Blmbrg: Manhattan Storefront Vacancies

Y-A-W-N.

Hasn't this been beaten to death? We know!

A Y-A-W-N to your Y-A-W-N. Actually, it hasn't been beaten to death. If you'd followed the various discussion threads you'd no that most of the discussion of Manhattan retail vacancies has been anecdotal ("I saw W number of empty retail properties on the X blocks between Y and Z Streets). The Bloomberg article is one of the first and few published pieces I've seen confirming what "we know". Your posts are always so predictably puerile. Go read "Where the Wild Things Are" or something.

Yeah, I think this is a bit sad as you walk around your neighborhood and I don;t think ti will get any better for at least a year.

cherry, not defending boy wonder at all, but "Where the Wild Things Are" is a pretty cool book.

"Where the Wild Things Are"

I prefer Phantom Tollbooth

First, Where the Wild Things Are, then Phantom Tollbooth, when a bit older.

WB, you're yawns are yawn-inducing. I really don't care if I bore you, in the slightest. If bored, why don't you leave the conversation to those who aren't?

all of america is overbuilt with retail space including believe it or not nyc. every sale that takes place on the web---every sale from amazon and its network of affiliates is a sale that doesn't take place at retail. i don't know about you but the bulk of our non food purchases are on line. when amazon introduced amazon prime and made it work financially, i believe the game changed forever.

this is not a bad thing. this is not about doom and gloom. this is about the end of an era.

"this is about the end of an era."

No offense, but you are a really depressing person. I say this as someone who has, and will continue to have, lifelong relationships with several people who deal with severe and crushing depression on a daily basis. You probably don't even realize how quickly you take the most negactive and dark POV on every subject. Even the questions you pose are with a negative twist.

In all seriousness, if you aren't working towards imrpoving this, you may need to look into it.

"In all seriousness, if you aren't working towards imrpoving this, you may need to look into it."

waverly, I think there are a number of people on this board with this problem. I have never seen such a miserable collection of people drawn to such negativity. I think there are pills for this no?

aboutready, I have to admit, you are quite boring lately. I fell asleep reading your last post.

waverly, it is about the end of an era, a mini-era at least. and if you think about what that era embodied, in its 15-25 or so year period, it doesn't seem so bad that it is ending (Dallas, Dynasty, Housewives, etc.).

Nothing wrong with affluence, but this last bubble (or two) has just been wrong. I don't think cc is hurting, he hasn't been obliterated by the actions of our government and financial institution. I'm not trying to speak for him, but I see in many of his comments an anger that is similar to my own. I too am in a high-income family, we are not hurting (although we could be, conceivably but unlikely, in the near future), and i too am infuriated at the excess that occurred at the expense of the AVERAGE american. but it seems hypocritical, and it's hard to reconcile, because i'm also not happy about 57% taxes when we've only just finally made it. i'm SOOO pissed off, at SOOO many people, and the fact that those who f'ng raped our economy have felt much less in terms of consequences than the general person really pisses me off.

Juice, sweet dreams.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

but are the z's sweet? or are they filled with floral root canals?

JM - I didn't know so many people were anti-dentites.

AR - Don't believe all the garbage you read on the internets. This country has always had wealth and will continue to affluence and unfortunately, too many have-nots. Because media/news jobs are getting cut left & right they are trying to keep the most productive "writers". How do they know who is productive? By the clicks their posts get. So, you have a whole industry that is trying to outdue each other by coming up with more and more outrageous topics, headlines and garbage so that they get more people to click on their posts and so they don't get fired. Try to take some of this with a grain of salt. Just a few months ago they were all pushing excesses, because people wanted to read about that. Things will be fine.

waverly, i called the real estate bubble in 2004. i don't read and accept. i analyze. things will NOT be fine. not in the slightest. and i think you're well aware that i am very careful as to my sources. i don't even do roubini and mish, and bloomberg often makes me queasy. i only refer to their pieces when the issue is mostly one of numbers.

"I didn't know so many people were anti-dentites."

LMAO

aboutready, did you copy that last post from a Barney Frank lecture?

