Condo contracts/closings report - The Real Deal

but stevef said there would be a stampede!

wait, i wasn't supposed to listen to him???

Wow, gee.... the TOP 10 go from the lowest of 5 ALL THE WAY UP TO *10* for the TOP building.

stampede, I tell you, stampede.

Yeah, there are no real winners here among the developments. And probably no real news, either. Just thought it was a convenient, clear summary.

Still, kinda shocking how empty many of these places are ... and how swiftly the market turned against them.

Interesting how the top-selling buildings in Williamsburg are so small (4 units going into contract in buildings with 6, 6, and 9 total units).

'22: get over the stampede thing already. Were you always a bully? I mean, did steveF really say that? Only references I found were hearssay:

>>>
JKB, about 4 months ago
SteveF warned this sideline buyer about the imminent 'stampede' of other sideline buyers that would run me over in a rush to buy all the great deals out there.

That was four months ago. Still waiting for the rumble ...
<<<

'22: If there's still ample amounts of stupidity to be responded to, why do you have to keep bringing up old garbage? I'm still hoping you'll go "unpredictable" on us and start making thoughtful, interesting posts.

FWIW, I found the word "stampede" (such a hyperbolic metaphor!) used more often by bears, e.g.:

sured: "All we have to do now is wait for the domino effect and the herd mentality to create an exit stampede."

totallyanonymous: "This is the stampede to the bottom boys. Hold on tight. "

nycjunior1: "You and other sellers are waiting until the flame is right in your face. When that happens you are all going to try to stampede out the door at once."

If there are no herds of bears, how do you get a stampede? ;)

'22: Are you still making these predictable, rude, unconstructive posts because "there is still ample amounts of the same predictable stupidity to respond to?" If so, why keep bringing up this garbage from the distant past?

JKB, this is pretty amazing. These are "signs of life"? Only one condo in all of NYC managed to average more than 3 contracts a month March though May? And look at the top 3 Manhattan condos "Deals offered":

-Four closed contracts showed price cuts up to 25 percent, and in April Halstead began marketing pairs of units to investors for 10 percent off.

-Three closed contracts showed price cuts up to 27 percent. Buyers received a coupon for the 1.825 percent combined city and state real estate transfer tax, which averaged $10,493 per contract signed during this period.

-Two closed contracts showed price cuts up to 35 percent, which were both originally insider deals in which the contract holder forfeited the deposit.

Thanks. Great find.

Yeah, tenemental, it's more like an IV drip keeping the patient alive (barely).

That pattern in WBurg with the small buildings moving far more units percentage-wise is interesting. Wonder why that is. Nicer places/smarter pricing by smaller developers? Some sort of buyer preference for smaller structures?

Hard to say.

wow. maybe june and july get better for developers. the buildings on columbus and 100th (where whole foods will open) were originally intended for sale or for rent? the website of the first one to come to mkt seens to be rentals

http://www.columbussq.com/#/home
"rent your home, own your life"

5th Street Lofts at 509 48th
Avenue (Long Island City)

offers “live free for one year” program that covers carrying costs, including mortgage payments, HOA fees and taxes by toll brothers. how can small developers compete with that?

Ok, just re-looked at the chart. It appears the developer of the two successful 'boutique' condos in Wburg was indeed smart and cut prices - roughly 30% across the board. That's dealin'!

Anyone have a view on the quality of those places? bjw? It's not my turf.

easy for a company like Toll Brothers to make offers like that. These incentives are there to get rid of the 5 remaining units they have left. Don't know how much they are willing to reduce the price, however. Just went into contract there, and there was a real difference between the individual units as to how much Toll was willing to drop the price. We got a good deal, but similar units were not open to such cuts. BTW, best quality in LIC IMO.

"Ok, just re-looked at the chart. It appears the developer of the two successful 'boutique' condos in Wburg was indeed smart and cut prices - roughly 30% across the board. That's dealin'!

Anyone have a view on the quality of those places? bjw? It's not my turf."

JKB, great find. Kind of hilarious that they called this "signs of life," but what do you expect? Anyway, I think the boutique developments story is interesting, and it's one that gets far less coverage than all the madness by the waterfront. Obviously, it's much easier for these smaller buildings to reach that 70% threshold for the banks to start lending, and once they get to the last few units, they'll make deals and slash prices pretty easily, especially if they're already in the black and/or have another project underway already. That was pretty much my approach in finding a place (the credit should go to my dad, who's been investing in real estate for 4 decades now). As for these buildings in particular, I believe they were at somewhat "lower" price points to begin with - 90 Guernsey is technically Greenpoint (and it's a fairly ugly exterior), and 444 Humboldt is East Williamsburg. I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend continue, even in more "prime" locations.

