Recession in U.S. May Have Ended

great post thx jsmith....

This was posted several days ago....

SteveF, exactly what's "great" about the repost?

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Components of the index of leading economic indicators are signaling the worst U.S. recession in five decades may be over now, not three to six months from now.

Isn't that great news nyc10022..?

We now have positive moves in the indicators of the real side of the economy,” such as decreasing jobless claims and increasing building permits, the Conference Board’s Ozyildirim said.

that's even better news about the decreasing jobless claims!....right nyc10022...?

Are a substantial number of other key indicators aligned with this finding, or is this just Whack-A-Mole?

> that's even better news about the decreasing jobless claims!....right nyc10022...?

For the US, sure. For my stocks, great!

For NYC... uh, nope... stil getting worse here.

Only two more years of declines in Manhattan! Yippee!

The answer is that yes, a substantial number of key indicators aligned and it is not the carnival game known as Whack-A-Mole. Although, on a side note, the economists did enjoy a friendly competition of whack-a-mole after completing their survey. However, some little kid won.

recession may have indeed ended. NYC RE deflation continues. sorry if you got caught long up here.

Also from Bloomberg:

Summers Urges Banks to Lend More, Says Growth Pace ‘in Doubt’

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- White House National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers chastised some banks that received government aid for not doing enough to reduce foreclosures, while declaring that next year’s economic growth pace is “in doubt.”

Summers said the U.S. economy is “no longer in freefall,” and poised for recovery starting this year. The former Treasury secretary and Harvard University president cited recent increases in exports, and said fiscal-stimulus and foreclosure- relief programs will create a “gathering force” in the coming months.

Income Growth

Even so, income growth may not “resume in the near term,” he told Bloomberg editors and reporters.

“The pace of growth next year, I think, is very much in doubt and difficult to predict,” Summers said. That “will depend crucially on our effectiveness in implementing the programs that have been legislated” and what Congress may do on health care, financial regulation and energy, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ae2ts7VZVTs8

> recession may have indeed ended. NYC RE deflation continues. sorry if you got caught long up here.

Only took four years after '87 for manhattan re to keep sinking.

The bubble popped, it aint gonna bounce until its stops deflating.

nyc10022...you really sound like such a genuine, high quality, cares so much for others, individual. You must have so many friends.

Why, yes, I do.

But there is no need to go personal on a message board.

Don't change the subject, just admit you were wrong.

Are you guys nuts or what? Inventory is getting sucked up, stocks are moving higher, fear is gone and the recession probably ended in June. Prices are moving higher as I type this.(footnote, I follow 1-bds and studios).

Do you think we will hit Dow 9k first or under 10k inventory, first?..........ohhh now I hear the crickets :)

Wait, you're now tracking Manhattan prices to stocks again?

ROTFL.

> Prices are moving higher as I type this

Except the stats show yet another quarter down.

whoooooooooooooooops.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1132752161iuzhS&Record=6

See above. that's the tsunami of inventory we would need to drop prices 25% similarto what happened in the late 80s.

That combined with 5X more crime and a nasty little recession also.

nyc10022, all you can do is name-call. SE readers realize this too. But thx again for keeping my posts on top!

nyc10022...what happened?? Don't like the chart, arguments? hello?..........ya I thought so.

ignoring steveF it's hard to respond with any specificity, but he might want to check out the CNBC interview of July 16th with MS's head of asia, Roach. and today bloomberg has feldstein opining that there are ample signs that a double dip W is in the formation, with an inventory-correction growth in the 3rd quarter followed by further distress in the fourth. actually, that's what Roach and Shilling said also.

and since the Conference Board's coincident indicators show that 46 states enjoyed economic contraction in June, and unemployment numbers are still rising, i have my doubts.

"may have ended". wow thats some strong wording. i may go buy an apartment now. or i may not.

LOL

I come back and the lemmings are still running around thinking that the recession is over (forget about the worst being over).

Looks like the pied pipers at mass media are doing an awesome job!

Oh I can't wait to see what happens when these lemmings finally figure out that the emperor has no clothes! That's usually when it's too late... as in, while they are in free-fall into the cauldron of fire.

I've seen many of them fall last year. The don't post here anymore (hello Spunky?) But there are always new lemmings who line up and march to the pied piper's beckoning to the cauldron of fire (hello SteveF?). When the real crisis hits, aka the double dip with the second dip being extra painful, they will be swept away in an instant, having no clue what happened.

Let's see if the new batch of lemmings stick around or disappear like the old batch.

jasonkyle, there has NEVER been a better time to buy. i may buy two or three. or more.

oops, it was the Philly Fed's state report.

> nyc10022, all you can do is name-call.

No, I prove you wrong, then I call you names.

Remember "stampede" from a year ago. "Prices are going up". You just make it too easy.

"http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1132752161iuzhS&Record=6

See above. that's the tsunami of inventory we would need to drop prices 25% similarto what happened in the late 80s. "

MORON! Oh my god, you're even stupider than I thought. This chart was already debunked.

First off, the estimated new units entering is a prediction from FIVE YEARS AGO. We more than surpassed it.

In fact, 2008 saw 30k new units added to the market (building trades council number).

