Not sure how this got missed (a search on miller didn't find it)...
http://www.nydailynews.com/real_estate/2009/09/14/2009-09-14_top_appraiser_offers_forecast_for_new_yorks_housing_market.html
Q. Do you think we have hit bottom yet?
A. No. We have a lot of unwinding to go. We will continue to slide but the rate of the slide will continue to slow.
Technically, we might be coming out of the recession. But unemployment may continue to rise through 2010. Housing comes after employment.
We have some things that need to be fixed. Unemployment has to decline. We have to see a noticeable improvement in liquidity for jumbo financing [mortgages for pricey homes].
I see this as a gradual process. After we hit bottom, we will move sideways for a number of years.
But I am less bearish. A lot of real estate brokers saw the same or more contracts get signed in June or July than the year before. There was a release of pent-up demand. It wasn't a sign we hit the bottom, but it's positive.
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A. Sellers are more disconnected from the market than buyers. The reason the average time it takes to sell is double what it was three years ago is because sellers are still thinking of late 2007 or early 2008.
Sellers are keeping their prices high, while buyers are looking for discounts. There is an expanding difference between sellers and buyers. It translates into slow sales activity.
also does a comparison of this crash to others...
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Response by JuiceMan
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
funny how you skipped these two questions...
Q. The rental market has fallen in tandem with the sales market. Is now a better time to rent or to buy?
A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low.
Q. If you are a qualified buyer and have been waiting on the sidelines, is now the time to buy?
A. The evidence suggests people are making that decision. That is why we are seeing a surge in contract activity. They are recognizing an opportunity.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
I didn't skip anything, I posted the link to the entire article.
sheesh.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
No, JuiceMan, it was you who skipped this question:
Q. Are buyers able to get jumbo mortgages? How is that affecting the high end of the market?
A. Jumbo mortgages [in New York City, home loans of $729,750 or more] are readily available, but the terms are much more onerous. Therefore, fewer people qualify. That reduces the flow of sales activity at the higher end.
Whenever I talk to a real estate broker who sold a high-end property, I ask, "Did they get a mortgage?" In the last two months, I have never had an agent tell me yes. Their buyers have all paid all cash. Think about that. There are not a lot of all cash buyers out there. I am guessing under 2%.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Then, this ridiculousness:
"A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low."
Immaterial, as prices are high.
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Response by The_President
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
are you guys going to grow up or are you going to keep arguing eachother with Miller quotes?
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Yes, better to argue each other with nonsense, like dear Alpo.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9911
Member since: Mar 2009
"A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low."
Assuming you plan on never selling. Otherwise you might also consider appreciation/depreciation in your calcs.
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Response by JuiceMan
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
"are you guys going to grow up or are you going to keep arguing each other with Miller quotes?"
Ok, stevejhx, nyc10022, and I will stop arguing with each other and argue with you instead. This will be fun. What point of view do you have for us today alpine?
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
that's the spirit, JM.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> What point of view do you have for us today alpine?
I guess he's sticking with "THE MARKET IS NOT DOWN 20%. SHOW ME JUST ONE EXAMPLE!"
funny how you skipped these two questions...
Q. The rental market has fallen in tandem with the sales market. Is now a better time to rent or to buy?
A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low.
Q. If you are a qualified buyer and have been waiting on the sidelines, is now the time to buy?
A. The evidence suggests people are making that decision. That is why we are seeing a surge in contract activity. They are recognizing an opportunity.
I didn't skip anything, I posted the link to the entire article.
sheesh.
No, JuiceMan, it was you who skipped this question:
Q. Are buyers able to get jumbo mortgages? How is that affecting the high end of the market?
A. Jumbo mortgages [in New York City, home loans of $729,750 or more] are readily available, but the terms are much more onerous. Therefore, fewer people qualify. That reduces the flow of sales activity at the higher end.
Whenever I talk to a real estate broker who sold a high-end property, I ask, "Did they get a mortgage?" In the last two months, I have never had an agent tell me yes. Their buyers have all paid all cash. Think about that. There are not a lot of all cash buyers out there. I am guessing under 2%.
Then, this ridiculousness:
"A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low."
Immaterial, as prices are high.
are you guys going to grow up or are you going to keep arguing eachother with Miller quotes?
Yes, better to argue each other with nonsense, like dear Alpo.
"A. The rent vs. buy tug of war is biased toward buy. Mortgage rates are so low."
Assuming you plan on never selling. Otherwise you might also consider appreciation/depreciation in your calcs.
"are you guys going to grow up or are you going to keep arguing each other with Miller quotes?"
Ok, stevejhx, nyc10022, and I will stop arguing with each other and argue with you instead. This will be fun. What point of view do you have for us today alpine?
that's the spirit, JM.
> What point of view do you have for us today alpine?
I guess he's sticking with "THE MARKET IS NOT DOWN 20%. SHOW ME JUST ONE EXAMPLE!"