So Now What for Buyers

are you done with this identity?

columbiacounty, I get that Rhino needs to support his ego. As annoying as it is, it is a natural part of human nature.
I have never understood people who only want to be hostile and don't even have a unique point of view.

and i don't understand why you keep changing names. oh well. talk to me in a week if you're still around--which we both know you won't be.

columbiacounty, please tell me one unique and thoughtful point of view that you have on real estate?

columbiacounty
2 minutes ago
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and i don't understand why you keep changing names. oh well. talk to me in a week if you're still around--which we both know you won't be.

please tell me one unique and thoughtful point of view that you have on real estate?

Tell us one unique past experience. Anything. Tell us something about real estate. Show us something that is differentiated from your anger at the world.

come on angry guy

at least Rhino has a point of view on real estate.

Come on. Have you ever lived in New York?

Were you a renter? How did that go?

Did you own? How did that go?

Did you rent and own and all the time you were angry?

how about it columbiacounty. Have you ever offered a solid, supportable point of view? It's ok, I'll let you be like a Rhino for these purposes, you can co-mingle your point of view with your ego or your nastiness.

But come on, lets see some unique, defensible point of view.

Don't be afraid. The worst is you could have a silly point of view like SteveF.
But at least you'll have a point of view that is distinct from your anger.

Let's hear it.

Assholes all

No? Nothing?

agreed...worst a-holes definately rhino86 and columbiacounty. unbeilevalble that they cant a. see the writing on the wall (their depression is not going to happen) and b. failing that, at least express their point of view in a civil manner (like post87). losers both

at least Rhino87 has a point of view. Columbiacounty doesn't seem to have any point of view. He likes to back up Rhino though, effectively with calls of "yeah", which is all fine and good for a limited time, but some time Rhino is going to go his own way and columbiacounty will be exposed as the hyper weakling on the schoolyard with nothing to show for himself.

Oh well, I guess if columbiacounty's strategy was to bore me with his intellect and disgust me with his lack of personal conviction, he wins for this evening.

if you cant express a point of view without using the words "douche" and "shithead", calling people who disagree with you stupid, etc...honestly i dont know what it is tolerated by the board administrator.

An interesting thread hijacked by these angry newcomers. dgerry, you are out.

it was hijacked by the likes of columbiacounty and rhino early on as soon as they began to participate in it, as they cant do that without insults

Where are my facts wrong, Gerrys kids? When you cant participate or back up your statements, fall back on self important bullshit. Far be it from us bears to react with a little piss and vinegar to Steves outright lies.

Come on people. There are no bull or bears they are just the costumes of the moment depending on you own personal analysis. Under those costumes range a collection of everything from jackasses to thoughtful handsome Menza members with great personal sexual energy such as myself but, I digress.

I believe it's spelled "Mensa".

hard to believe that I'm a member huh?
How about the sex part...believe that?

Bridges for sale!
Bridges for sale!

Mimi- must like only talking to people like yourself "angry newcomers" this is some sort of weird club? Only the "in people" have anything to say or can be accepted? Yea, and you'll be looking for your townhouse in Harlem for the next 20 years, because you will not pay market

I see not many substantive points have been raised in the past few hours. However, there was one, from jimhones, who says the bears are wrong because "their depression is not going to happen".

Part of my point has always been that there doesn't have to be a depression in order for prices to drop considerably. If I think, for instance, that 2003 prices would be about right, well, there wasn't a depression in 2003. Ergo returning to 2003 prices would not necessarily mean a depression.

I think the place where the "bulls" and "bears" differ is on whether the increase in NYC real estate prices during the bubble actually reflected anything close to economic reality. In my opinion, NYC real estate (like real estate elsewhere in the country) was substantially overpriced because of speculation and cheap money, and there never really was (and won't soon be) enough demand to fill them all at current asking prices. The bulls, obviously, differ in that they think NYC has (or soon will have) enough wealthy people for the market to absorb all those empty condos within a year or two, at or near current asking prices.

