Crains: Residential contract signings soar in August

reducing inventory and driving up prices.

real estate, stocks, commodities, credit markets, etc all live under one headline which everyone seems to have forgotten....Don't Fight the Fed....remember 1 year ago when that was discussed but dismissed. Always follow that golden rule.

everyone keeps protesting that recovery wont happen without jobs....but don't you think that the government is going to target employment next? first stabilize banks and economy. done. now they are going to spend all their time next year on jobs. so jobs will come even if they come due to artificial stimulous.

where will the jobs be perfitz? Is the govt. going to pay people to dig holes in Central Park?

Never mind. I found the jobs that will be created, 100% of which will be govt. jobs:

Federal Government Needs Massive Hiring Binge, Study Finds

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/02/AR2009090203571.html?hpid=topnews

ZERO private sector jobs will be created by the stimulus package. Mark my words.

recovery first, then companies hire. Good chance that hiring will pickup in a couple of months as companies finalize their 2010 budgets in Oct/Nov.

but nealry every economist is predicting a Jobless Recovery...

I am surprised.

But I'd also note that it is mostly studios that are moving. The medium and high end remain in the doldrums.

How can we have a 'jobless recovery'?

it can happen, as in the last 2 recessions, but there is too much fed money involved in this recovery. I think the risk is weighed towards too strong GDP and inflation.

steveF = idiot

Buy now or be priced out forever!

No it's more like "Sell now or LOSE even more money."

Whenever someone types "Buy now or be priced out forever!" I can't help but think of that Simpsons episode where Bart becomes famous for "I didn't do it!"

The_President says "but nealry every economist is predicting a Jobless Recovery..." EXACTLY

Dont you think that those in power are hearing that as well? Dont you think that they want to keep their jobs running the free world? These guys are not as dumb as Bush. They are going to put everything they got into creating jobs - tax breaks for companies that hire, govt jobs, funding/entertprise zones for small business.

Just like 2009 was all about "subprime", 2009 was about "recovery and stabilization", 2010 wil be about "jobs"

Just like petrfitz is about calling renters "moron" market-timers, yet is supposedly a wonderful landlord who charges below market-rate out of the goodness of his heart.

i told you this 2 weeks ago and now its starting to hit press and headlines are doing exactly what I thought they would. Sales activity now is considerably less than May-July yet higher than normal for this time of year; volume was way way down September 2008-April2009. Delayed seasonality due to first wave down. Lower prices brought in buyers, hands down. Deals are happening with prices down in comfort zone.

bulls will love the qtr-to-qtr report for next 2 quarters and build bull arguments around that.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/08/expect_quarter_toquarter_impro.html

AUG 21 - "Expect significant quarter-to-quarter improvements when the report comes out in early October and a number of bullish arguments and bottom calls to hit media headlines."

urbandigs, I think part of the point is that the higher activity has been sustained past those initial months. I don't think it lasts much longer (how can it??) but if it takes us through the spring, what then?

well we did around 1000 - 1100 contracts signed a month for a few months as action started. The last 4 week period from Aug 6th to Sep 3rd saw a drop of 166 contracts signed from prior 4 weeks, from 1,011 to 845. So we are seeing a drop off already of some 16%. That number was higher a few 4-wk periods ago, closer to 1150 - 1225 or so.

So already the fierce action AFTER the wave down as confidence returned was not sustainable. However, bulls just will look at headlines and lagging reports to prove their case and predict future sustainable or parabolic activity around that. And they will get the favorable qtr-to-qtr comparisons in the next 2 reports or so. Of course if you compare year over year it will likely paint a different story and prices will still be pressured for a bit. But the spin will look at the relative change from prior quarter, and media as always will run with it and that may have an affect.

UD - I predicted that strong YOY improvements by late fall LAST YEAR........I got attacked for it. Who is closer to being correct me or idiots like NYC10022 who predicted a 50% collapse or AboutREady who predicts a greater than 75% collapse?

pterozitz, you're always predicting Y/Y improvements. Surely you'll be right at some point.

well everyone got attacked really. I got attacked for saying this credit crisis will be quite severe and ultimately hit manhattan..people attacked that late in 2007, early 2008.

nobody is perfect and certainly those predicting a 75% collapse on 1 wave down were wrong, and those saying we were immune or have a floor due to weak dollar, sideline money, foreigners, and limited supply were very wrong. doesnt really matter.

lets just continue to analyze and keep it real without bias

"UD - I predicted that strong YOY improvements by late fall LAST YEAR........I got attacked for it. Who is closer to being correct me or idiots like NYC10022 who predicted a 50% collapse or AboutREady who predicts a greater than 75% collapse?"

