I hear sales market is extremely busy out there, any broker comments?

more voices in your head?

I hear dead unicorns.

ho ho, the ever witty columbiacounty throwing out his usual one liners. yes voices telling me "it's great being an owner".

its been busy for 4 months. not news. its repetitive. market is active, buyers are out there, and with every 1% gain in equity market a bit more confidence hits buyers.

does this mean prices are rising and heading back to peak? of course not. pricing is key, if yo price right it sells, if not, it sits. simple. done. if sellers see stock rally and expect their apt to trade near peak, good luck. this is the part that you have to worry about in regards to sellers, if they get unrealistic and start to price in a premium of expected appreciation that has not happened yet. Buyers need to get on board and I find buyers to be more realistic than sellers, yet still not willing to chase. Sure you will find a good deal here and there, but in general, buyers expect to buy a property in the range down from peak that deals seems to be happening. not much more. so if sellers change, and expect more, buyers have to jump on bandwagon. If they dont, sales volume will fall again.

FWIW - contracts signed activity is DOWN from the more active months of May-July, that saw 1,200 contracts signed, now in last 4 weeks we are about 900

SteveF, had only you been Elliot Spitzer's PR man Paterson would still be Lt. Gov. Magoo.

It's just a tiny postitute...
No,No, I couldn't eat another bite.

No I couldn't eat another bite. Hahahhahahahahahahahah

w67th, what's with the unicorn fetish. you throw that around alot. i wasn't there for the explanation. can you educate us on the unicorn story?

I tend to side with the bears on here to a degree, but recently the uptick has been hard to argue against. One customer of mine has been beat out on 3 apartments this month to all cash offers. At first I believed the listing brokers to be BS'ing, as it has been a predictable tactic in this market, only to find it in contract a week later. Just a snapshot, but definitely busy out there.

I'm still basically with the general bear (more Noah than W67) sentiment that things have stabilized for now, but another wave down looms around 2011.

Thanks, urbandigs. Your voice of reason is always appreciated here.

FWIW - contracts signed activity is DOWN from the more active months of May-July, that saw 1,200 contracts signed, now in last 4 weeks we are about 900

Noah are you saying the "last 4 weeks" of May-July saw 1200?

I like yours handle ch-borker. Cool. Fsteve, where is your inner child. The unicorn represents every child's dream of every single Xmas gift under the tree. If you want it bad enough the unicorn will make it come true. Now the question is whose unicorn will win?

I don't get lemmings. When this spring's selling season don't materialize expect hard and protracted rush to bottom and lots of sideways for several years. No rush.

>and with every 1% gain in equity market a bit more confidence hits buyers.<

How do you come to this conclusion UD? How certain are you that a higher stock market higher will increase buyer activity? Do you hear this from clients?

W67, got the idea from you...no harm in having a little fun!

I'll basically parrot UD here. I present the caveats to my customers and let them make their own choices as to timing/price. Activity is only up in comparison to armageddon of late 08 and early 09.

UD - so would you say that clearing prices are flat since the springtime nadir in activity? or still down from there?

steveF - the only internal system that I can use to monitor internal status changes to contract signed for REBNY member brokerages, is olr. i check often. they do it by last 4 weeks, prior 4 weeks only. at end of may and at end of june, status changes in manhattan for all coops and condos to contract signed was around 1150-1200 or so...last i checked, the last 4 weeks this dropped to about 850-900.

gives us an idea of where we are coming from.

of course I dont have any study to back me up here, but its very clear from talking to many clients over a period of time the effect that a surging stock market has on consumer confidence...putting aside how right it is in the medium term. Im fairly certain that a plunging stock market had at least something to do with buyers putting off their purchase or adjusting what they feel they can afford. Only rational to think a surging stock market may have some effect too on confidence and how wealthy one feels.