Juice, to think i thought we might be able to get along.

you are very well aware of my views of NYC real estate, at least a couple of years worth. we discussed it often. we disagreed. i'd have to say my view was the more accurate one.

lighten up AR, you know I'm just playing with you

"lifelong relationships with several people who deal with severe and crushing depression on a daily basis."

wow, sorry about that. cc has a point. for sure it doesn't apply to those that despise internet and those that live in more rural areas (many of those don't have good internet yet). but e-commerce affects tax revenue from sales taxes, income tax of the retailer (also retail jobs gone) and prop taxes hidden in the leasing cost. have no idea how the tax model will change though.

take eddie bauer, going through bankruptcy as we speak. they closed their manhattan stores and shifted towards a more e-commerce and only physical stores in cheaper areas. for more expensive items, the shift towards well located show rooms and e-commerce instead of expensive and elephant sized physical stores is here to stay (this will eventually include car dealerships imho, not for grandpas though).

for the consumer is great that those costs disappear. now, how will the city replace the revenue coming from retail? how will buildings replace the tenants and deal with lower rents and higher vacancies...

==========================

the high mark in terms of moronism & worse timing ever goes to abercrombie:

"The venture closed the sale of the retail stake to Carlyle and Crown after signing Abercrombie & Fitch to a lease on 20,000 sf of ground-floor retail space at $2,500/sf. That price exceeded Manhattan's previous record-high retail rent of about $1,700/sf set by Giorgio Armani, which is leasing 40,000 sf at 717 Fifth Ave. A venture of SL Green and Jeff Sutton owns 717 Fifth, which is about three blocks from 666 Fifth.

Abercrombie is also taking about 4,500 sf of lower-priced second floor space. That, along with the ground-floor space, is part of the 40,000 sf that clothier Brooks Brothers will vacate in January. Brooks had housed its flagship store in the building for the past 10 years. The Kushner-Gellert venture bought Brooks out of its lease, under which it had been paying about $850/sf. "

http://www.crenews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=57902&Itemid=1

--------------------------------------

The year 2008 saw the closure of numerous Ann Taylor, Eddie Bauer, Cache, Lane Bryant, Gap and Foot Locker locations throughout the United States, as well as the March filing for bankruptcy protection by the Walt Disney Companies subsidiary the Children's Place.

http://www.law.com/jsp/nylj/PubArticleNY.jsp?id=1202427323578&slreturn=1

I am a depressing person? so...if i would tone it down or better yet just shut up, everything would be fine? my problem is and always has been that i believe that things can be better, a whole lot better but never with happy PC talk. i suggest that your use of the term downturn is a giant understatement and your retort is that I should pursue medication?

do you not believe that there is too much retail space across the country? do you think we should address that by perhaps not building anymore? do you think that sales on the internet are going up? do you think that represents new sales or cannibilization of bricks and mortar?

oh JM, i don't know. but i'm sure that i should be on the offensive when anyone accuses me of cribbing something from barney frank. so it's a damned no matter what scenario, eh? defend yourself and be accused of being too uptight? or be a Barney Frank clone?

"i don't even do roubini and mish"

lol, that sounds so funny. to do, or not to do roubini: that is the question.

yeah, you are right. Much rather be accused of being too uptight. Slow Friday isn't it?

admin, you're right. it's like i don't do sushi. i was just trying to make a point. which i'm sure you're aware of. sources matter.

who is uptight?

sources matter. true, they do. they are necessary (not to a genius though) but not sufficient. it's also about attitude imho. a guy from ms asked me to reveal my sources to see what he wasn't reading, why he missed it. he actually was reading enough stuff to wise up. if you are blind you don't see even if you are facing the right wall. this happens across the board, not only in finance, econ, ..., think love, friendship, ...

admin, even geniuses can't do something with nothing.

wonderbra... enjoy the nocturnal emission.....

Hey, a nice formal welcome back aboutready.

Yo to the regulars, JM, CC, Marco, admin, waverly, hardwood.

me thinkz, wonderbra=shrimpwrappedinbacon=colonelklink... GOD I LOVED IT when he admitted to losing his login password for Colonelklink.... try "stalag13"

wonderbra... enjoy the nocturnal emission.....

