Is it foolish to accept no rent cut?

i think you are pointing out the "sticky" factor of rents moving down. would suggest 3-4 weeks of fairly intense research/looking before coming to any conclusions.

I have found 3-4 3br places for 4600-4900 in better hoods - 60-90th streets.

But the landlord knows the move is a hassle and costly as well. Darn this summer uptick in the real estate market. NYC is gonna tank again the moment I sign the renewal.

4k? wtf? what are you relocating? a museum? "We are considering renewing $5100 lease at Avalon on 110th." how empty is that building? how much would they take from a new tenant they have to convince to pay that moving costs towards avalon?

they play with your moving costs (not only $ wise, it's a pain in the ass to move). to negotiate try to estimate their loss if you move out, and ask for a discount that is smaller than that, but not by much.

The thing is - they *have* rented every 3 br in the building. So they got us there. I don't think they will all stay full, but nobody cares about my macroeconomic projections.

I guess the 3 br market is a lot tighter than 2 br.

call their bluff.... come over the top and ask about what are the necessary steps to get deposit back and ask for mover referrals... and f'n look for other 3bdrms..... in this market you're holding 2 aces in the hole... they got a 5 and 6 off suit...

Wow it would be humiliating to climb down from a direct threat like this... but I guess I could make my wife do that.

good cop, bad cop. she could say that she beat some sense into you!

She is mean enough to be the bad cop on second thought... and they probably have seen this flick before... but I guess it's worth a go!

I am in a similar boat for October. I think It depends-- I believe I could rent elsewhere for at least $1600/MO. LESS. My mover estimate is $4K (pack - move- unpack). So if they do not reduce -- the move is a must and I can not only nreak even in less than three months, but I can go on trips for the difference!!

i would call his bluff. but of course i would only do that if you had real comps that you can share with him that prove that he is being unreasonable by staying at 5100. my landlord called another person's bluff for a unit beneath mine and now its been vacant for 2 months. remember that they have a lot to lose as well by not lowering.

do your homework. show them real comps that support your lower ask price and then present it (remember also that most asking prices for rentals are negotiable by atleast 10% now). and if they don't accept, move happily into a better place.

yeah it would be "humiliating" to back off from a threat like that, but you can blush all the way to the bank to deposit the $1600 x 12 months = $19,200 cash you will be saving!

of course a move is a hassle. curious - who at the bldg said no to the cut, some lower level phone answerer or the guy/gal who signs your lease? mfox, sK, col and W67 collectively form your argument. let us know how you make out.

"The thing is - they *have* rented every 3 br in the building. So they got us there. I don't think they will all stay full, but nobody cares about my macroeconomic projections.

I guess the 3 br market is a lot tighter than 2 br."

-----------------

yep, a lot tighter. so chances are people that rent 3br cannot rent a 2br. if the lease comes up soon i'm afraid you are out of luck. renting during the biggest housing bubble and not even being able to enjoy lower rents when they finally come has to suck. if you do renew, do it for the shortest period. if you get lucky, the RE situation in NYC will get much worse by then.

romary... there are over 600 listings for 3bdrms under $5K in Manhattan on SE alone........ ya thinkz.... maybe maybe maybe maybe... there ONE f'n DESPERADO or DESPERADETTE that'll take 10% off the BAT.... and there are plenty of $4K units in that 600....

true that.

I live in the same building Avalon and just recently got a mailing from Related that they will pay your moving fees.

nicely done sideline! renters united... fighting the stickiness of the collapse in rents that is coming. i like it!

Sigh - been looking at the 3BR's and most of them are fake; two-bedroom places converted into 3BR by lopping off a corner from the living room. It's the real mgmt that turned down my rent cut proposal - I did include several comp examples in the letter. Several genuine 3BR's south of 100th at 4'800 or below.

Moving is just genuinely painful after just 12 months. Particularly since they are now offering TWO months off to new 2 BR renters here.

bondirotta: did you see any of the 3 BR? Are they nicer than yours?

