no flood of new listings post labor day = low traffic at SE?

Just this week I was thinking that two factors will slow the beginning of the season.

The first is that it takes time to add inventory. Second is that the post labor-day market might be somewhat delayed as all the jewish holidays fall on a Weekend this year. Rosh Hashannah starts this coming Friday night and goes through the weekend, Yom Kippur is the Sunday night of the weekend following, and the two weekends following that are also holidays (Sukkoth and Simhat Torah). Any Orthodox jews and any others who observe these will probably wait to start their open houses, etc. (or visiting open houses) until after the holidays.

all the usual posters are out buying apartments

never weak again ;-)

Yes AvUWS, and don't forget about Jupiter being in line with Neptune this week too that always screws up things too..

you know joe, at first I was inclined to agree. You probably read me complaining about the inventory flood and it's tardiness. The last few days there has been a flurry of new listing in my search catagory. The pricing is still very optimistic as new sellers hit the ground running with their asks well above what a competent 'comper' would price to sell. The mood is that, hey baby, the equities market has made it back as did the value of my home so, pay up! these mutually exclusive entities often get compared as if the stock market had some kind of direct correlation to the economy. Could there really be any other way?
As usual, these sellers will need time to breath the either of reality or, I'm wrong and, buyers will once again lock antlers at open houses as they bid these tiny piecies of RE into the stratisphere.

Joedavis: I think the low talk volume is because most were spot on accurate. Inventory is heading upward. I think I specifically called Sept 8 as the bottom in inventory, and wow...check this chart....sank you, I be here all z week.

http://www.urbandigs.com/charts.html

Inventory is up in my searches.

Mine as well. And price cuts as well.

Yes there is an uptick in inventory, but not sure if it is due to the Prudential Elliman farce of relisting things still
My saved listings are not growing, i.e., if anything has shown up that is interesting, an equal number has gone off the market

Looking for Noah
Ahem, the flood

Definitely on the way up as prices descend.

joedavis, in my case, no Prudential relistings. I definitely got more places coming to the market and fewer going off. Strange, considering that we both look in the same neigborhood.

Waiting for the crash....waiting for the crash....next month...next quarter.....next year..........

JM, has the little one limited your ability/time to read the comps threads? i feel like i'm live-blogging a disaster as it's happening.

I've not noticed many new listings in my areas. My thought was that the stuff that's already listed isn't moving, so unless you're desesperado, you'll stay put. I may be wrong though; wouldn't be the first time.

Nothin' new my search in Williamsburg.. Same pile of developments, resales don't seem to be moving.

Mimi: any reason you bypassed Hamilton Heights and are concentrating on Harlem?

I've seen some new listings recently in Harlem, although they haven't yet made up for all the listings that were pulled near the end of August. I have however seen some older listings drop recently, but I see closed sales from the summer that are much higher than I would have expected.
We made a lowball offer about a month ago, which may have just been accepted. We may be getting the place for around 100K less than it was bought for a few years ago.

nyc10023, I don't live in NYC these days, so when I go I prefer to be closer to where the action is. If I live there permanently, I would possibly consider to buy farther up. I fell in love with Harlem, and, before Mattboy trashes it once again, I spent several weeks there and yes, you have to put up with certain things that are not for everybody, but is still very beautiful and lively and humane and vibrant.

Ham. Heights doesn't seem that much further than Harlem and there are some real architectural beauties up there. But services don't compare (so far) to Harlem. I would go for brownstone Brooklyn over Harlem though.

125th is 10 minutes from 42nd St, and you don't have to cross the waters. How can you beat that?
I find Harlem more interesting in general. But, since I am passionate about it, I lack objectivity.
Why would you choose Brooklyn? and which neighborhood?

I like the Cobble Hill/Boerum Hill area. Retail, restaurants better than Harlem. It has already "up and come". But of course, your $ goes further in Harlem.

The L train is annoying, but there are also rowhouses in Williamsburg. Ditto Greenpoint (though hypochondriac that I am, the oil spill bugs me).

In my searches, inventory up -- way up.

And every broker's got some silly story about why their seller isn't desperate. Yeah, right. I don't really care if your seller is desperate; the market is.