Printer? I believe ud said if you get aggressive in pricing you are dead in the water. So 2004 to clear quickly, 2005/2006 if feeling like your four walls are made of unicorn feathers, and cold stone on crack if you price at 2007.

printer - i think we overshot to downside in feb/march for all price points and since the bid has risen slightly for all price points. so if we put it into a range for all price points, say down x% from peak, I would say trades were occurring at higher end of that range in FEB/MAR and now are occurring at lower end of range. fear was priced in early feb/march and priced out over the course of the past 4 months.

i say we muddle here for a while..best I can say right now.

I think you need to look at comps for 2005 and price accordingly. To really sell, price it a bit lower. That's pretty much where we are now. If you price at 06 or 07, you will sit. . .and sit. . .and sit. . .

My view in a nutshell: Around the $1MM price point, there's abundant interest in quality product. Above $2MM, the bloodbath continues.

FWIW - contracts signed activity is DOWN from the more active months of May-July, that saw 1,200 contracts signed, now in last 4 weeks we are about 900

Udigs- When I was looking during those months, I was elbowed constantly (especially in new developments) by parents looking for their college aged or post college aged kids. I was thinking that maybe parents were buying so their kids could take the first time buyer tax deduction. (Parents hold mortgage, use as pied a terre, etc because these were all 2 bedroom apts) Wouldn't you pretty much have to go to contract by July to close by Nov deadline. This thought was also backed up when CNBC interviewer asked big famous bear why he bought NYC real estate if he was so bearish. Answer: bought a 2 bed on WEA for his two kids in school (apt was near Columbia). Anecdotal I know, but just wondering.

Steve, what happened to you leaving graciously?

> FWIW - contracts signed activity is DOWN from the more active months of May-July,

And number of listings is growing again now that summer is over, just as predicted.

Open house traffic this past weekend was brisk, from just the half dozen places I went to. There's undoubtedly a lot of folks out there looking below the $1M pricepoint, and still feeling slightly disappointed (I'm one of them!) IMHO, an interesting sea change difference between now and a year ago is the amount of importance buyers/brokers assign when hearing a property has an "accepted offer" or the old chestnut about "we have lots of interest."

Time was, an "accepted offer" was kind of a big deal... it was a safe bet that from there, the property went into contract and subsequently closed and now there's simply NO assurance that any of that will happen. An accepted offer nowadays is a great big flying "so what??" And I suspect as a result, you can feel this general lack of buyer urgency at the open houses, despite the activity.

You know what I'd really like to see? Rather than the number of transactions, the total dollar volume of transactions for Q2 2009, and Q3 for 2008 and 2009 (or even for every quarter for the past 2 years). I think these numbers would show a very different slant on the market. Anyone know if that chart is available anywhere?

30 yrs doesn't Case Shiller have this kind of info?

Urbandiggs - thanks.

I'm a big fan of looking at the currnt market to gauge the state fo things. I still see greedy management companies offering months of free rent and gym memebrships and hookers and anything else to get people to sign leases. I also see listings constantly lowerein thier offer and sitting on the market for 200+ days. The best part is that theres still more massive buildings coming to market.

How hot r the hookers?

smokin baby smokin

"30 yrs doesn't Case Shiller have this kind of info?"

Certainly not for Manhattan Coops and Condos combined.

You can get the spreadsheets from the city at http://home2.nyc.gov/html/dof/html/property/property_val_annual_sales.shtml, but there's probably lots of junk to weed out.

30yrs,

Miller Samuel has avg sale price and number of sales data by area and by quarter for Manhattan going back to 2004. MS breaks it out by area and I didn't want to combine all of Manhattan, so I chose UES.

Multiplying average price by number of sales for UES

1Q, 2004 $377,690,436
2Q, 2004 $439,117,482
3Q, 2004 $497,152,767
4Q, 2004 $415,922,625
1Q, 2005 $486,865,176
2Q, 2005 $468,860,808
3Q, 2005 $395,030,727
4Q, 2005 $339,097,590
1Q, 2006 $373,968,530
2Q, 2006 $385,626,738
3Q, 2006 $432,202,650
4Q, 2006 $478,008,927
1Q, 2007 $775,979,172
2Q, 2007 $681,980,418
3Q, 2007 $736,421,774
4Q, 2007 $584,380,665
1Q, 2008 $593,080,600
2Q, 2008 $663,308,112
3Q, 2008 $587,658,864
4Q, 2008 $531,340,173
1Q, 2009 $253,172,439
2Q, 2009 $323,508,501

NB: Last two quarters are the lowest sales on record.
PS: I don't think MS data is inflation-adjusted. If this data was inflation adjusted it would look worse...

