second avenue subway

Not all that insightful for me to say values on First and York will improve and most definitely apts on those aves become more sell-able. I question if it makes much of a difference on second which isn't all that far from subways now, and in fact, may hurt some values of 2nd Ave apts atop subway entraces/exits. I'm not an UES'er and haven't given this any thought beyond your post. Wonder what others think.

I do think you'd best have a long horizon if investing on second near subway since the mess will continue for a long time.

Not that you asked but I'll guess 2020 for opening day. But I'm an optimist.

Biggest % gain may go to cheap stuff in the 96th & 1st area. But generally I agree with Kylewest.

I think the possible possibility of the line being completed is already priced into the market today.

I also think that if the line eventually opens, it will have a substantial positive impact even on Lex & 3rd, because the Lex IRT is so massively overcrowded that many people won't even consider trying to use it ... the classic "nobody goes there -- it's too crowded."

Too bad they're only building a 2-track line ... but I think the routing and phasing are very smart. Phase One will go directly to more of the central (rather than eastern) parts of midtown, which makes it a distinct alternative to the Lex IRT in terms of destination.

according to what I've read, the "official" completion date for the 2nd Ave. subway is 2018, which means 2022.

Finished? hope to take a ride in my life time.
How will it change 2nd Ave.? Papaya King on 2nd and 72, 2nd and 68, 2nd and 86 etc. Papaya King like foot traffic on Second will do little to enhance the quality of our lives. Where are you taking this train to? Phase one, which is the only part of this project which is funded is hardly the way to get 'downtown'. Some day when all 4 phases are done it will have some real value but, by that time you'll just drive your 'Jetsons like' flying car or use the telaporter which occupies the space in your apartment where the half bathroom was (who say's half bathrooms are worthless).

falco: you are truly a genius! because I certainly am. When I read the Op, I thought Papaya King on every corner...I thought 86 and lex. and there you go, stealing my thunder.

Op: remember, this has nothing to do with transportation or RE: valuations or quality of life. Simply another make work project.

Falco, I'm not sure of your vintage but I'm half ready to bet that no one who has received the dreaded letter from AARP will ever set foot on the T train unless some descendant with a good sense of irony takes their ashes for a ride.

I've lived on the UES east of Lexington for more than 15 years and I do think that the 2nd avenue subway will have a tremendous effect on that part of the UES. If you go to restaurants, movies, etc. east of second avenue now, it's generally quiet except for the stretch near the hospitals. People don't want to walk over from Lexington and taking the bus is too slow. Personally I'll miss having a part of the UES which isn't so crowded that you can't even walk along the street, but it does seem as if the 2nd avenue subway will eventually arrive, at least from 96th to 63rd.

I give it an optimistic 50% that Phase One will be completed by 2020, but I do think they'll continue work this time, and at least get Phase One done, which is huge by the standards of this city since the 1930s.

With the Phase One 'Q' train, it's six stops from 72nd to Canal St., with lots of transfer opportunities along the way, plus lots of key midtown destinations without transfers. And then onwards through the charming City of Brooklyn, all the way to Luna Park, Sodom by the Sea.

http://www.mta.info/capconstr/sas/images/sas_map_lg.gif

Alan would you care to wager a beer in 2020 as to whether the T is running (god that sounds so Boston...eech)? We could meet at a bar on Second Avenue...by subway or not depending on who is buying.

Sure, I'll bump my optimism up to 51% and take you up on that. We could meet in a bar under the 3rd Avenue el (god that sounds so Chicago...eech) ... I mean they'll have to rebuild it, right? [insert reference to getting steel back from Japan somehow]

Alan, I hate to have to correct you in public since you are so often my ally on this board but the it was the SIXTH Avenue el that was sold to Japan as scrap iron in 1936 and came back to haunt too many Americans in form of WWII armaments. (See Ezra Pound "Plato Told Him", the only poem I remember from college probably because it referenced NYC landmark).