I have to say, though, some are impressive in the way they attempt to telegraph this.

One nice thing about Boerum Hill is the transportation nexus at Atlantic Avenue.

"In my searches, inventory up -- way up.

And every broker's got some silly story about why their seller isn't desperate. Yeah, right. I don't really care if your seller is desperate; the market is.

I have to say, though, some are impressive in the way they attempt to telegraph this."

They very well may not be. It is entirely possible that the reason for increased inventory is that sellers are ready all the "good" news, filtering out the "bad" news (kust the same as buyers, it's just the opposite of which they call which) and placing their units on the market because they think they are going to be able to get the prices they wanted last year. And when they don't get them, they will take them off the market.

Of course, if this is happening, there's no way of filtering the 'real' listings (defining real as people who are intent on selling and will sell at whatever it takes rather than being willing to sit and if they don't get what they want, pull the listing and call it a day) for the "fishers", and it will seriously screw with the validity of all the stats people love so much. In statistics, we would call that "noise". But often, you can't filter the noise. i would say that it is entirely possible we have a situation where the signal-to-noise ratio may make all the numbers worthless.

To bolster that argument: the guy who owns the office where I keep my desk has always said there are 5 motivating factors for sellers: marriage, birth, death, divorce and change in job circumstances. I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden there's been a huge spike in those 5 things (well, expect unemployment, but even there I don't think the spike is September 2009). So, if that really is the case, you probably Do have an awful lot of unmotivated sellers coming on the market. One reason I think this is true is that if someone were truly motivated to sell their unit earlier this year, they wouldn't have pulled it off the market, even though things looked bleak or they weren't getting enough traffic or whatever: they would have figured out what needed to be done to get that sucker sold and moved on. but they didn't: they pulled it off the market. And if what we are seeing is a lot of the same stuff coming back at the same asking prices, I would wager that the results are going to be the same.

As you can see, (some of) the large brokerage houses are making it hard to track this by not putting unit numbers on these new lisings. But what would be very interesting to know is what percentage of this "new" stock has been on the market before and what is "extra virgin".

30yrs,
As always, quite insightful.
You raise an interesting point wrt the elimination of apartment numbers. This has extended to the ommision of floor plans as well as other pertinant data. SE would better serve our needs if they began to motify their sight to allow posters to add information. I'm not sure how this might work out but, if I knew what apartment a posting was I would like to add that info or, for that matter add additional information regarding a properety. It would be great if this information was available for longer archival time. this might make year comparison more interesting and valuable. An endless archive of floor plans would also be great to those who have made this more than a hobby.

SE appreciates feedback. You can send them info (change of status not showing, crazy wrong footage, or duplicates) and they post it if they see fit.

30yrs,

You're generally the smartest person in the (chat)room here so I don't like to disagree with you, so let's spin it by saying I'm trying to add to what you have already said. And truthfully as far as it goes, I do agree, I just think you have include some discussion of the underlying forces at work here.

In a deleveraging environment a change in economic circumstances doesn't necessarily produce immediate desperation. There's certainly going to be a lag effect. When someone loses their job they can always borrow from family, friends and credit cards for a while. (Do you know the theory that freshman stockbrokers can last about a year selling to friends and family, and it's only in the second year when they have to move beyond that demographic that makes or breaks them?) It's only when the new (high-paying) job doesn't materialize when the desperation really starts to sink in. So yes, you are correct that recent marginal changes in employment are relatively insignificant, but you need to take into account the cumulative effects of longer-term unemployment.

Example given. At the NATIONAL level, within the last few months the number of prime mortgages in default has surpassed the number of subprime mortgages in default. I don't know for certain that the same can be said for the NY market, but I suspect that it is. I suspect this phenomenon is a result of past changes in unemployment that take a while to percolate down through the mortgage system.

Incidentally, since the Federal Gvt. is supposedly planning to push mortgage "servicers" to start pursuing short sales instead of going all the way to foreclosure, I would think this would push up inventory and lower prices since short sales would enter the market faster than foreclosures, especially in NY where foreclosures take so long.
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/09/10/federal-incentives-coming-for-short-sales-deeds-in-lieu/

This long term owner and observer of real estate values with a background in finance sees short sales in manhattan's future

"This long term owner and observer of real estate values with a background in finance sees short sales in manhattan's future"

I don't think you need the future for that. I think it's going on as we speak.