Addendum,

The above data is only for Coops.

Clarification:

NB: Last two quarters are the lowest sales on record for the period 1Q, 2004 through 2Q, 2009.

nice work sis

Curiously, Condo AND Coop data for the same period for the UES, doesn't look quite as bad in the period. My guess is that so much new condo inventory has come online that it has increased the total market.

Excluding 2007 and 2008, total sales per quarter have stayed in a range from $525M to $800M.

1Q, 2004 $528,842,853
2Q, 2004 $668,729,215
3Q, 2004 $786,403,140
4Q, 2004 $667,624,544
1Q, 2005 $753,585,815
2Q, 2005 $788,575,700
3Q, 2005 $689,483,520
4Q, 2005 $540,321,210
1Q, 2006 $715,748,972
2Q, 2006 $754,005,945
3Q, 2006 $775,211,008
4Q, 2006 $671,386,158
1Q, 2007 $1,124,849,115
2Q, 2007 $1,107,813,126
3Q, 2007 $1,102,451,214
4Q, 2007 $816,647,490
1Q, 2008 $915,611,501
2Q, 2008 $1,095,906,658
3Q, 2008 $839,684,187
4Q, 2008 $801,522,239
1Q, 2009 $597,781,542
2Q, 2009 $610,878,982

30 yrs,

You've pondered about the high-end. Here's what Miller Samuel defines as "Luxury" Condo AND Coop sales data for UES in the same period. If you chart the data in Excel, the drop in each successive quarter from 2Q, 2008 is pretty darn striking - as you had predicted.

If you'll excuse the expression, I believe this is what you might call the "money shot."

1Q, 2004 $664,120,548
2Q, 2004 $768,938,219
3Q, 2004 $961,541,568
4Q, 2004 $730,062,345
1Q, 2005 $920,259,291
2Q, 2005 $1,126,328,392
3Q, 2005 $764,815,800
4Q, 2005 $649,708,390
1Q, 2006 $909,440,200
2Q, 2006 $967,537,371
3Q, 2006 $951,574,763
4Q, 2006 $1,055,102,116
1Q, 2007 $1,610,725,767
2Q, 2007 $1,811,899,620
3Q, 2007 $1,780,059,050
4Q, 2007 $1,447,293,960
1Q, 2008 $1,748,170,164
2Q, 2008 $1,960,112,000
3Q, 2008 $1,534,410,685
4Q, 2008 $1,267,566,456
1Q, 2009 $936,173,040
2Q, 2009 $728,154,693

CORRECTION!

Data on LUXURY Condo AND Coop sales is for ALL of Manhattan, not just UES!

WOW - sis - this is crazy. This should be all over the news - Urbandigs what do you think of these charts? I'd say the condo data doesn't look as dire as co-ops because many people who closed in 1Q 2009 actually put the unit in contract in 2007. Thus closings that happened in 1Q 2009 actually closed at prices agreed upon at the top.

sis - if you consider that the in 2Q 2008 nearly $2B in transactions were made and a year later only $700M it goes to show how much the apartment brokerage business is hurting. On average, every broker is down more than 50% in earnings.

Just had a quick look before heading out. Wow, this data will knock your socks (and shoes) off!

Tis but a flesh wound

Yeah...like the Black Knight in Monty Python!

"If you'll excuse the expression, I believe this is what you might call the "money shot.""

sisyphean: thank you so much for doing the calcs I was too lazy to do myself, but the results were pretty much what I was hinting at they might be and why I said: "I think these numbers would show a very different slant on the market."

Jazzman: that was my point = should this be all over the news and why isn't it? In my best Arsenio Hall voice:"things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmm".

can't wait to see the 2009 Q3 numbers, huh?

