Employers Begin Rehiring the Laid Off:

Steve has always had the talent for explaining in such detail why he just lost a bunch more money.

What are you talking about, Ediot Wilson? I'm discussing unemployment, not your crashing longs in SSO.

"MISS: Initial Jobless JUMP TO 414K, Last Week Revised Higher"

"Initial jobless claims MISSED expectations, jumping 414K.

That's worse than the 405K that analysts had expected, and the upwardly revised 412K from last week."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-and-the-july-trade-deficit-2011-9

"The American Jobs Act"

"Here is the fact sheet for The American Jobs Act

Some of the major proposals (total is around $450 billion):

1) Payroll tax cuts (approx $240 billion):

* Cutting payroll taxes in half for 160 million workers next year: The President’s plan will expand the payroll tax cut passed last year to cut workers payroll taxes in half in 2012 ...

* Cutting the payroll tax in half for 98 percent of businesses: The President’s plan will cut in half the taxes paid by businesses on their first $5 million in payroll ...

2) Schools and teachers / aid to states (approx $60 billion):

* Preventing up to 280,000 teacher layoffs, while keeping cops and firefighters on the job.

* Modernizing at least 35,000 public schools across the country,supporting new science labs, Internet-ready classrooms and renovations at schools across the country, in rural and urban areas.

3) Other infrastructure ($75 billion)

4) Extend unemployment insurance benefits ($49 billion).

5) Helping More Americans Refinance Mortgages (there are no details yet). "The President has instructed his economic team to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, their regulator the FHFA, major lenders and industry leaders to remove the barriers that exist in the current refinancing program (HARP) to help more borrowers benefit from today’s historically low interest rates."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/american-jobs-act.html

I'm thrilled to work 12 hour days so that my taxes can keep folks on couches for an absurd 151 weeks, and to pay mortgages for those who couldn't afford their homes and should never have bought in the first place, all the while corporations are making record profits and paying no taxes, while the government is protecting my interests by blows up bridges in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Thank you.

"Bank of America Issues Statement on New BAC"

"Bank of America's goal is not a given number of job reductions, but rather implementation of New BAC decisions. As the decisions are implemented, employment levels in the areas under review during Phase I are expected to be reduced by approximately 30,000 jobs over the next few years. The company expects that attrition and the elimination of appropriate unfilled roles will be a significant part of the anticipated decrease in jobs. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-Issues-bw-230258477.html?x=0&.v=1

Whatever.

"Unemployment rises as city's recovery stalls"

"The city's unemployment rate in August ticked up to 8.7% from July's 8.6% as the local recovery continued to lose steam, the state Department of Labor reported Thursday.

The one-month rise itself was not a significant increase, but after the city's jobless rate fell every month for nearly a year starting in spring 2010, there have now been six consecutive months without a noticeable decline. Most of the drop in the rate from its 10% peak has come not from job gains but from discouraged job seekers leaving the workforce."

"The securities industry, commercial banking and insurance each lost 100 jobs last month, while real estate lost 500. For the year, Wall Street has now shed 1,100 jobs."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20110915/FREE/110919930

"$13.5M in sweeteners help NYC land 628 jobs"

"City and state funds help persuade London-based Pearson to add 270,000 square feet at Hudson Square, foiling an effort by New Jersey. The package could swell to $50 million with additional subsidies."

"The British media giant Pearson PLC is expanding its operation in Manhattan's Hudson Square neighborhood, bringing 628 jobs over the next three years from Upper Saddle River, N.J., with the help of millions of dollars in city and state incentives.

Pearson, whose holdings include Pearson Education, Penguin Books and the Financial Times, will move the jobs into 270,000 square feet of soon-to-be-renovated space at 330 Hudson St., which was once earmarked for a hotel. The positions, which will be added by the summer of 2014, have an average annual salary of $72,000."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20110919/REAL_ESTATE/110919897

Fifty million package divided by 628 is $79,617. So our tax dollars to the tune of eighty thousand dollars is paying for 628 jobs.

pulaski, i dont know how to respond to this. we can use the jobs. better they be here than in NJ or elsewhere, but these damned corps play us like violins, and often the jobs and all promised prove to be illusory

"Is It Virtually Impossible To Land A Job As "Jobs Hard To Get" Responses Hit 28 Year High"