"In a deleveraging environment a change in economic circumstances doesn't necessarily produce immediate desperation. There's certainly going to be a lag effect. When someone loses their job they can always borrow from family, friends and credit cards for a while. (Do you know the theory that freshman stockbrokers can last about a year selling to friends and family, and it's only in the second year when they have to move beyond that demographic that makes or breaks them?) It's only when the new (high-paying) job doesn't materialize when the desperation really starts to sink in. So yes, you are correct that recent marginal changes in employment are relatively insignificant, but you need to take into account the cumulative effects of longer-term unemployment."

I absolutely agree with you in principal and it is a factor I considered when I was writing that post. But when that happens, you usually see the market behave a little differently: you see at least a palpable number "break ranks" and dump onto the market. This is the opposite of what the post I was responding to was attributing to "broker hype" (i.e. an almost collusive amount of activity of "we don't need to sell"). But I also have not seen an appreciable uptick in the number of "prime" properties (talking individual ownership here, not developers going bust) heading towards the auction block. Historically what you get when that sort of deleveraging occurs is both of those items (the "Mr. Wizard!! Get me out of here" for those with equity, the glue factory for those without equity). But also, in general, the type of people you describe are not the one's who took them off the market and are putting them back on: if they "came to Jesus" and realized that they were screwed and needed to sell, they kept their units on the market, and just prayed harder (lol). Now, I can not say there would be NONE that would have put their units on the market without thinking they are in any trouble, kept them on the market for 4 to 6 months not thinking they were not in any trouble, and only in the 2 months of July and August all of a sudden had "the revelation", but I think that may be a bit of hearing hoof-beats and thinking zebras.

Here are some things which would be a tip-off to me that what you posit might be occurring:
a) Apartments coming back on the market at substantially lower prices than when they left the market,
b) Sellers quickly taking offers substantially below asking prices,
c) Brokers resigning listings when they realize they can't sell at a number which will get the seller out above water (you can sense this sometimes when at open houses and sense the frustration of the broker who may even encourage low offers or make comments about trying to get the seller to lower the asking price)

Oh, and anther item ( which may be happening and I have not seen it reported yet): d) buyers in new developments abandoning their deposits in LARGE numbers).

i have been seeing a few new listings, primarily small units, that seem to be intentionally undercutting the market.

and in some developments buyers are NOT closing. but it will take another month or two to determine the extent of that.

The sellers who pulled their listings have a little more on the ball than we give credit for here. There will always be pie in the sky dreamers hoping to strike that last big deal of the decade but many more have been humbled by their failure to sell at their price and have bowed out indefinitely. There is nothing that indicates to me they will be back in droves, as many here have contended. The market forces are the same today as when they de-listed. A mere 200 unit net uptick from the bottom inventory number is all the evidence you need.

UWS..sound logic. Inventory is probably at 10% higher levels now the 10 year historical avg. The excess and then some should be burnt off by years end. 2010 is setting up to be a strong year for those who own.

Bears should not have fought the Fed.

mmarquez110 congrats on your likely success. Just curious as to whether it is a condo (new dev?), coop or brownstone. Obviously you dont need to disclose which one till you close but I am trying to get a general sense.
Thx

2010 will be a strong year RELATIVE to the very weak lagging quarterly report year of 2009 that will end up defining the downturn.

Its not like those buying in 2008 or 2009 will show 25% price appreciation in 2010.

SteveF - My statement concerns the return of de-listers, who from Urban Digs on down have said will likely flood back in varying degrees post labor day. I never understood that logic and I certainly don't see the listings. New construction condos are a whole world unto themselves and it remains unclear, to me at least, how that segment will play out. Remember the fire-sale auctions everyone was talking about 6 months ago?

