Apt activity must be very strong...

Evidence in its broadest sense includes everything that is used to determine or demonstrate the truth of an assertion. Giving or procuring evidence is the process of using those things that are either a) presumed to be true, or b) were themselves proven via evidence, to demonstrate an assertion's truth. Evidence is the currency by which one fulfills the burden of proof.

Um ...evidence of what exactly?

Man, I've watched SteveF reach for months, but WOW, this is really reaching. He doesn't even have a stat to misread, now its he knows some guy who told him the market is....

Then again, maybe this is a good sign... SteveF has almost capitulated.

The apt that i lowballed on and got accepted (after weeks of negotiations) sold after i decided not to go for it......i did all the upfront work for that new buyer....things are selling at the right price.....a bit remorseful about not going ahead with it....but we did take a 20% cut at work for salary/benefits......

If "right price" is now defined at greater than 30% off peak... *awesome*!

Millqt. A banker guy in 2004 asked me if he should buy a 1bdrm Zeckendorf vs stayin in his $1400 studio rental ( permanent bachelor). Gave me crap in 06' for losing him $200k. Then proceeded to lose his job in 2007. It took him 16 months to get a job that paid 1/2 what he made in 2005. Now he calls me to ask if he should buy rice crispies on sale at $4 box.

SteveF: You are very entertaining.

Here's a free, slightly-off-topic tip to buyers, called to mind by SteveF's OP: target listings that are around six months old. A broker whose exclusive is about to expire is extremely motivated to get your offer accepted.

today 1-mth change 3-mth change
inventory 9171 -7.25% -16.46%

OR

Inventory today 9171

1 month change -7.25%
3 month change -16.46%

Now THAT's entertainment!

UWS "conveniently" misses that part where new listings dwarf sales....

and we haven't even hit listing season yet.

whoops.

the shadow knows!

We are quickly finding what percentage of listings were actually fishing expeditions.

that might be a nice story you tell yourself to help you sleep, but not really logical. You fish when things are hot, you "flee" when things are not.

Inventory peak was in June, well after the declines started.

That 'aint fishing, those are scared sellers... and probably still scared sellers, just afraid of facing pricing reality for the summer.

the shadow knows!

All I know is I now pay $3400 (and will likely be able to negotiate a rent decrease on renewal in the Fall) for what it would cost me $6000 a month or more to buy. Why would I buy?

if i might ask familyguy, what kind of apartment do you live in now that you rent for $3400 (and expect a decrease in) that would cost you $6000 per month to buy? just curious

choose one:

because you want to
because you like to lose money
because home ownership makes you feel important

the inventory numbers that are published for Manhattan have turned into a total joke. We have 10 apts on our floor and 2 of them have been empty for about 5 months now. When we leave it will be 3 empty on a floor of 10

Is there another number to look at for Manhattan inventory besides the one posted here, which today for sales in 12,895 & rentals 13.130

Its a 2 bedroom convertible 3, maybe 1100 square feet, with some outdoor space in an elevator bldg with concierge. New development down the street and I'd wind up paying 5K to 6k (including maintenance) for a similar size, 4-5K for a smaller one.

actually maybe more for similar size. I think the price tag is 1.2M.

the landlords wont make puplic the true inventory number until they can use it to there advantage. When it get to close to 5 percent they will start to make it public s that they can destabilize rent stabilized apts.

It's a bloodbath where I am. They are offering 2 free months and other incentives and this is their peak season.

family, what neighborhood?

I actually had a VERY similar choice when I moved into my last apartment ($6k carrying vs. $3k rent or so), but it was before the crash. I'm going to look again, but given I've already seen 15% reductions on the rents, I'm not expecting much different.

is it in manhattan?

or financial district?

Last time I checked the financial district was part of Manhattan;) It's District 2. For what it's worth, I looked hard at other more desirable nabes (including Tribeca) and it remains true. We are probably members of the NYC middle class, people who would be considered affluent anywhere else but are solidly middleclass here. After we've been 401k'd and AMT'd and paid for childcare, we only have a certain amount of cash invest; I just can't see putting all that money in one place or in NYC RE. Maybe we're atypical, but I've lived here since college and from what I've seen we're not.

esp. when I can rent and sock away more cash to invest elsewhere.

NY is no fun anymore. I miss the old days, crime and all.

Then again, I'm used to driving around in the DR where if there's 4 guys in a car, there's 5 guns in it.

yeah, familyguy, you caught my mispost....so you are on the ues? district 2 meaning school zone right? my main curiosity is in your claim that you think you are going to get a discount on what sounds to be a pretty good rent on your (presumably 2bd) apartment in a doorman building. sounds sweet as it is. i don't know your landlord of course, but a true 2 bed in a doorman at 3.4k per month is low.

Yeah, I feel that way too. I saw Tootsie on TV the other night and it made me homesick for the city I came into on a Greyhound bus all those years ago.

District 2 is actually much broader than the UES, but for our purposes it's the only pertinent fact. We need to stay in D2. In this environment, I'll wager almost any parent who plans on public through middle school would be wise to do the same. I cannot buy in D2 for less than almost double what I pay in rent or much more. We have 2 beds, 2 baths and the apartment is designed to convert to 3. Apartments in our line are renting for less than we now pay with concessions.

Sorry: above is a reply to eastsidebroker.

i don't doubt that.

i am usually pretty hard pressed to find a 2/2 for clients for less than 4k per month. not impossible, but not loads and loads of inventory. i should say that those are with an owner paid commission.

> NY is no fun anymore. I miss the old days, crime and all.

Yes, its so hard to get good crack these days.

I could change the numbers and the story would remain the same. I could move tomorrow to a a rental nearby a 2/2 for $3795 with one month free and some other stuff thrown in. I could move to a more desirable part of District 2 and pay $5K to Glenwood for what I have now, but then I'd be looking at $7500 in monthly paments to buy an equiv. apartment. I've owned. I liked owning. It just doesn't make sense right now.

I'm in the same boat as you. Prices are down, but there are just SO many great deals out there on rentals. Its a pretty cool time to be looking.

and a pretty cool time to be primarily a rental agent

"Yes, its so hard to get good crack these days."

The Dominicans ruined the cocaine market in NY when they took over Washington Heights. Started with the Wild Cowboys.

Yeah I actually quit doing cocaine b/c of the pusher's greed...they cut it with so much sh$t that it just wasn't worth it anymore, so I quit and haven't touched the stuff in 9 years. Thanks for being so greedy pusher man.

I'm with family guy -- we got a rent reduction on our 2bd/2ba highrise with great light, lots of windows, and outdoor space in a family-friendly neighborhood. We're now paying $3300/mo. And of course we have the freedom to move that owners don't have.

The calculation that you miss in not buying, is that say you get a place at 1M, and sell it 5 years later for 1M, it seems like you netted out, right? But had you rented for those 5 yrs at roughly 50k a year, you would be down $250k. (correct me if I'm wrong here. It's a simplistic example w/o fees)

LP1 : extraordinarily simple.....fees, fees fees..maintenance, taxes, closing costs, opportunity cost, use of funds..etc..etc...check out the buy/rent math threads