Corcoran - Manhattan Down 4% QoQ, why all the numbers so different?
Started by nyc10022
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Discussion about
How are all these guys so far off? http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-3q-manhattan-real-estate-market-reports.html Average sale price 1) Elliman: $1.323M - Down 10% from last year, up 0.8% from last quarter 2) Corcoran: $1.282M - Down 16% from last year, down 11% from last quarter 3) Halstead/Brown Harris Stevens: $1.274 million - Down 13% from last year, flat over last quarter... [more]
How are all these guys so far off?
http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-3q-manhattan-real-estate-market-reports.html
Average sale price
1) Elliman: $1.323M - Down 10% from last year, up 0.8% from last quarter
2) Corcoran: $1.282M - Down 16% from last year, down 11% from last quarter
3) Halstead/Brown Harris Stevens: $1.274 million - Down 13% from last year, flat over last quarter
Median sale price
1) Elliman: $850,000 - Down 8.4% from last year, up 1.7% from last quarter
2) Corcoran: $799,000 - Down 18% from last year, down 4% from last quarter
3) Halstead/BHS: $781,000 - Down 14% from last year, down 1.7% from last quarter
Number of sales
1) Elliman: Down 16% from last year, up 45.6% from last quarter
2) Corcoran: Down 38% from last year, up 16% from last quarter
3) Halstead/BHS: Down 25% from last year
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Response by mutombonyc
about 16 years ago
Posts: 2468
Member since: Dec 2008
Because B. Corcoran still believes "There has not been a better time to buy". LOL.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009
"Number of sales
1) Elliman: Down 16% from last year, up 45.6% from last quarter
2) Corcoran: Down 38% from last year, up 16% from last quarter
3) Halstead/BHS: Down 25% from last year "
From both QOQ and YOY, their volume is down much more, so obviously they are looking at different sales. Easy to end up with different averages, medians, etc. with much smaller sample size. And while not always true, a smaller sample size would tend to lead to worse/less accurate/more "variable" (as in larger tolerance/confidence banding)
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Response by maly
about 16 years ago
Posts: 1377
Member since: Jan 2009
Add the 3 numbers weighted by their market share, and you would get a pretty respectable estimate. Anyone know each of these firms' share?
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009
Not sure you can do that: aren't the Elliman numbers really Miller-Samuel numbers?
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Because B. Corcoran still believes "There has not been a better time to buy". LOL.
"Number of sales
1) Elliman: Down 16% from last year, up 45.6% from last quarter
2) Corcoran: Down 38% from last year, up 16% from last quarter
3) Halstead/BHS: Down 25% from last year "
From both QOQ and YOY, their volume is down much more, so obviously they are looking at different sales. Easy to end up with different averages, medians, etc. with much smaller sample size. And while not always true, a smaller sample size would tend to lead to worse/less accurate/more "variable" (as in larger tolerance/confidence banding)
Add the 3 numbers weighted by their market share, and you would get a pretty respectable estimate. Anyone know each of these firms' share?
Not sure you can do that: aren't the Elliman numbers really Miller-Samuel numbers?