So Now What for Buyers

Lots of people wish they bought stocks in March.

Yeah March 2001. Prices will come down because of supply and demand(depending on area); unemployment and the fear of unemployment.

Agreed. The prices will come down. Note the amount of people retracting the listing. This coming spring would be interesting as bonuses come around with reduced head count.

I'm a potential buyer and confident that prices in NYC will continue down in the next year and beyond. Jobs, or lack thereof, is still the issue and what jobs there are, pay less than they did a few years ago. No, NYC hasn't hit bottom yet.

Prices will go up

Buyers betting on a big rebound will be disappointed.
Sellers selling on a big price decline will be disappointed.

My feeling is this - even if it turns out we have hit a bottom (and I'm not convinced we have), growth in the housing market will be so gradual over the next several years that there will be good (responsible I hope) buying opportunities for an extended period of time.

JIM123 - I tend to agree with you. I would add that everything will be on supply and demand in a particular location - schoold districts will be even more important as parents shy away from private schools, Prewar buildings will see price increases - and I even believe that parents will take less square footage to be in the right school district.

I agree with the above. We'll see a trend toward smaller units that are strategically located. Looking forward two years into the future toward a potential flip will not be a factor. Well run buildings with low maintenace fees will be a plus.

Prices have been rising since this summer started. The trend higher will continue. The Great Recession is over. It was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a score.

Stock market was fully recovered from Black Monday by the end of 1987. Real estate didn't bottom until 1993. There is nothing to miss here. People think it sounds tough and cool to be against the consensus. For one, bearish on real estate is still far from the consensus. Two, the consensus can be right for a long time before its wrong. Try 2004 to 2008 where bull was consensus but it kept rising. Give me a fucking break. Give it up. Real estate is dead in the water for 10 years, just like 1988 to 1998 was flat. That's right flat. Check the history books bitches.

Riversider
about 3 hours ago
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Sellers selling on a big price decline will be disappointed.

This is so PC and balanced. There is an argument for flat. There is an argument for down. The choice is clear. Flat or down means walk away. At least give rents and incomes a fighting chance to claw back the lead prices opened up during the credit orgy.

Just started to ignore rhino.

SteveF, you are now my favorite douchebag. That is such a flip ignorant statement. I fucking love it. Hats off to you. My favorite part of it is that prices have risen this summer. Not only is it false anecdotally, but the data to support it isn't even out yet. Yet you drop the bomb with such panache.

Thanks Jim. Not that being known on here is any great shakes, but being brand new and broadcasting you are ignoring me...that's pretty useless is it not. I wonder what part of the historical reality of the 1990s real estate market turned you off...douche.

Rhino, I tend to agree with your opinions, but sheesh, do you have to make everything so personal?

the few places that im interested in midtown east have SOLD in the last few weeks.....which is concerning.....goodprices but def not bargain basement.

One thing I've noticed here is that the bears tend to make things personal and resort to cursing out and insulting anyone that has a difference of opinion. I'm not sure why that is the case.

Rhino, you could've scored in this spring but prices have def started moving higher. How could you doubt that? Equity markets are up 50%. Credit markets are losey goosey(look at Ted Spread it's below 20 bps!!). The last piece, employment is bottoming now as it always does at the end of a recession. HOW BLIND CAN YOU BE NOT TO SEE THAT THE MANHATTAN MARKET IS SURGING HIGHER!?!

this goes both ways for sure.

the whole bulls and bears stuff is kind of frustrating.

may have made sense when unemployment wasn't 9+%.

how can you not think that re prices are going down in this environment? where are the positive signs?

cc..please see above.

i see that the stock market is way up. i saw that before you told us.

still down roughly 35 % from peak?

yes, cc but don't you think that people are smart enough to say "hey wait a minute, that was the closest we've ever come to a depression since 1929 and now this depression/recession is ending and I am still not an owner? odds strongly favor higher prices. I better not wait any longer." That's my take on it.

What's financial industry unemployment in manhattan? Double that easy.

are these people to whom you're referring employed or unemployed? and, if they're employed, how worried are they about being unemployed?

SteveF you really think prices are "surging"? It seems incredible that a case could be made for doing anything more than modestly increasing. If you could make that case. Real estate is SLOW.

And to the Rhino guy calling everyone a douche, what's with that? When did the appropriate insult switch from tool to douche?