(ok, I admit it - this is like foreplay for me......)

but you know what comes after foreplay........

and i'll be a broken record myself, but i can't believe how the press hasn't picked up the discounts that are being offered by sponsors. huge. mostly in buildings that are in the eye of the storm (certain hoods), few remaining units in a building, but now also in buildings with established developers who hadn't been budging until recently.

Fiveplay?

come back here...Ill bite your leg off!

What are you going to do? Bleed on me?

Lest I be accused of cherry-picking data, I thought I'd look at a few other areas. I was somewhat expecting more downside in the last 2 quarters, but the sales range I tend to see for total sales in the last two quarters of 2009 seems to often return to the range of sales common in 2004-2006, albeit much lower than the peak years of 2007-2008.

Below is Condos AND Coops in Harlem Heights and Morningside Heights

1Q, 2004 $3,319,302
2Q, 2004 $6,189,106
3Q, 2004 $4,038,900
4Q, 2004 $1,823,296
1Q, 2005 $6,665,008
2Q, 2005 $4,189,600
3Q, 2005 $4,317,005
4Q, 2005 $2,486,099
1Q, 2006 $5,240,100
2Q, 2006 $2,022,500
3Q, 2006 $2,575,000
4Q, 2006 $15,697,005
1Q, 2007 $9,551,601
2Q, 2007 $16,458,915
3Q, 2007 $36,267,971
4Q, 2007 $17,998,617
1Q, 2008 $9,687,900
2Q, 2008 $7,469,307
3Q, 2008 $7,866,494
4Q, 2008 $7,638,688
1Q, 2009 $1,260,000
2Q, 2009 $4,707,008

Below is Condos AND Coops in SoHo and TriBeCa

1Q, 2004 $159,197,493
2Q, 2004 $142,326,345
3Q, 2004 $189,530,396
4Q, 2004 $147,387,484
1Q, 2005 $201,168,990
2Q, 2005 $204,153,017
3Q, 2005 $159,529,052
4Q, 2005 $138,044,120
1Q, 2006 $198,064,516
2Q, 2006 $232,940,864
3Q, 2006 $151,666,152
4Q, 2006 $239,164,608
1Q, 2007 $349,299,240
2Q, 2007 $709,228,800
3Q, 2007 $288,276,702
4Q, 2007 $171,235,072
1Q, 2008 $192,159,297
2Q, 2008 $380,347,200
3Q, 2008 $370,258,186
4Q, 2008 $284,174,936
1Q, 2009 $173,742,427
2Q, 2009 $156,178,048

What is a standard, rule-of-thumb percentage for listings in contract, as a % of total overall listings?

When I run my normal search, using my normal search criteria, this generates 159 listings. Of these 159 listings, 58 are currently in contract, or a touch over 36%. I don't know what historical standards are, but this strikes me as something higher than a ridiculously, money-shot bearish number.

Moreover, this current "in-contract" perspective is somewhat forward-looking. Certainly more forward-looking than Q1-09 and Q2-09 sales data, considering those sales probably went into contract back in Q4-08 or Q1-09.

Thank you.

30yrs,

"sisyphean: thank you so much for doing the calcs I was too lazy to do myself, but the results were pretty much what I was hinting at they might be and why I said: "I think these numbers would show a very different slant on the market."

You're very welcome. Thanks for your efforts. I've learned a great deal from your posts. And well, sisyphean tasks tends to be my stock in trade...

Interesting...the silence is mildly fascinating, considering the typical disdain. The logical follow-up question would be this: which is it?

Are inventories swollen, meaning my 36% figure is going to translate into larger-than-expected sales in Q4 of this year and beyond?

OR-

Are inventories low, meaning sellers are loathe to put units on the market, meaning opportunites are scarcer than people think for certain types of units (note -- I'm NOT talking about newly-built/converted condos for these purposes).

It has to be one or the other. Or some combination of both.

i would think that you all would benefit from looking at the comps theads.

i think that whatever, if any, stabilization we are seeing now will show up in the january numbers. and by then the new construction market seems ready to truly implode/explode. may you live in interesting real estate times.

