Any slower and we be going backwards...

I thought it was me, I'm only on this board a couple months and apartment hunting 5 months.
Maybe just the eye of the storm?

the new listings are pretty ho-hum. some relisting activity at lower pricing, but not very much excitement. a bunch of inexpensive and very expensive units, with stuff in the middle not being very compelling, both in terms of quality and especially price.

i'm seeing units in new developments come back out of the shadows. every day i see a building that seems doomed, at least in the short term, but reporting on that seems a bit ghoulish and even numbing after the first few.

"the new listings are pretty ho-hum. some relisting activity at lower pricing, but not very much excitement. a bunch of inexpensive and very expensive units, with stuff in the middle not being very compelling, both in terms of quality and especially price."

My sentiments exactly, I'm still boycotting open houses 'til things adjust faster.

My sentiments exactly, I'm still boycotting open houses 'til things adjust faster.

I would advise going to OHs as much as makes sence for you. Some properties just must be seen in person. Plus, have you seen some of the low ballers? It's like filenes basement, somewhere under that pile of crap is a great garment at an amazing price...if only you find it. Got to be in it to win it!

At least 4 or 5 regular posters on SE have gone into contract in the last 10 days or so. Obviously not a scientific sampling, but for everyone who posted buying or going into contract, how many out there didn't post?

And, with all the bears on this board, maybe they didn't want to be accused of being idiot "lemmings" if they actually chose to buy in this market.

4 or 5? I can think of 1...in harlem.

Trinityparent (selling),the guy who complained about having to show his rental (he bought down the hall) is another, and there were several others- but I don't have the time at this moment to go back and find them on the threads

falcogold
I hear ya but no new listings are knocking my socks off.

ph41
I would always congratulate anyone on a purchase. Especially if it's their home, not an "investment."
And I see things happening in those areas, but no one has closed in the areas I'm looking;
north of delancey, south of 23rd, west of 3rd ave.
And Im a bear that dreams of bull pastures,I want NYC to succeed first and foremost. But I what see directly in front of us looks like it will be substancially worse than better.
I think this city needs to let the bottom fall in 3/6 months so it can start back up again.
This 2/3 year crawl will be nothing but misery.

I'm still here looking. I agree with aboutready- what's out there stinks. I'm ready to buy yesterday no matter who calls me an idiot lemming as long as I can get a decent price.

rather be in it next summer--the winnings will be better--ill be lowballing in the most awful way then

I'm just bored. When I tried to discuss changes of strategy to cope with the doldrums I got called a broker. Hard to get excited about the listings out there, I agree.

It's called a moonwalk. It's the sellers pretending to go ahead with price increases while in reality you are going the other way. 'the sellers' moonwalk'

I'm closing October 5th. Don't want to be "priced out forever", I hope the joke is not on me.

Anyone who buys bf me is a premature lemming. Anyone who buys after me is a 'late to the party' lemming. Ha

Reminds me of that George carlin skit.

Dear Mr. W67fishheads

I know lemmings. Some of my best friends are lemmings and you’re no lemming but yor are a Fishhead

With my complements:

Fish heads, fish heads, rolly polly fish heads
Fish heads, fish heads, eat them up
Yumm!

Fish heads fish heads
Roly poly fish heads
Fish heads fish heads
Eat them up
Yum

In the morning laughing happy fish heads
In the evening floating in the soup

Ask a fish head anything you want to
They won't answer they can't talk

I took a fish head out to see a movie
Didn't have to pay to get it in

They can't play baseball they don't wear sweaters
They're not good dancers they don't play drums

Roly poly fish heads are never seen
Drinking cappuccino in Italian restaurants
with Oriental women

Yeah
Barnes & Barnes

Just for me ?

Seriously, am I the only one who realizes there was a tremendous leverage/easy credit induced NYC re asset bubble that wasn't just pin-pricked but was shot with a howitzer at point blank range a year ago and basically took 10 yrs to get to? I can't even get a boner for 2005 prices, it's just not that exciting. Oh yeah the fed is basically giving to a heads up as to where 'real' rates will be in 12 months ..... Ya thinkzs it'll cause NYC re to come down if rates hit 8% and lending standards get harder and unemployment stays elevated at 11%.

Am I the only one who didn't cut Econ class to get stoned?

a gift pour vous

Here's another patient would-be buyer, bored to tears with the current inventory.

