Prices have just STARTED to decline....

lol..only time will tell

"They will be down at LEAST 75%"

Thank god people don't post ridiculous estimations they can't support with facts.

what are you basing your 75% on?

anon3, at least...! I totally agree.

I'm thinking more like 98%

if they come down 80%, I'm totally in. will buy that 2M three bedroom that I've been dreaming of on UWS.

I think it'll be at least 124%.

I'd backtrack to 98-99 prices. Which of course, is 124%

According to Bloomberg "In 1999, the median sales price of all Manhattan apartments was just $310,000. By 2004, it almost doubled to $605,000. The average price per square foot rose from about $400 in 1999 to $1,251 last year."

Sounds like AT LEAST a 75% price cut to me. Get out IF you can, but if you are a buyer STAY AWAY, this market is a terrible sinking ship.

I'm thinking that the prices drops so low that they actually pay you to take the space. That's right! You herd it here first. 115% drop!!! You close, no money comes out of your pocket and because it's negative equity the RE agent has to kick in money!!!
Oh Yeah, and I picked just the right 6 numbers so tonight I'm gonna be rich. On the way home I'm going to stop at my girl friend's house, Morgan Fairchild, for copious free sex.
If we are going to BS ourselves...that economy will come roaring back bt thursday...no, make that tuesday!

Nothing happens by itself. If RE really fell by the proposed amount consider the condition of the city at large. If it's only about the price of RE...move to Newark where the price per sq/ft is more reasonable.

I will just repeat the figures above. Draw your own conclusions. In the 70s people WERE giving away apartments in prime UES locations. Things may not be as bad in NYC as the 70s, but clearly worse then 1999:

According to Bloomberg "In 1999, the median sales price of all Manhattan apartments was just $310,000. By 2004, it almost doubled to $605,000. The average price per square foot rose from about $400 in 1999 to $1,251 last year."

prices will be down 75%? Where do you buy your crack from? Everybody knows that prices are going to fall by at least 150%. I'm not buying until developers start holding "Buy 1 Condo and get 1 free" sales.

Although the 75% sounds rediculous, there is an interesting problem that most people who do analyses and give speaches and write articles are long real estate as most Americans are. So i think the market is still going lower but the bias problem is one to consider

The only thing that's 100% certain is that none of us has a clue.

Yes..prices drop 80% but maintanence goes up 500%. How bout that! net net????

"I'm thinking more like 98%"

and maybe even more LOL, all it could take will be the willingness to pay taxes like there's no tomorrow. owning could end up being as glorified renting if property taxes go up to pay for unfunded pensions. time will tell.

the only way to see 75% drops is for something major to happen, like a man made or natural disaster, or NYC turning into Detroit. If all the global warming projections are right, NYC should be underwater within 100 years. So that may very well cause prices to decline 100%.

"Thank god people don't post ridiculous estimations they can't support with facts. "

You mean like "there will be no decline"?

"the only way to see 75% drops is for something major to happen, like a man made or natural disaster, or NYC turning into Detroit."

No, that would be a 99% drop.

In terms of "something major", yeah, I know you missed this alpine, but we're kind in the most major recession in 4/5s of a century.

Whoops.

75% would take us back to 99 prices...does not seem crazy to me.

we didn't see prices drop 99% after 9/11.

> we didn't see prices drop 99% after 9/11.

Which is just more reason that there is more decline to be had now...

Anon - what's your angle here. You lurking on the fringes trying to talk the market down, ready to pounce when you smell a bottom? Or are you just bored.

there are no facts available from the future

my guess nyre bottoms over 2 years in a range down >50%

if you plan to hold for a min of 5 yrs, buy that trough

anons angle: hes offering his opinion on price direction and amplitude. welcome to se.

"anons angle: hes offering his opinion on price direction and amplitude. welcome to se."

Yes, but with no real concrete basis behind his numbers. He's just spouting hyperbole for whatever reason. Hard to back his sentiment otherwise. Plenty of other people have made a better case but with what are probably more realistic estimates (and you know, actual substance).

Well, if its concrete basis we seek.... how about...

1) the earnings reports coming out this week will confirm, by, yes, we are in a recession.
2) the "rally" petered out, we're still down for the year
3) some recession estimates are getting worse
4) unemployment rate is actually worse than the "armageddon" predictions
5) folks still coming off severance
6) the manhattan down 20% numbers "just came out" for a lot of folks with the recent market reports. Scarily, this is recent news to a lot of folks, and it came right before the stock market tanked, so thats going to hurt a bit
7) new inventory still coming to market, average sales time still increasing
8) folks are now seeing the "visible" signs of the decline in nyc. a few months ago, it was just panic. now, you see empty storefronts and half completed buildings and auctions and all that - a lot of folks who didn't really "see it" will now.

"1) the earnings reports coming out this week will confirm, by, yes, we are in a recession."

The bank earning reports are expected to be strong, especially Goldman's.

"Well, if its concrete basis we seek.... how about..."

I'm not saying there's no basis for downward pressure on prices, I'm saying there's nothing there that says "at LEAST 75%." Big difference.

> The bank earning reports are expected to be strong

Only if strong is defined as "not that horrible".

In that case, a "strong" manhattan RE market could be down 35%

which, btw, is about what Goldman stock price is off peak. 35% down is STRONG!