I don't anyone knows, which is why the arguments are so shrill. Once we get facts, there won't be any more disputes about which way is up. The only acrimony will be about who called it correctly.

Oh! And Sisyphean, my hat's off to you. That was amazing work. It's very interesting to look at the bottom line, rather than cherry-picked points of data.

maly, real time you often only have a few points of data.

yes a few transactions show some resistance, but most don't.

i don't find my comps analyses shrill at all. they are only data points. but they are getting to be damned interesting. especially in the new construction arena.

FWIW, I think the comps threads are great. The best thing on here, among a lot of other helpful things too.

AR, I wasn't calling anyone in particular as shrill, just characterizing the bulls vs. bears arguments. I love the comps threads, but I look at them for entertainment, not information. I don't mean to point the finger at you, I find myself doing the exact distortion: I find the ouliers and extremes much more interesting than looking at listings that sold within 5% of what they did 3 years ago. What's the fun in that?

maly,
interesting point about preception. Prehaps what would really be of great value would be a collection of just such a grouping of these sales. A posting of closed sales that demonstrated this exact phenomena. Most of us are here trying to learn and understand this market. I wouldn't read a modecrum of what I do now if I wasn't attentive to this site. There is also a healthy balance and a willingness to 'change sides' at a moments notice. I'm a buyer and a bear until just a short time before I buy. So your input could be of more help to me if it could include links to examples that support your points otherwise your comments fall to the realm of rants and raves. You sound like you really have something to share and add to the soup...just crank up the noodle a little bit.

maly, my point was that my comps aren't outliers. just pull up the new developments, pick a building that is only partially sold or that is now allowing resales, and go for it. the outliers are those that are holding up well. certain pockets were doing fairly well as a rule, but now they aren't. and a few buildings are doing OK still, i'll admit, and sometimes i'm not sure why. for a long time i admitted that my favorite neighborhoods were seeing little if any declines, holding onto 2007-08 pricing, and suddenly it has changed dramatically. as i'm a downtown sort of gal my comps will be more affected by new construction.

but i take a good look at the other markets, too. and west81st's comps aren't really outliers, either. if fact, it gets boring doing comps because you become a bit jaded. after a while 2006 pricing is ho-hum, then 2005. you'll see much more comps threads activity if and when there is serious 2003-04 activity.

i'm on fire in the comps thread recently because what i'm seeing is NEW. there was much speculation as to when sponsors would start seriously reducing prices, and that day is now, or more accurately about three or four months ago. that's not entertainment, that's real info (although it could be entertaining info, to some).

sisyphean, awesome.

Falcogold1/Maly: Such a thread has been attempted, here:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12702-sales-that-seem-to-defy-market-trend
Spinnaker1 tried valiantly, and several fair-minded bears even tried to pitch in. There just haven't been many sales in the past year that were demonstrably close to peak comps.

Of course, there's a certain amount of sample bias in the IYCDMMWC threads; but if you approach the task with the opposite bias, the pickings are slim.

Sisyphean: Fascinating stuff. Thank you for assembling and sharing it.

just to point out the "health" of "emerging markets":

from the above numbers, the percentage of gross $ spent in Harlem Heights and Morningside Heights vs Soho and Tribeca in 3Q, 2007 was a little over 12.5%. In 2Q, 2009 it was 3%. So the investment in the market of HH and MH vs Tribeca and Soho has taken a 400%+ *relative* hit.

For the same time periods, the UES vs Soho and Tribeca in 3Q 2007 was 382% vs 391% which is probably flat within the margin of error for the numbers. To me, this signals the "flight to quality" which is usually seen at the start of any prolonged down market. think about it: in the neighborhood that probably has the "biggest bargains (see mimi's foreclosed listings at 50% off), people are staying away from them. It's almost impossible for a market to recover when you can't sell product even when you have massive price cuts.