Quality inventory remains tight in niche markets, which I think is giving pricing support to areas of higher inventory. Maybe the real story here is what happens if the flood never comes?? What then?? Will the sideline sitters sense a window of opportunity closing? Will they look at mortgage rates at historical lows and a stabilization of inventory as a sign to make their move? Will they think the opportunity will be even better in spring 2010? By what degree and is it worth the risk of higher rates and less selection?

Inventory for for oldest search (that I have weekly data for for a year) was up slightly today. Now at similar level to March '09. Last week was the lowest since Feb.

"JM, has the little one limited your ability/time to read the comps threads? i feel like i'm live-blogging a disaster as it's happening."

I'm just commenting on what I am seeing for good apartments in good neighborhoods. Yes, things have improved from a price perspective, yes, crappy apartments with crappy layouts can no longer ask the same a good apartments, yes we have seen some inventory build, yes you can no longer make 30% in three years on real estate……but disaster? I think you may be over playing your hand a bit.

I have recently been out with a few buyers(most of my buyers are out on their own), this Sunday one bedrooms $500-$600K UWS. There is a LOT of inventory many sitting over 60 days and many over a 100 days. We went to 10 open houses yesterday, many will never sell at or near the ask. A lot of nice properties with horrible kitchens and baths but not factoring in the discount for a renovation.

UD whom I tend to agree with is being very generous IMHO using the word "strong" even in a relative sense.

I have also been looking at 2 bedrooms downtown (not financial) $1.2-$1.4 and again we are seeing the best stuff eventually go into contract. But many units that are mediocre and not discounting for various shortcomings go unsold and fall off the radar. I have brokers calling me two months after I showed their unit w/ just the slightest interest from my buyer, "bring em' back...lets make a deal".

Things are better, but that's as far as I would go. I think it's delusional to talk this market up, if you're a buyer enjoy the good pickings.

joedavis - thanks, i'm hoping it all works out in the next few weeks. It's a duplex in an older condo building but the tax abatement hasn't run out yet. We're buying for <$500K. It's not the best deal in the world, but it is very good deal for us when you take into account the first-time homebuyer's credit, low interest rates, and hopefully the NYS MCC program. Actually, the current owners are moving up to a larger unit, so this is evidence of the stimulus program in action!

We tried for some new condo/co-op buildings, but unfortunately they could not close in time for us. Also, many of them are still grossly overpriced.

30yrs
Would like your input on the fabled shadow inventory and more specifically, new developments that have been laying on the market with $1500+ per sq ft asks getting treated like junk mail flyers or your term "noise."
These apartments which are technically in the land of commercial loans as they are multi apartment buildings with 10 to 50 plus apartments laying in limbo, as banks encouraged by the governemnt are handling with kid gloves and not putting any real pressure (yet).
I understand the reasoning, if they stall the blitz,and the market comes back somewhat, the writeoffs are XX% less than they have to be but at what point will they have to say enough is enough and sell at free market? 3 months from now? 6 months?
I think January will be the big hammer personally as pressure on year end statements will force many hands.

Flmao. It's a little phenomena called 'housing formation'. It went way way above average for 5 years, another thing called living above your income -let's call that 10 years, then put in a 'missed' recession in 2001 put in some good old greatest bubble in NYC re since the depression and what you have now is a good old game of chicken. Except one side is got the god of cash flow kicking the same rib area e dry single f'n month. The same god damn rib with her stiletto heels. At some point it's bound to crack the rib and push it into the aorta.

Get more popcorn, alot alot alot of sellers ruffling their chkn feathers. Flmao. The one buyer on this thread using the lemming tax credit. Flmao. Could've had a 2bdrm in a year, but that $15k burning a hole in your shorts.

Actually it's a 2bedroom duplex with private outdoor space. But there's no need to be rude about it.

Well then a 3bdrm. No need to be so offended by it. But use my tax money in good health. Just don't be pissed when we eliminate mortgage tax deduction to pay for the death panels. Um m'okay.

2010 will be a strong year RELATIVE to the very weak lagging quarterly report year of 2009 that will end up defining the downturn.

Its not like those buying in 2008 or 2009 will show 25% price appreciation in 2010.