LMAO w67thstreet

"admin, even geniuses can't do something with nothing."

they don't need the pre-processing of somebody smarter than them, say roubini or the like. they can do it by themselves from scratch, hence no sources, just plain raw data. it takes time to get to that level though.

Hey there yepyepper my little chihuahua/rottweiler mixed-breed, glad to see your are posting more, starting slowly to recover from your really bad case of hemorrhoids. Please make sure to come home again today so we can apply your cream. And remember, when driving home to West 67th street in your Porsche (does everyone know that w67th has a Porsche???) not to speed or run over any cats.

hey w67th, izn't too much fun to (not) ignore the idiot who has so little taste as to avoid swine and crustaceans?

wow, our favorite pig is back. You must be in a bad mood, seeing that judge that you hate so much moving closer to our US Supreme Court.

i always thought that she'd be confirmed. so was thomas. doesn't really affect my mood.

piss off.

thanks aboutready, remember you too to clean up the sidewalk after you are done pissing

nopigs, and after you take a dump, please do clean.

Well, I have to go now, it is Friday afternoon. yepyepper, you behave and use a soft toilet paper.

aboutready, I KNOW you are a more clever big girl than that. I'll be back, maybe in the mean time you can come up with a better retort to me than one of the one's I've been using with our little doggie friend yepyepper from west 67th street.

"the high mark in terms of moronism & worse timing ever goes to abercrombie"

Great data, but an even better comment! Who among us hasn't felt that moronism and abercrombie were somehow meant to be together. Nice one, admin!

piggie... you little swine broker you.... I bet, if a client wanted to see an apartment.. you'd train it all the way back from Long Beach... enjoy your livelihood.... gotta suck to work for commissions in this market....

cc - I don't want you to shut up at all. Discussion and disagreement are good things.

Remember, just because others view things differently doesn't make it "happy pc talk" and some of your theories are not right. It is not all black & white.

i'm not espousing theories. I've asked a bunch of questions as relate to retail and retailers. The response was: you're depressing. Well, I guess if you're in retail the news is depressing; if you're at Amazon, I think the news is somewhat better.

why will all of these vacant store fronts be refilled?

answers seem to be:

1. well, they always have been (following previous downturns)
2. its nyc you idiot
3. you're depressing.

The concept that Manhattan is NOW overbuilt with retail i don't think is true: think about it: of all the new construction, mostly retail in new buildings replaced retail on older buildings which were down. It's all about pricing. The rents have gone thru the roof as much or more than Coops and Condos. but unlike Coops and/or Condos, retail HAS to work financially. What I mean is that if you buy a Coop or Condo which is "too expensive" as defined by those here who talk about rental value vs carrying costs, it doesn't matter as long as you live in it and can make the payments. But if a retail space is "too expensive", it mean that even if the owners want to keep the place open, they drown in the rent.

A side note: I don't hink i have ever seen Faith with so much inventory:

http://www.faith-consolo.com/properties.htm

i think both are true...prices are way too high but the national decline in retail is real and makes sense. use B&N as an example---clearly an iconic ny retailer. unless they either buy borders and shut most of those stores or borders just goes out of business, B&N has a major problem. book sales overall are flat...i don't know what amazon's book sales are off the top of my head but every dollar that goes there for a book doesn't go to conventional book stores. b&n in trying to diversify into other products but beyond some board game and way overpriced dvd's, there's no much they can do.

30 yrs - I agree with you that retial is not overbuilt. Now, there can certainly be some changes to which stores in the retail space, that's for sure. We will see some shake-out of what has been here, but some of replaces will be good and if we're lucky, it will be an improvement.

Late on Friday...have a good weekend all!

cc - I think you are misreading the real root cause of the problem: look at your example: B&N vs Borders. This is what CAUSED the problem (at least in Manhattan. What we have seen in Manhattan is that retails rents rose to such an extent that the types of store which we had here for 100 years (i.e. unique smaller businesses) couldn't pay the types of rent that they got renewal leases at and got replaced by chain/National category killers who were able to pay these high rents "on the come". Now, these category killers are killing each other, and at the same time more and more small retailers are being forced out because the "market makers" (i.e. the big chain stores) are making a market at a price that NO ONE - EVEN THEM can support.