There's no sense in getting angry at each other. We'll know in a year or two.

just examined this thread.
dgerry,
other than bitching and complaining I have yet to read an entry anywhere on this thread where you had something to add reguarding RE. I did not quantify smart or dumb....I'm talking ANYTHING!!!
So you pulled a new screen name. Congrats! Go back and starch up that noodle and meet me back here when you got more than a little social commentry. OK pretend your new, here's some advice...GROW A SKIN! don't be such a pussy. I say this to you as if we are friends.

Exactly on Gerry...

Exactly on 2003...though anything from 1998 to 2003 prices could be justfied. One correction - easy credit is part of economic reality. It made financial folk earn more with their firms leveraged to the hilt and allowed them to borrow more. That reality has changed. We will know in a year or two. Maybe there are more people with money outside the financial industry than I know or appreciate, who can afford these places now that they're down 25-30%. I doubt the discount is enough to pull enough buyers back in. Current buyers are using money "borrowed" from the boom time. Wealth generation and creation of new buyers is crawling.

Rhino,

Reality has changed in so many ways. It's a much different place economically since fall of 08. We won't see boom years in real estate for quite a long time.

Sure never mind peak prices. We're only talking about how low this market needs to go to hit bottom. Without even making a value judgement, the nation itself is turning aggressive toward wealth, reversing what's been going on since Reagan. Retail is awful. I could see 2003 prices....I could see 1998 prices. Japan suffered a 70% decline. We can't rule that out. I'd guess 50% because its a round number. I feel, however, both in time (one year) and depth (25%) its not logical to expect this to end here...No less SURGE like Stevie claims. He literally brough back buy now or be priced out forever...Took it out of the trunk and dusted it off.

Real estae cycles typically last about twenty years. They do not correct smoothly or overnight. I would not be amazed to see occasional upward blips in pricing. It's going to be a long ride.

This who's the nicer posters thing is amusing. Kind of like newt being from the party endorsing family values as he divorces his wife who has cancer. Some of those who are making the claims ought to review their own contributions. Stevef has been wrong for years. Markman had an interesting piece the other day. High stock prices are occurring because things are so bad that investors assume monetary policy will remain lax. Id be very hesitant to draw any connection between investment patterns and housing in these times of excessive liquidity.

I was under the impression that this recent increase in sales had to do with buyers taking advantage of more realistic seller pricing. In other words, sellers decreased their prices and buyers liked the pricing and bought. We will have to see what happens if sellers decide to once again increase their prices. Will there be another buyer standoff like last fall/winter?

Whats realistic today may not be realistic tomorrow. We have used up a lot of buyers at this price level and the inventory is still high. Do we need another leg down to draw in enough buyers to absorb inventory is the question. No one is raising prices yet. That's Steve's bullshit.

I dont think theres enough buyers left. definitely not enough to support the high end. you have low end buyers like myself that are waiting, but I really dont think theres that many left. but we shall see. gonna be rough couple months till comp numbers come out in december

Some people will get paid this year... Question is do they already own. The bubble itself took a lot of people into the world of ownership...Then this echo bubble of activity lately took more. I dont know where all the buyers are supposed to come from. This nascent downturn in prices turned a lot of would be buyers into waiters too.

thats what Ive been saying..the carnage on the street has really left only the same people that have getting paid all along. so yes there will be money made in december, but most of it will be repeat money, and with only only marginal new money. and you can bet ur a$$ theres isnt going to be a mad rush to lock it up into RE. liquidity is key

It seems you and I are on the same page. The only way we are wrong is if more people in other industries make and/or save more than I give them credit...and if those same people are renters...and if they are inclined to buy at these prices. Also, it has not been discussed that the more the stock market goes up and the more real estate goes down, the more that action will continue. I see no reason why 2008 should be considered anything other than 1988. Blah blah the city is safer. That's why prices are up 800% already.

Real estae cycles typically last about twenty years. They do not correct smoothly or overnight. I would not be amazed to see occasional upward blips in pricing. It's going to be a long ride.