The 3rd Avenue el was removed in 1955, hence the plethora of immediate post war buidlings on or adjacent to 3rd Avenue (including mine built in 1958). The really amazing thing given the pace of 2nd avenue subway (non)construction is the pace at which the 3rd Avenue el project was dissembled. I have I have book of photos showing an operational el from 1955 and yet by the time very close family friends moved to 3rd Avenue and 20th Street in 1956, all remanents of the el were gone. (So I was told by my parents and the "children" of said friends with whom I remain close. Let it go on the record that I DO not remember and did not come on the scene until several years later, by which time they were already talking about building the Second Avenue subway).

its definitely gonna happen. I like buying yorkville becuase your getting the 2nd ave subway option for free right now

marco, you're not getting the 2nd Ave. subway option for free -- it's priced in, not as if it's there now, but to the extent anyone believes it will be. In other words, the glee of many many people buying "early" makes that area pricier than it would otherwise be. And the glee is all theirs as they spend the "free" time waiting for a Lex IRT train that has room for them, in anticipation of their great windfall.

Liz, yeah, but it's such a big story it can spread beyond the truth, can't it? Anyway, what happened to the Third Avenue steel? I'm thinking Datsuns ... even if it means a 20-year time lag.

I dont think its priced in. not like it will be when its actually up and running.

I'm with marco on the "priced in" question. When they started work in 2007, it was a 6 year project with service commencing in 2013. Here we are 2 1/2 years later and it's a 7 years REMAINING project with service commencing in 2016. While I believe that it will actually get done this time, I also believe that the timing is so long and uncertain that no one is paying today for the propsect of improved subway service 7 to 10 years from now.

marco, you're essentially saying that you have a unique view -- that you recognize the value before it's manifest, but more or less nobody else does. Wrong. People buy and say "it's isolated, the commute is miserable, it's not a very happening neighborhood -- but I feel good about paying more than I would for Staten Island because my investment will skyrocket when (if) the subway opens.

It's like the "leave early for the country, to beat the traffic" mentality -- everyone else uses that same trick, and you get stuck in worse traffic as a result.

I didn't read marco's post as saying that he has unique insight. I read is as saying that the damn thing is so far off and the timing so uncertain that no one is putting value on it in making bids today. The whole value of my investment will skyrocket argument sounds straight from a broker or developer's mouth. I just don't believe that buyers are placing bets on this by baking 2nd ave subway assumptions into the price they are willing to pay on the UES east of 3rd.

Of course my inability to imagine why someone would pay up for the 2nd ave subway option doesn't mean that someone wouldn't, but conversely I don't see how it can be proven that people are paying up and that prices are higher due to SAS optimism that they otherwise would have been. Without that proof, I don't see how one arrives at a flat statement like, "Wrong."

I think when work on the Second Ave. subway actually started and there was optimism it would actually go online in 2013-14, you started to see signs that sellers (and especially developers) were pricing more aggressively based on the assumption that these locations were going to become "imminently more convenient". On the other hand, that timing coincided with the peak of the market when aggressive pricing was the norm regardless of the excuse/verbiage. Now that we know Derek Jeter will long be in the Hall of Fame before anyone there is an operation Second Ave. Subway, I think the "premium" has been removed from pricining assumptions coninciding with overall pricing declines.

I like to think I have a unique view. 2nd ave subway line is not quantifiable right now. I dont think it will be until its actually opens.then I think 1st and York get a nice lift. even without it I still wanna live in yorkville.

I used to work for the MTA during the Ravitch/Kiley era when the rebuilding of the system started. I financed all those new stainless steel subway cars from Kawasaki and Bombardier on the IRT. The recently appointed new MTA chief had the office next to me back then, good guy, has some great ideas he is bringing back from London with him that you will like:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2009/10/05/2009-10-05_new_man_at_helm_fresh_from_london_aims_for_different_customer_experience_here_th.html

The MTA Capital Program is in very bad shape. The cost to just maintain what we have is overwhelming and the State refuses to set up enough dedicated funding sources.

The 2nd Ave subway was mothballed once (first planned in the 1920s, started tunnels in 1970s), I would not rule it out this time either. Perhaps Phase I will be completed but then we could have another 20 or 30 year gap to completion.

NYC trivia question: Can anybody guess why when the subway fare went to $1, the MTA didn't just use the Susan B. Anthony dollar coin instead of minting new tokens?

legit mothball potential says benefits cant be discounted
current pain of construction for those where it's now happening is priced

Phase two completion isn't absolutely necessary for the impact to be substantial.