Now, this doesn't mean that you are wrong about things like book sales being flat, etc. effect the viability of ANY book store in Manhattan, elsewhere B&M or internet. But I don't think that is the root of THIS problem. the root of this problem is a sea change in the way Manahttan retail has been reconfigured (especially price scale wise) so that you end up with only banks, Starbucks / Jamba Juice/ Chipotle/ B&N / CVS et al / Dunkin Donuts (which can't even support places big enough to make donuts on premises) / etc,etc,etc.

The "mallification" has resulted in way too many retail establishments which are in direct competition with each other (fast food, pharmacy "plus", coffee, etc.) and lack of diversification that I think the industry as a whole choked itself off in a way that the big fish gobbled up all the smaller fish, left only other big fish left to fight with, and now category killers are going around killing each other and the chickens have come home to roost.

Or, to put it another way: if you had the types of neighborhood stores you USED to have all over manhattan, they wouldn't be in danger of the B&M vs internet retail, because those stores by and large don't have internet alternatives. Example: do you know ANYONE who would send their shoes out to some internet company to put new heel taps on? But what has happened to the number of shoe repairs shops in Manhattan?

I guess to put it another way, you don't have to have actual monopolies to see the effects of monopolistic type practices to negatively impact a market.

Further flogging this dead horse: how many years has Barnes and Noble been in business? (about 100 years) Out of those 100 years, for how long did they have essentially on store (plus the annex) in Manhattan? how many did they expand to at their peak? How many in the metro area (I remember i used to take the subway in from Queens to go there, so the outside Manhattan stores do/did compete with what used to be just the flagship). In fact, i think a LOT of stores opening outside of Manhattan branches diluted their brand by simply shifting sales for the manhattan stores to the suburban one's, and people had been and still would have traveled to Manhattan had they not expanded to the suburban locations.

precisely.

i think we are actually agreeing.

this is the intersection of a bunch of different things---oddly enough, none of which have anything to do with the so called pullback but are much magnified by it.

there are too retailers across the country...too many starbucks, etc.

we've been talking about the internet so long that we've gotten bored...meanwhile almost 10 yrs later (depending on when you start counting) its about to blow away newspapers, network tv and yes retailing.

I know Starbucks announced quite a while back closing 600 locations 600!!! Which is about 10% of their total number of outlets 9and this was before the financial crisis news hit - it was Q2?Q3 2008.

Once the RE bubble truly pops - that will be the best stimulus this city could ever get. Low cost overhead / low cost rent - all that additional disposable income saved from the monthly rent would then be freed up to consume / reinvest in business! If the bears are right, this could be thousands of dollars a month per household and who knows how much for businesses. Just the shot in the arm the doctor ordered! Think of all the taxes the city could rake in on people renewing their spending on dinners out and shows and consumables and feeling good that they have more money in their pockets!

...just a thought. Oh forget it - I forgot that "the president" said on these boards that if rents go down and foreclosures lower property values, crime will make the city a cesspool. I guess we have not choice but to inflate those values to prop 'em up! (as I silently smack my head behind the keyboard....)

because the topic fascinates wonderboy so much:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/nyregion/21vacancies.html

retail vacancies will continue to rise.

"Juice, to think i thought we might be able to get along.

you are very well aware of my views of NYC real estate, at least a couple of years worth. we discussed it often. we disagreed. i'd have to say my view was the more accurate one."

You are being way too kind.

And how disingenuous is it to, after being proven 100% wrong, so say "well, its boring".

Folks deny it for months or even years, and fight tooth and nail, and when they finally acquiesce, it suddenly becomes "boring".