If they are asking 4800, why not offer 4500? You will still come out ahead even if you factor moving costs.

Like columbiacounty suggest, I recommend that you do intensive analysis for a couple weeks. (ie proper comps, researching competitive alternatives, etc). Would you consider East Harlem? There is a Glenwood building there and they posted a real 3 BR/2BA on their site for $2929 (net effective). They have a shuttle to the 86th street subway but I don't know how often it runs. I think Glenwood buildings are some of the nicest rentals I've seen, and their leasing office is great. I know this location is not for everyone, but if you are open to it, the building/units are nice (I've seen several GW buildings and they seem to have the similar amenities, finishes, etc). I can recommend the person I worked with - he sent me layouts, updates, etc. If you are interested let me know.

I sympathize with your situation b/c ours is similar and if our LL is not willing to negotiate with us (I have seen similar units rent for 10-15% lower than what we are paying + free months), then we may have to look elsewhere.

Good luck!

this is one of the things this board should really be about. lets help these people.

Well - it's a brand new building with albino peacocks in the backyard. (Cathedral park.) So you don't get that necessarily in other comps. I guess that's what they call "an intangible".

110 street and they won't negotiate...send them your non-renewal letter and see what happens...it won't cost you $4k to move...i moved from florida and it cost me under $2k with flatrate movers.

the reason my move cost $4k is that I had them pack and move me and unpack. i think if you want to compare moving versus not moving -- you should offset or somehow value your time.

that moving costs seem to me unnecessarily high, but then i would prefer not to delegate hte packing nor unpacking. control freak i may be, but i know better what to do with the stuff and what i really don't want broken.

Hi Bondirotta,

If you decide to move - I just did a search in my company database, and I'm only seeing 5 true three-bedrooms on the UWS for under $5000 that aren't garbage.

SE may show 600, but the vast majority of those are either converted, simply a 2 bedroom where the broker lied, or a dump.

Of the 5 that I have, two are no fee. Both doorman buildings, one for $4800 and one for $4300. Both below 100th st. When is your move-in date? The $4800 is available July 18th, and the $4300 is for Sept 1. I have only gone into detail on the no fee apts as I see you are worried about the fees moving, and a broker fee would further complicate that.

If you decide to move and are interested in my help (it doesn't cost you anything!), feel free to contact me.

Best,

Shea Thomas
sthomas AT bondnewyork DOT com

I moved 3 sets of china, antiques, artwork, 3br, clothes, 200+boxes plus 6 tvs and NOTHING broke. I assure you, I am a control freak, but i also recognize when others do something all the time they are more efficient than I am...

manhattanfox - LOL, seriously, 6 TV's? Are there enough rooms for them? 1 per bedroom=3+LR+kitchen+dining room? There are some houses in the suburbs that don't have as many tv's!

Wow $4,000 to move, I just moved and it cost me about $450 with the supplies and I thought that was really expensive!

bondirotta - tons depends on your situation. I presume you need a 3-bedroom because you have kids, which makes moving that much more painful. I also presume if you're paying $5100 in rent, your family has a good income, and thus the extra few hundred a month is not make-or-break.

We will almost certainly face the same situation in december, and here's how I look at it: Do whatever it takes (yell and scream, show comps, good cop/bad cop, threaten, play nice, etc.) to get my management company's best offer. Then compare to the apartment I would move to if I left. If the difference is more than $800-$1000/month, then we'll probably move. If less, grit our teeth and stay. Moving a family sucks, in my opinion. Last time we moved, we basically lost 2 months of enjoyment - the last month with all the packing, looking, scheduling, stressing, etc., and the fist month with unpacking, setting up cable, bills, decorating, etc. Plus the move cost $$. Plus we ended up paying rent on both places for a few overlapping days, since we couldn't get them to match exactly.