"While the fact that the September Conference Board consumer confidence number missed in September, coming in at 45.4, below expectations of 45, and a tiny increase from the revised August 45.2, the shocker was in the responses to "jobs hard to get" category which printed at 50, up from 48.5 in August, and is now the highest number since 1983! Yet despite that it can not get a job to save its life, the public appears to have reverted to Hopium consumption, with the 6 month outlook jumping to 54 from 52.4, even as the current conditions index declines from 34.3 to 32.5, and the lowest since January."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-virtually-impossible-get-good-job-jobs-hard-get-index-hits-28-year-high

"New York Starts Laying Off 3,500 After Union Rejects Concessions"

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo started the process of laying off 3,500 workers last night after the state's second-largest employee union rejected wage and benefit concessions negotiated to balance New York's budget."

"Pink slips were mailed to 3,500 workers this morning, and the layoffs will take effect in 21 days."

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-starts-laying-off-3500-after-union-rejects-concessions-2011-9

I love this: "fine tune" = "fire"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44701918

And the beat goes on:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44698944

"ADP: Private Employment increased 91,000 in September"

"According to today’s ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 91,000 from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 90,000 in September, up slightly from an increase of 83,000 in August. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector rose a scant 1,000 in September, while manufacturing employment declined by 5,000.

“Like August, this month’s jobs report continues to show modest job creation,”

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/adp-private-employment-increased-91000.html

"Like August, this month’s jobs report continues to show modest job creation,”

I thought there were ZERO jobs created in August. WHat kind of dope is ADP smoking?

First, S, ADP is always wrong: they take their data from how many people are list on payrolls, whether or not they are actually paid. It's just a headcount. Then, they don't count government workers, who are being fired left, right, and. That's what makes the entire job picture so dismal.

To keep up just with the population, 300,000 net jobs would have to be created every month. We're not even close to that, and unemployment isn't showing up as bad as it really is merely because they don't count the underemployed, or those who stopped looking.

"government workers, who are being fired left, right"

A teabagger's dream come true.

Hey Socialist, the TWU is supporting the dirty facist communist hipster protesters. What do you think? At least the TWU runs the subway on time and safely, but the dirty facist hipsters, what do they do, why are they supported by the TWU?

"September NFP Prints At 103,000, Beats Consensus, Even As U-6 Comes At Highest Since December 2010, Manufacturing Jobs Lost"

"So much for the recession? September NFP prints at 103,000 on expectations of 60,000, with August revised to 57,000 from that roulette busting double zero. The unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, as expected. From the report: "The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. In September, job gainsoccurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction. Government employment continued to trend down." Average hourly earnings also came in line with expectations at 0.2%, with the previous revised from -0.1%, to -0.2%. Yet not all is good: manufacturing jobs declined by 13K on expectations of an unchanged number. And, oh yes, real unemployment, U6, printed up from 16.2% to 16.5%, the highest since December 2010."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-nfp-prints-103000-beats-consensus-even-u-6-comes-highest-december-2010-manufacturing-

Subtract Verizon, and you have a net gain of 58,000 jobs. Exactly the same as August. Better than nothing, but still nowhere near enough even to keep up with population growth.

The real figure is here: "Unemployment rose by 25,000 to 14.0 million for September, while employment rose 398,000 to 140 million. The labor force increased by 423,000 and some discouraged workers returned to the labor market."

According to the way the figures are calculated, "jobs were created." But actually, more people are unemployed than before. This headline is laughable: "Treasurys drop after strong payrolls report..."

After what?

Everything is pointing toward a slow slide into another recession. Sad, but true.

were all the protesters accounted for ?

You know, marco, something might actually become of those protesters. At first I thought it was silly, but they're starting to get some traction.

With the real unemployment rate running around 15%, we're starting to get to Depression levels. The few jobs that are being added are being added in the McDonald's sector. It's a real problem.

something very well could come of it.if theyre gonna make it , they need some leadership from the original hippies..and some $$ too

The Original Hippies all work at Goldman Sachs now.

hah...i saw a lot of em at the crosby stills concert back in august

What happened to Nash? Old Age Home?

"US Needs To Generate 261,200 Jobs Per Month To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term"

"And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 16.2 million jobs in the next 62 months? "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-needs-generate-261200-jobs-month-return-pre-depression-employment-end-obama-second-term

That's exactly what I said above: we're not even keeping up with population growth. Count also that in this month's figures about 20k temporary jobs were counted, and high-paying manufacturing jobs were replaced with low-paying McDonald's jobs, and there's a real issue.