>I agree with above, however, I think it will be a strong start to 2010 and a very strong early spring 2010. That time period shoud really set the positive tone going and we should experience robust demand. Not only will yoy real estate variances be very favorable all other financial yoy comparisons will be favorable as well. This will reinforce buyer perception that now is as good as it gets. Demand/Supply should equalize towards the middle of 2010. That's how I see it.

Don't worry, I only hope the rest of us lemmings can bottom feed off of your tax money during this crisis. And when my wife retires with her city pension in 20 years and then gets another job we'll have a great laugh at your expense.

w67thstreet, are you a high school grad?

A LOT is two words, not one word. even if you write it three times in a row, it's still two words.

no..it would then be six words
are you late for pre-school?

You're both wrong ... if you write it three times in a row, it's three words.

Allow me to demonstrate:
1. it
2. it
3. it

As you can see by carefully following the count, the final tally comes to three.

chicky!!!
it's the cops...

high school? I see evidence of higher learning in w67. It was in college where I learned to shorten words by eliminating the vowels: "2bdrm" "3bdrm" I think you are allowed to break the rules when you post on the Internet, no?

youz guys are killing w67th....

mmarquez... here is a bit of logic (if you don't get it, I completely understand). your honey sweet bottom-feeding off of the largesse that is the NYC Public education system and her ability to double dip and strike when chalk is off-white as against union rules will still be there absent your purchase? Now lemmings like you jump in... saying yep... Obama for the union (look what he started w/ china with this tit for tat tariffs) and the little guys... forgetting this Obamulus is basically run by the same old "men" who brought you Grt Rcssn 1.0 about to be 2.0. You think they give a crap about "1st" time buyers???? They WANT YOU TO PUT your fat wife's azz in the dam's hole.

But back to logic. Let's say you could've saved $100K in 1 yr (a w67th guarantee)., compounded at 4% for 20 yrs is = > $219K.... now your wife is collecting penision, working that 3rd job flipping burgers and you are ahead $219K... .but f' you saved $15K....

One other thing, I can always dumb down to get a union job... it doesn't work the other way around.

'They WANT YOU TO PUT your fat wife's azz in the dam's hole.'

This one hurts my brain because it came so close to being...................intriguing.

Why must W67th always be so obscenely offensive in his postings? What did the poor guy d to him that merits a vicious slur on his wife?

One man's porn is another man's 'art'. Look at the dufus - he thinks he has scored bc his wife is a union worker and can double dip in 20 yrs on the backs of taxpayers, and then birds us with the $15k tax credit. He got off light w/ fat arse comment. Me I like big butts, no I cannot deny, so round and juicy, cannot deny.

If I wanted a flat arse I would have married a man.

This doesn't bother me too much. w67 knows exactly zero about me and my wife. The only reason I responded originally was that I thought he was making legitimate conversation. What was I thinking?

truthskr10: In case you haven't noticed, I've been jumping up and down for over a month about what the real shadow inventory is ever since a noted expert came on here and said that the amount of shadow inventory exceeded the sum of both resales and new construction units on the market, and he hasn't been back since (at least that I've seen). How much shadow inventory is there? WTF knows? And the problem is that the real answer has a significant impact on what's going to happen.

What I fear is that we are in a similar situation to what Japan was in when they had their crisis 2 decades ago where there was so much bad paper that they had to pretend it wasn't bad because if they admitted to all of it, everyone would have been declared insolvent. I think there is SO much pressure from the current administration to make things look rosy that some of this same stuff is going on: regulators are looking the other way and covering their ears, eyes and noses. What you have in a number of cases now, I believe, is lenders who know that things will be TERRIBLE if they foreclose on certain large loans even though they are bad, so everyone is whistling past the graveyard. So they aren't getting the loan payments now? The govt isn't breathing down their necks to do anything, so they are letting things sit because they know even if they tried to do something, it wouldn't end up on the plus side. In the meanwhile, the DOW is marching towards 10,000 again. No one wants to rock the boat, especially because if they don't, they get to go back to making their overly risky plays and raking in big $. You know this is the case because OUT OF NO WHERE today, Obama pulled a Jack-in-the-Box move yelling about going back to the old practices which got us into trouble in the first place and how there wouldn't be another bailout, yada, yada, yada,

