Forbes: Why NYC market lags and will continue to fall (Miller)

buy now or be priced out forever... steveF said so.

intelligent, analytical, statiscal analysis like these should, but won't, put to rest all the chatter about which way the market is going. it's going down. no one knows how far down or for how long, but the short and medium term directions are clear. that a piece like this suggests that '99 levels are a possible and credible endpoint is pretty chilling.

*yawn*

LICComment will tell you that this analysis doesn't include the TAX BENEFIT, and it probably stupidly includes dumb old transaction costs poo-poo to that. Cap rates are dumb, rent-to-price ratios are dumb, none of this matters.

Care to back me up on this one, LICC? Don't say you didn't say these things - WE CAN FIND THEM!

Every time wonderboy yawns, its something he vehemently disagreed with the day before.
So, take it as agreement.

Even the bulls aren't bullish anymore.

Wonderboy -- with a mobile update from within his tanning salon bed.

And what ever happened to malraux?

ok. my family has a new project. no more "rent till buying in 2012". oh no... that would be too easy. :-)

if prices don't totally collapse by 2012 (we have cash but hate debt) we are planning to leave the country killing 2 birds at once: the issue of the entitlements ($175k debt per person), cost of this bail out (wall street and overextended homeowners) and still inflated housing prices. found that many countries give fast residency if you can show sizable investments. is anybody in their early 30s also thinking along these lines?

it's not that easy to find the right place though... anyway, if the government succeeds keeping home prices up we leave, if they fail we stay. it could be the ultimate "big picture" portfolio allocation if done right.

I hear there are some very nice mountains with caves on the border of Pakistan. Thye have a pretty good rent-to-price ratio.

omg, no kidding! i should fear more the AARP than bin laden.

"Some 2,500 of these shadow listings belong to sellers who have some flexibility to keep their listings off the market in hopes of better pricing."

Is someone who would "like to sell" but "have some flexibility to keep their listings off the market in hopes of better pricing" really shadow inventory? If that's the case, isn't the number more like 100,000 units?

waverly, before you kill the messenger, check out http://www.iousathemovie.com/

btw, i absolutely love david walker, that's courage!

"Is someone who would "like to sell" but "have some flexibility to keep their listings off the market in hopes of better pricing" really shadow inventory? If that's the case, isn't the number more like 100,000 units?"

maybe there are a few that would actually prefer never to sell? some properties are in trust funds? how many residential properties are in manhattan in total?

Admin, moving will not alleviate you from bankrolling the bailout> I live abroad and as an american citizen I have to pay taxes in america, global income, capital gains, etc....

"if prices don't totally collapse by 2012 (we have cash but hate debt) we are planning to leave the country killing 2 birds at once:"

Oh shut up. Your not going to leave the country and you know it. You remind me of all the Holywood liberal celebrities who said they were going to move if Bush got elected and they are all STILL here. They never left!

30yrs - Yeah, I agree with your post. There was always shadow inventory, even 2002-2006, so it is important to not overcalculate it now. I am sure there is a slight bit more now, but it was always there in better times, too.

mimi, in our case the bread winner is not an american citizen though, so for us it will work. it's true that's tricky. where are you living?

You people should remember one key factor: demographics
140 Millions of baby boomers VS 44 Millions baby busters.
Do you really think Baby boomers are going to stay in NYC when they retire? With inflation, increasing income taxes and real estate taxes, they will leave NY! Not all of them but a huge chunk of them.
I mentioned it a few weeks ago on this thread below:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/10964-zillow-ceo-says-more-bad-news-to-come-shadow-sellers
Read the Bloomberg link! It makes you think differently.

In Argentina. No tax agreement. Total pain in the neck to file in both places. But I just love living here.

I wish nyc10022 would leave the country.

yep. i'm looking for exactly the opposite thing. we are craving stability and visibility. Netherlands, Switzerland, those types.

> I wish nyc10022 would leave the country.

I'm thrilled you're stuck in New Jersey and can't get over here.

But I'm also thrilled that you hate me, because it pretty clearly shows I'm right. Nobody more wrong than you.

mimi, we plan on living not from salaries though. argentina loosely tax rental income for ex, and that type of income will not have to pay FICA either. also if you are employed by a foreign company you don't pay fica even if you are a citizen (maybe that will change though).

sledge - a lot of baby boomers are grandparents and do not want to be too far away from their kids and grandchildren. People don't just up and leave for Florida or Arizona today like they used to. More and more retirees stay in the area and stay near their kids and lead a very active lifestyle.

particularly when their kids and grandkids move in with them!

agree with that waverly. the old might stay close to their kids and downsize by swapping their property for the tiny apartment of a kid with a growing family. but still, that means that the young family will not be in the mkt for a bigger property down the road. the amount of transactions is going to stay at very depressed levels during the next decade imho.

"but still, that means that the young family will not be in the mkt for a bigger property down the road."

Why? Are people going to raise their families in 1 bedroom apts. from now on?