European banks are on the brink of another Lehman Brothers, but worse: Dexia is already being taken apart, most of the German banks with exposure to Greece are owned by the provincial governments so guess who gets to capitalize them, and the write-downs will be huge. Counterparty risk is rising daily, and the ECB is already the main overnight lenders to European banks.

Musical chairs again, but on a much bigger scale, and I don't know if it can be stopped.

nash was there..i just didnt write him. he'd probably be pissed

The combination of low bonuses and WS layoffs isn't going to help the NY housing market. This isn't new information, but the government is taking note of the announced layoffs and the political problems it creates for elected officials. It seems that officials can't side with Occupy Wall Street without alienating one of the primary sources of revenue for the city--and for their re-election campaigns. Can you win an election with Labor/Union money alone?

"New York City's securities industry could lose nearly 10,000 jobs by the end of 2012, New York state's comptroller predicted, a painful blow to the area's economy and government budgets."

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it may cut 1,000 jobs or more, and Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays PLC have announced layoffs. In addition, Bank of America Corp. has said it plans to lay off 30,000 workers."

"The report also underscores the delicate position some of the region's politicians find themselves in as anger at the financial industry takes the form of street protests like the Occupy Wall Street encampment. Many protests are backed by powerful constituencies like organized labor, but those politicians are heavily reliant on revenue from Wall Street to balance their budgets and avoid painful cuts and tax increases.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204450804576623441287885726.html

"Move to China for a job? Unemployed cope by leaving US"

"For years, American jobs have been exported overseas, to places like China or India. Now we're exporting our people there, too.

"I just got tired of how the economy was going back home. I just figured things had to better somewhere else," said Francine, a former real estate agent in Las Vegas who recently moved to Xi'an, in central China, for work.

She has two jobs, but says her standard of living is a little bit better than when she left Nevada. "It's kind of ironic -- the middle class in China is growing while the middle class in America is shrinking."

http://redtape.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/10/8257389-move-to-china-for-a-job-unemployed-cope-by-leaving-us

Sad.

"Bloodbath At Goldman: Way More Layoffs In Securities And Investment Banking Than Originally Planned"

"Mass layoffs started in Goldman's London office last week, and it sounds like they're going to continue everywhere.

One source told us that Goldman Sachs plans to lay off up to 20% of its employees in investment banking and securities."

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-is-laying-off-20-in-securities-and-investment-banking-2011-10

Old news, move on, no effect.

gettin better...

"Food Stamps And The End Of The American Empire"

"Today, national figures for the SNAP (Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) were released and, once again, hit a new record.

Nearly 46 million Americans are now taking food stamps, and the growing numbers advanced at 8.1% over just the past year."

http://www.businessinsider.com/food-and-the-empire-2011-11

"gettin better" indeed... :/

wheres ur boy zerohedge on the adp numbers

"ADP Number Confirms Relentless Erosion In US Manufacturing Base"

"The October ADP Private Payrolls report, which is the butt of all jokes when it comes to accurate NFP predictive ability, has come and gone, printing at 110K on expectations of 100K, and down from a revised 116K in September. For those who actually care about the quality of jobs, services added 114K of the total 110K jobs, while good-producing jobs subtracted 4K, and manufacturing jobs as a subset declined by 8K. And then they complain that China is making everything in the world... "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-number-confirms-relentless-erosion-us-manufacturing-base

where's zerohedge ?

how bout those revisions ?

"Nearly 46 million Americans are now taking food stamps,"

50 million is around the corner.

it all doesn't matter

as long as the 1% still have good life, manhattan housing price will stand firm and stay insane forever

The riots are coming. The Oakland riots are a preview of the coming attraction.