This is what we saw in the crash leading up to 1992, where it because almost impossible to sell Coops in Forrest Hills, the East Village, etc. And the price drop became astounding as a result (70% and more). In turn, this became a HUGE drag on the market as a whole as the heard mentality went from "You can't go wrong buying a Coop/Condo" to "whatever you do, don't buy a Coop or a Condo".

wow three oh..very compelling

thx sis...

Great stuff, sis. Thanks.

West81st, interesting thread on "sales that seem to defy market trend." When I look at at the 5 recent sales posted on the home page of Streeteasy, I tend to look at the "man bite dog" listings. As an exercise, today I looked at the first 3 and compared to the sales within the buildings.
23 west 73rd looks pretty good to me. It's really a 2 bedroom, with the dining room converted to a 3rd bedroom, which makes for a slightly cramped layout. On the plus side, a glorious terrace. How does it compare to the peak prices? It's really hard to tell, because the outdoor space is a bit of a trump card. Still, $2.5 million for a converted 3 with no park views is really quite a strong price. Does it defy market trends? not really, I'd wager they might have gotten 5% more 2 years ago? who knows?

160 east 26th seems at first glance like the perfect addition to IYCDMMWC thread. $312,000 for a 1 bedroom in Kips Bay? wow! However, the listing reveals it's a North-facing, 2nd floor, in need of a gut rehab, 450 square-feet piece of crapola. To top this mud cake, the maintenance is $850. Now it looks like irrational exuberance. Next!

71 Nassau has a bit of an issue with paperwork, as apparently it sold twice on 9/10, once at $1,158,000 and also at 849,000. It looks like the 849,000 is another listing that got recorded on Streeteasy with the wrong unit number, not 100% sure though. Assuming the $1,158,000 closed sale is for 2A, they did better than OK. After buying in 2006 in new construction, they managed to resell for more, in the midst of the storm. Not a crazy 20% appreciation, but a solid sale, and in the Financial District no less.

It's very time-consuming to look at every sale and really determine what's going on. I simply wouldn't have time to look at 5 sales in-depth every single day, and for better or for worse, the bears are more passionate about finding and posting the data that support their POV. The NY market is very opaque because it's impossible to even look at psf within the same building and get the story. Even the total sales per market per quarter, though illuminating, get skewed by new developments.

I would love to see a new thread dedicated to the 5 sales of the day. If 5 people a day could analyze the Streeteasy picks, it would be random enough to give a less biased picture. What do you think?

What, SteveF not here begging anymore. "PLEASE?!? PLEASE?!?1 PLEASE GOD, LET PRICES STOP FALLING?!@?!?!"

holy moses...

"If you'll excuse the expression, I believe this is what you might call the "money shot."

1Q, 2004 $664,120,548
2Q, 2004 $768,938,219
3Q, 2004 $961,541,568
4Q, 2004 $730,062,345
1Q, 2005 $920,259,291
2Q, 2005 $1,126,328,392
3Q, 2005 $764,815,800
4Q, 2005 $649,708,390
1Q, 2006 $909,440,200
2Q, 2006 $967,537,371
3Q, 2006 $951,574,763
4Q, 2006 $1,055,102,116
1Q, 2007 $1,610,725,767
2Q, 2007 $1,811,899,620
3Q, 2007 $1,780,059,050
4Q, 2007 $1,447,293,960
1Q, 2008 $1,748,170,164
2Q, 2008 $1,960,112,000
3Q, 2008 $1,534,410,685
4Q, 2008 $1,267,566,456
1Q, 2009 $936,173,040
2Q, 2009 $728,154,693 "

30yrs -- these numbers by themselves are hard to interpret
Morningside Heights -- it is very difficult to find a listing for a 3 bedroom + apartment. They come and go very quickly with the exception of some dogs. Interestingly in that category the upper 90s in the UWS have seen much more availability and discounting lately. The Columbia neighborhood continues to be supply constrained for such apts. Likely not for smaller ones that are for students.

Hamilton Heights I can't comment on.
As to Tribeca and other areas, the volume*price product is hard for me to interpret since it masks the shifts in what is on the market (in terms of size distribution) and the changes in prices.