That statement of yours is too funny Waverly. I'm still laughing. What is sooo different this time?
Is that the way you analise these numbers? You remind me most bulls on street easy when they were saying,: Yeah! Ok, prices are plummeting all over the country but here in NY, we're different! We won't drop!
Older people need calm and sun. If their health depends on it, that's what they will do. If their doctor recom,mend it, they will listen! If they make the numbers and realize they save $2000/month moving to Florida or Arizona vs living in NY, they will get the hell out and come visit for Holidays! Do you really believe people wanna die in NY? Think again! People are here to make some money and get the fuck out when they retire. Me included!

cc - always there to see the glass as half-empty.

admin - true. I was just trying to give a bit more insight to the retiree aspect, not suggesting that ti would be a huge difference maker. Just that there are more ways to try to look at things (hint...cc).

you are wrong sledheammer. According to the Commerce Dept., the number of peopel who are moving is at an all time low. If the old people can't sell their houses, they will stay put rather than take a hit. Plus, even for the old people in NY, their housing expense are rather low since many of them do not have a mortgage. So if they own an average house, all they have to pay are the $10k in taxes, which is less than $1,000 a month.

sledge - people retiring today have more $ than they did 40 years ago because they (hopefullY) invested it instead of relying just on SS or their company's pension.

No bull argument here. Sorry you need to label everything black or white. Just some more information to fill out your statement.

Alpine, if the house was paid off years ago and they didn't borrow against their equity? Where are they possibly taking a hit? They will make a profit no matter what on the resale unless they bought after 98, but who is stupid enough to take a 30 years mortgage when you're 10 years away from retiring? It probably happened, but that's not the majority. Also price have not dropped as much in NYC than they have in the rest of the country, so they are still ahead selling in NY and buying elsewhere.

in their mind the are taking a hit. If their next door neighbor sold their house 2 years ago for $700k and they can only get $600k, they believe they took a $100k hit. They beleive this, even if they only paid $200k for their house.

geesh: I was actually trying to make a joke. clearly, not my strength.

"in their mind the are taking a hit. If their next door neighbor sold their house 2 years ago for $700k and they can only get $600k, they believe they took a $100k hit. They beleive this, even if they only paid $200k for their house."

that's true with my parents. even though they say they'll never sell. so why the trouble? somehow at some point in life many people like to have an idea of their net worth, and they tend to add their 1st residency to it. more gruesome is that 80% of people 60 and older not only add their main residency but what they estimate will be their inheritance, even if it might be decades away. that's even worse i think.

The_President

in their mind the are taking a hit. If their next door neighbor sold their house 2 years ago for $700k and they can only get $600k, they believe they took a $100k hit. They beleive this, even if they only paid $200k for their house.
_______________

You assume "they" think prices will recover. For those thinking it may only get worse (clearly people have different opinions on the matter sampling posts on these threads...), they will cash out now today "at a loss" instead of waiting tomorrow to get EVEN less....

admin

ok. my family has a new project. no more "rent till buying in 2012". oh no... that would be too easy. :-)

if prices don't totally collapse by 2012 (we have cash but hate debt) we are planning to leave the country killing 2 birds at once: the issue of the entitlements ($175k debt per person), cost of this bail out (wall street and overextended homeowners) and still inflated housing prices. found that many countries give fast residency if you can show sizable investments. is anybody in their early 30s also thinking along these lines?

it's not that easy to find the right place though... anyway, if the government succeeds keeping home prices up we leave, if they fail we stay. it could be the ultimate "big picture" portfolio allocation if done right.

__________________

I like the idea, just not sure what place is better off.

RE retirement plans, I am planning to retire in NY actually, and that's why I'm looking for a place. I figured that my american children would study here and we'll be able to spend more time with them. It is great to raise them in Argentina, though.

"more gruesome is that 80% of people 60 and older not only add their main residency but what they estimate will be their inheritance, even if it might be decades away. that's even worse i think."

Who are people over 60 going to inherit money from? I'd imagine that their parents and grandparents are already dead.

from older dogs who are still hanging in there.

"more gruesome is that 80% of people 60 and older not only add their main residency but what they estimate will be their inheritance, even if it might be decades away. that's even worse i think."

Who are people over 60 going to inherit money from? I'd imagine that their parents and grandparents are already dead.

====

according to that article their parents, aged 85 and over, some of them live much longer than normal so that their own kids and spouses wonder "when am i gonna get it"?. in the extreme you have the cases of Brooke Astor and Howard Marshall. back then there was a feud in my own family (a peanut version of these 2 cases) around this issue and that article made me feel that it's kind of normal (besides of pathetic, which i already knew back then).

"article made me feel that it's kind of normal "

Robert Ringer, Winning Through Intimidation, Chapter 4:Three Unforgettable Professors at Screw U, Type Number Three.