"Nonfarm Payroll Increase Less Than Expected At +80K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 9.0% Vs 9.1% Consensus"

"Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down." While October missed consensus by 15K, September was revised from 103K to 158K. The change in private payrolls was +104K on expectations of 125K (down from an upward revised 191K), while manufacturing payrolls, or whatever is left of them, was +5K on expectations of +2K. The labor force participation ratio was flat at 64.2%, just off the 30 year low. What is truly hilarious, and what confirms the L should be permanently scrapped from the BLS is that the initial August NFP number of 0 has now been revised twice to 104,000 or whatever suites the US policy at the time."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nonfarm-payroll-increase-less-expected-80k-unemployment-rate-drops-90-vs-91-consensus

"268 NY Credit Suisse Employees Learn They Are About To Be Laid Off Via Department Of Labor Website"

"Remember the DOL's very appropriately named WARN website we noted some time ago which warns investment bankers they are about to be made redundant (at least someone is being honest)? Well, it may be time to refresh, especially if you work at Credit Suisse (and sorrry, no bumping rights - should have thought about that before joining a non-union job)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/268-ny-credit-suisse-employees-learn-they-are-about-be-laid-department-labor-website

"ADP Payroll Print Of 206,000 Comes 4 Standard Deviations Higher Than 130,000 Consensus, Above Highest Wall Street Estimate"

"The global coordinated "feel good" rally is out in full force. First China, next Fed global bail out, and now ADP confirming that massive banker layoffs are actually beneficial, reporting a 206,000 increase in private payrolls in November. This compares to a consensus estimate of 132,000, and is above the highest Wall Street forecast of 200,000. In other words, first we get record volatility in the markets, and now we get record upside volatility in economic data after this number comes 4 standard deviations above consensus! More: "The increase in November was the largest monthly gain since last December and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply." Of course, this is not to say that America is actually making anything: "Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 178,000 in November, which is up from an increase of 130,000 in October. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 28,000 in November, while manufacturing employment increased 7,000." Still, surely, the unemployed among the 99% will be delighted to know they were actually working all along. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-payroll-print-206000-comes-4-std-devs-higher-130000-consensus-above-highest-wall-street-est

"November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate"

"The U.S. gained 120,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 9.0%, the Labor Department said Friday. The government also revised jobs data for October and September to show that 72,000 additional jobs were created. ... Hiring in October was revised up to 100,000 from 80,000 and the job gains in September were revised up to 210,00 from 158,000. In November, companies in the private sector hired 140,000 workers ... Government cut 20,000 jobs..."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/november-employment-report-120000-jobs.html

Let's see if it holds. How do they count temporary workers? How do they count the people who maxed out their unemployment and are not working?

gettin better

"Key Charts From The NFP Report: Records In Jobless Duration And People Who Want A Job As Civilian Labor Force Plunges"

"Here are the four most important data points and charts from today's job report: the civilian labor force declined from 154,198 to 153,883, a 315K decline despite the civilian non-institutional population increased (as expected) from 240,269 to 240,441: always the easiest way to push down the unemployment rate. Percentage wise this was a drop from 64.2% to 64.0%: the lowest since back in 1983. Naturally, this would mean that the people not part of the labor force rose, and indeed they did by 487,000 to a record 86,558 from 86,071. This also means that more people are looking for a job: and indeed, the number of "Persons who want a job now" rose by 192K to a record 6.595 million. And lastly, confirming the behind the scenes disaster of the US jobless picture, the average duration of unemployment rose to a new record 40.9 weeks from 39.4 weeks previously. And that is your "improving" jobless picture in a nutshell."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/key-charts-nfp-report-records-jobless-duration-and-people-who-want-job-civilian-labor-force-plu

It's not getting better.

Ok - so the rate fell largely because 315,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

What a disaster. I can't wait for Obama to spin this.

ur boy zerohedge only gives half the picture always..private sector payrolls have been revise higherin the last 6 months for an average +34k / month..the underemployment rate also improved.

Payrolls Rose in 29 U.S. States in November, Led by New York 2011-12-20 15:32:45.564 GMT

By Bob Willis
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Payrolls increased in 29 states in November, while the jobless rate declined in 43, a sign the labor market is recovering across much of the U.S.
New York led the nation with a 29,500 gain in jobs, followed by Texas with 20,800, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The biggest drop in unemployment was in Michigan, where the jobless rate fell 0.8 percentage point to
9.8 percent.
“We’re seeing a modest recovery in hiring across much of the country,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “There are a few hot spots where activity is stronger.”
The improvement comes as lawmakers in Congress remained deadlocked over extending a payroll tax cut and long-term unemployment benefits by an end-of-year deadline. U.S. employers added 120,000 workers in November and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March 2009, the Labor Department reported Dec. 2.
The unemployment rates in Alabama, Minnesota, South Carolina and Utah dropped by 0.6 a percentage point each in November, marking the second-biggest declines statistically.
Nevada’s jobless rate dropped to 13 percent from 13.4 percent in October, still leaving it as the highest in the U.S.
California followed at 11.3 percent. North Dakota had the lowest unemployment at 3.4 percent.