I love the Oyster card pricing concept, and hope it comes here FAST! That article doesn't really make clear the beauty part: you don't need to decide whether you want a single ride, a weekly pass, or a monthly pass ... you ride as you see fit, and it grants the price breaks when you reach each threshold.

Next train/bus time info will also be invaluable ... it's disgraceful how MTA has dragged its heels on those.

SBA dollars ... tokens are paid for and then lost, unredeemed, etc., enough to be worth the trouble? Union? I give up.

"NYC trivia question: Can anybody guess why when the subway fare went to $1, the MTA didn't just use the Susan B. Anthony dollar coin instead of minting new tokens?"

Because the number of SBAD coins needed for MTA purposes alone would be X times the number of coins actually minted and in circulation?

i think 2nd avenue subway wont have a huge effect on ues real estate because stations will be so far apart - 96th, 86, 72, 59. so if you live on 1st/york and 72 you may see a bounce, but if you're on 79th and york not going to help you much.

"NYC trivia question: Can anybody guess why when the subway fare went to $1, the MTA didn't just use the Susan B. Anthony dollar coin instead of minting new tokens?"

The Treasury Dept had actually asked the MTA to use the dollar coin because they thought it would get it into widespread use.

Alanhart was close but lost tokens etc was just a small part of it.

Tokens outstanding were a huge interest free loan to the MTA (and this is when short term interest rates were 8-10%). Remember "ten-packs"? You were loaning the MTA money when you bought them. There were something like 30 million tokens in people's pockets, so switching to the Susan B. Anthony dollar meant the MTA would have to come up with $1 each or $30 million in cash to buy the $1 coins, which they didn't have, so they stuck with buying tokens at a few pennies each.

LOL this thread always seems to revive itself every few months.

satsu, I bought on yorkville/UES and I heard the same old rumors. I sold years ago and those rumors still go on, except the years get pushed back 10 years.

It's highly likely the 2nd ave subway will still be in the works when you sell your property, but maybe you can pass the dream to someone else. (When has any project you know of gone on time, on budget, let alone a city/gov project? I submit the big dig in boston.)

I would not buy an apartment to increase in value. However, an apartment building might be another thing...

How about a business on second ave.?
what do you think the impact on that would be?
for starters, the construction and traffic makes the sidewalks persona non-grata. Retail business suffers enormously. Landlords are still asking psycho rents on second. Call on the corner of 72nd and second....$225 sq/ft. How do you like those madison ave. prices? The leases are for 5-7-10 years, just long enough to suffer but, no payoff on the back end. Anyone remember Columbus Ave. in the 80's? It was so busy on the weekend you could not even walk on the sidewalk and then the city fixed the street. They fixed it so good that Columbus has never been more than a shadow of it's former self.
Shout out to all the 'Lucy's retired surfer's bar' fans of yesteryear.
Second started off pretty crappy so it does not have far to fall but, the front line devistation is brutal. where's the city tax breaks for businesses on the blocks?
where's the rent decreases?
where's the MTA money to invigorate the businesses traped behind enemy lines?
Second ave pays the price for the payof that may never be seen.
The subway is the UES's own little Vietnam, digging tunnels, shifting enemy lines, suprise street closures and a Vietmin like MTA running the show.
Love you long time.........Joe

its too late to not build this thing, they're already torn up the streets and destroyed businesses, removed people from their homes, spend wacko money. No turning back now.

"Biggest % gain may go to cheap stuff in the 96th & 1st area"

Nah, definitelyt eh 2nd ave stuff. INCREDIBLE discounts there before its an absolute mess.

Good history of the project here:
http://maloney.house.gov/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=1942&Itemid=61

The Second Avenue Subway was originally approved for construction during the LaGuardia administration in the 1930's.

It actually predated LaGuardia by 5 years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_New_York_City_Subway_expansion_(1929-1940)

I bet most people on SE don't even know what the IND, IRT, and BMT are anymore.

some of us old farts still remember.

an unmitigated disaster for businesses and anyone living anywhere near the jobsite for the next 10 years. i would not touch a commercial or residential property anywhere near this thing until the job is OVER and you have had a couple years to assess what the impact will be near the stations; pollution, pedestrian traffic, crap retail etc...

"i think 2nd avenue subway wont have a huge effect on ues real estate because stations will be so far apart - 96th, 86, 72, 59. so if you live on 1st/york and 72 you may see a bounce, but if you're on 79th and york not going to help you much."

