Newsweek Front Cover: The Recession is Over!

Mission Accomplished

Great job, Brownie!

The embrace of hipster irony by Newsweek and other Internet-menaced media outlets has made it hard for literal-minded readers to reconcile the headlines with the stories below them. That cover, together with the Gross article inside, is a mild example; at least the sarcasm is tipped off by the balloon graphic and the footnote, "Good luck surviving the recovery". A more extreme case is Jonathan Alter's current piece on health care reform (http://www.newsweek.com/id/182970). There, the whole article continues the sarcasm of the headline. I personally like the style, but believe it or not some people would read that piece (or rather, misread it, or skim it, or not read it at all) and come away with the impression that Alter opposes health-care reform.

literal-minded readers have been screwed for years. adding irony only compounds the confusion. other media sources simply rely on falsehood.

"other media sources simply rely on falsehood."

Like this board?

depends on who you're referring to, of course, JM.

Of course, this comes from the most liberal publications in the media, which has always been Obama's biggest cheerleader. When the unemployment rate starts to go down then I will believe it. Small business is fearful of hiring right now because of their fears of tax increases and health care costs that may be coming. Until they gain confidence we will not gain any traction.

If the recession is over (and I don't think it is, nor, probably does Obama) than our president has pulled off a miracle. Sorry, we've got quite a bit more pain to live through though I very much hope I am wrong.

"than our president has pulled off a miracle"

I was waiting for this one. Obama's miracle!

John Bogle did an analysis in his biggest book, in regards to the major news mags and the stock market. US News, Business Week, Newsweek, etc.

Apparently every time they did a cover saying "the death of stocks" or something like that, stock prices grew several times average earnings... and every time there was a positive cover, it went the other way.

This has been some rally, and one can only guess how far it goes. However, the more I read about what has been going on in China with regards to their stimulus program funds being largely funneled into the stock market and real estate, the more convinced I am becoming that a major correction is coming. If/when that correction comes, the dollar will rally and commodities and stocks will fall.
In the US, it seems that the economy may be stabilizing, but the markets appear to be pricing in the expectation of appreciable/sizable growth, and that I don't see.
Right now, what I have been doing is getting out of the positions I bought last Fall as they recover from their steep declines (If only I would have been more patient with BAC). For me I am not starting any new positions, and I am pairing back some of the gains in stocks I bought during April/May. I went short using SMN, SIJ, and BOS last week, and I have already gotten stopped out of SMN after a 15% drop. I have been slowly adding to UUP and FXP in anticipation of what I think is a coming correction.
I would welcome any arguments as to how much farther and higher some think the rally here, and in China, will go.

"paring"

Maybe it should have read...The is Dead Recession! Long Live the Recession !

Wait a min...let me try that again...

The Recession is Dead! Long Live the Recession!

That's better

"Apparently every time they did a cover saying "the death of stocks" or something like that, stock prices grew several times average earnings... and every time there was a positive cover, it went the other way."

Finally we agree on something. Believe it or not, but the real estate market in most of the U.S. peaked at the exact minute Time ran this cover:

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20050613,00.html

and the tv show "Black Gold" premiered the same month that oil peaked at $145 a barrel:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Gold_(TV_series)

mh23, over on nakedcapitalism there is a link to an andy xie piece in which he discusses the china situation. he's seeing bubble, big time.

and why does a China bubble affect us? Isn't their economy growing at 2%? (the govt. is claiming they are gorwing at 7.5% but nobody believes that).

alpie, you need to broaden your reading selections.

The challenge here, as always is timing. I feel relatively confident that the Chinese stock market is a bubble, but how long can it continue to inflate? I suspect it could go on through the remainder of this year, or it may correct in the next few weeks. That being said, when the correction comes, the dollar will strengthen, and commodities/oil will come back down hard. For an excellent piece on the technical argument for a big dollar rally, see Mish's global trends.

The headlines can say what they want to reel in the readers. From my micro viewpoint, Friends who were laid off have found jobs. So I think it will get better sooner than we think.

seamus, what areas do your friends work in? because they're not representative, generally, unless it took them over 26 weeks and now counting.

banking and consulting. Found work in the same area after searching for 2-3 months. With a severance package from former company, damage wasn't that bad.

seamus, don't take for granted they will not be fired again.

i'm no permabear, but have many friends in finance, it's been like a revolving door for some.

http://jubakpicks.com/2009/08/03/its-official-this-is-now-the-longest-recession-since-the-great-depression-heres-why-that-matters/