Because of the above, I've more or less resigned myself to the fact that we'll probably overpay to stay next year (within reason, as mentioned above). I think of it as our small price to pay to allow us to get a great deal buying in late 2010 or early 2011.

If you do decide to move, check out 275 West 96th Street. Our friends live there, we really like the building. They have a bunch of 3-bedrooms for rent, asking prices are steep, but may be negotiable.

Your question, is, is it "foolish?" Well, it's not foolish because they are running a business. It does seem fundamentally unfair to offer the incentive to newcomers but exclude renewing tenants.

Here's a not-very useful list of some uws straight rental buildings. 5100 does not seem that high comparatively speaking. We are in the same boat, have been looking for a long time.

http://www.cityrealty.com/new-york-city/apartment/rentals/for-rent/directory/west-side

Re: 4K movers....I'd call other large, reputable residential companies and get an estimate, and from that estimate, then make them an offer. Know for a fact moving companies are also feeling the economic downturn and are willing to negotiate their prices...especially if you can time your move offpeak in the middle of the month, ie not end/beginning of month. Might be able to save yourself 1 or 2K at least, even with pack/unpack/insurance, etc. Also save a bunch by buying your own materials, boxes, tape, etc. Look on Craigslist, people are always recycling their perfectly usable moving boxes.

I think you'll be okay either way. There were some people paying 3k a month pre-crisis for luxury 1BR's. I routinely see luxury 2BR's for 5k. Judging from a lack of obvious alternatives, the price seems pretty fair. It's still your prerogative to shop around though.

Having just seen a real 3 bedroom at the Sessanta with an ask of about $7350 on a low floor, sticking with a rent of $5100 doesn't look so bad. A plus for you is that the apartment is pretty new and nicely done. I saw a 3 there a few months ago and though the floorplan didn't work for me, the finishes were nice, esp the bathrooms! Having seen a number of pre-wars on the uws, I want nice bathrooms and usually the more up-to-date the better. Moving is hugely disruptive and I would think hard about it. In your situation, my first reaction would be to move, but knowing the emotional price as well as the financial would give me pause about acting rashly. If you found a comparable space for a meaningful discount, I would consider it. Oh I long for the simple days when I lived in my very own house!

" Darn this summer uptick in the real estate market"

Summer uptick?

You might have a few more people looking to rent than pre-summer, but don't forget that HUGE numbers of leases are ending. There is no wave of new folks to NYC to take up all the vacant apartments... but tons of folks are not renewing.

Demand might be up a bit, but supply is off the charts.

Show the guy the 18% down stats.

ha, just an hour later, lookie here...

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/07/21/market_reports_manhattan_rentals_take_summer_off.php

Manhattan "appears to be missing its summer peak"

so much for that...

At Tower 67, i can tell you that units there are going very fast on the back of a brisk summer season. converted 3brs that were going for sub 6 (in april / may) are now listed at low 7 / high 6. i'm hoping its a blip and that when my existing place is up for renewal later this year, things have reverted, but right now, i think the market has run a bit.

i want a doorman, elevator, renovated unit with w/d in a prime area, which complicates things a bit. but wanted to point out at least in one area of manhattan, things are holding up, although still down a good bit from the peak.

similarly, i looked at sessanta a couple months ago and a 3br low floor was going for sub 6. so they have also gotten more ambitious on pricing as well...

i'm sure i'll get flamed by the conspiracy theorists who say i'm an agent, so flame away. just trying to pass on some data points.

FWIW, We have moved a 3BR multiple times in the last 4 years (in the city) and it usually ends up around $4K for pack, move, unpack and a good tip. Multiple companies too (and multiple estimates each time), so it was not just one mover taking advantage.

> At Tower 67, i can tell you that units there are going very fast on the back of a brisk summer season.

Another broker buys his own bs.

Rents are down yet again (report just came out) and activity is still declining.

> just trying to pass on some data points.