Well, SteveF, I still find it hard to deny that NYC real estate tends to be a lagging indicator. Rhino, for all his bluster, is right to point out that, after the 1987 crash, the stock market recovered within a year, the economy recovered within 5, and NYC real estate did not recover for more than 10.

Is there any reason why this crash should be different?

Prices are surging? Yes stock prices surged to minus 35 percen from peak. Real estate is far from surging. Now deny these facts steve. Stock markets have false rallies and even when they are true rallies manhattan prices can fall for three more years. Read a book of you can't recall 1987 through 1993.

It's fine to have an opinion. It's bullshit to say prices moved higher this summer. You are a liar and a piece of shit steve.

Post,
YES!! Look at the inventory after 87!! That tsunami of new construction/conversion inventory needed tobe absorbed. inventory was 5X what it was then as it is now. Crime wasl also about 5X as worse too combined with a cold war ending recession.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1132752161iuzhS&Record=6

sunder, I didn'y say prices were surging. I said activity was surging. But prices are def moving higher as inventory is absorbed.

Piece of shit, douche all good stuff right Rhino, if steveF is gay you'll call him homosexual too when you argue

That's an interesting theory, Steve. Still not convinced, for the following reasons:

1) There was certainly a lot of overbuilding in the past decade, and there are a lot of empty apartments in NYC now that are not counted as "inventory" for the simple reason that they aren't listed - the so-called "shadow inventory". My understanding is that, if you count the shadow inventory, you have to double or triple the stated amount of inventory.

2) Yes, crime rates have improved, but a permanent trend towards lower crime rates was already built into NYC real estate prices by the time the third season of "Friends" aired. And now, with city/state budget cuts and higher unemployment, crime rates will likely get worse at least for a few years.

Yes steve but prices bottomed at one tenth of current and you are exagerrating crime. Price to rent ratio bottomed at less than half current and surely rents capture some of the horror you exagerrate about 1990s manhattan. Don't you see this is the NASDAQ at 4000 down from 5000....2000 ten years later. Enfuckingjoy it.

Ps call 1991 a deeper recession than this and make it easier to call you a dope.

Wills, it's ok I'm used to the name calling. But to be honest, I do have an interest in Manhattan prices going higher otherwise I wouldn't be the investor I am. I've believed since day 1 that Manhattan was neve a subprime market and would weather this national storm admirably. Which it has. But there are those who hope for the worst to othere so they can benefit. I, on the otherhand, hope for the best in others so we all can benefit. Now wwho's really the POS here.Me or Rhino

evidence that manhattan has weathered the storm?

It's only down 30 percent and already surging. Steve you are out for yourself. So is everyone else. I hope you are just talking your book and you aren't as dumb as you sound.

We all have an agenda. It's not about who's interested in being right. It's about who's right.

Post, ok, some good points too. I think there was "shadow" inventory back then too. Just alot more. You sound like a smart guy who might be ready to make a purchase. I think now is a pretty good time still. Armageddon, as Noah over at UD said, is priced out but I still think you can score a good deal with a some searching. Regards

Mattresses at Macy's go 60% off. If Manhattan residential real estate prices drop 30%, is that really a big deal? On the one hand you could have lost a good deal of money. On the other hand, you are the type who bought during the Thanksgiving Day Sale, bought right. So 30% down is hardly a big deal. Doom and gloomers who think that the first Apple iPhone price cut was an embarassment for the first run buyers don't quite get what motivates people and how opportunities come about.

It's also about who is already right and wrong. Those who said this market couldn't fall 25 percent are wrong. Those who claim it's surged this summer are lying. Those who pretend the nineties didn't happen as they did are ignorant.

Down 30% where..luxury, downtown, studios,etc.. My comps for my MidWest studios were at their worst down 5-7% on miniscule sales volume back at the height of the recession/fear(march 09). Now my comps are up about3-5% since then.

oh come on...that's silly and i'm sure you know it. check out the many threads here about comps. are you really trying to say that nothing is down or are you nitpicking?

Well, well. It's about who is right and wrong. Since the market reality is already baked in, the only thing left can be ego.

huh?

Huh is right. As is huh to anyone who claims this market is only down five to seven percent. Goodnight all. Again this is not pessimism for it's own sake. Manhattan should be as affordable as the 90s relative to incomes and rents.

Oh don't be another hostile idiot. Read and think.

Touché, dgerry. ;)

i read, i thought, i still don't get it.

