History predicts bottom in 2011 in Northeast US

sensible

my issue with this estimates is that there hadn't been a RE with the flood of foreclosures at the residential level before (there has been though at the commercial level in nyc and it took YEARS to clean up). how is the fact that the foreclosure process in nyc takes 450 days gonna impact the timing of the eventual recovery? (versus 45 days in other areas that already have nice properties on FC).

notice that the foreclosures in this area are still concentrated in ghetto like areas, most are still result of the subprime crash. the defaults on prime mtgs are not gonna be auctioned any time soon, but sure will come around 2011-2013. how come isn't this gonna depress prices on say, 2014-2015?

add to that the change in psychology "the joy of renting" and "small is beautiful"... (this according to shiller). i agree with him in this, a lot depends on whether this change of psychology is temporary or permanent. remember most first-time homebuyers were buying with the help of mom and dad (many of them thinking it was a kick-ass move to compensate for lack of retirement savings...).

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/mba-record-132-percent-of-mortgage.html

“While the rate of new foreclosures started was essentially unchanged from last quarter’s record high, there was a major drop in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans. The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types of loans, with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase. As a sign that mortgage performance is once again being driven by unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted for one in five....” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.

We're all subprime now!

Thanks for these posts. They only re-affirm that signing a lease for another year before buying was a very smart move.

Anyone who cites "history" as a way of rpedicting the future is doomed to be wrong. As UD describes it, its the equivalent of looking in the rear view mirror whiel your driving forward.

yes, the future could be worse.

Any support whatsoever for that crazy statement alpine? With all due respect, I'm sure UD was referring to something quite different, that is using stats from last quarter to deduce where the market is today. There's actually a far more popular quote about those who ignore history.

"We're all subprime now!"

I remember way back when everyone was actually buying subprime products and prices were going through the roof, well before the collapse, and Donald Trump was on CNN. They said, "Mr. Trump, what do you think about all this growth in the subprime sector, are you getting in this market?" and he said "I don't like SUB anything." classic

I think Will Rogers said it best.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

"Historically, from peak to trough, it takes more than four years for housing prices to bottom."

Have I not been sayng four years for, well, a couple years?
So, 2012, here we come!

and, of course, this decline is worse than the others, so should we expect 2013 or 2014?

> Anyone who cites "history" as a way of rpedicting the future is doomed to be wrong.

ROTFL. Not surprising that the idiot gets it backward!

Alpo, its... "Those Who Forget History Are Doomed to Repeat It"

And, once again, morons like you never learned history, and suffered from the crash.

History does not repeat itself but, it does ryhme.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/queens-sees-median-sales-price-increase-other-boroughs-decline-manhattan-down-21-7-percent

"Manhattan saw the sharpest DROP in median sales prices with a 21.7% decline."

YES! The market IS readjusting itself even if the most insane Bulls refuse to acknowledge it.

"for residential and commercial properties"

should look at data that only includes residential imho

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage-delinquencies-hit-apf-1442009590.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

While anyone who reads my posts will know I'm HUGE on looking at history, you have to remember that historically we've seen cycles like 5 years up and five years down, and we just finished a 15+ year up cycle. So, you should expect that things are probably going to be a little different than average in the down part of the cycle, whatever that may be, because we're already IN "outlier land".

But everyone should take a REAL close look at this again:

"“While the rate of new foreclosures started was essentially unchanged from last quarter’s record high, there was a major drop in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans. The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types of loans, with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase. As a sign that mortgage performance is once again being driven by unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted for one in five....” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist."

"with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase."

Sub-prime was always going to be a problem if the market showed ANY correction, because they start out under water and they are more often crap to begin with. So the "sub prime crisis", while costly, was only any surprise to the 3 monkeys. OTOH, when you have PRIME FIXED RATE mortgages as the largest growth in delinquencies, it represents a potential fundamental collapse of the underlying value of the entire market.

Example: When garbage houses in South Queens were showing up at foreclosure, it really didn't mean much to the market as a whole: just the flotsam and jetsam being washed back out to sea. But seeing apartments in long standing Coop buildings WHICH HAD NEVER HAD A SINGLE FORECLOSURE IN IT'S ALMOST 30 YEAR HISTORY, even though it was only 1 foreclosure, got my attention.