ANY UPDATE ON THIS??? Considering an apt on East 65th around 2nd avenue and want to make sure before I jump through hoops with the coop board that the area won't be terribly affected.

No update.

Stick with WEST 65th.

FOr sure no station at 65th. It skips from 72 to 59.

The current construction areas are a mess. Not much space to walk on the sidewalks.

How ya doing, Alan? Where can I get the best crabcakes in Manhattan? Thanks. Really.

don't bank your decision on this... it may not even be done before you move out.

Truth, you make the best crabcakes in Manhattan. You buy the lump crabmeat (already shelled!) at Citarella. You have a recipe that's so good you won't divulge it.

modern, I once told someone that I get to my destination by taking the IRT to the BMT, and she replied that I could just take the Independent Line instead. Trumped.

There are a few negatives about the area around 65th and 2nd Avenue, but I wouldn't think thst the possibility of the Second Avenue subway would impact a purchase in the next few years. There are several very nice buildings on East 65th Street and my more immediate concerns might be the amount of traffic on Second Avenue going towards the bridge, the lack of good restaurants right nearby as well as the distance of at least 6 blocks to the better markets and shops. Proximity to midtown is a big plus.

> FOr sure no station at 65th. It skips from 72 to 59.

Not totally accurate.

The new tracks, yes, no NEW stop. But there will be two lines, the Q and T running on it, with the Q being an extension on the UES. The Q stops at....

63rd (lex)

if it wasn't clear, I mean the Q *in the new scheme* stops at 63/lex. I believe its the Q simply going from 57/7 and jumping on the current F track (which, I think, used to be the old B track a few years back, when the F went to 53rd instead)

Also, if you really care, the 72nd street station is planned to have entrances at 72nd and 69th. Similarly with 86th (and 83rd) and 96th (and 94th).

and air conditioning!

Thanks, Alan. I think that maybe you make the best crabcakes in Manhattan. They will be even better when you get that new oven.

a 22k crabcake!

MTA: First phase of Second Ave. subway on track

Extension of the Q line is expected to be completed by the current 2016 deadline, but the remaining stages of the project to extend line from 125th Street to downtown are still unfunded.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority said Monday that the first phase of the Second Avenue subway is on track to be completed by the agency's current deadline of 2016, but the rest of the project remains unfunded with no timetable yet for its construction.

The first phase will be an extension of the Q line from the west side to Second Avenue at 63rd Street and northward to 103rd Street. Passengers will be able to transfer at 63rd Street and Lexington Avenue for service to Queens. New stations will be constructed along Second Avenue at 72nd, 86th and 96th streets. The MTA had initially said the first phase would be completed by 2012 but extended that deadline first to 2013 and later to 2016. The delays have angered residents and, City Council members said today, hurt small businesses. MTA officials said several businesses are suing the agency for damaged related to the construction of the Second Avenue line.

Michael Horodniceanu, the president of MTA Capital Construction, said the first phase of the $4.45 billion project is fully funded, within its budget and on schedule to be completed by 2016.

That date, he said, is “set, as far as I'm concerned, in stone.” But he said, “you should understand one thing: We have a variety of factors that many times are unanticipated."

The remaining stages of construction would ultimately extend the line 8.5 miles along Second Avenue from 125th Street to Hanover Square in Lower Manhattan. Mr. Horodniceanu said those phases have not been funded. Mr. Horodniceanu would not say when the next phase could begin.

Mr. Horodniceanu testified Monday before the City Council's transportation committee. The committee was investigating the project and its impact on small businesses along Second Avenue. Councilwoman Diana Reyna, D-Brooklyn and chairwoman of the committee on small business pressed MTA officials for information on the economic impact construction has had on businesses. She proposed establishing a “relocation fund” for businesses whose sales have fallen as a result of the construction, similar to one created for a handful of businesses and 48 residents from buildings the MTA acquired or condemned for the project.

The MTA, Mr. Horodniceanu said, only reimburses businesses for damages incurred during construction, and not for loss of revenue.

“We are not in a position to provide any financial help,” to businesses, he said. “We are not going to look at claims unless there is a claim related to something we have done."

Council Member Peter Koo, R-Queens, asked if a portion of the project's funding could be set aside for businesses hurt by the construction.

