Goldman Sachs record profit -- bonuses

the rolling stone author wrote a long piece about the link -- it was posted on here.

this is the most hopeful sign for NY real estate I have seen...im no RE bull, but a flood of bonus money will make a difference

read some zerohedge on goldmans playa like ways

this will be a big problem for obama admin....cannot imagine how they can let bid bucks flow.

Goldman is re-paying their TARP so there is nothing the govt. can do. Goldman has every right to pay bonuses.

No right! Goldman has a lot of debts that is guaranteed by the government. The Gov. also has a lot of warrants of GS. So, they are still subject to the bonusgate.

If Goldman doesn't pay bonuses, then GOldman keeps the money for its shareholders. For all the rational people, would you rather have compensation paid, or money retained and an increasing share price? I ask the question, because the money doesn't just evaporate if it isn't paid as bonuses. If the Company makes money, it makes money... are we back to all spoils to the owners?

The bonus pool should reimburse tax payers for the fiasco on AIG CDS payouts.

If aig doesnt pay out on thier CDS contarcts, then the banks the company into Chapter 7...you cant have it both ways.

people will definitely get paid, but its the same people that have been getting paid all along. This money is already in NYC real estate.

either way, people are going to get paid in deferred comp over years...so even if bonuses are big, people arent necessarily going to be feeling very rich

Im just wondering if now is really the 'time' to buy nyc real estate.......and not wait any longer

Mhillqt, what are you actually waiting for? Are you trying to time the marekt? Please stop. If your "life circumstances" say now is the time to buy then you have your answer.

NYC real estate continues to decline so why jump in now when there is greater probability that prices go down more? possibly significantly much lower. patience is key right now

marco, do you have a link to your "crystal ball"? decline? what does that actually mean? sales? studios? hoods? Prices have been heading higher since March/April as buyers have dropped inventory by 1200+ units.

Wait...i thought they said this is all speculation and not true.

I TOLD YOU!!!

i can't see the bonus money going into high end real estate since the wall street execs don't know when the axe will fall... are they really going to spend crazy amounts of their bonus money on an apartment.

no crystal ball...just common sense. GS can pay out all they want, its not gonna make a difference. The loss of Lehman Bear and Merrill and the cintinuing enemployment / underemployment will keep RE down for quite some time to come. Just wlking around the UES, I cant believe how many empty stores there are.

marco_m, your argument that 'it's the same people who have been getting paid all along', therefore it will have no impact on NYC real estate makes no sense. So do people buy 1 apt and live there for the rest of their lives? 1 thing that we've been hearing lately, and statistics seem to bear out, is that the activity in the market is concentrated in the lower-end of the market - helped by extremely low conforming mtge rates and a little bit by the 1st time buyer tax credits. the fact that some of those who already own are doing well financially, coupled with a steady narrowing of the spread between jumbo and conforming mtge rates, means we are likely to see an improvement in the mid to higher ends of the market.
does that mean that we are jumping 10% tomorrow? of course not. but to say that the dramatic upswing in wall street profitability this year compared to last will have no impact is absurd.

If the bulls are pinning thier hopes to a wall st bonuses to drive things higher, you guys are toast. the bottom line is that there are less wall st. jobs today then there was a year ago. Not just jobs, but entire banks and products that are gone. the rental market is showing you what is going to happen.

marco,
You need to keep things in perspective. Higher bonuses at the very minimum will help improve the overall sentiment, and would help prices stay above where they would be without these higher bonuses. Clearly this is just one factor, and the apt prices may keep going down, but to say that this will have no impact on the prices is wishful thinking in my opinion.

Only time will tell. If Im wrong, then I'll have to pay up. But given what I see from just walking around the city and the fact that I work at one of the top banks on the street, I think I have a pretty good idea as to how things are gonna pan out. but we'll see what happens

Marco will decide it's time to buy when all the stores are full, all bankers have their jobs and rentals are booming. Oh yeah then you have missed your time and prices will be up up up.... That is what happens when you are a market timer

Yeah Marco the banks really knew what was happening before didn't they?

id rather catch something on the upswing rather than the downswing. like I said, we'll see what happens. Im not afraid either way..I sense some people here are all in and have no way out if things dont come back soon. sucks being on the worng side of a trade...Ive been there and Ive taken my losses and i keep on goin. good luck fella's.

what trade? this is real estate not stocks. Totally Different.

An improving economy and stock market will ABSOLUTELY have a positive effect on the housing market.
Anyone that think otherwise really need to STFU.

"id rather catch something on the upswing rather than the downswing."

Surrreeeee.....

"Marco will decide it's time to buy when all the stores are full, all bankers have their jobs and rentals are booming. Oh yeah then you have missed your time and prices will be up up up.... That is what happens when you are a market timer"

Please, marco is right that it's better to catch it on the upswing, especially if you have no real need to own with any time constraints. I do think the bonuses will help a bit, but we're only talking about a limited number of people in Manhattan who will be benefiting here to begin with. petrfitz, you're one classy dude.

> what trade? this is real estate not stocks. Totally Different.

Of course, SteveF says the exact opposite when its convenient!

> An improving economy and stock market will ABSOLUTELY have a positive effect on the housing market.

Of course, among many other factors... problem is, stock market dropped, what, 700 points? And the economy is STILl in recession (as in not improving, but still getting smaller).

Way to prove the point.

And, oh yeah, all those other pesky factors like, uh, employment, incomes, bla bla bla.

And, of course, Goldman is doing better than other banks. Sure. I'm happy about that... I own some.

But you got that whole part about them being the exception, right...
"Most of Wall Street, and America, is still waiting for an economic recovery."

Unless Goldman hires the rest of wall street....

Forget whether it's in real estate or not. It's all about the headline. People will focus on 3 words...Goldman/Record/Bonuses. It will build on itself. Once again the cycle continues.

Yes, people with no money will buy apartments because they read the headlines!

Of course, they'll ignore the headlines about the continued recession, and, uh, bailout part 2.
And the every other bank laying off headlines.

Only if you get to their paper and cut out the truth first, Steve. Would not be surprised if you did that.

> Once again the cycle continues.

Yes, the cycle continues... folks who couldn't afford the properties they mortgaged telling everyone else "now is the time to get in". Yes, its an old cycle.

"Forget whether it's in real estate or not. It's all about the headline. People will focus on 3 words...Goldman/Record/Bonuses. It will build on itself. Once again the cycle continues. "

thats very dangerous. are you prepared if the cycle doesnt continue? right now, the only cycle going on is a downward spiral.

> are you prepared if the cycle doesnt continue?

Yes, he's got 2 more years of incorrect rationalizations where the first year came from.