron for trying.

"The problem is, when you put a "but" and conflicting statement in there, it does in fact excuse him."

Wow. I rescind the "but" if it causes you to infer that I excuse him. I don't, and I also don't excuse those on the other side of the fence (which often includes you).

Somebody please reconcile the following 2 statements from steveF, I dare you. How can you not feel for this guy?

"But you cannot say "Prices are down/up" b/c real estate is so local, unlike the equity markets"

AND

"Prices are headed higher..look for a 15-20% ramp up in 2009 when all the sideline buyers realize the market is heading higher."

"Wow. I rescind the "but" if it causes you to infer that I excuse him. I don't, and I also don't excuse those on the other side of the fence (which often includes you)."

Every time you've tried to make an accusation of such about me, you haven't been wrong.

Or, more simply put... if you're trying to make the claim that I do what SteveF does on the other side, then you are absolutely just off your rocker.

"Every time you've tried to make an accusation of such about me, you haven't been wrong."

ha, sorry, you HAVE been wrong.

The claiming I said "never buy" last week (when I've said the opposite) was just the latest example.

Trying to "honestly" compare slant and unslanted thing is about as slanted as it gets... and you wonder why folks think you have an agenda.

"Wow. I rescind the "but" if it causes you to infer that I excuse him. I don't, and I also don't excuse those on the other side of the fence (which often includes you)."

And, the best part of all of this is... you "rescind" the but... and then put a WHOLE NEW ONE IN!

bjw, I'm not sure if you realize how slanted you are.

"Somebody please reconcile the following 2 statements from steveF, I dare you. How can you not feel for this guy?

"But you cannot say "Prices are down/up" b/c real estate is so local, unlike the equity markets"

AND

"Prices are headed higher..look for a 15-20% ramp up in 2009 when all the sideline buyers realize the market is heading higher."
"

good one, bs... keep 'em coming.

Thanks 10022 - steveF is the gift that keeps giving - would love to keep posting more of his gems, but the long weekend beckons - have a good one.

"Every time you've tried to make an accusation of such about me, you haven't been wrong.

Or, more simply put... if you're trying to make the claim that I do what SteveF does on the other side, then you are absolutely just off your rocker."

I haven't been wrong (thanks!)? Freudian slip? Nice! Seriously though, I think your view is more grounded in reality at this point (which yes, counts for a lot), but you have an obvious tendency to dismiss anything that doesn't jive with your hardline view. steveF does the exact same thing. That's my point of comparison. It may serve you well now, but not down the road. That's ultimately what I'm getting at.

"and you wonder why folks think you have an agenda."

Ha. Only you have said this (and your dear mutombo, who has a crush on you).

""Wow. I rescind the "but" if it causes you to infer that I excuse him. I don't, and I also don't excuse those on the other side of the fence (which often includes you)."
And, the best part of all of this is... you "rescind" the but... and then put a WHOLE NEW ONE IN!"

Since when does "and" = "but"?

"but you have an obvious tendency to dismiss anything that doesn't jive with your hardline view. steveF does the exact same thing. That's my point of comparison. It may serve you well now, but not down the road. That's ultimately what I'm getting at."

Yes, its your own brand of slant. Playing "neutral" between hitler and the allies is not actually being neutral. Its the worst kind of slant.

> Since when does "and" = "but"?

When you try really, really hard to slip it in.

It is pretty funny... you can't just admit a bull is wrong without some kind of counterclaim.

IMHO, the worst kind of slant.

"Yes, its your own brand of slant. Playing "neutral" between hitler and the allies is not actually being neutral. Its the worst kind of slant."

Wow, what a godawful analogy. Hitler? Really? And it's not slant - the idea here is too get as much honesty as possible. Nothing to do with a war or Nazis or anything. Yikes.

"When you try really, really hard to slip it in.
It is pretty funny... you can't just admit a bull is wrong without some kind of counterclaim."

What? It's not "slipped in" anywhere! "And" is "and"! Both statements are true, I think. And I don't need a counterclaim if I tell you steveF is mistaken; you just want me to say he is mistaken AND you're right. Not always true.

"And it's not slant - the idea here is too get as much honesty as possible."

And defending SteveF is the opposite of that.

> "What? It's not "slipped in" anywhere! "And" is "and"!

And "and" attached the first part to a counterclaim!

You can't just admit SteveF is off without saying something the other way.

> And I don't need a counterclaim if I tell you steveF is mistaken

I agree! Yet you always include one!

> you just want me to say he is mistaken AND you're right. Not always true."

No, just to be able to say it, and then not have to give a counter-example.

"And defending SteveF is the opposite of that."

Get it through your head that I am in no way defending him.

"No, just to be able to say it, and then not have to give a counter-example."

What are these cockamamie rules, hall monitor?

It would be better if people could express their point of view clearly and offer necessary support succinctly, then they wouldn't be in a position to need to post over and over and argue. The reader could see clearly what one person's position is and judge. Repeated posting does not get the point across - it detracts from it.