Entirely correct. Real estate transactions are slow and hence the market cycle is slow. A upturn for a few months in real estate is like an up day in the stock market during an otherwise bad set of months. There are other factors at play when you have a 3 months real estate movement.

I'm a buyer too and I'm actively looking to buy the apartment that I fall in love with- I'm not waiting, but I'm also in no rush. I sold my old apartment pre-recession & am renting now. I know I'm going to get A LOT better deal than I would have last summer so why pass on something great because the price may (or may not) go down more. The problem is that there's nothing GOOD on the market! Every other apartment I've seen is listed as "unique" which I've decided is just code for weird. And the decent apartments are still deliriously overpriced, especially the new-construction sitting there empty (what's up with that???). I won't even look at something over 1,200sq/ft right now.

I do think, however, that I'm in the rare opportunistic position of being a renter who can put at least 50% down which means I have no difficulty securing financing. People who need to sell first before they buy are in trouble & the banks are very tight fisted these days.

Lases, if you have a very long time horizon (say, 20+ years), and a secure income, and 50% down, and you're sure you won't ever need more housing than you're buying, then it is hard to argue with you. I don't think there are too many buyers like you on the market, though.

i dont think money is coming from anywhere else. wall street and law firms make the most $$. aside from bankruptcy law, law firms are getting crushed. we know ad revenues are down so that takes out advertising and PR. I agree that there still are some people out there wih cash, but given the state of the rental market and that there wont be any significant hiring in the city until sometime in 2010 at best, it seems that RE should be toast, but Im also wise enough to know that when you think you have the trade totally figured out, thats when it blows up in ur face, so who knows LOL

I have three buildings tagged and if units come on that I like (bedrooms and layout/view/light) and the prices are in the range that I think I can negotiate for my ultimate price, then I'll go and start the process. Isn't that how most people do it?

NO sint... you look at where we were.. where we are headed... to pull the trigger irregardless all that surrounds you is to be well, a little moronic no?

jimhones09, dgerrymain, stoogie... r you guys/gals finished circle jerking each other? fine, clean up the mess and get thee to your open houses!!!!! Remember which key! Remember how your grandma taught you, always color code!

I'm with w67thstreet on that buyside POV, irregardless of his grammar.

What an absolutely beautiful day and weekend. So nice, I bet columbiacounty is out there being angry.

mimi, I'm out of what?

Rhino86, good one on the Gerry's Kids. Coming from a guy whose name is Rhino ... is that because you are a former weightlifter, football player or rugby player who has gotten soft? Or is it about your nose?

falcogold, thanks for the advice. Did you know rhinos have thick skins? Please also give your advice to this Rhino86 so he can be as his species are expected to be. You know, a guy who always needs to be recognized for being right ("It's also about who is already right and wrong.") hardly can be considered as having thick skin.

w67thstreet thanks for your grandma's tips on the keys, but I'm not a broker.

never met my grandmas.. both passed away bf my birth. Same with grandpas....

In my country.. if you live pass 60, you getz yourself a great old party.....

Thats really cool w67. Some societies are more laid back that us. Here these days we should wish for that. You just have to continue working and eventually you have to face the new government death panels in healthcare.

Laura Bush, i hear the I-Banks are creating death panels and GOD help the "insured" if they havent' "paid out" to meet the Banker's IRR, you thought the Sopranos were brutal, at least they had a Coda

did you seriously just use the term 'death panels' laura1111? are you kidding me? so sarah palin coins a phrase and that makes it TRUE??? oh please! anyone who listens to ANYTHING that woman says needs serious mental help. i'm so glad she quit as governor of alaska b/c i sleep better at night knowing she will NEVER EVER be president now.

