You Bitter Renters Lose Again: Case Shiller Index Shows ANOTHER Increase!

Case-Shiller doesn't include condominiums or co-ops.

Alpie,

I don't think bitter renters on this site really care about indices of single-family residences in places like Alpine, NJ (where you live).

Have you raised your asking price by 0.8 percent, by the way?

it does not matter if the index includes Manhattan. The media will report it and it will increase confidence.

"The media will report it and it will increase confidence."

Good. Maybe it will also increase the availability of jumbo loans. What's your theory on that?

not seasonally adjusted, as well.

and then the new york city report will come out.

have you sold yet? maybe you should consider some cosmetic changes, i hear it's hard to sell in alpine these days.

I bought in Nov 2001, sold in June 2006, and been renting since? Are you saying I missed the move?

"Case-Shiller doesn't include condominiums or co-ops".

They do have a condo index:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/2,3,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,0.html

It shows NYC area still declining while others are going up. NY is back to late 2004/early 2005 levels according to them.

So based on the ACTUAL DATA posted by modern, it seems that the title of the thread should have been: "You Bitter (Manhattan) Owners Lose Again: Case Shiller Index Shows ANOTHER Decrease!"

Those pesky facts. I hate it when they get in the way of a good preconceived notion.

In either case it shows we're about at January 2005 prices for the entire NY metropolitan region for condos (not co-ops). Which is about what 10,000 posts on this board have already said. And as soon as we get to June 2003 prices, we'll be about equal to rents.

That will mean, seasonally adjusted, going from 197 to 156, for a fall of about 21%. Which is less than what I've been predicting (30%) but I'm including only Manhattan. If you then adjust for about 17% inflation from 2003 to 2009, in real terms you'll be back to 2001 prices.

Which is about when the bubble started.

I still dont think that index is exactly 1:1 to Manhattan market. Anyone find the methodology of that index? link?

urbandigs, how much does rent have to increase or sales have to decrease for you to get back in, all personal emotional considerations aside? Just pure rent vs own however you do your numbers?

alan ".8%" that's funny...

everyone else don't hit alpine w/ logic.... it might hurt his brain.

by alpie's logic anyone who didn't sell on 6-15-2007 7:04.25p.m. EST (the mkt peak) is a complete baffoon, you included UD.

He got a brain? When?

UD, it's not 1:1 Manhattan. It's ahead of Manhattan timewise, and below Manhattan increase-wise. But still, the anecdotal evidence posted here tends to corroborate.

it more has to do with stability in my salary, assets...everyone has a personal story to tell that may positively or negative affect them. Unfortunately, I was dealt with a negative life poker hand to deal with. Trust me, I wish I was one to have a trust fund in my name or tons of money left down to me when dealing with a tough family loss. But sometimes other things pan out and you have to deal with it.

My original plan (back in 2007 before the correction) of buying in a year or two (2009 really) is now pushed way way out.

what up W67! yes, def a baffon move. I should have sold at 7:03PM on June 15th, 2007.

Alpo... still a moron. Is his his living in Jersey the cause or the effect.

NYTimes / UD reporting.... Q3 Manhattan... DOWN.

Whoops.

Guess its clear who the bitter moron is...

It does not matter if the index includes Manhattan. The media will report it and it will increase confidence.

The tail wags the dog

you're an idiot T_P. it's called a W. and it doesn't stand for winner.

> It does not matter if the index includes Manhattan. The media will report it and it will increase confidence.

Absolutely. Of course, the report they'll be paying attention to is Manhattan quarterly median report, which comes out in a few days, and will be down.

So, to your point, the newspapers saying "Manhattan down again, even while country up" is going to scare quite a few people.

> Those pesky facts. I hate it when they get in the way of a good preconceived notion.

Ha, well put.

Its the story of alpo for quite some time. Pretty much, he's almost 100% wrong generally.

riversider.... this will build a TON of confidence, right?

"However, a review of property records shows average co-op and condo prices falling to about $1.25 million in the third quarter, off 2 percent from the previous one, and 6 percent from the third quarter last year."

"You Bitter Renters Lose Again"

WOW, those buyers are so bitter and seething, they can't even tell up from down!

about 6 months people wre talkin abt this fall as being when things picked up in NYC. now we're here and we still have the rental market in decline and the for sale market slowly following it. and we already know the big banks are gonna pay most of comp in restricted stocked this year. but hey maybe banks will go back to zero down mortgages and all will be fine again

Alpie has been banging the optimist drum for some time and it would appear that the banging was warrented. Take your victory lap while it lasts my brother.

falco, not a lap. and no real run. more like a limp along 14th street between 1st and A.

and hell, with that kind of governmental support, i'm disappointed. i, quite frankly, expected more. foreclosures not allowed, tax credits, massive mortgage rate manipulation, stunning purchasing by fed of rmbs, FHA becoming guarantor of new wave of subprime loans, revival of mortgage origination fraud, etc.

i'm sure i'm missing a thing here or there.