He's making fun of the way I said what I said. Actually the important part of the debate is the substance - i.e., which viewpoint is right. But I said the important part was which of us is right, which would not so much be the substance but our egos striving against each other. Hence, touché.

bulls here tend to be optimistic, a bit on the cheerleading side, and maybe a bit in denial, but entitled to their opinions

bears are also equally entitled to their opinion, but tend to act very hostile towards anyone differing in their opinion and resort to personal attacks calling people douchebags, say "fuck-off", "piss-off", and so on...

Prices are where they are. 25% down. 30% down. Maybe only 20% down. Maybe as much as 40% down. They are what they are. Reality can't be denied by logical people. It is what it is. A statement like "It's also about who is already right and wrong. Those who said this market couldn't fall 25 percent are wrong." is only made for the sake of the ego, for someone who needs to prove a point. Ego

Post87, unless you are Rhino86, no, my comment was not directed at you, although I'll take a look in more detail at what you said.

agree nycgal1 - it's unfortunate that extremists have to present views, even legitimate ones, in such a caustic and aggressive way. it makes it difficult to pay attention to their points of view.

Is it ego to establish a starting point? My statement was directed at steve who said prices are down five to seven. Is it ego on your part to claim that is ego on my part. I think so. Or maybe that's my ego talking. The holier than thou contest is somewhere else. You should find it.

I just saw a property that was listed last november and taken off the market in April. Is back today with a 20% cut. Properties will come back to the market with discounts.

Is it ego to establish a starting point? Although hard to figure out the question you are actually asking, I'll go with no

My statement was directed at steve who said prices are down five to seven.
Is it ego on your part to claim that is ego on my part. I think so. I disagree. I'm not even sure I see how your point of view makes any sense.

Or maybe that's my ego talking.

The holier than thou contest is somewhere else. You should find it. Oh, how many names did you call your opponents in this one page alone?

You specifically say it is more important who is right than what is right.

dgerrymain, you make some really articulate points. Cheers.

this is getting very creepy. more new posters just trashing people with no point of view other than other posters are wrong.

Isn't Rhino's main point of view that other posters are wrong and he is correct? I offer his own words "It's also about who is already right and wrong."

no...his main point of view is that the market is down not up. and, if i may speak for him, he is frustrated in the extreme by posters who claim that the market is up without offering any evidence of any kind.

Ok. Here it is. A blog is all about ego. Even for those who accuse others of being all about ego. Further, prices are down 30 percent and they have not surged. That's me not from ego but for the purpose of calling steve a liar.

The market is what it is, prices are what they are. Rhino SAYS that it also about who is right. So as I said, since the market reality is already baked in, the only thing left can be ego.

Steve being wrong or right is irrelevant to your ego. You needing to prove WHO is (and has been) right, rather than sticking with WHAT is right.

If the market has baked it in why be here other than to call people predicting the future trite. Thanks for the pop psychology and efficent market hypothesis fo dummies.

about 2 hours ago
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Prices have been rising since this summer started. The trend higher will continue. The Great Recession is over. It was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a score.

I agree stevef claims are superfluous and inaccurate. 7% down from last year? Going up already? About to surge? Gimme a break...

Rhino86
2 minutes ago
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If the market has baked it in why be here other than to call people predicting the future trite. Thanks for the pop psychology and efficent market hypothesis fo dummies.

You are using words I have not used and making assumptions not evidenced by my statements.

Once again, your ego actually seems more important than your position.

does the real estate market in the west village or soho or tribeca have to follow the stock market?

I'm above all this ego bullshit and just to prove it I am going to log in and tell you how above it all I am. And then to step back into my own character Gerry I am going to call you a douchebag. Prices are down. When the go up the bulls can be right. Not a moment or steve delusion sooner. Yes th bears are more chafed here from ten years of stupidity. So at the least we will no tolerate steve making shit up. We will also keep pointing out the role of credit in the bubble and the 1990s realities.

Calling all sane buyers...YOU NEED TO LIVE SOMEPLACE? N'est pas...how much are you shelling our monthly on rent? Prices are the lowest they have been in years. Interest rates are rising. The market will leave you in the dust and you'll be crying...betchya you bottom fishers will still be waiting for the bottom 2010 and 2011. So what if you don't catch the low of lows...You buy a home to live in and enjoy. If you do that now you will not be sorry you did so in 5 to 10 years. And yes, you will make money.5 years is the minimum you should plan on owing any home. Shorter...RENT.

by the way columbiacounty, I disagree with that statement you reposted from steveF.

it is as wrong as Rhino who believes that it is more important who is right than the actual facts.