Time for you to learn what data is.

so predictable. ok. you're right, as you always are...

the OP asked whether he should accept no rent cut. On 110th street, i agree that he'd be foolish to do so. the conversation then evolved into discussion of rental properties in UWS broadly. i'm just passing on what i've seen 1st hand, rather than sending along a list of 600 3 beds that haven't been screened, which imo wasn't very helpful. i would've thought that a few price points for a very nice building in a prime location in the UWS would be helpful, but what do i know?

oh, by the way, way to pick out the most bullish statement in my post and attacking it. I guess you missed the part where i said the units as currently priced are overpriced. but the fact is, the converted 3br were rented very quickly at high $5k. and they are now languishing at low $7k. personally, i think it will be interesting to see where it shakes out and how much of the bid at $5k was driven by a summer influx of new people. i thought i was being pretty balanced and realistic about the rental market. but, i guess the data didn't support the doomsday argument, therefore, it had to be generated by a broker.

much more valuable to read your report with generic pricing information, as opposed to granular details about individual properties.

"much more valuable to read your report with generic pricing information, as opposed to granular details about individual properties."

Yes, because nothing tells the story of a market like anecdotes! Why care about things like science or economics, some putz said he once saw his lunch go up, not down.

Seriously, did you just try and slag market data???

You must be a broker.

sorry, not a broker. i just don't find data that paints a broad stroke very useful because i have very specific requirements. like i said, i want a doorman, elevator and w/d. i don't really care what price movement has been for the entire market when it includes areas i don't want to live in and walk-ups / non-doormen. so yes, i find data about individual buildings that i'm interested in living in more relevant.

it's the same reason in 2007 - early 2008, i largely ignored sales data that showed UWS trading up substantially, when it included stuff like 15 CPW and TWC, which traded up ridiculously. I can't afford those units so their price appreciation was irrelevant to me. my "anecdotal" data showed that sales for units in my much lower price range were stagnating and not really selling as quickly anymore, which was instrumental in my decision not to buy.

the argument i'm making works both ways. if you were a scientist, you'd know that looking at high level sets of data without digging deeper into the granular details is useless, if not dangerous. like, by the way, did you know that the winning percentage of all MLB teams this year is .500? oops, equally useless stat, huh?

"the argument i'm making works both ways. if you were a scientist, you'd know that looking at high level sets of data without digging deeper into the granular details is useless, if not dangerous. like, by the way, did you know that the winning percentage of all MLB teams this year is .500? oops, equally useless stat, huh?"

bigdude, great point, but you're arguing with someone who won't back down, no matter how many ways you show him 2+2=4. The broker accusations on this site are a common thing, unfortunately , but they're no better nor any more accurate than the "bitter renter" bs. You'll find the accusers are the ones losing credibility pretty fast.

the funny thing is, i'm actually a bear on the market. have been looking at buying since 05 and still haven't pulled the trigger. for a few years, i was feeling pretty dumb, but i guess my patience was justified and i'm still waiting.

but, it doesn't belie the fact that for a unit i want in a building i want, things are still renting well. and frankly, at levels that surprise me. i was thinking they would come closer to mid $5k, but that hasn't been the case yet... you can call me a realistic bear, in that i think the market should be lower, but realize it isn't yet.

"bigdude, great point, but you're arguing with someone who won't back down, no matter how many ways you show him 2+2=4.

And you just met the other guy who does exactly the same.... who of course, won't admit it.

bigdude, I hear ya. It can be frustrating when things move at different speeds than you anticipate, but as someone who went through the very same thing, I can tell you your patience will eventually be rewarded. It's important to keep things on as even a keel as possible and not get too swayed by either the steveFs or the nyc10022s of the world.

"The broker accusations on this site are a common thing, unfortunately , but they're no better nor any more accurate than the "bitter renter" bs"

Actually, they're a lot more accurate. They're often true. Its not meant to be an insult, its an attempt to call out motivations.