I'm not sure which is more pathetic, leaving the board when you're proven wrong, or pretending its suddenly "boring".

do you people ever take a step back to realize how ridiculous you sound? we're in a recession, a deep one, and certain stores are closing. that's what happens. I notice no one posted on the fact that Best Buy and Nordstrom just announced that they're taking on previously vacated space at Union Square. Or closer to my own neighborhood (UES), there are two large space (NW Corner of 86th & 2nd), (NE corner of 84th & Lex), that are being renovated for new tenants. I'm not saying that things are good - duh, its tought, but you all think this is somehow THE END, of some idyllic life as we knew it is preposterous. This is NYC - we don't stand still. There are 50 people who would take every vacant shop if the landlord gets his price down to the right level.
AR is the worst - you're a dilletante who spends her whole day criticizing other people's lifestyle's, and posting links to articles you barely understand - it's like you just discovered the internet. You can directly trace the downturn of these SE to the time she started posting

You mean three years ago?

printer, agree with your general take, but I think few people on here are saying the world is ENDING. aboutready's not a dilettante and has been around here for quite a while - her input is welcomed here. By the way, you can see how long someone's been on SE by seeing what their user ID number is in the "ignore this person" link. Can be useful in certain instances (anyone below 15,000 or so has been here for quite a while and there's been a flood of newbies in the last 8-10 months).

"do you people ever take a step back to realize how ridiculous you sound? we're in a recession, a deep one, and certain stores are closing. that's what happens"

Agreed... problem is, you're saying it like everyone gets it. There are folks still denying that we're in a deep recession, and other folks who just don't get what that means.

For some, perhaps this is the color they need to finally understand.

Personally, I just find it interesting to see who survives and who doesn't.... a lot of these could affect me. (payard, no! best buy on 14th would be good for me)

> Best Buy and Nordstrom

And its nordstrom rack, not nordstrom. Fairly different stores (we're talking about the discount/closeout one).

Aboutready is not a dilettante. She is a very smart and valuable poster. However, Printer has a point that some of the rhetoric on the board is a bit over the top. It isn't the end, and it's true that businesses that can afford it are repositioning themselves for the recovery by taking advantage of recession-wrought opportunities. AR doesn't post end-of-the world doggerel, even if others respond to it as such.

I still think there's a possibility that we might be headed for a W-shaped downturn, but even Roubini seems to have backed off of that idea. I don't pretend to understand where the resilience is coming from, but I can't deny that there is more of it than I would have anticipated. Mostly I'm staying out of these debates, since I am just very confused.

evnyc, the resilience is coming from the huge amounts of liquidity being provided by the central banks, and the fact that accounting rules have been weakened enabling banks to retain bad assets. with excess money in the system, that money needs a place to live, and thus oil is still inexplicably over $60/barrel and the stock market hums along. take a look at the stiglitz video i put up in important economic links the other day, it's an hour but very comprehensive and explanatory. stephen roach, head of MS asia, had a good, brief interview with CNBC the other day. i'll try to find it.

printer you make me laugh. i'd hardly think i dabble, most complain that i'm at this full time. and my comprehension is quite good, i assure you. as alanhart and bjw point out, bless their hearts, i've been at this for years. i'm not saying that stores aren't opening, i'm saying that net stores are closing. i'm very impressed by the resilience of some, particularly small businesses, who open in this challenging environment. i'm a small business owner myself, and the obstacles are huge.

10022, they are very different beasts, Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack. The Rack is essentially another Filenes or TJ Maxx (although the Rack does have its own lines), and except for the one in downtown Seattle, which is awesome, they generally don't add much. another best buy does nothing for me, absolutely nothing, but i did quite like virgin.

printer, do you ever take a step back to realize how ridiculous you sound? There are 50 people who would take every [insert name of every item for sale in the world] if the [insert name of seller of item} gets his price down to the right level.

I tell you what. Take every ten dollar bill out of your wallet right now and I'll give you 9 dollars a piece for them. See? The recession is over because of the unlimited liquidity I am providing.

evnyc, here it is. and there are others as well, Martin Feldstein (bloomberg article, covered yesterday i think by calculated risk), gary shilling (can't recall where i saw the video, think it came from bloomberg though), among others. most severe recessions have at least one quarter in which gdp increases. this is not the first time green shoots have been noticed.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/roach-the-financial-crisis-isnt-over/

great links aboutready

this town won't turn around until prices come down resulting in some real affordability

"However, Printer has a point that some of the rhetoric on the board is a bit over the top. It isn't the end, "

Agreed, there is lots of rhetoric. Of course, most of it seems to be folks claiming that everyone else is saying "its the end", when that simply isn't the case.