Economic Growth

The economy expanded at a 2 percent pace in the third quarter, revised government data showed last month. That following an average 0.9 percent rate of growth in the first half of the year.
The biggest payroll losses last month were in Wisconsin, where employment dropped by 14,600, and Minnesota, which showed a loss of 13,700 jobs.
The jobless rate in Michigan has dropped 1.6 percentage points over the past 12 months, which may in part reflect a rebound in auto making.
Ford Motor Co. has agreed to create 12,000 jobs, invest
$6.2 billion in factory upgrades and give each of its 40,600 U.S. workers as much as $10,000 in bonus and profit-sharing payments this year.
State and local employment data are derived independently from the national statistics, which are typically released on the first Friday of every month. The state figures are subject to larger sampling errors because they come from smaller surveys, making the national figures more reliable, according to the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Ppl like Marco will give cover for bernie to raise zero rate to 200 to 300 bps. Making mortgages 7%. But no worries mate, cause by law all homeowners are allowed to jack up rents to ensure they remain the landed gentry.

Date rape me now!

w67thstreet
about 6 hours ago
ignore this person
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>Date rape me now!

After hearing from you about the "thousands of people who have touched [your] wife," I think it would be safer for the prospective date rapist to avoid all of the diseases that you probably come with.

"580 Morgan Stanley Soon To Be Former-Employees Learn They Are Redundant Courtesy Of The Dept Of Labor"

"Previously it was Credit Suisse and Citigroup. Now it is Morgan Stanley's turn, as 580 employees in the firm's three New York office learn they are about to get the boot courtesy not of the HR department but the DOL's WARN website, which just happens to be the best real-time indicator for observing the transition of the soon to be former 1% into the 99%."

Date of Notice: 12/27/2011
Reason Stated for Filing: Plant Layoffs
Company:
Morgan Stanley (Various NYC sites)
1221 Avenue of Americas

Other Morgan Stanley locations affected:
1 New York Plaza, New York, NY
1585 Broadway, New York, NY
750 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/580-morgan-stanley-soon-be-former-employees-learn-they-are-redundant-courtesy-dept-labor

Ah yes, the WARN Act.

zerohedge ??

Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate

One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people "drop out" of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population.

In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate. To get that we used the average rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8% (chart 1). We then apply this participation rate to the civilian noninstitutional population to get what an "implied" labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed (chart 2). Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data.

It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) - basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-jobless-rate-114-realistic-labor-force-participation-rate

Lol! Pulaski, you beat me to it!

so the last 15 months havent seen positive creation for 2.056mm jobs ?

So is the implication supposed to be that the BLS is calculating the participation rate differently than they have in the past? That doesn't seem to be part of the argument, and without it it's hard to see the conspiracy theory.

"The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers."

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

U6 = 22.5% or thereabout.

>In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate.

Does this realistic labor force participation rate take into account that we've become an entitlement society and so the option to not participate in the labor force is relatively more attractive than it was in the past?

No, u6 dropped by even more

"...The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% in December, while a broader measure dropped even further to 15.2% from 15.6% the prior month, both at their lowest levels since February 2009....

...Meanwhile, the broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, dropped by a 0.4 percentage point last month. The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find.

The key to the drop in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 371,000 drop in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work, that comes on top of big drops in that category over the past two months. That number could reflect people having their hours increased or part-time workers moving on to full time work..."

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/01/06/unemployment-rate-drop-is-for-real/

Its utterly disengenuous to include people NOT AT ALL in the labour force, since the labor participation rate has dropped rather steadily since the 60s, other than a brief blip up in the late 90s. If you kept a TOTALLy static definition or "worker" from 1945 onward like pulaski maintains, Reagan had at LEAST 25% unemployment for most of his term. Which is silly. In all advanced economies, less people work as a percent of those 18-54 than 30 or 50 or especially 100 years ago. Like 20-30 percentage points fewer.

So you agree with my point on the entitlement society.