You predicted YOY price increases, and couldn't be more wrong:

“This season has seen a dramatic increase in contract activity since a year ago,” said Sofia Kim, vice president of research for Streeteasy.com. “While this seems like very good news for the industry, one has to keep in mind that average prices of these contracts are down 20% from a year ago.” They were also well below the asking prices. For instance, last month signed contract prices for studio apartments were down 13% from original asking prices, according to the CORE report."

Busted!!!!

> Buy now or be priced out forever!

haha. I'm assuming this is meant ironically? "forever...until the next collapse"

tenemental - my prediction was for YOY increases BY LATE FALL, and MANHATTAN PRIME. lets talk again at the end of November

UD - I predicted that strong YOY improvements by late fall LAST YEAR

poor writing--bad paralellism-ambiguous

"doesnt really matter. lets just continue to analyze and keep it real without bias"

urbandigs, thank you. A lot of people want a cookie for their "predictions", which is fine, but please eat your cookie quietly in the corner and come back when you want to actually advance the discussion. That would be nice.

Noah,
As far as I can gather it looks as if Friday and Wednesday are the biggest listing days. What do you think is a bigger listing day Wednesday or Friday?
Thx

i would think Mondays, according to my data.

"Last month saw a 47% spike in the number of contracts signed for homes below $500,000"

Everyone who wants to sell your apartment for less than $500,000, step right up, the line starts right here.

For someone who has better access to the raw data (Noah?) what portion of the total 27% increase was represented by the under $500,000 sales?

PS Notice how no one is talking about "average sales price" any more? It used to be you couldn't find an article without that figure in it. Now you can't find one with it.

"July was actually a record month for two-and-a-half-year-old brokerage Charles Rutenberg, according to the firm's co-founder, Paul Purcell. ***Half of his 300 brokers were getting contracts signed in July and August***, he said."

Gee, half of his agents were doing a deal in 2 months........ so the average agent is doing 3 deals a year? (I know, the one's who are doing substantially more than one skew that upwards, but it is a case of taking a "fact" and making it sound a hell of a lot better than it actually is).

30yrs_

The following Miller Samuel charts, while not breaking up the <$1M market provides some idea of the number of <$500K sales. One chart is for number of sales, the other is for $ volume of sales.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168397931yhNzR&Record=10

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168398636CGNLt&Record=11

Those charts end in June, no?

Also of interest: we've been hearing how th ehigh end has taken it on the chin the worst, but it certainly doesn't look like it from those graphs?

"Also of interest: we've been hearing how the high end has taken it on the chin the worst, but it certainly doesn't look like it from those graphs?"

Remember that those graphs are set up in percentages that total a constant 100%. Since total dollar volume is down YoY, if you multiplied the relatively low percentage of >$4M deals in 2Q09 by total sales revenue, it would look much worse than in the graph.

Um, excuse me....how exactly will we pay for all of these new "jobs" the government will create to make it look like employment is improving? Another trillion dollar stimulus?

Why don't we just put everyone on the payroll? Yeah, that's it. 0% unemployment with everyone's salaries paid for by...everyone.

OMG....the world is not ending...people continue to (gasp) buy real estate in our fair city....the bears must be SHOCKED into silence while they try and rationalize their negative point of view

"Remember that those graphs are set up in percentages that total a constant 100%. Since total dollar volume is down YoY, if you multiplied the relatively low percentage of >$4M deals in 2Q09 by total sales revenue, it would look much worse than in the graph."

I hear with what you are saying, but I don't think that's what has been argued: what I think has been posited is that the high end market is DOING WORSE than the lower end market. That's a relative thing by definition, so it should be reflected in these graphs. And isn't the the second one exaclty what you are talking about?

rationalizing data to ensure their narrow minded bear view is the prominent one on this board

but 30yrs, it could itself be relative. if the number of $6+ million sales, for example, had skyrocketed the last few years, and has now plummeted, the total above $4+ million would change greatly.

what i have been seeing in the comps threads is that highly priced properties, on an individual basis, are trading for much, much less. thereby getting clobbered. but i think you make a good point. viscerally a chop from $6 mil to $4 mil seems very significant, while we market watchers may overlook the $450k to #300k drop. i notice it myself, i've been following the lower level market for a few months now out of curiosity and because a few of our own are looking for studios, and until just recently I didn't see that much in the way of drops in the lower end, but i see them now and they still only impress me if i try to put myself in the shoes of a first-time buyer and realize what those might mean to them.

means a heck of alot to me. I feel like the more the top drops, it moves all buyers up, thus leaving alot of well priced 1br and alcove studio's.

i know marco. i've been seeing some steady declines in the lower end recently. but nothing yet that i'd deem a sufficiently nice shoebox for you.

'SHADOW' demand coming out for blood like vampires in the night. It's here. Deal with it bears.

hahaha..thx AR

"but 30yrs, it could itself be relative. if the number of $6+ million sales, for example, had skyrocketed the last few years, and has now plummeted, the total above $4+ million would change greatly."

but that's what I'm saying: that I don't see that reflected in those charts.