If you find something you like at the price you like, buy it. But from what I'm hearing from brokers, business is very bad now. The fall season is off to a slow start and until sellers realize that the boom days are gone and may not return for a decade or more, things will just remain stagnant.

W67th, I cut ECON class to get stoned and I can STILL see that NYC RE is heading way down from here.

i got stoned right before econ class.

I never took econ, and even I can tell when the RE market is tanking.

Cool, I'm twisting a fatty right now, reading what you folks typed.

ill be blunt.....

this shit is southbound

"Oh yeah the fed is basically giving to a heads up as to where 'real' rates will be in 12 months ..... Ya thinkzs it'll cause NYC re to come down if rates hit 8% and lending standards get harder and unemployment stays elevated at 11%."

The reality of what the Fed said:

The central bank today said it will shrink its
unprecedented emergency programs that auction loans to
commercial banks and Treasury securities to bond dealers, citing
“continued improvements” in financial markets.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow policy makers
indicated yesterday for the first time since August 2008 that
the economy is accelerating, even as they recommitted keeping
their benchmark interest rate “exceptionally low” for an
“extended period.”

So what to really believe? Maybe the actual credit markets have a clue...and bond prices today, across the board, are...Higher?!? 10-year yields 44bps tighter on the year. 5 bps tighter on the day. 10-yr yields have fallen below 3.4%. Yikes...apocalypse! A bond market terrified!

North America Price Chg Yield Chg Time Source Ann 6Mon
UST 2yr T 1 09/30/11 100-04 + 01+ .937 -2 15:11 BGN -102 +3
UST 10yr T 3 5/8 08/19 102-04 + 13 3.370 -5 15:38 BGN -44 +67
UST 30yr T 4 1/2 08/39 105-22 + 18 4.165 -3 15:39 BGN -25 +53

Prices going down - sure... 8% interest rates on the way? That's idle speculation, with no factual basis whatsoever.

ieb!!!!
a dr. demento fan!
nice touch my brother, include me in the fishhead group.
Now John Volby (sp?)...that I really like!

patient09...
let me read your future...
very soon you will be getting hungry............very hungry

you right....going downstairs to shake shack...back in a bit.

In Harlem inventory is picking up. Most of the listings that are taken off the market failed to sell. The new houses are coming at prices that are just not reasonable, and the percentage of contracts is really small. There are few banks giving mortgages for more than 1m. There is no way but down from here.

Inventory overall is still higher than in august...

Mimi,

Agreed. Gonna be another very slow fall and winter until Sellers and Developers wake up to the new reality in NYC.

fish heads unite! We will not be forced to buy nyc real estate.

Membership app and list:

"I would always congratulate anyone on a purchase."

Ugly baby syndrome.

tina mentioned yesterday, and noah has a piece covering this at UD, that sellers may slow down the market if they get too aspirational. i've had a couple of broker friends tell me that their companies are telling them not to bother with sellers that won't price realistically. oddly, the recent "good" news may have seriously hurt sellers who need to sell, because it may be that only estates and distressed sellers actually sell for the next couple of months. as w67th put, slow grind down, but that wouldn't be exactly good for price stability.

just pick out a few big buildings and see how many units have been put on the market since lehman and how many have sold. the relisting churning has been quite impressive.

"ugly baby syndrome"

Yes of course, but half those babies turn out cute eventually.

{BTW, I am probably the only other person this board that has eaten at the Steak Loft as a kid. Miss those all you can eat peel away shrimp}

maybe if i had gotten stoned before econ, i wouldn't have dropped out?

w67...good one..ever notice that someone driving slower than you is an....."idiot" and someone driving faster than you is a....."maniac!!"

hey w67... I think if circumstances were different(bull/bear) we coulda been friends..in the next life.

Stevef, there is noone who has done me so much wrong that I wouldn't help them out on the street if he/she needed it. In this lifetime, you and any of the long time posters r cool w/ me except=>

the only two that I really wouldn't 'want' to meet live is shrimpie(way too stalkish) and carolst (total meth head).

w67,
I take offence to the CarolSt meth head comment. As I have written here before I am quit sure her head is filled with candy. The kind of candy that spills out of piñata when it is whacked hard enough.
I would love to meet her on my b-day or cinco de mayo.