Well, what set the POTUS off? He put into place a smoke and mirrors scheme to make things look more rosy than they actually are, and Wall Street did what they always have and always will do: take full advantage of the cracks in the system. In this case, they know (or think they know) that no one in the administration wants to admit how bad things really are, so they are going to push the envelope since they know no one wants to Wizard of Oz/Emperor has no clothes/whatever our wonderful recovery.

mmarquez -- just put w67 on the ignore list. I am.
Behavior in this thread is inexcusable

rental market continues to crash. owners are nervous and they should be. rent rolls are crushing people. empty ground floor stores only add to the pressure. its ugly out there

30 yrs,

"What I fear is that we are in a similar situation to what Japan was in when they had their crisis 2 decades ago where there was so much bad paper that they had to pretend it wasn't bad because if they admitted to all of it, everyone would have been declared insolvent..."

The convenient term for this view, which I share, is "pretend and extend." See:
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/pretend-and-extend-a-growing-concern-in-commercial-markets-53543.aspx

Given your mention of Japan, and previous discussions earlier in this thread, do you think that the lack of desperation in sellers is likely to indicate that we'll experience a long deflationary slide in residential RE prices rather than a(nother) quick spike down and a bottom?

pray and delay.

nicktrippel, there's desperation in some sellers. and their apartments often sell. you can't judge based on the asking prices for new listings. you must look at recorded sales to determine what the real state of the market is.

aboutready, I disagree, in this market that was frozen not too long ago and is rapidly changing. You have to look at current listings(your current competition) as your primary gauge of where you should price.

steveF, of course that's where YOU'd look. no, the numbers that will come out in october will reflect earlier closings. where things trade is what matters, not where they list.

nick, japan which is wholly different than the US cannot be used as a comparison. The Japanese more likely to cut everyone's salary rather than fire/layoff anyone. Not true cutthroat capitalism like the US. More honorable people but bad for capitalistic society.

We are IMHO in "V" shaped recovery. Japan has never experienced that since their recession started 20 years ago.

one of the many reasons real estate takes time to adjust.

steveF, you should see how the developers are undercutting their prior sales prices. would they be doing that if they thought the market was going to improve?

aboutready. wrong. not in a changing market like this one. Once we settle(getting there) then the past is okay.

about, sorry i don't own any new developments. However one of the apts I own is in a building that has a very fluid sales environment. I can easily see the change in the studio pricing. It's almost like stock trading.

"The V-shaped recovery just got a badly needed shot in the arm today as the consumer is back in the game in a big way," said economist Chris Rupkey.

hmmm. does this guy read SE?
Published: Tuesday, 15 Sep 2009 | 9:37 AM ET

really?

how so?

who's buying what?

really? YES

how so? Banks and cash

who's buying what? A Russian Investor and a S. Korean intern.

That's all your gonna get outta me Copper.

"Excluding autos, sales rose 1.1 percent, ahead of an expected 0.4 percent jump. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.6 percent."

forget the expected crap...6/10's of a percent over a previously awful number and you're jumping for joy. here comes the vee! hilarious.

i thought steveF's source was referring to the census bureau's report, but steve's response mystifies me. steve i'm happy for you that your studios are doing well. you're one of the few who can make such claims.

now on to that consumer, who spent more in august than july, but still significantly less than last august, when we were already mired in the recession (from calculatedriskblog.com)(take out autos and it was 1.1%):

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 5.3 percent (±0.7%) below August 2008. Total sales for the June through August 2009 period were down 7.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.2 percent (±0.2%)*.

i'll take yellen as my source any day. also from calculatedriskblog.com.

The chances are slim for a robust rebound in consumer spending, which represents around 70 percent of economic activity. Of course, consumers are getting a boost from the fiscal stimulus package. But this program is temporary. Over the long term, consumers face daunting issues of their own. In fact, it’s easy to draw a comparison between the financial state of households and that of financial institutions. For years prior to the recession, households went on a spending spree. This occurred during a period that economists call the “Great Moderation,” about two decades when recessions were infrequent and mild, and inflation was low and stable. Credit became ever easier to get and consumers took advantage of this to borrow and buy. Stock and home prices rose year after year, giving households additional wherewithal to keep spending. In this culture of consumption, the personal saving rate fell from around 10 percent in the mid-1980s to 1½ percent or lower in recent years. At the same time, households took on larger proportions of debt. From 1960 to the mid-1980s, debt represented a manageable 65 percent of disposable income. Since then, it has risen steadily, with a notable acceleration in the last economic expansion. By 2008, it had doubled to about 130 percent of income.