Kind of hilarious that they called this "signs of life,"

men, i thought they were being ironic. the patient is in the IC unit showing signs of life.

"That was pretty much my approach in finding a place (the credit should go to my dad, who's been investing in real estate for 4 decades now)."

nice! give the old man a hug for me.

Thanks for the details, bjw, and congrats on whatever deal you worked.

I'm too lazy to dig for the link, but there was a small condo conversion in Carroll Gardens that moved most (or all) of its units pretty quickly (noted on Brownstoner). And there didn't appear to be major price concessions. They were just nice units, decently priced, it appeared (or, at least, decently enough to find the four just-over $1M buyers the condo needed).

It's interesting to see little places sell quickly (again, percentage-wise) and big developments stall and stall at 30% sold or less. I think the 70% financing threshold is part of the story, but when it's a 5-6 unit place, does that mean your first 3-4 buyers were all-cash (or very cash-heavy)?

If that's so, these empty developments (and those to follow) are toast! Seems like these smaller guys can move a few units and cash out fast. Can't see that the bigger ones have any choice but to go rental.

And if there's widespread flight to rentals, they're all going to be in direct competition with one another, no? Good if you want to rent in one of these places.

JKB, are you sure you don't mean 72 Berry? It was a condo conversion, started sales in Feb, already sold out (25 units, I think). Price points were lower and product appears to be quality. I was a bit surprised since some of the layouts weren't optimal (lots of large "offices" - obviously intended as bedrooms - without windows), but it went quite quickly. But I wouldn't be surprised if someone else did something similar elsewhere. I don't know how many of the smaller developments saw cash-heavy buyers come in first, but I'm sure it's happened. I agree about the larger developments - I never even bothered to look at NSP or the Edge - way too much risk involved at this point. I don't know how likely they'll move to rental (they may not have a choice), but as with the smaller developments, people who go after the last few units (whenever that happens) will likely have a lot of room for negotiation.

"It's interesting to see little places sell quickly (again, percentage-wise) and big developments stall and stall at 30% sold or less. I think the 70% financing threshold is part of the story, but when it's a 5-6 unit place, does that mean your first 3-4 buyers were all-cash (or very cash-heavy)?"

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yep, definitely credit has a lot to do with it. but also preferences. most of the side-liners i know (renters would be 1st time home buyers) want a place with character instead of a cookie cutter. kind of funny that it used to be that priced out people would try to buy even a tiny studio. there was a "better to own a tiny barely livable place than to rent a decent place" type of mentality.

now not only they demand more space, also they seem to have more requirements (location, style, noise, light, ...). this is just anecdotal, what i hear here and there (like almost every article in the nytimes anyway ... numbers are tough to find... ). maybe it's their own version of wishful thinking.

it kind of feels to me like those movies "the revenge of the nerds". also seen it regarding the job market. those with steady employment making fun of those on wall street and starving realwhores. same feeling of "who's laughing now?"

bjw, no this particular place was 6 units max. There was a discussion about a week or two ago on Brownstoner.

admin, you described my sideliner mentality pretty well:

"most of the side-liners i know (renters would be 1st time home buyers) want a place with character instead of a cookie cutter."

These giant condo towers they keep throwing up just don't appeal, for buy or rent. And when you look at what people were buying for the past two or three years, you're just kinda shocked. I guess hindsight is 20-20, but we probably wouldn't live in some of these places at ANY price, much less the prices people were paying.

Any chance we'll see a "stampede" (ie., maybe 20 or 30 would-be buyers) searching out the few remaining new, move-in-ready condos in da 'burg that are 70% sold? I don't think there are that many...

The above-mentioned 90 Guernsey's got 2/6 remaining. (None left at 444 Humboldt or The Modern)

Seven Berry... 4 still available, including 2 ground floor duplexes that would be great if you like ground-floor duplexes and prime location and don't mind high-ish maintenance or subway noise

The McCarren park towers must be pretty close to 70% sold? (Ikon going full steam but only one recorded sale at 20 Bayard and two at the Aurora so far in 2009)

nForth looks almost sold out, but still might be a couple units available

C116 is maybe almost there (5/8 in contract). (BTW, the sq ftg for ground floor units includes the yard. Isn't that a no-no?)

Loftology might have two units left...

djradon, I don't think we'll see them all go in a hurry, but they will go. NV and Rialto have reached 70% I believe. Overall though, you're right, there aren't too many, which means that once those fill up, things might get pretty interesting. I don't think sponsors are in a good spot at that point, and I imagine they'll have to budge first to start moving units in these other buildings. For example, I don't know when 111 Kent is planning on wrapping up construction, but looks like they're getting there. There's no way they get anything close to the original pricing (which was quite high, even compared to peak pricing).