UrbanDigs Expects Quarter to Quarter Improvements

don't confuse recovery with the price of manhattan real estate. endless threads to be read here on this subject.

220RSB just cleared at $643psf.... get more popcorn.

considering that you just said that Wong likely knew someone at Chase, can you even consider 220RSB a "comp"? I mean, when there is an inside sale at a low price, is it really fair to count it as a comp the same way you woudl with a unit listed by a realtor?

POTUS has a point here.
All arrows still point down.
It's a alow day...Based on a time line, where doess everyone think the scale of price is today based on historical pricing?
Q2/05???

we are in late 2004 pricing at best......mid 2005 at worst..

alpie, don't be ridiculous. if mr. wong knows someone it just means he got it at what chase was willing to unload it at. chase is not in the business of giving away money, they're in the business of getting free money.

Eastside...You seem like a smart guy. Don't you see that the strong summer we just had is going to rev up in the fall. Which will lead into an even stronger Jan-May season. The economic recovery is going mainstream, everyone is talking about it and you can see all the increased buyer threads here. I predict that by the end of next spring inventory will be @ 7k with yoy price increases of somewhere around 15%. Anybody who bought early this year from desperate sellers, scored. it's a no brainer guy.

Steve, now you are really delusional. Step out of your little bubble. Nobody NOBODY predicts more than a slower pace down followed by a stabilization, and maybe a W shaped recovery. It helps nobody to just be blind at reality.

mimi...haven't I been right all year? C'mon you know I called it correctly, from the economic recovery, to the pent up demand, decreasing inventory, strong sales etc. Please stop with the BULLSH-T!!!

i dont want to get into predictions, but the lagging nature of reports allows me to be confident in one thing: THE Q2 REPORT WAS THE LAGGING REPORT THAT SHOWED THE DOWNTURN THE DEFINED Q4 AND Q12009. IT WAS FIERCE AND VERY SLOW, AND THE REPORT SHOWED THAT WHEN RELEASED IN JULY. BUT SINCE MAY-PRESENT HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE, I WOULD THINK THE UPCOMING REPORT WILL BE COMPARED TO PRIOR QUARTER AND SINCE THE PRIOR QUARTER WAS SO BAD REFLECTING THE FROZEN MONTHS, I THINK Q3 WILL REFLECT THE ACTIVE ONES.

The first half of 2009 proved to be the most sluggish in 10 years. The pace of destruction was so fierce, that either the upcoming Q3 or Q4, perhaps even both, will show drastic quarter to quarter improvements. Cant deny that the action we saw, that already happened, will ultimately make its way through to the reports. The only item that may take another quarter to show improvment is PRICING! Q3 prices MAY, and I repeat MAY, still be somewhat pressured and not really reflect the pricing OUT of Armageddon that seemed to occur.

Quarter to Quarter trends is not a predicative tool for future months and has much noise in markets that need to be seasonally adjusted. I believe our active season was delayed due to first wave down.

I'll take the under on the %15 yoy increase. Lmao. The foreclosures in NYC are just starting to sprout it's green shoots. Lmao. SteveF in which planet do you spend most of your time? And arguing with you would be like arguing with a dinner table...........

Lets keep in mind though the frozen market of OCT - MARCH took until July to come out in the report. Problem is people see the report and think that is what is happening now. Cant look ahead by peaking into rear view mirror

"I'll take the under on the %15 yoy increase"

Oh yea, me too. It wont be anything like that. But it might show a stabilization in prices OR we may have to wait for Q4 to show the slight pricing out of Armageddon. These reports are still in process of defining the downturn. But the report should definitely show a qtr-qtr surge in contracts signed and and good rise in closings for July, Aug, Sept which represent contracts signed between May, June and July, all active months. Inventory will show a decline qtr-to-qtr.

Ill repeat so it doesnt get confused again, the prices element is only one Im not sure on. Q3 may show continued pressure on prices - that Im not sure about if it shows in Q3 or Q4, the slight rebound that occurred from fear months to recent months AFTER the fierce/fast wave down.