I have to say aboutready, you do bring up some of the best bear arguments on these boards. plus you are pretty civilized. keep'em coming, you keep me on my toes.

ar: "steveF, you should see how the developers are undercutting their prior sales prices. would they be doing that if they thought the market was going to improve?"

How about Richard LeFrak putting forth a proposal with some other developers that congress should give green cards with the purchase of a home. You think that doesn't smack of desperation? Clearly these guys -- with their fingers on the pulse of the market--- are nervous enough to propose a plan that doesn't have a chance in hell of getting through our xenophobic congress. You think they are holding their breath for a V recovery. No, their only chance is to market America's huge excess inventory to foreigners. American consumers are broken.

30yrs
Yes and we pretty much agree on state of affairs. I put that question to you because,
a) you are a broker
b) who is well informed and seemingly a straight shooter (as much as a broker can be...just kidding)
c) and I thought maybe you had more inside info on some if not many new developments that seem to be in witness protection.

As far as the Japan model,though their errors are certainly a good lesson, I don't think we are in that same exact boat. Their island was/is smaller, less natural resources, and very financial sector heavy as the country's national product. Not that the U.S. isn't but the U.S. has much more diverse industry.
Back then we really F'ed them to tell the truth. We borrowed $1 from them when it was worth 1.20 and eventually payed them back years later when it was worth .70 cents.
We were about to do the same to China and they "weren't having it." If you recall all the resistance China gave the world to revaluing their money's exchange rate to the dollar 2 and 3 years ago.
Rather short sighted on their part though as they are most assuredly chained to our leg and didn't realize until now when factories are at 50% speed. They'll hide it better because they are still a communist country and "peoples suffering" is less advertised but trust me they are hurting.

apt23, i hadn't heard of that one. buying a home makes you an american. baseball, apple pie, and a condo.

"aboutready, I disagree, in this market that was frozen not too long ago and is rapidly changing. You have to look at current listings(your current competition) as your primary gauge of where you should price."

Yes and no: You first go by comp sales, but then look at what is on the market as competition as a "cap" to see if you're priced too high because no matter what your unit should be worth, if someone else is selling the same thing for less, you either don't list and wait till he's gone, or compete with them.

"Given your mention of Japan, and previous discussions earlier in this thread, do you think that the lack of desperation in sellers is likely to indicate that we'll experience a long deflationary slide in residential RE prices rather than a(nother) quick spike down and a bottom?"

Not promising it will happen because we both know there's too many other factors in play, but yes I think it pushes the market in that direction. Which I always think is worse: take a look at the DOW and how quickly it has recovered: if there had been a severe "governor" on the downward slide, rather than a crash and renaissance, I think we'd still be at 8K on the downslope.

"Their island was/is smaller, less natural resources, and very financial sector heavy as the country's national product. "

Gee, does that describe Manhattan or what? ;)

AboutReady: Yes here is the link. How could owners not be worried when big NYC residential developers think the only way to save their asses is to sell greencards. They must see some horrible happenings on the horizon. And because there isn't a chance in hell that this will pass congress, what is next..........stay tuned to your price chopper blogs.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/richard-s-lefrak/

"do you think that the lack of desperation in sellers is likely to indicate that we'll experience a long deflationary slide in residential RE prices rather than a(nother) quick spike down and a bottom?"

Well that depends on the fuel doesn't it? Fuel= government pressure to banks NOT to pressure debtors.
Like stocks, I've learned your better off doing the opposite of what the street says.
Given that, though all signs point to a long deflationary slide I should probably say a quick spike down.

(I know several people who haven't payed their mortgages in months (more than 6) trying to pressure banks to cut "new" deals. Default notices but no court actions, none of them. I don't know how long that can continue.)

