JPMorgan: V-shaped recovery

I have called for this. Score another one for me.

there's a bit of a problem with their analysis:

“Whenever we have plunged off a cliff and fallen into a deep hole in the past, for a while the economy has a tendency to bounce back very quickly,” said Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan in New York. Glassman and his colleagues this month said forecasts of 3 percent to 4 percent growth in coming quarters may be too low given “pent-up” consumer demand.

Except that when we fall off a cliff we usually have high interest rates that can be lowered to get the machine going.

Did you know that retail is the third largest source of employment in the US, after government and services? That whole sentence is sad on many levels. Anyway, the consumer just isn't being horribly cooperative in helping making the V, clearly they flunked marching band letter formation practice:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/retail_job_losses/index.htm?postversion=2009071712

Steve - are you saying that you called for a V-shaped recovery?

I said that I did, and I think that that's what we'll have, but I could be wrong.

Okay...I wasn't trying to call you out. I wasn't sure what you had said and I mistakenly assumed that you were NOT of the belief that we would have a V-shaped recovery. Just wanted to clarify on a Friday morning, as the memory is not as crisp some days;).

I agree with you on that, although I think we'll have a bump or two along the way. Not sure what kinky shape that will be, but I believe it will be much more V than anything else.

even if we have a V shape recovery, do you think we will have a V shape price adjustments on real estate, buy/sell not rentals.

I don't think the economy and RE in NYC will recover in the same way.

> I have called for this. Score another one for me

So you are, what, 2 for 200 now?

Hold your horses!!! Who in their right mind really thinks we will have a V-shaped recovery? Ok, so the stock market has made a nice bounce which may or may not continue. But the stock market and the economy are two different things. Let's be honest here: this entire recovery has been sponsored by our children. The trillions in bailouts and stimulus and cash for clunkers, etc. has simply propped us up for the time being. I'm not saying that it was the wrong thing to do, but we have simply borrowed from our future to save our asses right now. You can't tell me that this enormous borrowing won't cause significant problems in the future - inflation, higher interest rates, crushing debt service, higher taxes etc. It absolutely has to, or else America will have shown that there are no consequences to our bad economic behavior. That would refute all of the known laws of economics. We can't borrow ourselves into oblivion without any consequences.

Once the government spiggot gets turned off and we are forced to fend for ourselves, we will see that we have lost a tremendous amount of our economic engine: manufacturing - and we can't really recover without making things the world world wants to buy. We can't all be in the service industry, you don't create wealth that way. We don't make anything anymore and that is why we will have another long, painful jobless recovery.

"So you are, what, 2 for 200 now?"

LMAO

massive unemployment with the same levels of debt and more..... plus we are converting private debt into massive government debt.... I say we have an iceberg up ahead...............