Ah, now Rhino is a "we"

what does that mean?

if you disagree with a statement from stevef--perhaps you should direct that to him, not me.

Rhino, how about a peace offering. Since we both agree that prices are down, and I think we both agree that prices will continue to decline, if I tell you how smart you are and how it's all about YOU being right and YOU being smart, can we be friends? Will you let me associate with YOU who are so smart?

Ok gerry. Get off my ego for a millisec and dispute any fact I have stated. One. One inaccuracy of history or the Present market. One. If not shut the fuck up.

how about this one?

rokerage101
4 minutes ago
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Calling all sane buyers...YOU NEED TO LIVE SOMEPLACE? N'est pas...how much are you shelling our monthly on rent? Prices are the lowest they have been in years. Interest rates are rising. The market will leave you in the dust and you'll be crying...betchya you bottom fishers will still be waiting for the bottom 2010 and 2011. So what if you don't catch the low of lows...You buy a home to live in and enjoy. If you do that now you will not be sorry you did so in 5 to 10 years. And yes, you will make money.5 years is the minimum you should plan on owing any home. Shorter...RENT.

columbiacounty
less than a minute ago
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if you disagree with a statement from stevef--perhaps you should direct that to him, not me.

Ok then, if a statement is from stevef, perhaps you should not repost it under your name.

were you confused that i was saying it?

columbiacounty
1 minute ago
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what does that mean?

columbiacounty, I don't normally assume others are idiots. I won't assume you are an idiot. I'll assume you think you are good at goading. ... and if I'm wrong, well, ...

hilarious...all you have done here is criticize others. have you offered anything? nope.

about 6 hours ago
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report abuse So as a prospective buyer....what now.....seems like the bears are still sayin wait till next year or 2011.....is this still the going consensus...that prices will be coming down....i know urbandigs posts that he expects a bit of an increase and then a drop in perhaps 2 yrs.....FEELING like the drop occurred and the best time to buy was in the last few months......anyone else feel like we might have missed the boat here?

columbiacounty
1 minute ago
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were you confused that i was saying it?

Did you think I was confused that you were saying it?
Especially since I said "by the way columbiacounty, I disagree with that statement ***you reposted from steveF.***"

Gerry find one fact I have posted that is factually incorrect. It's funny that fluffy pop psychologists like yourself draw cheerleaders. Meanwhile neither you nor those cheerleaders have any point than the obvious. This point is that arguments on chat boards can get personal and people get attached to their views. Thanks captain obvious. Oh such insight. We are not worthy.

columbiacounty, I've scanned this thread and haven't seen anything you've contributed

repost from me:

columbiacounty
1 minute ago
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hilarious...all you have done here is criticize others. have you offered anything? nope.

Rhino86
4 minutes ago
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Ok gerry. Get off my ego for a millisec and dispute any fact I have stated. One. One inaccuracy of history or the Present market. One. If not shut the fuck up.

But Rhino86, I thought it was about who is right, not what is right.

columbiacounty, as I said before, (I'm reposting), stop being a hostile idiot.

I think you're here to bait and offer nothing. Fair enough. Well done.

i thought that comment was for rhino. didn't know that you were including me.

No, it was solely for you and your "huh?"

Ps. Way to side step. You said I was wrong on facts. I asked which and you double talked. Feel good?

try again:

dgerrymain
38 minutes ago
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Post87, unless you are Rhino86, no, my comment was not directed at you, although I'll take a look in more detail at what you said.

Rhino, what have you offered? You argue with your "favorite douche". You really think anyone thinks that steveF's market point of view is anything but bullshit? No.

But, you want credit for being smart, so you argue with the easiest person to argue with, and then you want everyone to tell you how smart you are ... "It's also about who is already right and wrong." Yeah great, you are right against a person who whose obviousness is so apparent to everyone here but you.

2 minutes ago
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try again:

dgerrymain
38 minutes ago
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Post87, unless you are Rhino86, no, my comment was not directed at you, although I'll take a look in more detail at what you said.

I didn't say you were wrong of facts. I said you were wrong on your need to prove how right you are, "It's also about who is already right and wrong."

time to disappear and reappear as yet another poster.

columbiacounty are YOU Post87?