"Bitter renter" is always wrong now.... given renters were shown to be right.

Playing "neutral" between two imbalanced sides is not being neutral, as much as bjw likes to pretend. Its like being "neutral" when Hitler came to town.

Its pure slant in those cases.

"sorry, not a broker. i just don't find data that paints a broad stroke very useful because i have very specific requirements. like i said, i want a doorman, elevator and w/d. i don't really care what price movement has been for the entire market when it includes areas i don't want to live in and walk-ups / non-doormen. so yes, i find data about individual buildings that i'm interested in living in more relevant."

Except, of course, they provide the stats by area and by doorman, etc. as well.

Whoops.

"Playing "neutral" between two imbalanced sides is not being neutral, as much as bjw likes to pretend. Its like being "neutral" when Hitler came to town.
Its pure slant in those cases."

The fact that you're using Hitler in any kind of analogy on this shows how nutty your reasoning is. This is why you're frequently just not very credible.

I'll take that over where you are... always not credible.

Of course, the analogy is spot on. There are few things more slanted trying to pretend uneven sides are even.

> by either the steveFs or the nyc10022s of the world.

And there you did it again.

Its the worst kind of slant.

nyc, you're in the minority there - others have certainly pointed out your lack of credibility here. Sorry.

"There are few things more slanted trying to pretend uneven sides are even."

Blatantly untrue - extreme views such as yours are very often biased and lead to poor conclusions. Anyone who's read a little Boethius knows this.

nyc10022. you are a frickin' genius. you're absolutely right, all i do to differentiate buildings is look at a) whether it has a doorman and b) what broad area it is located in. pray tell me, what is classified as "UWS" in this report? oh, never mind, i looked it up. it stretches from at least 60th - 98th and from CPW to Riverside. so, a "mere" ~200 square block area, a vast majority of which i have no interest in living in.

for s&g, let's look at this report... focusing on UWS 2-br with doormen...
- June 2009 - July 2009 - up ~$230
- July 2008 - July 2009 - down ~$50
- Peak - July 2009 - down ~$300

what exactly are you arguing with me about? rents have ticked up slightly in the past month. they have come down slightly year over year and are down ~5-6% from peak. it's an area that has held up remarkably well versus other areas. what are you not understanding even within your broadly defined dataset?

dude. pick your battles. you're losing this one. badly.

"Except, of course, they provide the stats by area and by doorman, etc. as well."

aside from whether it is a studio, 1BR, or 2BR (which is kind of a necessary descriptor), what else does the report provide that necessitates the use of "etc." above?

WHOOPS!

i wouldn't say 10022 lacks credibility as i do agree with many of his points, but he's a bit dogmatic in his belief and can't take even a neutral viewpoint, let alone a dissenting view point.

> nyc, you're in the minority there - others have certainly pointed out your lack of credibility here.

LOL. uuh, yeah... keep telling yourself you're the credible one. Ignore everyone who has pointed out your incorrect statements and slants.

Suuure, keep telling yourself that.

> "There are few things more slanted trying to pretend uneven sides are even."
> Blatantly untrue - extreme views such as yours are very often biased and lead to poor conclusions.
> Anyone who's read a little Boethius knows this.

First off, you actually don't even address the point.

Second, if you think my views are extreme, then you know even less than I gave you credit for.

You've made this claims several times, and you've been mistaken each time. Claiming I said "never buy" was only the most recent of these mistakes.

That you think I'm the extreme is just really funny.

Either you're lying, you're slanted, or you just don't read very well.

"nyc10022. you are a frickin' genius. you're absolutely right, all i do to differentiate buildings is look at a) whether it has a doorman and b) what broad area it is located in. pray tell me, what is classified as "UWS" in this report? oh, never mind, i looked it up. it stretches from at least 60th - 98th and from CPW to Riverside. so, a "mere" ~200 square block area, a vast majority of which i have no interest in living in. "

Why are you assuming that there is only one report? There are numerous, and they cut different ways.