Your numbers are WROOOOOOOOOOOOOONG

And the moron doesn't get what a rental conversion is. If you think thats the same as a new unit, you're as dumb as you look!

> Don't like the chart, arguments? hello

Well, they did give me a big huge laught.

(crickets)

> SE readers realize this too.

Then why do you always top the moron vote on the board?

(crickets)

"But thx again for keeping my posts on top! "

What, do you think anybody believes the nonsense?

You think you're going to convince everyone to buy? This is your game?

ROTFL.

aboutready, I absofreakingly agree w/ them on a double dip coming by 1st Qtr 2010, when the magical X-mas season doesn't materialize.... hold on to your sombreros, aye ye ye!

jsmith9005, as you are a broker living in my fav building at 1965 B-way, can you explain to me WTF is going on with 11H? Is it in contract or isn't it, did it break $1000psf of didn't it, was it the appraisal ? Who is this dipshit Lee Cave? and what is a refractory period?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/306955-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/411949-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york

even if we don't double dip, we're still talking about the longest recession in 50 years. THe recession ending just means you stop falling. Getting back to where we were... thats gonna take some time. And thats the best case scenario.

(still crickets from dear SteveF)

"THe recession ending just means you stop falling."

Absolutely true. It is certainly good news if the recessiona has technically ended, but it doesn't mean things will ramp right back up. It is going to take a good amount of time....slow and steady (with a few bumps mixed in).

Good news. Now it will be at least two years before New York real estate stabilizes and another year or so before it begins to appreciate.

"Absolutely true. It is certainly good news if the recessiona has technically ended, but it doesn't mean things will ramp right back up. It is going to take a good amount of time....slow and steady (with a few bumps mixed in)."

Yes, it has always amazed me how many folks have said "are you denying things are getting better" when it was announced the recession would end sooner than originally thought... not realizing that it still meant things were getting worse.

Chalk one more up for lousy schools... nobody understands what "recession" means.

"there has NEVER been a better time to buy. i may buy two or three. or more."

You want mustard or ketchup on those?

relish, and maybe sauerkraut.

Do you think we will hit Dow 9k first or under 10k inventory, first?..........ohhh now I hear the crickets :)

it's inventory folks....some savvy buyers out there. with all the doom and gloom they made their move. they def deserve the large equity return that will follow.

steveF, are you really high-fiving yourself over Dow 9k when it peaked over 14k just 2 years ago, and 10k inventory when it was well below 7k less than two years ago and below 5k less than 5 years ago? Really?

While confirming the inventory numbers I came across this chart from MS. Aside from Q109 and maybe Q405, Q209 sales were the lowest they've been this decade.

http://millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168397658DtFJU&Record=9

I don't think SteveF knows what crickets are.

"While confirming the inventory numbers I came across this chart from MS. Aside from Q109 and maybe Q405, Q209 sales were the lowest they've been this decade. "

ssssss..... stevef gets SPANKED... again.

tenemental....kinda looks like now we are at the same spread of Q206 and look at the following year. This time however there is much more pent up demand. The media prtrayed this as a DEPRESSION causing everyone to freeze up that's why sales were down huge. But buyers are realizing this recession is ending so they are buying. It's not rocket sciense here...geez.

btw I wasn't patting my back on anything just trying to point out the TREND.

sorry science...didn't want to upset any grammer experts out there.

> This time however there is much more pent up demand.

Yes, because SteveF said so. Of course, he said that 18 months ago and was wrong, 12 months ago and was wrong, etc.

BTW, Urban Digs does a whole piece on this.... again noting you have no idea what you are talking about.

thx nyc that reminds me speaking of Noah....

steveF, I figured you'd pick 2007 out of that chart. You did notice that in the years leading up to it sales stayed within a pretty narrow range, excepting one small bump up and another down?

"Prices are moving higher as I type this.(footnote, I follow 1-bds and studios)."

Well, my StreetEasy Saved Search Update today (1brs and bigger below $700k in some downtown neighborhoods) showed 4 new listings and 4 price chops.

"btw I wasn't patting my back on anything just trying to point out the TREND."

Maybe I misread you, but that's what all the "crickets" comments sounded like. As for inventory, I still haven't read a satisfactory explanation of how the StreetEasy/UrbanDigs numbers are dealing with the way major brokerages now game them by leaving out full addresses (Digs' widget excludes them).

"aboutready, I absofreakingly agree w/ them on a double dip coming by 1st Qtr 2010, when the magical X-mas season doesn't materialize.... hold on to your sombreros, aye ye ye!"

w67thstreet, I agree that Xmas will be a shock to the folks who have been buying into the green shoots stories. The economy rode high enough long enough that I think a lot of people can't even imagine a sustained down period.

> Maybe I misread you, but that's what all the "crickets" comments sounded like.

Seriously... I don't think steveF knows what crickets are.

tenemental, yes, you can cut costs by cutting employees and hours and benefits thereby raising earnings even while sales are declining, you can reduce inventories so low that you have to pick up production sometime, but the reality is that all those cut employees and hours mean less purchasing in the end. the business paradox of thrift. the consumer paradox of thrift. we're just going to be chock full of paradoxes.