While Jason's comments are statistically true, there is a difference between people choosing to not work due to being happy with their quality of life (which is what I think you are implying is the standard long term trend for advanced economies) and people choosing not to work because they have capitulated and feel that they can not find work. In today's environment there is the feeling of many people just giving up. That is not a healthy reduction of employment participation. It could also be said that if the trend for advanced economies is to lead toward lower employment participation that can easily explain why cultures do not remain dominant indefinitely. Entitlements which allow individuals to become content with their situation will eventually lead to a less competitive economy. We were hungry 100 to 150 years ago. Maybe these decades will make us hungry again.

"Entitlements which allow individuals to become content with their situation will eventually lead to a less competitive economy."

People keep saying silly things like this, completely failing to recognize that government assistance for working age adults is significantly less generous than it was 20 years ago, so if this were leading to decreased workforce participation then you'd expect it to be less of an effect over time rather than more.

"Nearly 3 Million New Yorkers With College Degrees Can Barely Afford Food"

"Nearly 3 million college-educated New Yorkers report having difficulty affording food, according to a new report by the Food Bank For New York City.

One in three expressed concerns that they might need assistance, a stat that's increased 6 points for those with bachelor's degrees and from 2 points for those with graduate degrees.

The number of affected residents making between $50,000 and $75,000—and therefore not eligible for food assistance programs—increased by 6 percent."

http://www.businessinsider.com/college-educated-new-yorkers-are-struggling-to-afford-food-2012-1

"Nearly 3 Million New Yorkers With College Degrees Can Barely Afford Food"

why they didn't support the democratic movement couple months ago? they got what they want, period

"Irrelevant ADP Report Gyrates Epileptically, Misses Expectations, Sees 9,000 Financial Jobs Added In January"

"The highly irrelevant economic noise that is the ADP private payrolls indicator has come in form the month of January, and printed at nearly half of the December number of 325K, which was revised lower to 292K, at 170K, on expectations of 182K. We should be the last to tell readers that anything this unbearably noisy series says is beyond meaningless, but since someone follows it, it bears noting that this was the weakest number since October 2011.

Furthermore, with the NFP virtually guaranteed to be a miss for a variety of reasons, this is merely the latest confirmation that economist expectations of the economic recovery ramping up, were short sighted - after all the Chairman has an agenda. Yet what makes this report a total mockery is that in the month in which banks, and the FIRE industry in general, was firing left and right, ADP saw 9K people in financial services added to private payrolls.

Ironically the financial jobs "added" were almost as many as the manufacturing jobs, at +10K in January. Who says America is not a manufacturing juggernaut and only exports weapons of financial mass destruction?"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/irrelevant-adp-report-gyrates-epileptically-misses-expectations-sees-9000-financial-jobs-added-

zerohedge??

"U.S. Jobless Rate Drops to 8.3% 9:18 AM
Employment climbed more than forecast in January in a positive sign for the economic recovery.."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-03/payrolls-in-u-s-jump-243-000-unemployment-drops-to-8-3-.html

Even the Obama haters on CNBC and in the WSJ are saying its hard for bears to find anything negative in this. But I am sure the bears on this board will show us how jobs really decreased by 5 million.

"Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low"

"A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-

roar... :)

pulaski

Did you read the report? Or do you let others read it and spin it for you? Saying "Record 1.2 million people fall out of labor force in one month" is misleading at best, and really just incorrect analysis. In the last report those people were not in the labor force or out of it. The January report uses updated population data that caused the large increase in the civilian labor force, employed, unemployed, and persons not in the labor force.

From the report

"Effective with data for January 2012, updated population estimates
which reflect the results of Census 2010 have been used in the
household survey. "

"The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian
noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,000, the civilian
labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000,
and persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000. Although the total
unemployment rate was unaffected, the labor force participation rate
and the employment-population ratio were each reduced by 0.3
percentage point. This was because the population increase was
primarily among persons 55 and older"

Everyone knows the WSJ is just a shill for the Socialist Muslim administration:

"...Under the government’s definitions, people only count as unemployed when they’re actively looking for work. So when the unemployment rate drops, it could mean that unemployed people found jobs, or it could mean that they gave up looking for work. The employment-population ratio, which measures how many people are actually working, is harder to fool.

Today’s jobs report carries good news on both fronts. The unemployment rate fell, and the employment-population ratio rose. That means the improvement in the labor market is real — people actually found jobs..."

