Which is the best neighborhood in Manhattan to buy?

yep...at least triple your money.

really? Has not deflated enough...

Lower East Side. Can only go up. Here's a pretty block: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=85+avenue+a,+ny,+ny&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=66.281516,135.263672&ie=UTF8&ll=40.725331,-73.984418&spn=0.00198,0.004128&t=h&z=19&layer=c&cbll=40.725188,-73.984156&panoid=U46DwPpZ5mIEXjWAkBIfcw&cbp=12,164.08,,0,11.26

if you want to live in a flood zone, by all means go for it

The best neighborhood in Manhattan to buy is the one you want to live in.

Here's a funny idea: Look for something along the new 2nd Avenue subway.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

We just bought on the "Upper Upper West Side" (98th) and I'm totally digging it ... quieter than midtown, better parks than downtown, new Whole Foods coming ... you have to go downtown to get decent pizza though.

ali r.
{Ask the Agent: bit.ly/12afCB}

"quieter than midtown"? I would guess 98th btw WEA and RSD would be almost quieter than The Ramble..

Try Perfecto Pizza on B'way at 92nd.

Ali, I like your building. Saw something there, and down the street at 255, when we were looking 18 years ago.

In terms of appreciation potential... UES and FiDi, by far. UES is out of favor, FiDi is going through some pain, and both have great "bones".

I think Tribeca is about the worst bet out there...

NYC - Why do you think Tribeca is "about the worst bet out there"?

Because its hot, and benefitted from the bubble as much as anywhere else.
Though, I take it back... its the worst bet for prime areas, and is the closest of such to Wall Street.

I think some oversold "up and coming" will take worse hits.

I really like living in the quiet west 90s--but it used to be really cheap here--now I'd say it's just less expensive. But if you believe the trend of embracing city living is going to continue, then the west 90s or west 100s, perhaps even west Harlem, are solid investment areas. In 1990, I spoke with a suburban commuter that was sour on Manhattan. Of course, that time period proved to be a temporary setback in a long running uptrend in city living standards. The city and parks are cleaner, crime is down and the retail options are much, much better. I truly have lucked out by making a commitment to live in an emerging neighborhood long ago, because it's starting to feel like that neighborhood has nearly arrived.

The key is to buy in an improving neighborhood, or one whose popularity is on the rise. To me, if I were looking today, and I had a 15 to 20 year time horizon, I would consider FIDI. I do hate the tourists and the claustrophobia-inducing narrow streets, BUT there is so much over-supply of condos that the opportunity for a bargain is there today or in the next couple of years. And projecting out 20 years, you've got a built out ground zero, easy transit, proximity to tribeca and other downtown neighborhoods (with great restaurants and nightlife), and my favorite reason: ferry access to Governor's island, which is sure to become downtown's answer to Central Park.

spinnaker, may your sheep bear more sheep and your grapes bear more grapes ... that pizza was exactly what I needed.

ali r.

I would say Harlem.

Agreed Mutombo.

Glad to help Ali.

I have yet to find brunch ambiance and eggs benny to rival that of Tartine, so if you run across something....

Riverside of course.

UES East of 3rd

always holds value, and the longer you stay, the closer your sale will be the the opening of the subway, which will add value

I like yorkville. very quiet and peacefull.

Mimi, Thank you.

diasagree with pmg---when the market is weak and may not trend higher for several years, one should take advantage and buy in as blue ribbon an area/building as one can afford--outlier areas that may gentrify are the slowest to appreciate once the bubble has truly deflated--it's only once blue ribbon supply is back to the bidding wars of the bubble days that outlier neighborhood will improve

now that tried and true properties are so much more affordable, why buy in riskier unestablished areas?

Ubottom, (why do you have that user name? )
I agree with your point about established neighborhoods in a downturn.
But you cannot deny that an improving neighborhood offers the best return on investment in the long run. In my opinion, the best choice for an improving neighborhood today, where you might buy at a distressed price today, is FIDI.

the thing about the UES that keeps prices down is that it has a very large supply of cookie-cutter post-war buildings, many of which are outwardly atrocities. i've seen gorgeous apartments within, but you will prevent a certain amount of appreciation when you have apartments of all sizes available at lower prices because there are many buildings with low ceilings and horrendous balconies.

of course that only applies to parts of the UES, but it affects the lesser areas. 10022, this is not an attempt to put down your neighborhood, so don't go all spider-monkey on me.

I have to agree with nyc10022 - some of the transactions that are closing in Prime UES are enough to make a diehard consider crossing the Park. Then I remember that we don't have $4MM in cash sitting around (let alone the extra $8MM in liquid assets the Board would want), and the urge passes.

Ali's new neighborhood is quite attractive now too, but a bit of perspective is in order. The discount at which UUWS trades vs. Prime UWS is still, I think, rather narrow by historic standards. It has certainly widened, and both areas have dropped to the point where the rent-buy math might work for some people.

Yeah, the "cheap" prewar apts on the UES - cheap because of the heavy liquidity requirements.

"The key is to buy in an improving neighborhood, or one whose popularity is on the rise."

I'm a firm believer in buying in a neighborhood that you love today. With the sort of money it costs to live here, do you really want to bet on a neighborhood you sort of like and hope it turns into something better? What if it doesn't get better? You have now wasted a portion of your life (not to mention money) living in a neighborhood you don't really love hoping for some sort of upside that may never come. My advice is to buy the best apartment you can afford in the neighborhood that you love.

