Shadow Inventory

there are not 20,00 units. That number sounds drastically inflated.

anon3, I've read that it's at least 23543453 units! No really dude, enough with the fearmongering on every thread. Yes, there's plenty of bad news out there, but you come off as a chicken running with its head cut off.

According to Crains "Some 93,000 new condo units will be completed nationally this year, including more than 12,000 units in New York and northern New Jersey, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm."

so 12,000 new units coming on JUST this year, plus all the units that came online last year and year before that are unsold....it may be close to 20,000....

definitely pretty cheezy..and I love a good bear

did you not notice that the 12,00 figure includes NEW JERSEY? So no, Manhattan does not have 12,000 shadow apts.

Includes Northern NJ and rest of NYC. These are only figures for apts coming online THIS YEAR. More than 2x the current Manhattan inventory and there is more out there. Most of these new buildings will probably go bankrupt and be sold in auction. Tons of inventory out there. Would like to know if anyone has Manhattan estimates.

Yes, its "only" 10k in Manhattan. (building trades council).

whoops.

Shut it Alpine, you're wrong as usual!

Residential developers' about-face:
May 17, 2009 5:59 AM

Inventory in Manhattan has reached 10,908, its highest level in a decade, according to Mr. Miller. To make matters worse, in the five boroughs there are an additional 22,000 units of shadow inventory—apartments that are not being actively marketed to buyers.

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090517/FREE/305179981

"...including more than 12,000 units in New York and northern New Jersey, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm."

"To make matters worse, in the five boroughs there are an additional 22,000 units of shadow inventory—apartments that are not being actively marketed to buyers."

Funny, I guess nobody has a clue how much shadow invetory there is. Pretty interersting, especialy since both of these conflciting quotes come from Crain's.

Where does it conflict ? Isn't 22,000 more than 12,000?

if the author truly knew there were 22,000 shadow units, they would not have said "More than 12,000." They would have been more precise, such as "more than 20,000." And the 12,00 figure includes the outer boroughs and NJ so the shadow inventory in Manhattan could very well be under 10,000.

Who knows what evil lurkes in the hearts of men...only the Shadow knows...
I heard it's closer to a billion lux penthouse wrap terrace wbf units. I also heard that they are only going to release them a million at a time every other week starting September 1, 2009. should have only a slight impact on Lux units already on the market.

falco,

how are RE prices in Tibet these days?

Wow, that a TON of shadow inventory! These new development prices are about to crack. Down 75-80% by the time this is all over...

price implosion!!