*yawn*

There were also up-ticks along the way down last time. We won't know which position is right for a decade or so.

Finding a Job May Be Getting Easier Than It Looks

"Employment in the U.S. is rebounding at a “significantly faster” pace than seasonally adjusted data on jobless claims would suggest"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCAnEd6u3nD4

"YOU BITTER RENTERS LOSE AGAIN" You can't seriously be using Shiller to say that things are going up can you? Have you heard anything out of his mouth in the last month? He says we go much lower from here. He says markets don't go straight down. He says fools rush in and eventually you'll run out of fools.
We go lower from here. You can't possibly think that with 400,000 unemployed people in NYC that prices will go up do you? You can't possibly think that with the difficulty of getting a jumbo mortgage prices will go up do you?

Come on - the filth that you're preaching here is dangerous. People are spending money on homes that will be worth much less 6 months from now. There is no way we aren't lower 6 months from now - no way.

jsmith u cant be serious. they just came out with statistics today that show employment in ny and nj is worse than in the rest of the country.

NYC is still tanking D bag

"about 6 months people wre talkin abt this fall as being when things picked up in NYC. now we're here and we still have the rental market in decline and the for sale market slowly following it. and we already know the big banks are gonna pay most of comp in restricted stocked this year. but hey maybe banks will go back to zero down mortgages and all will be fine again"

Buy now or be priced out forever!

pukerama a gogo

"eventually you'll run out of fools"

There's always LICComment.

Poor 'old bitter alpo.

Hmmm. Housing prices rose -- along with taxes and expenses --- but my Rent FELL 25%! Add in the commercial and corporate real estate waves coming and I am happy to have sold in 2007!!

Housing prices in, well, places that don't matter.

Housing prices here... fell again.

"There is no way we aren't lower 6 months from now - no way."

Question for the bears-- those who are absolutely certain about price direction for the next few months if not years. Have you positioned yourselves that way? Have you bought a short-RE ETF like SRS or something similar?

Jazzman, if you truly have that degree of certainty about price direction, then these ETFs have to be no-brainer investments. I would think that a lot of people here must be involved, given the level of conviction we're hearing.

Is there anything like this available for NYC? If there's nothing available for NYC specifically, what's the next best alternative?

Interesting YTD chart on SRS by the way.

Thanks.

http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html?Current%20Quote%20and%20Chart

http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html?Overview

"Question for the bears-- those who are absolutely certain about price direction for the next few months if not years. Have you positioned yourselves that way? Have you bought a short-RE ETF like SRS or something similar? "

I already made money on the short bet.... as well as a lot of SSOs on the flip side.

Though, my prediction was for Q3, and it looks like I was right. I've said all along going forward, nothing is certain, but I think the intelligent bet is still not RE, because on the up side you're talking about, what, a couple points, but on the bottom, who knows.

Re doesn't V, and the cost of waiting to see it relatively cheap, both in terms of a potential miss of uptick and the cost of renting in the meantime (you actually make money there)

RE U's as in Ubottom---and this one will be a very wide on--were still falling on the left side of the U

AVM -
I'm not short SRS - it has a 95% expense ratio and is too broad (plus ETFs have yet to prove representative enough of what they try to track for me to invest -thus I stay away from Shiller too) - I think NYC for sale housing is headed lower. I'm not certain if rental housing is going lower and commercial and retail real estate are not my business. I think it's unlikely that some US markets head lower than they are today. Some started falling 2 years before we started falling.

In my PA I'm now very short the DOW (weighted average is a bit below and effective DOW 9,400) and VERY short oil (weighted average of a bit more than 71). I wish I new a way to short a $4M three-bedroom on 82nd and 1st. Let me know if you know of a way.

"I wish I new a way to short a $4M three-bedroom on 82nd and 1st. Let me know if you know of a way. "

there can't be one by definition imho. look at shiller's futures, there's no volume at all cause who is going to be the counter party of the bitter renter bears? bullish homeowners are already too invested in RE for their own sake to play it even more. hedging RE exposure also means taking a bearish position. so who's left? the_president cannot pull the bull position all by himself.

AVM, can you point to one of those short ETFs that focuses on NYC only? I certainly wouldn't make the same bet about the rest of the country. In many places outside NYC, something resembling a bottom may have been hit.

Man, alpo, how bitter ARE you?