Well said JuiceMan.....

This is what happened to all of the people in Brooklyn who purchased in Bed Sty and Bushwich. They'll have to wait for another 20 yrs before they will get their $1M investment back.

JuiceMan, So, you don't pay attention to where you want to be in twenty years? In my opinion, NYC is very expensive, and you don't buy here for a five year holding period. Neighborhoods are dynamic, and I think you should take them into account. If you didn't follow my advice in the last twenty years, and you followed your advice, a buyer would have missed tribeca or the upper west side in favor of staid, already established UES. While a fine place to live, it hasn't had the same rate of appreciation by a long shot.

"you didn't follow my advice in the last twenty years, and you followed your advice, a buyer would have missed tribeca or the upper west side in favor of staid, already established UES."

Fair point PMG if you are willing to risk it and you can live with the "up and coming" neighborhood in the short term. I wouldn't choose a neighborhood because I think it will "outperform" over the next 5,10,20 years. That is an investors mindset which I fundamentally disagree with for the home you live in. Why not just buy stocks or an investment unit in that neighborhood if you want to take that kind of risk? I'm not worried that my home in the UWS will underperform FIDi in the next ten years because I love my neighborhood now and that is what is important to me. If you feel differently that's cool but just know that you are speculating with your home and, as we found out recently, that doesn't always pan out.

i revert to prior point: think of yourself selling when you buy--if your 20 year plan suddenly changes and you are a seller in upper manhatan or bushwick or in a new-condo-flooded market when all of nyre is weak (like right now) you will suck wind hard

if you must sell in a weak market, you will have a much better time selling a good line in a good building in an established neighborhood

many people couldn't afford to buy in a neighborhood they loved. they settled for like, and hopefully promise. bed-stuy and bushwick may have been some people's first choices, but probably not a high percentage, even if they became excited during the process of buying.

you make a fine argument for renting in many circumstances.

JuiceMan and PMG, I actually agree with both of you, because I think what you're talking about isn't so black and white. There's no clear definition of "up and coming" that applies for everyone. There are still people out there who think the East Village is up and coming - while I disagree, it shows how different perception can be. Ultimately, if you're buying a home, you should be comfortable with both how the neighborhood is now, and how you see it looking 10 years down the road. If you have an eye towards appreciation (and like JM, I don't really think this is best), you should probably look for signs that the neighborhood is about to enter the "early majority" phase along the diffusion spectrum - you need solid evidence that it's not going to be left by the wayside in a tough market.

What about Hell's Kitchen? Do you consider this neighborhood up and coming or just priced appropriately for what it is?

"I have to agree with nyc10022 - some of the transactions that are closing in Prime UES are enough to make a diehard consider crossing the Park. Then I remember that we don't have $4MM in cash sitting around (let alone the extra $8MM in liquid assets the Board would want), and the urge passes."

lol.

"There's no clear definition of "up and coming" that applies for everyone. There are still people out there who think the East Village is up and coming - while I disagree, it shows how different perception can be."

What people love is based on preference. It doesn't matter why you love the neighborhood that you live in, just that you love it

"What about Hell's Kitchen? Do you consider this neighborhood up and coming or just priced appropriately for what it is? "

I like Hell's Kitchen but it was overhyped a bit the last couple years which may have resulted in higher prices than the neighborhood deserved. I don't think it is "up and coming" it is a fine neighborhood as it is.

Nice points JuiceMan. I agree and would never gamble on such a large and important purchase. But, we're conservative and have no problem being left out of the new "hot spots". We also have no problem renting in a neighborhood where we currently can't afford to buy the space we would like. My vote is for tried and true.

"What people love is based on preference. It doesn't matter why you love the neighborhood that you live in, just that you love it"

Agreed.... BUT the OP specifically mentions price appreciation.

In that case, you're talking about not caring so much about what YOU love, but trying to figure out what everyone else will love. In that case, everyone else's opinions do matter.

In a market sense, you're looking for an apartment that will appreciate more than average, which generally means something that relatively more people will like than current.

That could be a place that "needs work" and will likely get it - like FiDi, where its waiting on construction and not gentrification, which might not come or could reverse - or a place thats just out of favor in the current cycle that still has good "bones" - like the UES.

Like with stocks, this doesn't mean these will become the "best" neighborhoods, only that their relative standings need to improve.

on the flip side of that, of course, "hot" neighborhoods that don't have much higher to go in relative terms.... hence Tribeca, far West Village, etc.

Consistent with the theme of this thread, but inserting the p/sf question for FIDI. What would a good p/sf range be for a large one bed, 1.5 bath with outdoor space? I'm thinking of putting in a bid as a place to live. Not as an investment per se, but who wants to see equity disappear over the next 3-4 years...

700-800 psf? 800-900 psf?

Do you add extra sf to the total to include the outdoor space? Ex. the apt is 900 sf but there is 500 sf of outdoor space. Do you calculate an offer based on 900 sf or something like 1100 to include a portion of the outdoor space?

I've been told that you take .5 of the outdoor space to calculate total p/sf. So in your example, the calculation would be based on 900 + 250 = 1150.