> Blatantly untrue - extreme views such as yours are very often biased and lead to poor conclusions.

BTW, this is also horrible, horrible logic to apply. Not the first time...

fair enough, i only looked at the main report. but overall, the report i did look at shows the uws is doing ok, which was really what my data points showed before you jumped down my throat.

It was your "brisk summer season" - shown to be quite the opposite - which I was reacting to, not the anecdotal data.

gotcha. like i said, i'm reasonable. fair point. that was really meant to apply specifically to Tower 67, and not the rest of manhattan or even the UWS. but overall it does seem the UWS is holding up well, which is frustrating for me as my lease comes up for renewal in a couple months.

bigdude, hasn't Tower 67 been highly priced relative to the UWS market from opening day? my husband lived there in the mid-80s and i recall it being very expensive relatively even then.

"LOL. uuh, yeah... keep telling yourself you're the credible one. Ignore everyone who has pointed out your incorrect statements and slants."

Yes, that list includes you and... mutombo? Nice work. Your views are extreme in that every single point you make ties back to: real estate in this city is screwed. ANY dissenting piece of information, viewpoint, argument, etc., you jump on like a rabid dog. And you try to spin that as not extreme? Sorry, that's just misguided. SteveF does the exact same thing on the other side; that you can't see it shows how blind you are. And yet you pile on the insults as if it made your case stronger - hint: it doesn't.

aboutready - yup, it is at a higher price point. rents are clearly down off the peak on this one, but have held in decently the past year. and they've actually raised meanginfully over the past couple months. who knows whether they can hold though.

bigdude, are you seeing the increased rents in 2BRs only, or is it across the board? How much of an increase are we talking about here anyway?

i'm looking at the converted 3's, so 2br + alcove / br... in april / may, they were available for sub $6k. can't remember exactly the pricing. they were snapped up immediately. i heard there are now some similar lines (d / g) that are now priced above $7k. not sure how other lines are being priced.

keep in mind about 3BRs that those, almost by definition, mean that there's kids living there. which means that the school calendar really puts pressure on renters, which could explain why 3BRs get snapped up.

if you don't have kids, bondi, i'd suggest that if you decide to move, consider the place that offers you the most months of free rent, which would push your renewal date (hopefully) past Sept 1. That means that you'll be negotiating in a slower time of year next time around.

that's a good point. lots of kids in teh building. squarely in ps199 territory.

> And you try to spin that as not extreme?

BJW, time for you to learn the definition of the word "extreme".

Hmmm... my predictions for NYC RE are better than quite a lot of folks on this board, my predictions for the economy and stocks are definitely better than average for the board.

That you call that "extreme" and pretend its the same thing as what SteveF does just shows how slanted you really are.

And you can lie and say its just me, but that just shows how slanted you are.

and given that you have gotten a number of my views completely backward, I think you just need to stop telling other people what their views are, like I accused you of yesterday.

Oh wait, that wasn't me, that was someone else, too.

Your predictions? You showed up on this board not even a year ago! Priceless. You love to pat yourself on the back. And you're right, it's not just you, but you're easily the biggest offender and you never seem to get tired of jumping down people's throats. I'm not slanted, I'm just trying to weed through all the posts with clear agendas and biases (you, sledge, alpine, steveF) to get to those that are actually interested in how things really are (see: waverly, kylewest, aboutready, tenemental, divvie, JuiceMan, urbandigs, etc.).

$5100 sounds pretty reasonable to me if you like your apartment. If you move, you might be able to save a few bucks but is it worth the hastle? Perhaps you can ask for a lease renewal that gives you the right to terminate on 60 days notice. This way if the market tanks you can then renogiate or move.
PS. Stay away from the cookies at The Hungarian Pastry shop. I am convinced they are made in Chine.