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/02/03/whats-behind-the-unemployment-rate-drop/

More from that left-wing manifesto, the WSJ:

"...Here’s what happened: According to the Census Bureau, the civilian population grew by 1.5 million people in 2011. But the growth wasn’t distributed evenly. Most of the growth came among people 55 and older and, to a lesser degree, by people 16-24 years old. Both groups are less likely to work than people in their mid-20s to early 50s. So the share of the population that’s working is actually lower than previously believed. Taking that into account, the employment-population ratio went up. The unemployment rate wasn’t affected..."

“There was not a big increase in discouraged workers,” economist Betsey Stevenson commented on Twitter. “What happened was Census found a bunch of old people we had assumed died.”

"Goldman: No Labor Force Participation Rebound in Sight"

"In a research note released last night, Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn looked at the population revisions from the 2010 Census and argued that there is "No Labor Force Participation Rebound in Sight".

This is a key point. Some of the recent decline in the participation rate was expected due to demographics (mostly aging of the population), but most analysts expected some rebound in the participation rate this year as the economy (hopefully) improves. Goldman is now expecting the participation rate to stay flat through 2013. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/goldman-no-labor-force-participation.html

pulaski, you love to quote from things out of context. Stehn would likely disagree with every single post you have made in terms of actual action the Fed or government should take. He would say the US should borrow as much as it can now, while real interest rates are below zero, and spend hundreds of billions (at least) on infrastructure. He's also on record saying the Fed is not doing ENOUGH.

You sure this is who you want to use as an authority?

For example...

http://www.scribd.com/doc/69165529/Goldman-Sachs-Recommends-Fed-Boost-the-Economy

"A "Quality Assessment" Of US Jobs Reveals The Ugliest Picture Yet"

"Over the past week we have repeatedly exposed the BLS' shennanigans to both keep the headline unemployment rate suppressed and to generate an upward bias in the market courtesy of a "bigger than expected beat" of expectations. Granted, various semantics experts continue to scratch their heads in attempting to explain a collapsing labor force when even Goldman's Sven Jari Stehn just predicted that it will drop to 63.1% by the end of 2012 (and 62.5% by the end of 2015). Funny then that the US will have no unemployment left when the participation rate drops to 58.5%. And no, the "population soared argument based on revised data" doesn't quite cut it when the bulk of said surge not only did not get a job, but was not even counted toward the labor force. Yet what the biggest flaw with all these arguments that vainly (and veinly) attempt to defend the US economy as if it is growing, is that they focus exclusively on the quantity of jobs, doctored or not, and completely ignore the quality. We have decided to step in and fill this void."

" The 130.456MM workers "employed" at January 31, 2011 created a total of $592.985MM in withholdings, or on average of $4,545.48 per worker over the first 4 months of the fiscal year 2011.
The 132.409MM workers "employed" at January 31, 2012 created a total of $592.675MM in withholdings, or on average of $4,476.09 per worker over the first 4 months of the fiscal year 2012.

Translation: based on the above, even as America was "creating" jobs, 2 million to be precise (and 2.5 million between Sept 30, 2010 and January 31, 2012), the government tax revenues created by these jobs actually declined in 2012 compared to 2011, on a per job basis, by roughly 1.5%! "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quality-assessment-us-jobs-reveals-ugliest-picture-yet

:)

Is FICA included in the comparison between fiscal 2011 vs. 2012 withholdings? If so, does it account for the higher FICA i the first 3 months of fiscal 2011?

Ok Pulaski, its a Grand Conspiracy to cook the books. Its sad that your fringe web sites resort to such bull shit when their apocalyptic prophesies do not bear fruit.

"U.S. Job Openings Increase By Most In Almost A Year | Following on the heels of a strong jobs report in January, the Labor Department reported today that job openings in December increased by the most in almost a year. Excluding government jobs, openings saw their biggest increase since April 2008. Bloomberg News noted that “more openings mean companies may be looking beyond the European financial crisis and are making plans to expand this year as sales grow.”

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/02/07/420640/job-openings-year/

Also, the ADP payroll numbers show essentially the same thing the BLS stats show. ADP is in on the conspiracy !!!!!!!

http://www.adp.com/media/press-releases/2012-press-releases/us-private-sector-employment-increased-by-170000-jobs-in-january-according-to-adp-ner.aspx

http://www.adp.com/media/press-releases/2012-press-releases/us-private-sector-employment-increased-by-325000-jobs-in-december-according-to-adp-ner.aspx

Also the government lowered FICA starting in 2011, idiot.

lol..i was gonna wouldnt the payroll tax cut have an affect here.

by the way auto manufacturers are adding employees becuase the US is increasing exports.

oh marco, just relax---youre so damn blinded by ownership of your UES studio----just accept that it will triple in value over the next couple of years, and try to be have a shred of objectivity in the meantime

1br thanks.