Not as bitter as columbiacounty.

Besides unemployment still being high and the slow season coming up, the 8,000 tax incentive is going to end in a month. Prices are going to drop like a rock.

Agree on high unemployment. I think they'll extend the tax credit(MISTAKE), and don't think prices will drop like a rock. I think we'll be flat to slightly down. We're passed the point where prices just plummet. At this point everyone has enough information on the new reality, so movements should be pretty much what market has priced in. I don't think we'll see any surprises here in the next quarter or two.

The next shock will come from the dollar collapse. Gov't thinks it can talk the dollar up and not back its action with any words. No country has ever done well long term in the face of a declining currency. Just ask the Spanish..etc

agree on unemployment.

brilliant insight. thanks for sharing

more lies about dollar collapse. go away.

rs, care much about the value of your new construction condo?

columbiacounty
about 1 hour ago

agree on unemployment.

brilliant insight. thanks for sharing

more lies about dollar collapse. go away.

thanks for continuing to share your bitterness with life with the rest of us. go away.

tell us who you really are.

and...by the way... life is great. except for you.

Life is so great you have to follow around a guy calling him a liar?

You have to curse frontporch because she is a broker?

curse front porch? hardly. learn how to read.

Did I just make you angry?

Or were you angry before I showed up?

Or perhaps since birth?

nope. try to respond to the question. when did i "curse front porch?"

http://fermentation.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/27/tinfoil.jpg

let him be jmbuch1, cc has found his Raison d'être . I find it kinda amusing.

pathetic. liar.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/15136-im-a-re-boker-bc-ny-attywant-to-sell-wifes-placerebny-required

oh columbiacounty, again angry. Have you ever had a good day?

rs clearly you are jmbuch1.

actually, i don't think cc is angry at all. i think cc merely has a decent time revealing certain things cc doesn't like. cc may be angry, but you have little to no proof of that. saying liar repeatedly may be repetitive but it doesn't of itself indicate anger. just disdain.

john burch: what is the point of your link?

You wanted evidence of you cursing frontporch.

Now that you have it, are you angry?

i missed it. where and what is the curse?

You missed it? Do you need hooked on phonics?

Oh, I forgot, I do.

where?

nice to make remarks. enjoy yourself.

Enjoy myself?
Wow, that's the nicest thing you've ever said to anyone. Are you sure you were being serious?

still waiting on the cursing of front porch.

p.s. enjoy yourself was meant to be sarcastic.

jmbuch, you still need hooked on phonics, sad.

you're not looking so sane, dollface.

Sarcasm? Are you sure? I'm not sure there's much of a difference between sarcasm and lying. You wouldn't want to be caught lying, right? After all, you are the one who immediately likes to call others a liar.

Hooked on Phonics? Come on, give me Baby Einstein or something.

What programs are available for children who are born angry and never seem to smile?

yap, yap yap

either you get it about lying or you don't. and its clear that you don't. lying sucks.

yap, yap yap?

I thought you were literate. Is the anger overwhelming you? Is your lying making it hard to keep your sanity?

nope.

i'm not lying...you are. you can keep going all nite with your nonsense. what is the point?

Hey columbiacounty, how was the weather in Columbia County? Here in New York City it was a nice sunny day, cool morning, nice warmth mid-day in the sunlight, cool comfortable evening.

Would have pissed you off if you were here.

just keep avoiding the question. kind of awkward for you, huh?

jmbuch, your thoughts don't seem to be so positive. might you be angry?

aboutready, very perceptive. You and me both get angry, like you are angry and me now.
But I doubt it's your permanent state of being. I know it's not mine.
columbiacounty is like the Joker, except where the Joker is always smiling, columbiacounty is ALWAYS angry.

hey buch--you are clearly obsessed with cc, who can be as snarky as any poster anywhere--in fact anonymity allows any of us to behave as we wish, including you--cc has drawn a line in the sand with respect to lying--i like that line in the sand--

in the process of trying to diss cc, you have lied, something we know irritates cc--cc never cursed at fp--you indicted clearly that cc had--you are a fucking liar--i just cursed at you

you are also ill--get meds

No lies. Read the discussion. I think it is very clear. I didn't say he used a curse word. I said he cursed frontporch. That was pretty clear to me. His hostility is evident, both in that discussion and on prior discussions.

So thanks for the curse, the wrong accusation (which points back at you) and the diagnosis.

jmbuch1, you're not happier today? i thought you said that you and i were only angry sometimes? your anger seems rather persistent.

btw, not angry at you. don't care.

And that seems quite apparent.

Fun post of the week...

Oh, alpo/socialist/president... what a putz....