"Gee, does that describe Manhattan or what? ;)"
Chapeau. :)

Can anyone explain to me how sellers think their market is recovering when there are tons of empty apartments in newly constructed buildings all over the city? I'm specifically talking about downtown where the building boom was biggest.

The few buyers like myself that are sitting and patiently waiting can clearly see that there are half-empty buildings & I have to assume that eventually they'll have to sell them. Why would I overpay? I understand that not all sellers *have* to sell, but the patient buyer can fish out the ones that do so it seems stupid to put a place on the market if you're expecting "your number" to come in at bubble level.

"(I know several people who haven't payed their mortgages in months (more than 6) trying to pressure banks to cut "new" deals. Default notices but no court actions, none of them. I don't know how long that can continue.)"

I'm pretty sure I called this several months ago here on SE in pointing out how bad an idea any kind of "moratorium" on foreclosures would be. Imagine the impact it would have if this became widely known? You know how brisk the business is in "Don't pay income taxes, they are illegal" books, seminars, etc. is? And that's BS. If it's THE TRUTH that you don't pay your mortgage and all that happens is you get a better deal, considering how many people are, or are going to be (see Noah's excellent piece on recastings coming up and coming up a lot sooner than expected on yesterday's posting) in trouble, I can't image what the possible outcome could be.

Sounds a bit like a game of chicken. Underwater mortgagees stop paying to force negotiations with mortgagors who want to pretend and extend.

First, given the nature of the beast, I don't think that NY will ever experience the same foreclosure rates as the "sand" states have had.

That said, I can't help but wonder if the timing of the drop in NY (much later peak than "sand" states, and a MUCH longer time from Notice of Default to actual Foreclosure) is helping to subdue the foreclosure problem here by way of subterfuge. NY mortgagors have had the time to learn that the Fed Gvt will let them get away with "pretend and extend" by the time the downturn had really started to hit NYC, while consumers have learned how to play the game of the strategic default. The "sand" states, entering the process earlier because they had much bigger problems to begin with, did not have this luxury.

What with the shadow REOs, the intentional as well as unintentional defaults, and pretend and extend - one can't help but feel uneasy that at some point it's all going to catch up with us. Not that I take any joy in that prognostication. As the great Tom Lehrer used to say, "I feel like a Christian Scientist with appendicitis."

One wonders if the Gvt rocket scientists doing stress tests have bothered to gather statistics on all of this...

Inventory now up over 9400, almost 300 up from just a couple weeks ago...

Guess SteveF called it wrong again....

> Bears should not have fought the Fed.

SteveF should have not fought the bears (or the facts). It lost him 20% leveraged.

Its a sputtering start to what everyone said was going to be a post labor day tidal wave.

Everyone?

This question has come up recently with a few of my buyers, so I figured I'd weigh in with my trademarked non-macro economic, purely anecdotal perspective.

Here in Brooklyn, it seems like the Fall selling season is slow to start because the Spring selling season is just now coming to a close. If that lag time persists, maybe we'll start seeing the usual influx of new listings in October and November.

From an agent's perspective, everybody worked their arses off all Summer, and we're pooped! I know an agent who hasn't had two consecutive days off since April. Every deal is taking longer to close, and I think we're seeing some fatigue on the part of the brokers who are no longer interested in taking overpriced listings they can't sell to an unforgiving buyer's market. The shadow inventory may still be out there, but good luck finding an agent to sell it for you if you're unwilling to price it correctly.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

"If that lag time persists, maybe we'll start seeing the usual influx of new listings in October and November. "

but do you think that buyers will do what they have never done before and keep look though Thanksgiving?

I have new listings every day. Maybe it is less busy because the phones are not 'a'ringing

it is a quiet market...look at the slow pace of the inventory as it rolls out...Who wants to sell today unless you must...Cinderella's sisters are everywhere!

inventory still higher than august... and seems to be climbing this week (from Ud)

separately, Crain's cover story this week on high end notes a "bumper crop of new listings since Labor Day"... and then a broker actually tries to spin that as good news.

increase in inventory IS good news. brokers are 'shop girls', the bigger the selection the better the shop.