Wow, not only is ADP and the CAREER (not political appointees - CAREER) BLS people colluding, but the Wall Street Journal, Toyota, Union Pacific, United Technologies, Deutsche Bank, and God knows who else! Its a GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"U.S. Market Shines Brighter
Manufacturers Look Homeward, Boosting Domestic Production and Spending as Overseas Gains Overseas..."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577209511105401168.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

"Toyota to Shift Highlander Hybrid Production to U.S. From Japan..."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204136404577211253219989094.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Oh. My. GOD!!!! The American people are in on the cospiracy too!!!!!!!!!

"...Economic confidence increasing, Gallup finds...Americans are growing more confident in the ability of the economy to improve, data released Tuesday by Gallup reveals.

This is the fifth straight month of rising confidence..."

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/209085-economic-confidence-increasing-gallup-finds

"...Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose more than forecast in December, driven by demand for auto and student loans.

Credit increased by $19.3 billion to $2.5 trillion, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The gain topped the $7 billion median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a $20.4 billion advance the prior month.

Consumers “are willing to take on this debt because there is some increasing degree of confidence in the economy,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio, who projected credit would climb by $15 billion, the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “Consumers over the past several years have done a pretty good job of repairing their balance sheets.” ..."

OH. MY. GOD!!!! Pulaski, the Fed, Bloomberg news, this random economist, and consumers (ALL OF THEM!!!) are also in on this cook-the-books conspiracy you have uncovered!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"MORE GOOD NEWS: Initial Claims Beat Expectations, Falling To 358K"

"Another good number.

Initial jobless claims fell to 358K from a revised 373K last week.

That's better than the 370K that analysts were expected.

All around good news..."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-february-9-2012-2#ixzz1ltyk5Ctc

wheres zerohedge on todays job #'s ?

Zero hedge will say its more cooking the books.

"The Truth About Long-Term Unemployment In America"

"Most people don't understand how someone could fail to find a job for over a year unless he was lazy or somehow defective.

This stigma means that finding a job becomes harder every day that a person has been unemployed.

Nearly four million Americans have been unemployed for over a year. Millions more are not counted because they have given up looking for work, retiring or taking a part-time job.

We interviewed some of the long-term unemployed to see what they've been doing for the past year. Every one of them is just as shocked as you that unemployment could last this long."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-truth-about-long-term-unemployment-in-america-2012-2

zerohedge ? 4 week moving average of weekly claims lowest since march 2008.

Unemployment could be 5% and the bears will still be crying about faked numbers.

>Unemployment could be 5%

Is this some sort of videogame or theoretical exercise for you?

"NFP Prints At 227K On Expectations Of 210,000, Unemployment Rate At 8.3% Boosted By Temp Jobs"

"NFP 227,000 on expectations of 210,000; Previous revised from 243K to 284K; Unemployment Rate (U-3%) at 8.3%, U-6 at 14.9%. While for the first time in a long time those not in the labor force declined (from 87,874 to 87,564) and the participation rate rose as a result from 63.7% to 63.9%, here is what the market is focusing on currently: "Professional and business services added 82,000 jobs in February. Just over half of the increase occurred in temporary help services (+45,000)." Also, that Birth Death added 91K is also taking away from the lustre of the headline which is diamtetrically opposite of what Reuters has found. The market reaction is one indicative of the realization that QE3 may have been delayed once again, and this time substantially."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-prints-227k-expectations-210000-unemployment-rate-83

"Job Growth In New York City Is Blowing Everyone's Mind"

"( ) the NYC economy added more jobs in January than in any month in 23 years.

Some 31,200 jobs were added in the month, according to a seasonally adjusted analysis of new state Labor Department figures.

"It is an understatement to say that these gains exceeded all expectations," said Barbara Byrne Denham, chief economist with the real-estate services firm Eastern Consolidated, who conducted the analysis."

"However, the city’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.3 percent in January 2012, up from December’s 9.1 percent and 8.9 percent in January 2011. Byrne Denham says more analysis is needed to explain the increase despite such dramatic job gains."

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-job-growth-2012-3