EASTSIDE - Lets go over what happened in your price point. At peak, that 1BR was selling for 700K. Then something happened. Market experienced wave down. Under 1M crowd arguably saw around a 20-23% correction or so, less fierce than higher end.

So, lets say it was trading at high end of that range off peak during fear monnths, via an overshoot on first wave down, and was trading at $539,000 or so in feb/march. Then the market changed again, and priced out fear. So now its trading closer to 20% off peak, or around $560,000. Now all these numbers get marked and into the reports. So one quarter shows a 23% adjustment and next quarter shows a 3.8% gain. That gain hits the media, and everyone says SEE THE MARKET IS RISING AGAIN!

Yet the same product traded for 700K only 18 months ago? Puts into perspective what is happening now.

Yes, I think we will have 2nd wave, but pushed out my timeline for that until late 2010 or 2011 when wee see another round of bank pressures. I just think this deleveraging process will take 5-6 years, and maybe we are near the end of year 2 now. So much stimulus, we are in that growth spurt part of the W, in my opinion. Can last a while!

UD. No question activity is up bc prices were headed down. I really don't think sellers had any pricing power. Moreover, I'm getting an inkling that potential sellers have seen the activity and are starting dribble their units on the mkt. I can clearly see 3bdrm uws market getting new inventory. : )

let's see when everyone is back after sept. if pulled listings just come back. Lordy the equity market is getting scary, just need to hold up till december 09.

UD, i don't think you can overemphasize that there are now two markets in NYC. conforming and non-conforming. prices are often driven down by the lower end. i think it takes longer when it goes top down, but that's what it seems to be doing. eventually the smaller and smaller differential in prices between small conforming and larger non-conforming apartments will push prices down at the bottom also. i see quite a bit of activity in the smaller apartment, first-time buyer market, consistent with national trends actually, and some activity at higher levels that i would term bargains compared to recent prices, but with still a significant ways to go down. then have some fun adding the new development units, where i'm starting to see developers lowering prices more frequently, and things could get quite interesting fourth quarter.

how long the growth spurt can continue depends on many factors, and could be shut down, at least temporarily, in an instant. and the growth spurt doesn't deal with the unemployment issues, and the fact that there is little to no room for companies to experience any real growth, and significant room for others to experience real loss, although with balance sheet machinations they are doing their best to push the inevitable out. certain industries are in the basement, but even there there is little room to make it to the first floor. if they manage to continue to kick the can, which they might or might not be able to do, the mid-term election time period should be interesting.

heading out. wifey giving me shit for talking pre-dinner plans.

ill be back tomorrow! enjoy night all

urbandigs....if im understanding you correctly......the 700k apt went to 539k and then jumped 560k(disagree with this increase...if anything i think it was the other way around.....700k went down to 560k in feb/mar and then to 539k in july)....but lets go with what you laid out......if the 1 bed is currently trading at 560k....so what happens between now and 2nd wave(ie late 2010/2011).....does the 560k stabilize and then go down 15& which bring us to 475k......if that is the case....if someone can get a nice 1 bed for 500k(below market in todays market)....wouldnt that be worth taking TODAY since it wont be worth waiting 2 yrs for 25K lower....OR dow we expect a bigger than 15% drop in 2010/2011?

so how does this data correspond to NYC10022's call for a 50% drop by this fall?

how does it correspond to petro's call for an increase?

I wrote about it July 10th and designed a chart representing the wave down that I saw broken down by price point, take a look:

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/07/so_what_happened_since_lehman.html

RE is so local and has so many variables. A numeber of reasons could explain why any one individual property is trading lower today than it did in FEB/MAR. But I have to generalize the market a bit on a bigger picture level, on my site urbandigs. The grander scheme. Ive noted so many times how unique property variables make this a very difficult market to generalize. Im not perfect and I will never always be right. With that said my opinion is that FEB/MARCH saw fear levels way way way higher than we do today and saw way fewer buyers than we did during MAY, JUNE, JULY and into AUG. So generally speaking, I would argue that the fear months saw fewer trades, but more distressed trades than we saw in the more recent months.

