Unemployment Rate FALLS to 9.4%: Bears, Please Explian Why This is Bad

It's not bad. It's good. Obama's doing a terrific job handling the economy that was left in a shambles by the Republicans. Though as he warned, there are still many tough times ahead including possibly 10% unemployment. What relation it has to NYC real estate. Probably none.

As always, it's really misleading to look at the unemployment rate without looking at the underlying variables. A decline in the unemployment rate that is coincident with continued job losses usually means that fewer people are looking for work, as this article explains:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/08/07/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop/

Probably the best news today is not the decline in the unemployment rate (which should paradoxically pop back up again as disgruntled workers re-start the job hunt) but the quite lower than expected rate of job loss.

Good news all around but not for the reasons you state.

http://www.downtownyblog.com

Its good news definitely. Not gonna do a thing for mnahattan RE in the short term though. you will still see people puking apartments from now till 2010. The bank still wants thier $$ now

The unemployment rate dropped because it doesn't count people who've stopped looking for jobs, and a lot of people have just stopped looking for jobs. Why is that good?

It's a meaningless blip.

Consensus still calls for unemployment to peak around mid-2010 at around 10.5%.

Last time we had a big surge in unemployment was in the early nineties. Peaked out around 7.8% around the end of 1993.

Real estate prices didn't start to move in "real" terms until 1997.

"Consensus still calls for unemployment to peak around mid-2010 at around 10.5%."

Just because a lot of peopel say something does not mean it is true.

The "consensus" was that today's unemployment number was ging to increse to 9.7% according to all of the super genius analysts on Wall St.

come on dog head. say what you really mean. "just because something is true doesn't mean i think its true."

How do you even state that a lot of people have stopped looking for jobs? How is that even accurately measureable?

Because you have a couple friends who are unmotivated losers and stopped looking for work, that means they cannot be alone, there must be 10s of thousands more?

That's a real spin.

Who says it's bad. Don't know how relevant it is to a bull market.

June 2009* May 2009 June 2008
New York State 8.7 8.2 5.3
United States 9.5 9.4 5.6
New York City 9.5 8.9 5.4
NYS, excluding NYC 8.2 7.7 5.3

http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/PressReleases/pruistat.htm

Bottom line is twice as many people out of work compared to last year in NYC....that is bad

And how do we count the Euro green cards that were working in NYC and now have to go back to London or Geneva and dump their apartment?

The government actually measures the number of people who have become discouraged and stopped looking for a job. You are most familiar with the "headline" unemployment rate. But there are many other unemployment measures including ones that add back such discouraged individuals into the unemployment numbers. They also measure those who are "underemployed" - part time workers who are seeking fulltime work.

Its certainly not a bad thing, certainly good for stocks.

Just won't do much to save Manhattan RE.

"just because something is true doesn't mean i think its true."

Actually, he means: "just because something is true doesn't mean I believe it."

Actually, he means: "just because something is true doesn't mean I believe it."

you mean like you and the mortgage interest deduction?

'puking'. Nice nice.
One other thing. Me thinkz if you're gonna take a breather from looking for a job after 9 months, summer might be a good time, no? I mean he'll I've gone through a whole summer on $2k. One pair of shorts 2 tshirts and lots of sidewalk hit dogs.

Damn iPhone. Hot dogs. Although I am not adverse to eating road kill.