One can look at it in terms of the aggregate industry and these numbers are perfectly fine for that purpose, or from the lens of a specific buyer and their needs. For the latter, it is not easy to find a metric unless you do your own analysis and then it is most meaningful to you.

I realize that most people seem to be here to pontificate and apparently have the time to do so. However, many are seriously interested in information to help their buy or sell decisions, and I would say that despite a lot of noise, there is useful information here and I have benefited from it.
Thx to all for that

joe: the point is that in an efficient market, one would expect price cuts to be met with volume increases due to demand increases. Now, you can say that doesn't happen uniformly, so you can't take it in a vacuum. That's what behind my commentary on the neighborhoods: what it's saying to me is that we are experiencing a "flight to quality", and what it might mean to an individual buyer is that if you were thinking of buying in Harlem Heights and Morningside Heights area, you may either want to re-examine that decision altogether, or at least re-think how much of a discount/good deal you need to get in order to insure you won't get caught in a historic trap of buying into a neighborhood which was once and has not again become "unsellable".

but another point is that if one is buying at the upper end of the neighborhood (like you seem to be wanting to do in Harlem), you may find yourself getting caught in a rip-tide where you pay a premium today in a market where you get killed more than the guys who either spent the same money, or bought the same sized apartment in a different neighborhood (like UES or Soho/Tribeca).

30yrs - he's already bought (see "this lemming just went into contract), and he seems to have studied the market - and his happy with his purchase.

Thanks for the fascinating data and discussion.

What we have in my office August until now is brokers working like crazy but relatively few signatures on the dotted lines. Sales and rentals are both down since the spring for most people.

Other thing--some 'hoods are hot and some are not, not, not. West Village, anyone? Anyone? And Battery Park is running a close second in that sad race. With the WV, the problem seems to be sellers bought at the top and now they need to sell, and the price per square foot they want just looks so unrealistic today.

With Battery Park, people are afraid of the land-lease situation and they tell me that straightaway. Buyers have also been put off by all that construction going on down there.

We are based downtown, yet where we're seeing the most action is the Upper West Side, overwhelmingly so. Any listing Upper West Side and I will get immediate calls/emails. Could be some fluke about our office, but it's noticeable.

The other thing is that Lower East Side/Chinatown/East Village is busy for me at the lower price points.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

sounds about right

Business associate said the sales market is extremely busy. He has signed contracts on all his 1 and 2 bedroom listings within past 2 weeks. His studios are also continuing their surge in sales. He expects the fall to be very busy. He says quality inventory is being eaten up quickly.

Hey just tryin to spread the word, don't hate the messenger. Remember,the truth will set you free.....

sisyphean - I'm a bit late to this thread, but let me add my thanks for the aggregate sales calcs. Very interesting.

Most of the commentary has been focused on how low the first two quarters of '09 were. So they were, but it is also interesting just how different (i.e., way out of line to the high side) most of 2007-08 were from previous years. The 2007-08 numbers - right up to 4Q when summer contrct signings were still closing - are just as striking a picture of the inflation of the bubble as the 2009 numbers are of its collapse.

Business was rock'n this weekend. Thank you mother nature.

CarolSt, one large condo building I track had 23% of it's listings gone from Friday to today. It must have been a rock'n weekend.

steve, that wouldn't happen to be 303 east 33rd, would it? which decided to do a little fall housekeeping on its listings.

aboutready, no, but I am familar with that building. Good guess though. It is a pretty big condo complex.

Fluter's comment above was echoed by my uncle (who is a broker) when I was chatting with him last night. Decent activity but there doesn't seem to be much in terms of closings. He's had 3 major deals fall through due to financing.

> Business was rock'n this weekend. Thank you mother nature.

Yes, the Johns were all out...

ruh row... invesntory up again.

but keep spinnin, stevef!

Inventory up...so are sales.
I expect another big turnout this weekend.

You snooze, you lose.

> Inventory up...so are sales.

But new listings have outnumbered sales. Whoops.

> You snooze, you lose.

Yes, poor me... missed out on a 25-30% leveraged loss.

Then again, anyone dumb enough to get suckered by you probably deserved it...