"Absolutely not, sir," Mr. Horodniceanu said.

The first section of the Second Avenue subway is expected to carry 200,000 passengers daily.

“We are acknowledging that construction impacts the businesses and the residents' quality of life,” Mr. Horodniceanu said. “But at the end of day, this area will be better off because we are providing transportation to their front door.”

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100614/SMALLBIZ/100619931

Michael Horodniceanu, the president of MTA Capital Construction, said the first phase of the $4.45 billion project is fully funded, within its budget and on schedule to be completed by 2016.

That date, he said, is “set, as far as I'm concerned, in stone.” But he said, “you should understand one thing: We have a variety of factors that many times are unanticipated."

I still say I won't ride the SAS without a senior fare card, which I will still be many years away from in 2016. Of course it wouldn't have that much impact on me anyway since its not going south of 63rd street anytime in my lifetime (and I've got good longevity genes, whatever that means).

"The first phase will be an extension of the Q line from the west side to Second Avenue at 63rd Street and northward to 103rd Street."

How is the Q going to go to 103rd St. if the MTA is goign to send it to Astoria next week after the W line ceases to exist?

In 10 years we'll have all new letters.

Socialist: "How is the Q going to go to 103rd St. if the MTA is goign to send it to Astoria next week after the W line ceases to exist?"

ME: Really? Are you that dense? They can easily re-instate the W in 2016, which in fact is what will happen. See today's article on the Q (yes Q) going up 2nd avenue per the MTA:

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100614/SMALLBIZ/100619931

The SAS is not going to be completed anywhere near 2016. The Feds said it won't be until at least 2018.

Here's the scoop on the further delay. alanhart's bet looks like a winner at this point.

http://www.observer.com/2010/politics/feds-see-%E2%80%98grim%E2%80%99-delays-overruns-second-ave-subway-east-side-access

Minor adjustments and a hand deeper into the Fed's pocket, as appropriate. No problem. Although I still say they should've gone with four tracks.

alan, I feel you might enjoy this as much as I did (warning: pdf). It exists in a subway world where money is no object. If only...

http://sites.google.com/site/klewis511/Home/maps/OfficiallyFantasySubwayMap.pdf

I like the IND Montauk Line!

But still no subway service to Neponsit?

See also http://www.transitauthorityfigures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/Hamptons-BIG.jpg

does anyone...current second ave resident maybe? .... know how much noise to expect from the construction if u have an apt on say the 15th floor or so but right at 72nd st and 2nd ave? i am thinking of buying an apt there and am wondering if the fear of terrible noise is exaggerated if u live on a relative high floor, but right at 72nd and 2nd ave, where one of the stops is being built.

gpan, I have attended board meetings discussing the 2nd Ave subway. Contact me if you would like help researching the subway project. I know more blasting is expected, we got a memo about it, and blasting you feel throughout the building. But remember, construction isn't forever, and I do think there's an obscure little building called the Dakota that manages just fine with a subway entrance.

Karla Harby
Rutenberg Realty
kharby@crrnyc.com

The combination of subway entrance and storefront businesses will make 72/2 much worse than 72/CPW -- lots more lingering, etc. 77/Lex is a better comparison.

Also, I knew someone who lived on the 16th floor above an IND station, and could hear from her apartment the ding-dong warning that the doors are closing. Easily ignorable once you're used to it, but still quite amazing, I think.

Still, I'd love the convenience of living right at a station, so none of that activity on the 2nd Ave. subway, including blasting and other construction, would be a dealbreaker for me.

Soon tropical royalty will occupy the cross roads of this once tranquil hamlet. Tube steaks comprised of the flesh of unimagined mammals will commingle with concoctions of papaya and mango. The soothing glow of neon cast into the intersection of 72nd and Second will proclaim the name of our new king.

The Emporia has no cloths but he make one hell of a hotdog at 3am.
Home Run for you sir?

Hail, Hail, Papaya King!
You are benevolent and delicious.

Real Estate value on the the rise for Upper East Side by 2014. As construction of 2nd Avenue Subway comes closer to completion, realtors are seeing more request to purchase a home on the upper east sided. People that always wanted to live on the upper east side but shied away because of easy access to subway system are now starting to actively pursue and target buildings and units to purchase in the coming years. It seems that the target timeline for these prospective home buyers fall in 2014.