Its a classic strawman argument, and its being ascribed to folks who just didn't say it. All so bulls won't have to admit they were wrong. "Yes, it went down 30% [which is beyond most bear projections from a year back] but it didn't go down 99%, so you're all wrong!"

I got called "extreme" yesterday by one of the the bull clan. And I'm the guy who has said OVER and OVER again, its not the end of the world, I could see myself buying in 12-18 months, I'm bearish on stocks (well, I was more so in the 8ks), NYC will recover, etc. etc.

Its this nonsense of "you all say the world is ending" kind of lines that are the biggest nonsense rhetoric of them all.

"Its a classic strawman argument, and its being ascribed to folks who just didn't say it. All so bulls won't have to admit they were wrong."

You're right, but you can't have it both ways - the "buy now or be priced out forever" trope is also a classic strawman being ascribed to folks who just didn't say it.

"I got called "extreme" yesterday by one of the the bull clan."

I'm a "bull" now?! Find one thread where I'm clearly bullish on real estate in this city. Otherwise, eat crow.

"You're right, but you can't have it both ways - the "buy now or be priced out forever" trope is also a classic strawman being ascribed to folks who just didn't say it."

You seem to have trouble with the definition of a strawman. Its not a strawman if someone actually made the claim.... and it has been said multiple times by multiple people (if you include variants like perfitz'). Ascribing it to someone who didn't say would be an error, of course.... are you claiming that is done regularly?

Certainly NOWHERE near the number of folks saying "doom and gloom" and "end of the world".... including one that just said it.

Not to mention, it gets corrected a whole bunch of times, and folks don't listen.

I think it takes a whole lot of slant to pretend they are the same thing.

"I'm a "bull" now?! Find one thread where I'm clearly bullish on real estate in this city. Otherwise, eat crow"

You can pretend, but you are clearly in that clan. "Clearly"... of course not, I've pointed out several times that you do your best to pretend you're not... but its a thin veil... hell, you and Juice congratulating each other just minutes ago.

Yes, you're absolutely in that camp.... with more certainty of you claiming that I do the "same thing as" SteveF.

nyc, I see the "buy now or be priced out forever" as a taunt from you (and a few others) FAR more than it was used by "bulls." It's disningenuous, just as the "end of the world" stuff is. I don't think you're an "end of the world" kind of guy at all, though they are out there.

"You can pretend, but you are clearly in that clan. "Clearly"... of course not, I've pointed out several times that you do your best to pretend you're not... but its a thin veil... hell, you and Juice congratulating each other just minutes ago.
Yes, you're absolutely in that camp.... with more certainty of you claiming that I do the "same thing as" SteveF."

This is CLASSIC. A fine example of you trying to paint someone as a "bull" simply because they disagree with you on certain things. Your basic slander. I ask for a shred of evidence (forget even having a fairly consistent bullish take) and the best you come up with is "thin veil"? Solid work all around. Not bullish right now, sorry.

"This is CLASSIC. A fine example of you trying to paint someone as a "bull" simply because they disagree with you on certain things. Your basic slander. I ask for a shred of evidence (forget even having a fairly consistent bullish take) and the best you come up with is "thin veil"? Solid work all around. Not bullish right now, sorry. "

No, I've just spent enough time documenting it, didn't think anyone needed it again... as much as you sing and dance and pretend you don't know what I'm talking about.

"Not bullish right now, sorry. "

So, you were bullish when you should not have been, and now that things are down, you're *less* bullish. Wow. incredible.

"I don't think you're an "end of the world" kind of guy at all, though they are out there."

So, are you taking back your claim?

"No, I've just spent enough time documenting it, didn't think anyone needed it again... as much as you sing and dance and pretend you don't know what I'm talking about."

No other way to say it - utter lies. I have not been bullish at any point since I've been on this board (and that's way longer than you, brother). You have yet to post a shred of evidence that says otherwise, and yet you pontificate. Now that's incredible.

"So, are you taking back your claim?"
I never said you were an "end of the world" kind of guy, ever. People like anon3 are.