I love love love reading carolst posts though, there is such anticipation, like knowing a volcano is about to blow, then I sit back and think 'i knew it'.

w67..me to bro. hope it works out for you in the end. peace.

slow = umm, the holiday factor? Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur very early this year, but I've got my hands full trying to move current deals around -- give it a week before lots of us are back at our desks and presenting new inventory ...

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"Stevef, there is noone who has done me so much wrong that I wouldn't help them out on the street if he/she needed it."

Yes, I too feel for the disabled and mentally retarded like SteveF...

nyc10022........................................................................................meow

wooof!

So before the big inventory roll out first and formost we must atone for our sins. Skip a couple of meals sit in Temple and stay awake in the face of mind numbing jiberish spoken in a foreign tongue. Then and only then will you be slathered in ecclesiastical 'white out' and all is forgiven.

Think about it...one day no food or drink in exchange for a clean slate. Take that Christmas!

not to mention the giant RE inventory bonanza that awaits all the good little jews and their monothiestic brethren. Once again, it's the pagans that have been scooping up all the 'picks of the litter'. Makes you wonder if multiple G-ds would be more helpful in a home search.

new listings are still outpacing contracts signed by a two to one margin, i believe. it's just that SOOO many apartments have been delisted. time will tell, and we shall see, but a lack of new inventory can't help sellers at this point. most of the sideliners have been looking. i don't think many will be compelled to jump just because the pickings are slim to ugly.

"because it may be that only estates and distressed sellers actually sell for the next couple of months."

a) This is something I and ?w81? talked about in another thread a few weeks ago, and
b) It's exactly what's happening in many of the other markets across the country: volume way up, but a HUGE percentage of that volume in foreclosure sales at greatly discounted prices. If you think (IF) that the increase in sales we saw in the Spring of this year were largely brought about due to decreased prices bringing sideline sitters off teh fence and into the fray, I don't think it's too hard to figure out the result of reversing the incentive.

I think 30yrs had an interesting comment on another thread about RE firms shedding agents (or, rather, letting them work from home). This could have a reasonable effect on pricing and getting the markets moving because there is an oversupply of agents in the market.

If there are a bunch of agents in the market all desperate to take a listing -- pretty much anyone will take any listing at any price. In a market with "too many" agents, only the very best agents are refusing listings due to unrealistic sellers. Even unrealistic sellers get listed -- even though they never sell. However, if you thin out the agent pool a bit, listings per agent goes up, and agents can be more selective about taking listings. This **forces** sellers to become more realistic about pricing, because, if they don't, no one will take the listing.

So, reducing the number of agents will lower prices and increase transaction volumes (assuming there's some elasticity of demand here). This means that the large RE firms have a far bigger interest in cutting agents than just saving expenses: it increases transaction volume.

Obviously, the culling has to be significant enough that agents can be selective about listings, but it could have some marginal effect.

dream on...this will take more time.

no agent will refuse a listing. and even if three did, there would be a fourth to take it.

i'm not blaming agents. this is a market at work.

ever so slowly.

CC: Agreed. Not saying it would be significant or overnight. Just thought it was an interesting phenomenon that pricing could be affected by number of agents.

look back and you'll see that new listings were ahead of contracts all this year, and yet inventory grew part of the time. I think I started a thread on that once.

inventory is increasing, but modestly relative to expectation. The signs are there for a collapse similar to last year -- if a strikingly bad economic news shows up this will happen quickly, else I think we'll drift where well priced (relative to current market) and attractive properties will sell quickly and the rest will just sit and either drift lower or look ridiculous by their presence as many do today

Rabbit season..... Duck season...... Rabbit season..... Duck season...... Rabbit season..... Duck season...... Rabbit season..... Duck season...... BROKER SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

w67thstreet
1 day ago
ignore this person
report abuse I love love love reading carolst posts though, there is such anticipation, like knowing a volcano is about to blow, then I sit back and think 'i knew it'.

That's really funny. I love reading YOUR posts, there's such anticipation, like knowing a volcano is about to blow ...

Was it just 2 weeks ago you went on some tirade imagining you'd been accused of problems with children? And your rants about caste systems in India. Or that time you wanted everyone in the middle east to kill each other. And the one about the Carlyle group was a classic. How about how you want to dance on other people's graves (but yet you'll help them on the street??). Or your odd infatuation with Shawn Felker.

And then this one ... your "apology" http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14482-w67thstreet-would-like-to-apologize