What happens now? How do I know? I publicly discussed my uber bearish positions and why starting in fall of 2007. Then the process started and we had a wave down. Then I got less bearish. If your asking me when the 2nd wave is, well, I would probably be a top paid analyst at some big firm. All I can tell you is my feelings on where we are now, and some thoughts on my concerns in future. Banks raised ton of money, fed engineered recap environment is still on, unprecedented fiscal/monetary stimulus, money printing, 19 credit facilities, easinG FASB acct guidelines, can all push back my 2nd wave concerns by a good year or two. Watch credit indicators for when things may get hairy again. For now, credit came in BIG TIME and stimulus is kicking in. We WILL SEE it in the macro data and stocks are pricing that in. Question is, how long does it last and how do we handle the other side of it given our structural problems and still toxic loans on banks balance sheets that would cripple system if it were not for all the policies put into place.

In short, the wave down I was expecting already happened. I say we muddle for a while until we have another dislocation somewhere - whether its credit, corporate bond market, cmbs's, treasury market auction failures, etc. I dont know. I dont see prices rising again to near peak levels for a looong time. But sure you may see some reports showing qtr-qtr increases.

I just dont know if it will be Q3 or Q4 that shows it. I wrote about it likely being Q3, but I could be one quarter off showing the improvements from JAN-MARCH that I discussed above!

What effect will a Fed engineered uptick in inflation have on nominal real estate prices?
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE57K5LL20090822

In the 1970's inflation was high, but at least you stood still with housing(inflation adjusted)

http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/

"aboutready - SAYS - how does it correspond to petro's call for an increase?"

hmm well i said increase YOY by the fall, and UD is now saying "....the upcoming Q3 or Q4, perhaps even both, will show drastic quarter to quarter improvements...."

hmmm ......

and what did you say last year, petro? hmmmm....

go back to tending your slums.

last year i said "10-15% YOY increases in sales price by late fall"

do you think that I will be right about ready? oh yeah thanks for slinging slurs.

no problem. you deserve them. and i don't think you'll be right.

wow you such mature sportsman like behavoir. Did you predict 50% YOY decreases last year? lets just let the results speak for themselves. See if you are right or if I am. Then we will see who is talking sh!t and who actually knows what they are talking about.

thanks, petro. i needed a good laugh.

what cant stand behind your own words? can you only throw slurs?

what words? i've never given an estimate and a time period. i've said that at the end of the day i expect prices to fall to 1998 or 2000 levels. but i've never said when the end of the day will be. you must be confusing me with one of your other fans.

ok then get some balls and stand behind your statement. When do you expect prices to fall to 1998 or 2000 levels?

offer some insight into your claims instead of only throwing slurs.

oh yeah prices returning to 1998 or 2000 levels would mean over 75% drop from current levels.

well gee, petro, if i knew when the fuck the administration will quit doing everything in their power to prop up housing prices i might have an answer for you.

idiot.

wow ballsy prediction! I will make a call that says sometime in the future housing prices will be up 100% from 2007 levels. I am going to be like aboutready and not claim a date, year or decade for this prediction. But I will be more mature than him and not throw any slurs.

her, petro. her.

in essence...im sensing if you get a good deal for this market...ie 1 bed in nice hood for 500k...you should buy it since many 1 beds are still at mid to high 500s and if there is a 2nd wave....it might go down to mid 400's....is that worth waiting 2 yrs...probably not......i remember reading the mhillqt example....apt in Mhill.....was 700k in nov 08 and it came down to 599k and mhillqt got it for 490k......i got to believe that this apt would only go to low to mid 400s during 2nd wave.......and mhillqt should prob buy.......why wait for 50k price differential....make sense urbanigs?

any comments on my last post here....it was basically my question from original post ....

mhillqt...hope you dont mind that i used your example as my question to urbandigs/others...i think its a good example....thanks