CNBC's Karen Finerman just DOUBLED her short position on commercial real estate
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12946-finerman-doubling-her-commercial-real-estate-short-position

"Robert Ringer, Winning Through Intimidation"

thanks 30yrs, i'll read it, it appears to be a pretty popular book. didn't hear about this author before. there seems to be a new version of it "To Be or Not to Be Intimidated?: That is the Question"

"Ringer sets the stage by exploding the myths that "working long, hard hours" and "having a positive mental attitude" will insure success. He concludes that working long, hard hours will just make you old and that it’s practically impossible to keep a positive mental attitude when you are constantly getting kicked in the teeth!"

omg, what a jewel!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31896808

"Your First Move For Tuesday July 14th

PROP DESK: Commercial Real Estate

Karen Finerman has been saying for weeks that commercial real estate looks like the next shoe to fall. So why is she taking her bearish bets off the table?

A lot of these companies were able to raise equity in the second quarter as the market moved higher. The near term risk of them falling off a cliff is no longer there. Considering the risk reward has changed I just can’t justify being short.

FAST MONEY // Latest Rapid Recap
Get RSS Feed
Go to Main Page"

"there seems to be a new version of it "To Be or Not to Be Intimidated?: That is the Question""

It's from ?1973" so he's been constantly updating, but I never know when it's an "update" or a whole new book since a lot of his titles sound the same.

I'd also recommend Harvey Mackay's Swim With The Sharks and Beware the Naked Man Who Offers You His Shirt.

If someone from CNBC cays "I just can’t justify being short" then SHORT COMMERCIAL RE. Get the hell out of it ASAP!

another random comment from the amphibious bull

hey i like that:

AMPHIBIOUS BULLS

cc - my apologies. Jokes are always appreciated. That one went over me, so my bad.

Karen Finerman told everyone to buy CROX last year - she's clueless.

She only lost about 3/4 of her $$$ on the investment...

April 14, 2008 6:26 PM EDT

Oh my...Karen Finerman finally selling Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX). Karen Finerman was buying Crocs in early November 07 because she thought CROX was oversold. She was buying Crocs in the $48 price range; in the after-hours this evening Crocs is trading at $13, that's a 73% loss in value for Finerman.

On Fast Money, a month later (in December) after her initial call, Karen Finerman said that there is more growth ahead for CROX. She recalls a few years ago, when people thought Decker Outdoors' (Nasdaq: DECK) Uggs brand was a fad, (Uggs brand continues to grow) but it obviously was not, as DECK has exploded over the past few years. She thinks Crocs could follow the same path as Decker Outdoors.

Additionally, she said, as long as retailers are willing to give Crocs floor space, Crocs will be successful at selling its wares. Crocs was trading at $45.21.

A few weeks ago, Finerman said she liked that an insider bought shares, and she did work on the stock and felt more insiders would buy shares after their 6-month frozen period was over.

Well, tonight on Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she is abandoning plans to stay in CROX and plans on selling Crocs because management has disappointed her. [JT]

> AMPHIBIOUS BULLS

He puts on the wet suits and swims from New Jersey when he visits.

Presi: "Oh shut up. Your not going to leave the country and you know it. You remind me of all the Holywood liberal celebrities who said they were going to move if Bush got elected and they are all STILL here. They never left!"

you are right. if i dont' comply you can kick my ass like there's no tomorrow if you wish to. it's a deal.

those guys have a ton to lose by moving though (unlike us) so maybe never even consider it seriously. and i agree, all they are doing is preaching cheap morality for cheap exposition. non religious might be, but preaching non the less. like Robert Ringer (thanks 30yrs!) said, i'm just trying to look out for number one. not declaring my superiority over others nor asking others to "change" to accommodate my preferences. anyway, so far in my list of possibilities are bahamas, netherlands, switzerland, qatar and singapore. but still studying it, i'm all over the place so far.

Presi: "Oh shut up. Your not going to leave the country and you know it. You remind me of all the Holywood liberal celebrities who said they were going to move if Bush got elected and they are all STILL here. They never left!"

____

Johnny Depp and George Clooney left, actually.

johnny and shakira went for bahamas. cannot be that bad!

Was this written before the Goldman record bonus news? I think they might want to revise those numbers and projections.

George Clooney did not leave the U.S.

Yes he did....he lives in Italy most of the time.

hey mimi, if you are a USA citizen, and a bona fide resident of Argentina for a whole year you shouldn't pay USA taxes (you could claim both the foreign earned income exclusion for $87k/person or $175k/couple if both work and the foreign housing exclusion, up to $26k) no matter whether there's a tax treaty between both countries or not. the only thing that changes if you have a treaty is that instead of the bona fide you do the physical test.

http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=96822,00.html
http://www.irs.ustreas.gov/businesses/article/0,,id=182017,00.html

if you are employed by a foreigner then you don't need to pay FICA either. if employed by a USA company then you need the treaty to avoid double taxation on that. although you do avoid most of the income taxes at all levels if your household earns less than $175k, so there might be some tax arbitrage.

"hey mimi, if you are a USA citizen, and a bona fide resident of Argentina for a whole year you shouldn't pay USA taxes"

mimi is Gov. Sanford's mistress?

Hey admin, come on now...we have a deficit and need some tax money. Let mimi pay her taxes.

for a moment i thought that mimi could use that $ more wisely than the usa government... but then i realized that just couldn't be possible, right?