Alaska is not connected to the United States and there is a reason for that. Canada.
Canada has a health care system not compatible with our health care, and hence the disconnect between Americans and Sarah Palin.

look at the life expetancy of other countries compared to ours laura1111....it is shameful that we don't have universal free healthcare for all citzens, from birth till death. and if you want to know what i think should pay for that and other things we need????? legalize and tax the hell out of marijuana (as a starter)

Good idea Eastside broker!
Fox and the republican's lies (death panels!!!) are so blatant and so far out I feel in the twilight zone when I hear them. Soon we'll have martian movies with bad green little Obamas taking over the USA, killing elders and brainwashing our kids with Mao's teachings. They are reaching an all-time lower level. Sad to witness it.

Repealing the 1st time home buyer tax credit and mortgage interest tax deduction would be too good ideas. The cash for clunkers and old appliances was also wasted. Won't even talk about some of the silly research grants in Pelosi's spendulous package. Look how our elected officials are wasting money when they know they have a health care agenda.

I agree with legalization of marijuana, even though I am not and have not been a pot smoker.

But, we have to come to terms with the fact that we have legalized and taxed cigarette smoking and all the time I hear calls for making cigarette smoking illegal.

So, legal pot, illegal cigarettes?

mimi, it's called Soylent Green. It's People.

let's legalize postitution, gambeling and dog fighting while we're at it. We will put it all out on Governors Island and rename the place 'Not in my back yard island'.

Shovel ready sustainability!!!
Jobs for people.

NYC needs to think about what kind of industries can substitute for financial services. Ignoring the silly suggestions, gambling makes a great deal of sense to me. It should be possible to bring Casino gambling to Manhattan in some form. With NYC access, our world class restaurants and Broadway shows to boot, this could really bring money into the local economy.

Wall Street area could be a great incubator for small internet based businesses. Rents certainly should be relatively cheap with Wall Street firms vacating.

"NYC needs to think about what kind of industries can substitute for financial services. "

Yeah either that, or simply go back to 1990s budgets, incomes and real estate prices. Oh wait that is already in progress.

I wonder how much money we'd save if NYC didn't buy failed Condos, extend the #7 train or told the municipal workers they had to switch to a 401K plan like the rest of us.

bringing gambling to Manhattan would destory it and turn it into a ghetto. Just look at Atlantic City, it's an absolute horrible place to live.

New York is not Atlantic City.

Gambling on NOT IN MY BACK YARD ISLAND!

Ferry on over for a few drinks with friends. Little dinner and off to the casinos for a few hands of 21 before the show starts. We got tickets to see Billy Joel/Madonna 80's spectacular. After the show the girls are tired so they take the ferry back. We stop over at a coffee house for an expresso pick-me-up and a fat 'legal' dubbie (picks u up/calms u down). Want to go home? How 'bout a quick stop over at the 'legal' Bunny Ranch East for a final tug on the stress reduction leaver before we head over to the ferry.

Oh the satisfaction of broadening the tax base through sustainable employment in the service industry sector. Why can't this town be great.

All this stuff would be great...in Long Island City.

"bringing gambling to Manhattan would destory it and turn it into a ghetto. Just look at Atlantic City, it's an absolute horrible place to live."

Atlantic City wasn't turned into that because of casinos: it was like that and wasn't SAVED by casinos.

I think the plan (Trump?) to turn Governor's Island into "casino land" might not be a bad idea. Not like there's anything to ruin there (aside from some historical structures, which could be maintained even with a casino plan)

Gambling destroys lives and also is a regressive tax.

Never understood why atlantic city doesn't run ferries from the nyc water taxi ports.

I can't see gaming in NYC ever, but if they did it.....hello Rockaway Beach!

Ever heard of Monte Carlo?

Wall Street IS gambling. Placing money (not your own, there's the catch) on bets and hoping to quit while you're ahead. Which we know gamblers never do.

BTW I am also a prospective buyer - about to close on my sale, Inshallah, planning to rent, sit on the cash from my sale, and wait for something in my tagged buildings. Downsizing, so no need to worry about more space. Will pay cash, so no need to worry about income. Not looking at anything with stairs, so I can stay a long time.